行业点评报告 | 交通运输 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 20 日 | 相关研究 【兴证交运】交通运输行业周报 （2025.02.09 - 02.15）——美国制裁持 续发力见效；春运旅客总量同比增长 7.2%-2025.02.16 【兴证交运】交通运输行业周报 （2025.02.02 - 02.07）——美国对伊制 裁提振油轮供需，春节假期快递业务量 增长显著-2025.02.09 【兴证交运】油轮板块点评 （2025.02.05）——美国准备制裁伊 朗，油轮供需有望再获提振-2025.02.05 分析师：胡杉 S0190524080004 hushan@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：郭军 S0190524110002 guojun1@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张晓云 S0190514070002 zhangxiaoyun@xyzq.com.cn 2025 年 1 月快递月报： 继续看好 2025 年行业需求，建议关注业绩弹 性标的 投资要点： ⚫ 事件：各快递公司公告 2025 年 1 月运营数据。 附表 | ...

行业跟踪报告 | 电子 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 20 日 | 相关研究 【兴证电子】Deepseek 拉动推理需求爆 发，服务器架构创新催生 PTFE PCB 需 求-2025.02.18 【兴证海外 TMT】小米手机：AI 手机二 次点火-2025.02.17 【兴证电子】周报：中芯国际业绩会指 引乐观，看好端侧 AI 硬件创新浪潮和算 力架构创新-2025.02.16 分析师：姚康 S0190520080007 yaokang@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：仇文妍 S0190520050001 qiuwenyan@xyzq.com.cn 创新 AI 交互载体，AR 眼镜快速发展 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/23 ⚫ AI 引领，百镜大战将至。AR 眼镜是一种兼具增强现实（AR）显示功能与眼镜形态的 新型可穿戴设备，具有显示、虚实融合、轻便等特征。AI 赋能，各大厂商的 AI/AR 眼 镜产品如雨后春笋般涌现。自 2023 年 9 月，Ray-Ban Meta 智能眼镜正式发布打响百 镜大战第 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price reflecting a potential upside of over 15% compared to the relevant market index [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a stable growth in its 12-inch wafer business, with quarterly revenue surpassing $2 billion for the first time. The revenue for Q4 2024 is projected at $2.207 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.5% [3][4]. - The gross margin for Q4 2024 is anticipated to exceed guidance, reaching 22.6%, which is higher than the expected range of 18%-20% [3][4]. - The company is optimistic about the impact of national subsidy policies starting January 2025, which are expected to stimulate demand for consumer electronics, particularly smartphones [3][4]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: The total revenue is expected to grow from $6.322 billion in 2023 to $11.589 billion by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -13%, 27%, 21%, and 20% respectively [3][4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline from $903 million in 2023 to $493 million in 2024, before recovering to $1.027 billion by 2026 [3][4]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to fluctuate, with estimates of 19.26% in 2023, 18.03% in 2024, and improving to 20.96% by 2026 [3][4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be $0.11 in 2023, dropping to $0.06 in 2024, and then increasing to $0.13 by 2026 [3][4]. Operational Insights - The company’s 8-inch wafer monthly production is expected to reach 948,000 units in Q4 2024, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.5% [3][4]. - The average selling price (ASP) for products is projected to increase by 6% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, although a decline in ASP is anticipated in the second half of 2025 due to increased market supply [3][4]. - Capital expenditures are expected to remain stable in 2025, with depreciation expenses projected to increase by approximately 20% [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company aims to achieve an average tangible equity return of approximately 15% over the three-year period from 2025 to 2027, excluding the impact of notable items. The forecast for net interest income from banking operations in 2025 is approximately $42 billion, with expected credit loss provisions ranging from 30 to 40 basis points of average loans [4][5] - The company plans to maintain a common equity tier 1 capital ratio between 14% and 14.5% and a target payout ratio of 50% for 2025. A share buyback plan of up to $2 billion is expected to be completed before the announcement of Q1 2025 results [4][5] - The company has repurchased a total of $20 billion in shares between 2023 and 2024, representing about 11% of shares outstanding as of the end of 2022 [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, total revenue is projected to be $65.9 billion, with a year-on-year growth of -0.3%. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to be $22.9 billion, reflecting a 2.2% increase year-on-year [5][6] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at $1.24, with dividends per share projected at $0.87 [5][6] - The company reported a net interest margin of 1.56% for 2024, a decrease of 10 basis points compared to 2023, with net interest income of $43.7 billion, down $4 billion year-on-year [4][5]

海外公司跟踪报告 | 非必需性消费 证券研究报告 | | | 基础数据 | 月 | 20 | 日收盘价（港 | 72.80 | 02 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（亿港元） | | 356.86 | | | | 总股本（亿股） | | 4.90 | | | | | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | | | 难以复制的毛戈平品牌，打造高端价格带的国货品牌标杆：高端品牌具有突出的品牌形 象，通常由名人或艺术家创立，并使用他们的名字命名。作为品牌创始人，毛戈平先生 创新性地将光影美学的精髓与东方美学的内核精神深度融合，打造差异化服务。2003 年，毛戈平公司在上海港汇恒隆广场设立第一个专柜，成为第一个在高端百货商店设立 专柜的高端国货化妆品集团。截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日，公司在全国 120 个城市共运营 372 个自营专柜。专柜配备有 2700 名美妆顾问，提供个性化的咨询及试妆服务。 相关研究 分析师：宋婧茹 S0190520050002 BQI321 songjingru@xyzq.com.cn 分析师： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has passed its profit low point, and as a leading player in electronic bulk gases, it is expected to accelerate growth [4] - Revenue growth is steady, with significant projects validating the company's competitive strength [4] - Future profit margins are anticipated to recover as helium prices stabilize and projects ramp up [4] - There are multiple potential large project opportunities ahead, driven by the growth in computing power and AI applications [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 20.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.33% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 2.40 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.75% year-on-year [4] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 28.2% in 2024, with an expected recovery to 30.8% in 2025 [3][4] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.1% in 2024 to 6.2% in 2025 [3][4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.18 yuan in 2024 to 0.28 yuan in 2025 [3][4] Market Position - The company has secured contracts worth 2.74 billion yuan with domestic integrated circuit enterprises, reinforcing its strong competitive position in the electronic bulk gas market [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for advanced manufacturing processes and storage solutions in the electronics sector [4]

| 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 20 日 | | --- | --- | | 公司评级 | | | | 增持（维持） | 基础数据 | 02 月 20 日收盘价（元） | 10.76 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿元） | 141.97 | | 总股本（亿股） | 13.19 | | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | | 相关研究 【兴证电子】广钢气体 2024 半年报点 评：现场制气项目持续供气爬坡，盈利 能力整体趋于稳定-2024.07.31 【兴证电子】广钢气体 2023 年报点评： 氦气价格影响趋弱，电子特气建设有序 推进-2024.03.27 【兴证电子】广钢气体 2023 年业绩快报 点评：半导体新项目持续上量，氦价波 动趋弱，Q4 业绩环比提升-2024.02.26 分析师：姚康 广钢气体(688548.SH) 盈利低点已过，电子大宗气龙头有望加速成长 投资要点： | ⚫ | | --- | | 风险提示：中美贸易摩擦加剧；国内客户扩产不及预期；行业竞争加剧。 | | 会计年度 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- ...

行业跟踪报告 | 国防军工 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 02 月 19 日 相关研究 【兴证军工】"全国低空交通一张网"正 式启动，统一标准实现高水平布局- 2025.02.18 【兴证军工】体系梗阻破冰在即，结构 性反转可待-2025.02.09 【兴证军工】军用四足机器人行业催化 有力，上市公司紧锣密鼓布局- 2025.02.02 分析师：石康 S1220517040001 shikang@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：李博彦 S0190519080005 liboyan@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：徐东晓 S0190524070009 xudongxiao@xyzq.com.cn 战略看多航天精导产业链 投资要点： 据中国航天科工集团公众号，1 月 19 日—20 日，中国航天科工集团召开 2025 年工作会 议，集团公司党组书记、董事长提出了集团公司 2025 年"六个坚决完成"主要工作目标， 其中第一项是"坚决完成以重大工程、重点型号为代表的年度科研生产任务"。 多型航天精导产品已经亮相 2024 年中国航展。 航天精导产业链相关标的中，菲利华、高德红外、航天 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Boeing is a dual-monopoly enterprise in the aerospace sector, with operations spanning commercial airplanes (BCA), defense and space (BDS), and global services (BGS). Despite facing challenges in 2024, including a significant drop in delivery volumes and a net cash flow loss, the company demonstrates strong corrective capabilities and strategic management adjustments [5][6] - The report anticipates a recovery in revenue and profitability, projecting a revenue increase to $81.99 billion in 2025, with a return to profitability by 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Boeing operates in three major segments: BCA, BDS, and BGS, and is the largest commercial aircraft manufacturer globally. The company faced a 51% quarter-on-quarter drop in delivery volumes in Q4 2024 due to operational disruptions [5][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, Boeing reported revenues of $66.52 billion and a net loss of $11.82 billion. The BCA segment generated $22.86 billion in revenue but incurred an operating loss of $7.97 billion, primarily due to the 737-9 incident and labor strikes [6] - The company ended 2024 with cash and securities totaling $26.3 billion and reduced total debt to $53.9 billion [6] Market Demand and Orders - Global air travel demand has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with Boeing's backlog reaching $521 billion, involving 5,500 aircraft. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects industry net profits of $31.5 billion in 2024 and $36.6 billion in 2025 [6] Management Strategy - The new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, is implementing significant reforms to address quality control issues and streamline operations. The company aims to vertically integrate its supply chain through the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, expected to complete in 2025 [6] Production Adjustments - Boeing has adjusted its production rates in response to safety investigations and labor strikes, with plans to ramp up production of the 737 series once conditions allow [6] Future Projections - The report forecasts a recovery in deliveries and revenues, with expected deliveries of 544, 656, and 786 aircraft from 2025 to 2027, respectively. Revenue is projected to grow to $81.99 billion in 2025, with a return to profitability anticipated by 2025 [6]

海外公司跟踪报告 | 美股 证券研究报告 | 2 月 18 日收盘价（美元） | 184.97 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万美元） | 138,741 | | 总股本（百万股） | 750 | | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | | 相关研究 【兴证海外汽车】波音（BA.N）：工会罢 工冲击短期业绩，新 CEO 多举或解债务 难题-2024.11.01 【兴证海外汽车】波音（BA.N）：收购供 应商、管理层更换、生产恢复，百年波 音再启航-2024.08.05 | 公司评级 | 增持（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 19 日 | 基础数据 【兴证海外】波音 BOEING（BA.N) 2024Q1 业绩点评：额外安全检查影响交 付量、下半年产能有望恢复-2024.05.08 分析师：余小丽 S0190518020003 AXK331 yuxiaoli@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张弘彬 S0190524080002 请注意: 张弘彬并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 zhangho ...