远东研究·信用利差 2025 年 4 月 17 日 作 者：冯祖涵，FRM 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 行业利差全线收窄，长久期城投债信用分化加剧 ——2025 年第一季度债券市场信用利差分析 摘 要 2025 年第一季度，债券市场各期限各等级信用利差整体呈收窄趋势。从等 级利差差值上看，各期限 AA-利差与 AAA 级利差的差值整体呈下降走势，说明 第一季度末各期限信用债信用分化程度有所下降。 从产业债角度来看，第一季度行业信用利差全线收窄。其中，汽车与医药生 物行业利差下行幅度最大，均超过 20BP；公用事业与电力行业利差降幅相对较 小，在 11BP 左右。房地产行业中等信用等级（AA 级）行业利差继续走阔，或 因 AA 级房地产企业多为已出险的民营房企，其信用风险仍相对较高。 从城投债角度来看，第一季度各期限各级别城投债信用利差整体呈收窄走 势。2025 年《政府工作报告》延续了"坚持在发展中化债、在化债中发展"的政策 取向，强调要做好地方政府隐性债务置换工作，加快剥离地方融资平台政府融资 功能，推动市场化转型和债务风险化解。在化债政策支持下，城投债信用风险得 到缓释。第一季度，各 ...

邮 箱:research@fecr.com.cn 社融、信贷"开门红"，关注增长可持续性 -2025年一季度金融数据点评、政策回顾与前瞻 摘 要 2025年4月13日，央行公布了3月和一季度金融数据: (1)2025年一季度社会融资规模增量累计 15.18万亿元,其 中，3 月社会融资规模增量 5.89 万亿元，同比多增 1.06 万亿元; (2) 2025 年一季度人民币贷款增加 9.78 万亿元, 其中, 3 月 新增人民币贷款 3.64 万亿元，同比多增 0.55 万亿元; 远东研究 · 宏观经济与政策专题 2025 年 4 月 15 日 作 者:柴柯青 (3)3 月 M2 同比 7%. 前值 7%: M1 同比 1.6%. 前值 0.1%: M0 同比 11.5%，前值 9.7%。 总体来看,2025年一季度社融信贷总量均有增长,财政"靠前 发力"效果显现,企业端资金有所修复。其中,信贷主要拉动项为 企业短贷和票据数据修复明显,而居民端信贷需求有所走弱,消 费短贷走弱、中长期贷款在地产回暖势头边际减弱情况下有所降 温。3 月份财政发力带动财政支出上行,同时伴随需求端处于回 暖态势,从而带动 M1 增速 ...

远东研究 · 固定收益专题 作 者:柴柯青 邮 箱:research@fecr.com.cn 2025 年商业银行"二永债"市场简析 探寻化债背景下的供需博弈与结构性机遇 摘 要 "二永债"是商业银行二级资本债和永续债的合称，属于商业 银行次级债,是商业银行重要的资本补充工具,具有明显的次级 属性,可吸收部分损失,在受偿顺序上劣后于普通债权且含有减 记条款。 一级市场回顾：1.发行规模方面，2024 年商业银行"二永债" 发行规模创历史新高,主因永续债"赎回年"已至,商业银行选择 "赎旧发新"、摊低负债成本。2.发行类别方面,国有行是"二永债" 发行规模主力,中小银行是"二永债"发行只数主力。3.发行评级方 面,高评级"二永债"发行规模较高,其中二级资本债高等级债券 发行占比逐年上升,永续债高等级债券发行占比呈下降趋势、24 年有所提升。4.发行利率方面,受市场整体利率下行影响,2024年 "二永债"平均发行利率明显下降,中小行信用有所修复。5. 到期 赎回方面,2025年"二永债"到期规模约 1.2 万亿、第三季度为到 期高峰,后续二级资本债到期偿还金额逐年上升、永续债逐渐下 降，中小银行面临再融资压力。 ...

远东研究 · 宏观经济专题 2025 年 3 月 13 日 作 者:柴柯青 邮 箱:research@fecr.com.cn 相关研究报告: 1.《金融"组合拳"支持房地 产止跌回稳 --- 房地产一揽 子增量政策回顾》。 2024.10.29 如何促进房地产市场止跌回稳? 摘 要 《2025年政府工作报告》首次把稳住楼市写进总体要求,在具 体任务中提出"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳",释放坚定稳楼 市信号，稳地产有助于稳经济、稳就业、防风险。 当前房地产市场表现如下:1.成交方面,呈现结构性"止跌回 稳",其中二手房好于新房、核心城市先行复苏,从"以价换量"到"量 价企稳"仍待观察;2.投资方面,当前销售回暖热度仍未传导至投资 端,在市场整体供需缩量的情况下,房地产投资全链条承压;3.资金 方面,销售回款仍为主要来源,直接融资规模尚未恢复。 考虑到经济发展阶段、人口周期以及市场基础迎来新变化,新 一轮地产复苏周期有所拉长。本轮周期呈现以下四个特点:1.经济增 速换挡,房地产业对经济贡献下降,但仍为基础和支柱行业,未来 新发展模式支撑行业发展;2.人口总量和结构拐点均已出现,改善性 需求或将成为需求主力;3 ...

远东研究·行业研究 2025 年 2 月 12 日 邮箱：research@fecr.com.cn 金融资产投资公司股权投资试点现状及发展分析 作者：简尚波 摘 要 自 2024 年 9 月国家金融监管总局相继印发《关于做好金融资 产投资公司股权投资扩大试点工作的通知》《关于扩大金融资产投 资公司股权投资试点范围的通知》以来，国内多家金融资产投资公 司（AIC）在北京、天津、上海、重庆、南京、杭州、合肥、济南 等试点城市设立 AIC 股权投资基金的案例加速涌现，这些基金以 支持各地科技创新为主力方向。此举顺应了金融系统做好科技金融 大文章和我国加快新质生产力培育和发展的重要战略导向。 众多 AIC 股权投资基金采取跨界联合发起，包括地方国资投 资平台、AIC、科技企业和地方重点国企等，AIC 作为金融资产投 资公司股权投资试点的核心企业，发挥重要出资人角色，促进了银 行系的权益资本对于各城市科创领域融资需求深入对接。AIC 基金 案例实践同时显示，这些基金聚焦支持科技创新，助力战略性新兴 产业、未来产业等领域发展，AIC 从中发挥耐心资本的角色。 AIC 基金发展蕴含着新质生产力发展、稳定经济增长势头、增 强 ...

Group 1: Importance of Private Economy - The private economy is a crucial component of the socialist market economy, contributing significantly to economic stability and transformation[14] - As of September 2024, there are 18,086,480 private economic entities in China, accounting for 96.37% of total market entities, with a year-on-year growth of 3.93%[14] - Private enterprises contribute over 70% of technological innovation results in China, including more than 90% of high-tech enterprises[14] Group 2: Challenges in Fair Competition - The draft emphasizes the need for a fair competition environment, addressing issues like market entry barriers and local protectionism[16] - Private enterprises face challenges in public resource transactions, including information asymmetry and stricter contract conditions compared to state-owned enterprises[21] - The report suggests improving transparency in bidding processes and restructuring government-enterprise relationships to enhance competition for private firms[22] Group 3: Financing Conditions for Private Enterprises - Private enterprises' bond issuance has been declining, with their share dropping from 8.63% in 2017 to 1.64% in 2023[23] - In the first half of 2024, private enterprises issued bonds worth 151.33 billion yuan, representing only 1.64% of the total, while state-owned enterprises issued 151,965.45 billion yuan, accounting for 90.87%[23] - The net financing of private enterprises in the bond market has been negative since 2021, with a net outflow of 960.48 billion yuan in 2023[38] Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - The report recommends enhancing support for private enterprises in high-yield, technology innovation, and green bonds to improve their market position[42] - It suggests developing credit rating services that do not discriminate based on ownership type to improve private enterprises' access to financing[43] - Encouraging private enterprises to participate in major scientific research projects and improving collaboration between academia and industry are also highlighted as necessary steps[48]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the automotive industry, particularly in the context of export growth and the development of new energy vehicles [3][4]. Core Insights - China's automotive exports have seen significant growth, surpassing 4 million units in just nine months of 2024, with expectations to exceed 5 million units by year-end [3][8]. - The report highlights the dominance of passenger vehicles in exports, which accounted for 85.88% of total automotive exports in the first ten months of 2024 [15]. - New energy vehicles (NEVs) are gaining traction, with exports growing at a rate significantly higher than the overall automotive export growth, contributing 24.75% to total exports in 2023 [19][21]. - The report notes a shift in export markets, with Russia, Mexico, and the UAE being the top destinations for Chinese automotive exports [22]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Automotive Export Situation - In 2023, China's automotive exports reached 4.85 million units, a year-on-year increase of 56.21%, marking a historical high [8]. - The export value of automotive products also surged, with a total export amount of $101.688 billion in 2023, reflecting a 69% increase from the previous year [11]. 2. Characteristics of Automotive Exports - Passenger vehicles remain the primary export category, with their share of total exports increasing from 79.17% in 2021 to 85.88% in 2024 [15]. - NEVs, while still a smaller segment, have shown remarkable growth, with exports reaching 1.203 million units in 2023, a 77% increase year-on-year [19]. 3. Export Markets - The primary export markets for Chinese automobiles in 2024 include Russia, Mexico, the UAE, Belgium, and Brazil, with Russia being the largest market [22]. - The average export price of Chinese vehicles has risen to $20,000, with higher prices observed in markets like Russia and Belgium [23]. 4. Potential Tariff Risks - The report discusses the impact of potential tariff increases from the EU and the US on China's automotive exports, particularly concerning NEVs and components [4][37]. - It suggests that while the US market poses limited risk due to low dependency, the EU's tariffs could significantly affect competitiveness in that market [37]. 5. Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends that automotive companies diversify their export markets and consider localizing production in regions like Southeast Asia and Europe to mitigate tariff impacts [49][50]. - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing R&D capabilities and product quality to maintain a competitive edge in the global market [55].

Revenue Insights - From January to October 2024, national public fiscal revenue totaled 184,981 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, but the decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points compared to January to September[3] - In October 2024, public fiscal revenue reached 21,922 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.49%, with an increase of 3.0 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Tax revenue and non-tax revenue both showed significant improvement, with non-tax revenue growth primarily linked to local governments revitalizing state-owned assets[21] Expenditure Trends - National public fiscal expenditure from January to October 2024 was 221,465 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with an acceleration of 0.7 percentage points from January to September[27] - In October 2024, public fiscal expenditure was 19,686 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.37%, indicating a faster expenditure pace[27] - Social security and employment expenditure reached 2,816 billion yuan in October, growing by 15.98% year-on-year, while education expenditure increased by 0.50%[36] Government Fund Dynamics - From January to October 2024, government fund budget revenue totaled 35,462 billion yuan, down 19% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points compared to January to September[41] - Local government revenue from land use rights was 26,971 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.9%, with the decline narrowing by 1.7 percentage points from January to September[42] Policy Measures - The government plans to implement comprehensive measures to achieve budget balance and meet annual budget targets, including adjustments to the budget stabilization fund and government fund budget[46] - A series of targeted incremental policy measures have been announced, including support for local governments to resolve hidden debts and measures to stabilize the real estate market[47]

Group 1: Debt Management and Regulations - The report discusses the legal framework governing local government debt limits, including the "Budget Law of the People's Republic of China" and its implementation regulations, which outline the decision-making process for increasing debt limits[4] - A new round of hidden debt replacement involves an increase of CNY 6 trillion in local debt limits for replacing hidden debts, with CNY 800 billion allocated annually for five years from new local government special bonds for debt reduction[1] - The report emphasizes the importance of revitalizing past government debt limits to alleviate fiscal pressure and optimize debt structure, which is crucial under the current macroeconomic conditions[1] Group 2: Economic Impact and Debt Replacement - The report refutes the notion that debt replacement cannot effectively promote economic growth, highlighting its role in reducing debt risk, saving interest expenses, and enhancing local development momentum[1] - It is estimated that the total hidden debt will decrease significantly from CNY 14.3 trillion at the end of 2023 to CNY 5.9 trillion by the end of 2026, and further to CNY 2.3 trillion by 2028 due to the new debt replacement measures[18] - The debt replacement measures are expected to save approximately CNY 600 billion in interest expenses over five years, providing tangible benefits for economic development[18] Group 3: City Investment Companies and Credit Impact - The new round of hidden debt replacement may help lower financing costs for city investment companies, although the specific impact will depend on market reactions and policy implementation outcomes[1] - The report notes that city investment companies' debt increased from CNY 16.53 trillion at the end of 2014 to CNY 61.47 trillion at the end of 2023, indicating a significant rise in their debt levels[12] - The credit spreads of city investment bonds have narrowed, reflecting market confidence in the credit status of these companies following the debt replacement initiatives[29]

Tax Policy - Harris proposes increasing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% to enhance government revenue and support public services[14] - Trump advocates reducing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 20%, with further reductions for companies producing in the U.S.[29] - Harris aims to provide tax relief for low-income individuals, including expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit and increasing child tax credits[15] Trade Policy - Harris supports targeted tariffs on industries related to national security, particularly against China[19] - Trump emphasizes using tariffs as negotiation tools, proposing up to 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and other high tariffs on various goods[20] - Both candidates exhibit protectionist tendencies, but Trump's approach is more aggressive and confrontational[19] Energy Policy - Harris promotes renewable energy development and aims to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, aligning with the Inflation Reduction Act[21] - Trump supports traditional energy industries and plans to provide tax incentives for oil and gas drilling, opposing renewable energy initiatives[23] - Harris's policies are expected to accelerate the transition to a clean energy economy, while Trump's policies may hinder it[22] Immigration Policy - Harris focuses on addressing root causes of immigration by improving conditions in Central America and enhancing border security[24] - Trump emphasizes building a border wall and implementing strict immigration controls, including large-scale deportations[25] - The candidates' differing approaches reflect their broader philosophies on social integration and national security[24] Defense and Foreign Policy - Harris advocates for increased defense spending and continued support for Ukraine, emphasizing a proactive foreign policy[26] - Trump suggests a more isolationist approach, proposing to reduce U.S. involvement in international conflicts and support for Ukraine[27] - The candidates' foreign policy strategies will significantly influence America's global role and alliances[26]