定量研究 | 定量研究专题报告 证券研究报告 报告日期 2025 年 02 月 23 日 分析师：郑兆磊 S0190520080006 zhengzhaolei@xyzq.com.cn 相关研究 【兴证金工】布局" 硬科技"突围新思路， 科创板全能选手来袭—鹏华上证科创板 综合 ETF 盛大发行中-2025.02.19 【兴证金工】浙江国资创新崛起，杭州概 念领跑市场—浙江国资 ETF 投资价值分 析-2025.02.13 【兴证金工】政策春风助力，把握科创板 块投资机遇-2025.02.12 政策支持不断落地，科技东风带来民企经济新启程— —弘毅远方国证民企领先 100ETF 投资价值分析 投资要点： 风险提示：基金投资有风险，本报告不代表投资建议；基金经理历史业绩不代表未来， 请投资者知悉。 | 一、 | 支持政策不断落地，科技东风带来民企经济新启程 | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | | （一） | 民营企业是中国经济的重要支撑 | 4 | | （二） | 支持政策不断落地，民营企业迎来历史机遇期 | 5 | | （三） | 民营企业在中美科技竞争前沿一线的重要性再度凸显 | 6 | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic expectations are driving price increases, and seasonal demand is expected to gradually open up [2] - The steel price is currently stabilizing, with limited downside potential due to healthy supply-demand dynamics, particularly in a low inventory and low production environment [3] - Recent government policies, including the issuance of guidelines for greenhouse gas emissions in the steel industry, are expected to stimulate market enthusiasm [4] - The steel sector is anticipated to experience upward momentum due to improved profitability and macroeconomic policy expectations [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The steel sector saw a slight increase of 0.33%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.64 percentage points [12] Fundamental Tracking - National steel prices are generally strong, with a slight decrease in iron ore inventory [10] - The average price of rebar in Beijing is 3,318 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +23 CNY/ton [11] - The apparent consumption of rebar increased by 104.5 thousand tons week-on-week, reaching 168.6 thousand tons [6] Industry Dynamics - The high furnace operating rate is at 77.68%, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.3 percentage points [6] - The total output of five major steel products increased by 21.4 thousand tons week-on-week, totaling 8.36 million tons [6] - The profitability of hot-rolled sheets improved, with a gross profit of 75 CNY/ton, up by 15 CNY [6] Key Industry News - South Korea proposed temporary anti-dumping duties on thick plates imported from China, ranging from 27.91% to 38.02% [36] - In January 2025, member companies of the China Iron and Steel Association reported a 0.29% year-on-year decrease in total energy consumption [36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The insurance industry is actively integrating AI technologies to enhance various operational aspects, potentially leading to significant economic benefits, with estimates suggesting over $50 billion in annual economic gains from generative AI applications [4][37] - The securities sector is set to benefit from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's optimization of transaction fee structures, which aims to enhance market attractiveness and fairness in trading costs [4][40] Summary by Sections 1. Index and Sector Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.00% this week, while the securities sector (Securities II) rose by 0.58% [6][7] - The insurance sector (Insurance II) decreased by 1.04%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 2.05 percentage points [4][36] 2. Insurance Weekly Data Tracking - As of the end of December 2024, the total assets of the insurance industry reached 35.9 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 31.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.3% [35] - The cumulative insurance premium income for the insurance industry was 5.7 trillion yuan in 2024, showing a growth of 5.7% year-on-year [35] 3. Brokerage Weekly Data Tracking - The margin trading balance increased by 1.44% to 1.88 trillion yuan as of February 20 [16] - The issuance of new funds surged by 281.9% to 16.3 billion units this week, with equity funds seeing a remarkable increase of 750.1% to 4.4 billion units [19] 4. Key Company Announcements & Industry News - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced changes to its transaction fee structure, effective June 2025, which will link fees to transaction amounts and eliminate minimum and maximum fee limits [4][40] - Central Clearing Company has reduced certain transaction fees to support the real economy, effective from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2027 [31]

行业周报 | 非银金融 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 23 日 | 相关研究 【兴证非银】证券业基本面梳理之二十 一：AMC 股权划转汇金公司，打开券商 整合想象空间-2025.02.19 【兴证非银】证券业基本面梳理之二 十：中长期资金入市的券商视角，打开 OCI 账户配置空间-2025.02.19 【兴证非银】非银周报（250210- 250214）：AMC 股权划转中央汇金，关 注行业整合空间-2025.02.16 分析师：徐一洲 S0190521060001 xuyizhou@xyzq.com.cn 非银周报（250217-250221）： 港交所优化交收费结构，提振港股交易活跃度 投资要点： 重点公告：王常青先生因到龄退休原因，辞去中信建投董事长职务，董事会同意提请 股东大会审议关于选举刘成担任公司执行董事的议案。 行业新闻：证监会召开党委会传达学习习近平总书记在民营企业座谈会上的重要讲话 精神。 ⚫ 风险提示：利率下行、市场大幅波动、政策落地不达预期、行业竞争加剧。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/14 研 ...

行业周报 | 公用事业 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 23 日 | 相关研究 【兴证公用】新能源上网电价新政落 地，动力煤价持续走低-2025.02.16 【兴证公用】国内对美国产煤炭、LNG 加征 15%关税，关注中长期资金入市下 的红利板块-2025.02.09 【兴证公用&海外&化工】全球燃气供需 格局变迁与展望 3：寻找影响 2025 年进 口 LNG 价格的关键变量-2025.02.07 分析师：蔡屹 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/24 ⚫ 20250217-20250221，本期 A 股电力指数+0.33%，截至 2 月 21 日 PE（TTM）估值 17.0x；A 股燃气板块指数-0.91%，截至 2 月 21 日 PE（TTM）估值 13.1x。A 股电力 指数+0.33%，其细分子板块火电、水电、新能源发电变化幅度分别为+1.53%、-0.77%、 +0.86%。A 股燃气板块指数-0.91%。 ⚫ 本期火电组合：皖能电力+华电国际+申能股份+华能国际+浙能电力+国电电力 ⚫ 本期清洁电 ...

行业周报 | 有色金属 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 02 月 23 日 相关研究 【兴证金属】有色金属：俄乌战争趋向 结束，大宗价格或迎短期回调- 2025.02.16 【兴证金属】关税落地后金价再创新 高，关注黄金股右侧布局机会- 2025.02.09 【兴证金属】有色金属：关税压力缓 和，继续看好铜铝黄金配置机会- 2025.01.26 分析师：蔡屹 S0190518030002 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：赵远喆 S0190524070011 zhaoyuanji@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理：汤璐阳 tangluyang@xyzq.com.cn 美国延续强势购金，大宗商品价格如期回调 投资要点： ⚫ 周度观点：美国延续强势购金行为，大宗价格如期短暂回调 贵金属方面，近期黄金价格强势主要受到美国强势购金行为影响。Comex 黄金库存自 2025 年年初以来，已经增加 500 吨至 1181 吨，增幅达到 73%，且目前仍在持续增加过程中， 表示实物黄金紧缺程度的黄金租赁利率（SOFR-GOFO）也迅速上升至 3.5%。叠加近期 马斯克主导的 DOGE ...

行业周报 | 国防军工 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐 (维持) | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 23 日 | 相关研究 【兴证军工观察】战略看多航天精导产业 链-2025.02.19 【兴证军工】"全国低空交通一张网"正 式启动，统一标准实现高水平布局 -2025.02.18 【兴证军工】体系梗阻破冰在即，结构性 反转可待-2025.02.09 S1220517040001 shikang@xyzq.com.cn S0190519080005 liboyan@xyzq.com.cn S0190524070009 xudongxiao@xyzq.com.cn 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 02 月 23 日 继续战略看多航天精导产业链，十四五末需求 拐点已至 投资要点： 2025-02-10 至 2025-02-21，国防军工（中信）指数上涨 2.20%，在 30 个一级行业指数中涨幅第 15， 跑输上证指数 0.08pct，与沪深 300 指数涨幅相同，跑输创业板指数 2.73pct。 分析师：石康 截至 2 月 21 日，219 个军工标的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the A-share electricity index increased by 0.33% during the period from February 17 to February 21, 2025, with a TTM PE valuation of 17.0x. The gas sector index decreased by 0.91%, with a TTM PE valuation of 13.1x [3][5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the global natural gas market will remain tight in the first quarter of 2025, with demand growth slowing to below 2% [4][6] - The report suggests investment opportunities in the electricity sector, particularly in thermal power companies like Waneng Power, Huadian International, and others, as well as in hydropower and nuclear power sectors [7] Summary by Sections Electricity Sector Data Tracking - As of February 21, 2025, the market price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 730 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.67% compared to February 14. The inventory at Qinhuangdao Port is 7.03 million tons, an increase of 3.4% week-on-week [13][30] - The inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir on February 21 show an inflow of 0.66 cubic meters per second, up 32% year-on-year, and an outflow of 0.86 cubic meters per second, up 25.81% year-on-year [30][31] - The total electricity consumption in 2024 is projected to be 98,521 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [55] Gas Sector Data Tracking - As of February 21, 2025, the average ex-factory price of domestic gas is 4,332 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.70% from February 14. The average ex-factory price of imported LNG is 4,995 RMB/ton, up 2.33% [59][61] - The report notes that the LNG price at the Chinese ports is 13.90 USD/million BTU, which translates to approximately 3.52 RMB/cubic meter, showing a year-on-year increase of 69.20% [56][59]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the recent strong gold prices are primarily driven by robust gold purchasing behavior in the U.S., with Comex gold inventory increasing by 500 tons to 1181 tons since the beginning of 2025, marking a 73% increase [1] - The report anticipates a short-term price correction for base metals due to the easing of sanctions on Russian commodities as the Russia-Ukraine conflict trends towards resolution, while medium-term demand for base metals is expected to strengthen due to EU interest rate cuts and post-war reconstruction efforts in the region [1] - The report highlights that gold prices are expected to continue rising due to liquidity easing and inflation expectations, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Shandong Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [2] - Aluminum prices are on the rise due to improved macro sentiment and tariff concerns, with the report suggesting attention to companies like Yun Aluminum and Tianshan Aluminum [3] - Copper prices are experiencing weakness, with a focus on monitoring end-demand recovery as a key factor for future price movements, while the report suggests potential opportunities in companies like Jincheng Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [4] - Lithium carbonate prices have seen a slight decrease, but the report notes that the supply-demand balance remains under pressure, recommending attention to companies like Zhongjin Lingnan and Yongxing Materials [5][6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have continued to rise, breaking above $2950 per ounce, driven by heightened risk aversion and U.S. economic data showing mixed signals [2] - The report emphasizes the long-term upward trend in gold prices due to monetary expansion and fiscal deficit monetization, suggesting investment in gold-related stocks [2] Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices are rising due to stable production and increased downstream demand, with profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector recovering to nearly 3000 yuan/ton [3] - Copper prices are under pressure, with domestic inventory accumulation indicating weak demand, while external supply remains tight [4] Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate has slightly decreased, with production expected to increase as lithium salt plants resume operations [5][6] Market Dynamics - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has seen a decline of 1.52%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.48 percentage points [21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the environmental sector, including the proposal for Chongqing to add over 500,000 tons/day of wastewater treatment capacity by 2025 and the promotion of circular economy initiatives in various provinces [3][4] - The carbon market is showing increased activity, with a notable rise in trading volumes and fluctuations in pricing, indicating a growing interest and potential for investment in carbon-related assets [4][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of traditional environmental businesses with stable operational capabilities, suggesting that these companies may see a revaluation in their stock prices due to their profitability certainty [4][28] Summary by Sections Important Data Tracking - From February 17 to February 21, the national carbon market saw a trading volume of 249,200 tons, a 126.24% increase compared to the previous period [4][8] - The average closing price for carbon emission allowances was 89.90 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight decrease [4][8] Market Performance - During the period from February 17 to February 21, the A-share environmental index rose by 2.76%, while the H-share environmental index increased by 2.07% [19] - The sub-sectors within the environmental industry showed varied performance, with solid waste treatment and resource utilization up by 2.23% and air pollution control up by 1.47% [19] Industry News - Shanghai aims to achieve near-zero landfill waste by the end of 2026, with specific targets for various types of waste [25][26] - Shandong is piloting a program for the directional utilization of hazardous waste, which could set a precedent for waste management practices [26] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong operational capabilities and cash flow, particularly those that can benefit from new environmental demands, such as semiconductor waste gas treatment [4][28] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Hongcheng Environment, Huanlan Environment, and Weiming Environmental, with a suggestion to pay attention to Yongxing Co., Ltd. [4][28][29]