行业周报 | 钢铁 证券研究报告 | | | | | 月 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 17 | 日 | | 行业评级 | | 推荐（维持） | | | | | | 报告日期 | | | | | | | | | 2025 | 年 | 02 | | | | 相关研究 【兴证金属】钢铁：黑色商品价格普涨， 政策端发酵推升板块大涨-2025.02.09 【兴证金属】钢铁：钢价盘整，行业政策 文件推升钢铁股普涨-2025.01.27 【兴证金属】宏观情绪转暖推升钢价反弹 -2025.01.20 S0190518030002 投资要点： 短期利好兑现，关注旺季需求成色 分析师：蔡屹 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn 短期利好兑现，关注旺季需求成色 此前我们提示的钢材催涨条件在周内已逐步兑现，特别是海外铁矿发运扰动的催涨逻辑， 在飓风逐渐降级的情况下，市场预期后续发运量恢复正常，利好兑现落地。而元宵节后， 根据百年建筑的调研数据，复工率、劳务上工率、资金到位率同比数据均呈现不同程度的 下滑，钢价弱势也较铁矿的下跌更加明显，虽然 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown a positive performance with the SW Automotive index increasing by 1.2% and the SW Passenger Vehicle index rising by 3.7% during the reporting period [2][7] - Year-to-date performance indicates a significant increase in the SW Automotive index by 15.4% and the SW Passenger Vehicle index by 17.2% [2] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.3% with a year-to-date increase of 4.2%. The ChiNext Index rose by 1.9% with a year-to-date increase of 9.9% [2] - **Sector Performance**: The SW Commercial Vehicle index decreased by 1.6% but still shows a year-to-date increase of 8.5%. The SW Auto Parts index had a slight increase of 0.1% with a year-to-date increase of 15.4% [2] - **Top Performers**: Notable gainers include Dongfeng Technology (+26.7%) and Xiangyou Pump (+15.8%), while the worst performers include Construction Industry (-11.5%) and Fuda Shares (-10.5%) [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector is currently experiencing a favorable investment environment, supported by recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market [3][38] - The report highlights the performance of various companies within the sector, noting significant weekly gains for several firms, indicating positive market sentiment [3][8][11] Market Overview - The report indicates that the Hong Kong local stocks performed well, with notable companies such as Hysan Development (+4.7%), Sino Land (+3.6%), and Cheung Kong Property (+3.6%) showing strong weekly gains [4][5] - The Hang Seng Property Index increased by 3.5% this week, reflecting a positive trend in the real estate market [7] Company Performance - The report lists the top-performing real estate companies for the week, including Jianfa International (+13.7%), Sunac China (+13.1%), and Vanke Enterprises (+11.0%) [8][9] - In the property management sector, companies like Beike (+17.8%), Kington Service (+6.4%), and Evergrande Service (+6.0%) also showed strong performance [11][12] Shareholding Changes - The report notes changes in the Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings for property management companies, with increases for companies like Greentown China and China Jinmao [13][14] - For local Hong Kong stocks, companies such as Hang Lung Properties and Cheung Kong Holdings saw increases in their Stock Connect holdings [16][17] Short Selling Activity - The report highlights short selling activity, with Jianfa International, Beike, and China Overseas Development having the highest short selling ratios [19][20] - For local stocks, the top short selling companies included Kowloon Development, Cheung Kong Holdings, and CLP Holdings [22][23] Macro Observations - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, noting the current yield on China's ten-year government bonds at 1.6546% and the USDCNH exchange rate at 7.2594 [24][27] Industry Dynamics - The report mentions that the cumulative sales area in 30 major cities for 2025 is 8.47 million square meters, a decrease of 14.5% year-on-year, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival [31] Company Announcements - Key announcements from companies include Longfor Group reporting sales figures for January and Greentown China issuing priority notes [35] Investment Strategy - The report recommends an overweight position in the real estate and property management sectors, citing strong fundamentals and supportive government policies [38][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's $5 meal package has significantly boosted same-store sales, and the introduction of the McValue menu is expected to continue this positive trend. As external conditions normalize, same-store performance in regions outside the U.S. is gradually recovering, with global same-store sales expected to return to positive growth in 2025, driving revenue recovery [4][5]. - The company's Q4 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue of $6.39 billion, a slight year-over-year decline of 0.3%. The operating profit was $2.87 billion, a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, while net profit was $2.02 billion, down 1.1% year-over-year [4][5]. - The company maintained a stable dividend policy, with a quarterly dividend of $1.77 per share and a total annual dividend payout of $4.9 billion, representing 3.5% of the total market capitalization of $221.1 billion [4][5]. - Same-store sales showed significant improvement in Q4 2024, with U.S. same-store sales down 1.4%, while international markets showed positive growth. Overall global same-store sales increased by 0.4% year-over-year [4][5]. - The company plans to continue its store expansion strategy, with a target of adding 2,200 new stores in 2025, aiming for a total of 45,277 stores by the end of 2025 [4][5]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported total revenue of $25.92 billion, a year-over-year growth of 1.7%. The net profit was $8.22 billion, a decline of 2.9% year-over-year [5][6]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $27.26 billion, $28.84 billion, and $30.49 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 5.2%, 5.8%, and 5.7% [5][6]. - The projected net profits for the same years are $8.70 billion, $9.29 billion, and $9.95 billion, with growth rates of 5.8%, 6.8%, and 7.0% [5][6]. - The company maintains a healthy operating profit margin, projected to be between 45% and 50% for 2025 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the market's concerns regarding the company's automotive glass pricing are unfounded, as the acceleration of smart driving technology will drive further upgrades in glass products, particularly in the context of intelligent cockpit enhancements [5][6] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of smart features in vehicles, which will enhance the complexity and value of automotive glass products [5][6] - The forecast for the company's net profit is adjusted upwards, with expected figures of 77.8 billion, 92.2 billion, and 108.1 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [3] Summary by Sections 1. Electrification Phase: Upgrades in the "Light" Domain - The report highlights the cost advantages and aesthetic appeal of panoramic glass roofs compared to traditional sunroofs, with a significant increase in penetration rates in new energy vehicles [6][7] - The average cost of a panoramic glass roof is estimated to be between 1500 to 2000 yuan, which is 33% to 167% lower than traditional sunroofs [6] 2. Intelligentization Phase: Enhancements in Human-Machine Interaction - The report discusses the rise of HUD (Head-Up Display) technology, which is expected to increase the value of front windshields as they serve as information display mediums [17][30] - The penetration rate of HUD systems has risen from 4% in 2020 to 15.3% by November 2024, indicating a growing trend in the automotive industry [30] - The integration of antennas into automotive glass is highlighted as a significant trend, with the company developing solutions for 5G antenna integration [37][41] 3. Potential for ASP (Average Selling Price) Increase - The report suggests that the ASP for automotive glass is expected to rise due to the increasing complexity and functionality of products driven by smart technology [5][6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in electrification and intelligentization, which are anticipated to enhance product value and market demand [5][6] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the expected growth in net profit and the company's strategic positioning in the automotive glass market [3][5] - The anticipated launch of new models by leading automotive manufacturers is expected to further drive demand for the company's innovative glass products [5][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector is currently experiencing a favorable investment environment, supported by recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market [3][39] - The report highlights the strong performance of certain companies within the sector, with notable increases in stock prices for firms such as Jianfa International (+13.7%), Sunac China (+13.1%), and Vanke Enterprises (+11.0%) [8][11] - The report suggests a strategic allocation towards real estate and property management sectors, recommending companies like China Overseas Development, Greentown China, and Longfor Group [3][39] Market Overview - The report notes that the Hang Seng Real Estate Index increased by 3.5% this week, reflecting positive market sentiment [7] - The report indicates that the cumulative sales area in 30 major cities for 2025 is 8.47 million square meters, a decrease of 14.5% year-on-year, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival [32] Company Performance - The report lists the top-performing companies in the real estate sector for the week, including Jianfa International, Sunac China, and Vanke Enterprises, with respective weekly increases of 13.7%, 13.1%, and 11.0% [8][11] - The report also highlights the performance of property management companies, with Beike leading at +17.8%, followed by Jinke Service (+6.4%) and Yongsheng Service (+6.0%) [11] Stock Holdings and Short Selling - The report details the changes in Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings, noting increases for companies such as Greentown China and China Jinmao [13][16] - It also provides insights into short selling activities, with Jianfa International, Beike, and China Overseas Development having the highest short selling ratios [19][23]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the imminent breakthrough in the structural reversal of the military industry, indicating potential growth opportunities [2] - The launch of the "National Low-altitude Traffic Network" aims to unify standards and facilitate high-level layout for low-altitude traffic management, which is expected to support the industry development [3] - The establishment of the China Low-altitude Economy Alliance is a significant step towards promoting collaboration and standardization within the industry [3] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of a unified low-altitude traffic network to avoid redundant construction and ensure quality standards across different regions [3] - The China Low-altitude Economy Alliance's mission includes hosting global forums, providing research reports, and maintaining industry interests [3] Industry Developments - The report notes that the low-altitude traffic management system is a complex project requiring new management rules and standards due to the unique challenges posed by low-altitude weather conditions [3] - The alliance consists of various founding members from different sectors, indicating a broad base of support for the initiative [3]

海外公司跟踪报告 | 非必需性消费 证券研究报告 分析师：宋健 S0190518010002 BMV912 songjian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：严宁馨 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 02 月 17 日 | | --- | --- | | 公司评级 | 增持（维持） | 基础数据 | 2 月 14 日收盘价（美元） | 308.55 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿美元） | 2211 | | 总股本（亿股） | 7.17 | 来源：Wind，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 相关研究 【兴证海外社服】麦当劳 (MCD.N)2024Q3 业绩点评：Q3 美国同 店销售同比增速转正-2024.11.15 【兴证海外社服】麦当劳 (MCD.N)2024Q2 业绩点评：Q2 业绩低 于预期，低价套餐提振销售-2024.08.06 S0190521010001 请注意: 严宁馨并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 yanningxin@xyzq.com.cn 麦当劳(MCD.N) 2024Q4 同店表现改善明显，全球同店销售同比转正 投资要点： 请阅读 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for stocks related to the AI infrastructure and PCB sectors, indicating a potential upside greater than 15% compared to relevant market indices [43]. Core Insights - Deepseek is expected to drive a surge in application-side AI demand, leading to a significant increase in computational power requirements. The model has achieved performance comparable to top global models at a very low training cost, which raises concerns about future computational needs [3][11]. - The demand for customized ASICs is strong, confirming the sustainability of AI's growth. Broadcom anticipates that the demand for ASICs and networks from three clients will reach between $60 billion and $90 billion by 2027, with a projected CAGR of 45% from 2023 to 2028 [3][25]. - The design of AI servers is undergoing iterative upgrades, which is expected to enhance the value of PCBs. The complexity of deploying new architectures like the GB200 has led to challenges in assembly yield and thermal management, necessitating design optimizations in future models [3][28]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Deepseek and AI Demand - Deepseek has significantly reduced pre-training costs, but the demand for inference power is expected to explode as applications become more widespread. The total training cost for Deepseek-V3 is estimated at $5.576 million, with operational costs potentially exceeding $944 million [11][12][13]. - The inference cost per million output tokens for Deepseek is $0.28, which is substantially lower than competitors, but the overall cost for serving billions of users remains high [15][16][17]. - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are increasing their capital expenditures significantly, with Google projecting $75 billion for 2025, a 43% increase year-over-year [19][22]. Section 2: ASIC Demand and Market Growth - ASICs are expected to see explosive growth, with Broadcom predicting a demand of $60 billion to $90 billion by 2027 from three clients. Marvell also anticipates strong growth in AI inference accelerators [25][26]. - The CAGR for the ASIC market from 2023 to 2028 is projected to be 45%, indicating robust growth potential in this segment [27]. Section 3: AI Server Design and PCB Value - The deployment of the GB200 architecture has introduced complexities that affect thermal management and assembly yield. Overheating issues have been reported, leading to delivery delays [28][32][33]. - Future designs may adopt orthogonal architectures to improve data transmission speeds and reduce interconnect distances, with PTFE materials being considered for high-performance applications [36][37][38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that pig prices are maintaining a weak trend, while chick prices continue to decline [2] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various agricultural and livestock prices, indicating significant fluctuations in the market [22] Market Overview - The report covers the market performance from February 10 to February 14, 2025, with various indices showing slight changes [6][12] - Specific stock performances include: - Wens Foodstuff Group: -0.88% - New Hope Liuhe: +3.53% - Zhengbang Technology: +1.65% [12] Price Trends - Livestock prices: - Average price for pigs: 14.61 CNY/kg, down 2.14% [22] - Average price for chicks: 2.92 CNY, down 12.31% [22] - Grain prices: - Domestic corn price: 0.3 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease [21] - Domestic wheat price: 3 CNY/ton, stable [21] Valuation Levels - The report mentions TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) valuation metrics for the industry, with a TTM of 22.38 for the index [15] Important Announcements - The report includes significant announcements regarding price changes and market conditions for various agricultural products, indicating a trend of price reductions across several categories [18]