＃title＃ 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 食品饮料 周专题：啤酒韧性仍在，依然是攻守兼备主线 ＃investSuggestion＃ 推荐 ＃ investSuggestionC hange＃ （维持） 行 业 周 报 ＃createTime1＃ | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------|-----------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 房地产 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|---------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

＃研究助理： assAuthor＃ 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 计算机 ＃ investSuggestionCha 维持nge＃ ） ＃ investSuggesti 推荐on＃ ( 行 业 投 资 策 略 报 告 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|---------| | | | | 重点公司 重点公司 | 评级 | | ＃ relatedReport 金山办公 | ＃ 增持 | | 达梦数据 | 增持 | | 中国软件 | 增持 | | 海光信息 | 增持 | | 神州数码 | 增持 | | 恒生电子 | 增持 | | 同花顺 | 增持 | | 指南针 | 增持 | | 新大陆 | 增持 | | 中控技术 | 增持 | | 太极股份 | 增持 | | 卫宁健康 | 增持 | | 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 | | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------- ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 传媒 推荐＃investSuggestion＃ （维持） ＃title＃ 传媒行业 2025 年度投资策略： AI、谷子、并购的三重奏，传媒有望迎来黄金时代 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 12 月 16 日 行 业 投 资 策 略 报 告 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-----------| | | | | 重点公司 | 评级 | | 恺英网络 | 增持 | | 姚记科技 | 增持 | | 万达电影 | 增持 | | 横店影视 | 增持 | | 光线传媒 | 增持 | | 易点天下 | 增持 | | 华策影视 | 增持 | | 中文在线 | 增持 | | 昆仑万维 | 增持 | | 芒果超媒 | 买入 | | 分众传媒 皖新传媒 | 增持 增持 | | 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 | | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证传媒】传媒行业：第三 轮底部反转启动，AI+并购有望 带动传媒进入黄金时期——基 于传媒指数历史复盘》 《【兴证传媒】传媒行业 2024 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **Overweight** rating for the real estate industry, with a focus on leading companies in the sector [1][6] Core Views - The real estate industry is expected to benefit from a **loose internal and external environment** in 2025, with domestic policy relaxation and potential US interest rate cuts improving liquidity and financing conditions [2][6] - The **supply-demand structure** of the industry is expected to optimize, with reduced new housing supply due to financial constraints on private developers and government land reserves, while policy relaxation and interest rate cuts are expected to release demand [2][6] - Leading state-owned developers are expected to benefit from **policy relaxation**, with improved profit margins and stable dividends due to their focus on core cities and strong product premium capabilities [3][6] - The **property management sector** is expected to see stable dividend growth and steady net profit growth, with leading companies like CR Mixc Lifestyle and Greentown Service recommended for their strong cash positions and shareholder returns [3][6] - **Hong Kong local stocks** are expected to maintain stable dividend yields in 2025, with companies like CK Infrastructure and Swire Properties benefiting from diversified business layouts and low financial leverage [4][6] Key Company Recommendations - **Beike**: Recommended as a leading real estate transaction service platform benefiting from increased housing transaction volume and market share [3][6] - **CR Land, COLI, Greentown China, Yuexiu Property, and Poly Property Group**: Recommended for their financial security, high-quality land reserves, and stable performance and dividends [3][6] - **CR Mixc Lifestyle**: Recommended as a leading commercial management company expected to benefit from improved consumer demand and operational indicators in 2025 [3][6] - **Greentown Service, Poly Property Services, China Overseas Property Services, and Yuexiu Services**: Recommended for their stable and increasing dividends and steady net profit growth [3][6] - **CK Infrastructure, Swire Properties, and Kerry Properties**: Recommended for their stable dividend income and low financial leverage [4][6] Industry Trends and Data - **Policy-driven market recovery**: Historical data shows that policy relaxation has consistently led to a recovery in the real estate market, with significant increases in housing sales and developer performance [33][34] - **Sales data improvement**: In 2024, sales data for major listed companies showed a gradual improvement, particularly after policy adjustments in September and October, with a 19.9% year-on-year increase in sales area in November [34][38] - **Land acquisition and supply**: State-owned developers like Poly Development, CR Land, and Greentown China are leading in land acquisition, with their land reserves concentrated in core first and second-tier cities [53][54] - **Debt restructuring for private developers**: Private developers like Sunac and CIFI are focusing on debt restructuring, with significant progress in reducing debt through bond conversions and asset sales [59][62] Property Management Sector - **Fund holdings**: In 2024, public funds have concentrated their holdings in leading property management companies like CR Mixc Lifestyle, Poly Property Services, and China Overseas Property Services, which offer stable dividends and steady profit growth [71][72] - **Consumer demand recovery**: With the promotion of consumption policies in 2025, leading commercial management companies are expected to benefit from improved rental income and asset value [72][73] - **Receivables management**: Property management companies are expected to see improved collection rates in 2025, driven by a recovery in consumer confidence and government spending [78][79] Hong Kong Local Stocks - **Policy-driven performance**: Hong Kong local stocks have shown strong performance in response to policy changes, such as the "spicy withdrawal" policy in February 2024 and the "stabilization" policy in September 2024 [109][110] - **Dividend stability**: Hong Kong local stocks are expected to maintain stable dividend yields in 2025, supported by diversified business layouts and low financial leverage [110][111] - **Non-development business contributions**: In 2025, non-development businesses, particularly investment properties, are expected to remain the main contributors to profits and cash flow for Hong Kong local companies [117][118]

研 ＃title＃ 史一粟 朱理显 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 环保 shiyisu@xyzq.com.cn S0190523110001 本期（12.9-12.13）板块行情：上证综指下跌 0.36%，深证成指下跌 0.73%，创 业板指下跌 1.40%。A 股环保板块指数下跌 1.19%，子板块固体废物处理及资 源化利用、大气治理、环卫、水务及水处理、环境监测及其他环保装备、综合 环境治理的涨跌幅分别为-0.61%，+1.46%，+0.03%，-2.04%，-2.05%，-1.98%。 H 股环保板块指数上涨 9.19%。截至 2024 年 12 月 13 日收盘，A 股环保板块 PE（TTM）估值 19 倍。 ＃研a究ss助Au理th：or＃ 国常会研究黄河流域生态保护有关工作 ＃ investSugges tion＃ 推荐 ( ＃ investSuggestionC hange＃ （维持） ） ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 12 月 15 日 行 不 周 周 ＃相关rel报ate告dReport＃ 投资要点 ＃重s要um数ma据ry跟＃ 踪：（1）碳市场：2024 年 12 ...

行 ＃title＃ 科博达 增持 行 बार 报 周 yupengliang@xyzq.com.cn S0190524030006 于鹏亮 ＃相关rel报ate告dReport＃ 《【兴证汽车】周动态：明年汽车 以旧换新政策有望延续，10 月新能 源 重 卡 整 体 销 量 再 创 新 高 》 2024-11-25 《【兴证汽车】周动态：广州车展 开幕，10 月乘用车产销同环比高增 长》2024-11-18 《【兴证汽车】周动态：小鹏 P7+ 上市，特斯拉成为首批获得"汽车隐 私保护"标识的车企》2024-11-10 董晓彬 dongxiaobin@xyzq.com.cn S0190520080001 wangkaili@xyzq.com.cn S0190522070001 liuxinyao@xyzq.com.cn S0190524070005 ssAuthor＃ 研究助理： 刘思仪 liusiyi23@xyzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 汽车 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|--------------- ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 农林牧渔 ＃ investSuggestionC (维持hange ) ＃ ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃ 行 业 投 资 策 略 报 告 | --- | --- | |----------|-------| | | | | 重点公司 | 评级 | | 海大集团 | 买入 | | 温氏股份 | 增持 | | 牧原股份 | 增持 | | 立华股份 | 增持 | | 科前生物 | 增持 | 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证农业】周报：猪价稳中 震荡，糖价有所回落》2024- 12-01 《【兴证农业】周报：毛鸡价格 上涨，橡胶价格有所回落》 2024-11-17 《【兴证农业】周报：猪价震荡 下跌，鸡苗价格高位运行》 2024-11-10 ＃分析师： emailAuthor ＃ 纪宇泽 jiyuze@xyzq.com.cn S0190522080004 曹心蕊 caoxinrui@xyzq.com.cn S0190521050002 潘江滢 panjiangying@xyzq.com.cn S0 ...

行 北 研 行 नार 周 周 究 ＃title＃ | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------|---------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

＃title＃ ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 公用事业 坚持"长期主义"长持价值，关注能源转型卡口环节 ＃ investSuggest ion＃ 推荐 ( ＃ investSuggestionCh ange＃ （维持） ） 行 业 投 资 策 略 报 告 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 12 月 15 日 投资要点 ＃⚫summary 年度复盘： ＃ 公用环保行业阶段性跑输市场，市场风格影响显著。年初至 11 月 28 日，公用事业、环保行业分别跑输沪深 300 指数 5.21pct、6.43pct，在 31 个申万行业 中位列中游。但回顾行情走势可发现，公用事业行业在 9 月 27 日之前基本保持对沪 深 300 指数的正向超额收益率，市场风格对于板块走势影响显著。定价思路的更迭主 导了各细分行业相对涨幅，在当前仍偏预期反转与边际改善的思路下，我们认为新 型电力系统建设依然是最大产业趋势，同时也应重视央国企并购重组和地方政府化 债在各细分板块中带来的投资机会；而作为"类债资产"典范的水电、核电依旧具 备"长期主义"的持有价值。 ⚫ ...