1 |研究院 纽约分行 行内偕作·宏观点评 2024 年 10 月 11 日 美国降息预期趋缓 ——美国 CPI 通胀数据点评（2024 年 9 月） 9 月美国通胀数据略超预期。CPI 同比增速放缓至 2.4%（市场预期 2.3%）； 环比增速 0.2%（市场预期 0.1%）；核心 CPI 同比增速上行至 3.3%（市场预期 3.2%），环比增速 0.3%（市场预期 0.2%）。 随着商品价格结束深度通缩，服务通胀粘性问题或再度回归美联储视野。 结合近期数据判断，美联储三季度点阵图可能低估经济韧性与通胀粘性，四 季度降息幅度或由指引中的 50bp 收窄至 25bp。 一、总览：通胀粘性"再确认" 从需求看，三季度美国消费加速扩张。亚特兰大联储 GDPNOW 模型预 测三季度美国居民消费增速将较二季度上行 0.5pct 至 3.3%，其中商品消费增 速达到 5.7%。 消费韧性的背后，是薪资高增、财政扩张、通胀回落三者支撑下的实际 收入增速回升。年中以来剔除通胀后的居民实际可支配收入同比增速见底回 升，5-8 月上行 0.4pct 至 2.9%，较 2019 年均值高出 0.1pct。值得一提的是，9 月 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on consumer spending during the National Day holiday, suggesting a stable growth trend in the industry [1]. Core Insights - The National Day holiday consumption data shows a strong performance in volume over price, with notable trends in consumer behavior towards lower-tier cities and self-driving travel [1][24]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of government subsidies, particularly in the home appliance and automotive sectors, driving significant sales growth [5][24]. - There is a marked recovery in domestic tourism and outbound travel, with lower-tier cities emerging as new growth points for consumption [20][24]. Summary by Sections Travel - During the National Day holiday, cross-regional travel reached 2.003 billion trips, a 3.9% increase year-on-year and a 23.1% increase compared to 2019 [2]. - Various travel modes saw positive growth, with civil aviation, water transport, and railways increasing by 11.1%, 10%, and 6.3% respectively compared to 2023 [2][4]. - Civil aviation experienced a 15.1% decrease in average ticket prices despite a 9.3% increase in daily flights compared to 2023 [4]. Consumption - The average daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries grew by 25.1% during the holiday, indicating strong market vitality [5]. - The home appliance sector saw a remarkable increase, with sales volume exceeding 3.74 million units and sales revenue reaching 17.84 billion yuan [5]. - Service consumption also showed resilience, with dining and cultural services experiencing growth rates of 4.6% and 85.2% respectively [6][8]. Tourism - Domestic tourism reached 765 million trips, with total spending of 700.817 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.9% and 6.3% increase year-on-year respectively [11]. - The average per capita tourism expenditure was 916 yuan, recovering to 98% of the 2019 level [13]. - Key scenic spots saw significant visitor increases, with some locations reporting over 30% growth compared to 2023 [18][19]. Local Consumption - Restaurant dining saw a 33.4% increase in average daily consumption compared to 2023, while the film industry experienced a decline in box office revenue by 23.1% [21][22]. - The report notes that the film industry's performance was affected by a weaker supply since the summer season [22]. Conclusion - Overall, the report emphasizes a stable growth in consumption data during the National Day holiday, with structural changes indicating a shift towards larger purchases and increased activity in lower-tier cities [24].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate market, suggesting a potential stabilization following recent government policies aimed at boosting market confidence [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate market is experiencing a marginal increase in activity during the National Day holiday, particularly in first-tier cities, with Shenzhen showing exceptional performance [1][4]. - A series of supportive policies were introduced in late September, including financial measures to stimulate both supply and demand, marking a significant shift in government stance towards stabilizing the real estate market [2][3]. - The report notes a clear differentiation in market performance between cities, with first-tier cities and select second-tier cities seeing stronger sales compared to others [4][5]. Policy Summary - The government has introduced five financial support measures aimed at both supply and demand sides of the real estate market, reflecting a commitment to stabilize the sector [2]. - First-tier cities, particularly Guangzhou, have implemented significant policy relaxations, including the complete removal of purchase restrictions, while other cities like Beijing and Shanghai have made targeted adjustments [3][4]. Sales Performance - During the National Day holiday, the average daily subscription area in 22 key cities increased by 12% month-on-month and 26% year-on-year, indicating a robust recovery in sales activity [4]. - Shenzhen's performance was particularly noteworthy, with a 345% month-on-month increase in average daily subscriptions and a 242% year-on-year increase during the holiday period [4][5]. - The second-hand housing market also showed resilience, with viewing and transaction volumes improving, although some sellers have begun to raise prices in response to market sentiment [5]. Outlook - The report emphasizes that while there is a marginal increase in market activity, the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain and will depend on the implementation and effectiveness of subsequent policies [6].

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The document does not specify a particular company or industry, focusing instead on a general disclaimer regarding the opinions expressed during the call. Core Points and Arguments - The content emphasizes that the views expressed by the speakers are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice [1] - It highlights the importance of obtaining prior written permission from the relevant securities firm before recording or disseminating any information from the call [1] - The document asserts that any unauthorized reproduction or modification of the content will result in the preservation of all legal rights by the firm [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The document serves primarily as a legal disclaimer rather than providing substantive insights into any specific company or industry [1]

各位领导各位机构投资者下午好我是招商证券策略研究员李浩阳欢迎参加本次招商研究十月金股会议在九月的最后两周随着国新办新闻发布会以及政治局会议出台的一系列重磅政策A股市场迎来了全面的反弹而在国庆假期期间港股市场也延续了这一强势 当下市场比较关注的问题是十月份整个市场的走势以及潜在的投资机会以及哪些行业可能有超额收益率下面将由我的同事给各位领导做一个简单的汇报首先我们有请策略首席张夏总汇报十月的策略观点各位投资者大家下午好我今天呢简单汇报这个内容第一个呢就是本能行情它的一个级别或者说是一个属性 第二点呢,就是接下来的一些关键的节奏,可以参考历史的相似的行情。第三点呢,就是接下来市场如果出现调整,有些什么样的催化因素,或者说有哪些风险点值的关注。最后呢,就是这种行情啊,我们的市场主线应该是什么? 那首先第一点我们如何去理解这波行情那实际上呢这波行情是在市场经历过一个漫长的三年下跌之后不断缩掉那最终呢是由于政策的一个转折出现了一波比较大的上行这个在历史当中呢也是反复的出现啊尤以这个99年的519行情然后是这个19年啊09年当时是这个苏安英的政策刺激然后是19年啊对于民营写书控政策一个全面的定调的转变那么这些呢都还有包括 ...

Monetary Policy - The central bank announced a 50 basis points (bp) reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term stable liquidity to the financial market[3] - The recent interest rate cuts, including a 20 bp decrease in the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.5% and a 30 bp decrease in the 1-year MLF rate to 2.0%, are expected to lower the LPR by 20-25 bp, reducing the interest burden on the real economy by about 1.3 trillion yuan[5] - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates is projected to save households approximately 150 billion yuan annually in interest payments[5] Real Estate Support - The minimum down payment for second homes has been reduced from 25% to 15%, marking a historical low and aiming to stimulate housing demand[6] - The central bank's support for affordable housing loans has increased from 60% to 100%, enhancing market incentives for banks and acquisition entities[8] - The average existing mortgage rate is expected to align closer to the new mortgage rate after a 50 bp reduction, improving consumer confidence in the housing market[7] Capital Market Support - New policy tools will inject approximately 800 billion yuan into the A-share market, significantly boosting market liquidity and investor confidence[12] - The central bank will provide 3,000 billion yuan in special loans to support stock buybacks and increases, with an interest rate of 1.75% for banks[11] Currency and Bond Market - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates have both surpassed the 7.04 mark, indicating a short-term strengthening of the currency due to improved market sentiment[14] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to stabilize around 1.9-2.0%, with limited downward space due to previous low levels and potential profit-taking by institutions[13] Support for Small and Medium Enterprises - The policy will expand the scope of loan renewals to all small and medium enterprises facing genuine financing needs, enhancing access to credit[16] - Six major commercial banks will receive additional core Tier 1 capital to strengthen their financial stability amid narrowing net interest margins[16]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has lowered the policy interest rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75-5.0%[2] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2% until 2027, above the long-term growth rate of 1.8%[2] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.4% by the end of the year and return to the natural level of 4.2% by 2027[2] Inflation and Employment - Inflation is projected to decline, with PCE inflation expected to fall to 2.3% and core PCE inflation to 2.6% by the end of the year, both lower than previous forecasts[2] - The Fed has shifted its narrative from "fighting inflation" to "stabilizing employment," indicating a balance between employment and inflation risks[2] Policy Adjustments - The Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 basis points was unexpected and reflects a recalibration of its policy stance[3] - The dot plot indicates a potential for an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, with a new target range of 4.25-4.5%[3] Market Reactions - Despite the rate cut, market interpretations lean hawkish, with the OIS curve suggesting a further 68 basis points of cuts this year[3] - U.S. Treasury yields have increased, with the 2-year yield rising to 3.62% and the 10-year yield to 3.70%[3] Future Projections - The Fed's future rate cuts are expected to be gradual, supporting rate-sensitive sectors while maintaining economic resilience[4] - The ongoing debate over the neutral interest rate is likely to become a focal point for the Fed and global markets[3]

1 宏观点评（2024 年 9 月 14 日） 稳增长"紧迫性"上升 ——中国经济数据点评（2024 年 8 月） 一、总览：供需偏弱，压力加大 8 月我国经济延续修复，但供需两端表现偏弱，增长压力有所加大。 在供给端，受需求不足、极端天气以及生产淡季等因素影响，工业生产景 气度有所回落，生产增速放缓。在需求端，外需仍有韧性，但增长前景不 确定性较高，国内投资和消费增速延续下滑，但房地产销售投资降幅收窄。 积极因素在于，宏观政策加速落实。政府债券发行提速，消费品"以旧换 新"政策落地。整体上看，8 月经济增长的主要支撑在于政策托举、出口 增长以及中央财政投资项目的持续发力，内生增长动能有待增强，实现"5% 左右"增长目标的紧迫性上升，扩内需促消费的增量工具或相机出台。 二、供给：景气平淡，增速放缓 8 月工业生产景气平淡，制造业 PMI 生产指数（49.8%）时隔 5 个月再 次陷入收缩区间，国内有效需求不足以及高温多雨天气仍是主要制约。去 年基数有所抬升，规上工业增加值同比增速加速下行 0.6pct 至 4.5%；季调 环比增速 0.32%，小幅低于上月 0.03pct。 从三大门类看，采矿业（3.7%）和 ...

Group 1: Economic Phases - The initial phase (1991-2000) saw expansive monetary and fiscal policies, but economic performance remained poor, with major asset prices continuously declining[2] - The mid-phase (2001-2012) experienced slight economic recovery due to global economic improvements, yet major asset prices remained depressed[2] - The later phase (2013-2019) involved the introduction of "Abenomics," which included aggressive monetary easing and structural reforms, leading to gradual economic recovery and rising asset prices[2] Group 2: Policy Insights - Initial policy errors included slow interest rate cuts and delayed fiscal measures, which hindered effective economic recovery[2] - The government faced challenges with policy consistency, leading to a lack of coordinated macroeconomic strategies, which resulted in missed opportunities for stabilization[2] - Lessons learned emphasize the need for timely and effective fiscal policies, avoiding rapid asset price contractions, and the necessity of structural reforms to stimulate market vitality[2]

|研究院 纽约分行 行内偕作·宏观点评 2024 年 9 月 7 日 1 回归均衡 ——美国就业数据点评（2024 年 8 月） 8 月美国就业不温不火。新增非农就业人数 14.2 万（市场预期 16.5 万）， 失业率 4.2%（市场预期 4.2%），劳动参与率 62.7%（市场预期 62.7%），平均 时薪环比增速 0.4%（市场预期 0.3%），同比增速反弹至 3.8%（市场预期 3.7%）。 一、整体：回归均衡 总体而言，美国劳动力市场基本完成正常化，供求关系回归均衡，结束 了疫情以来的大起大落。7 月职位空缺比（空缺职位/求职人数）降至 1.1 倍， 较高点（2022 年 3 月，2.0 倍）回落 0.9 倍，已经低于疫前水平（2020 年 2 月，1.2 倍）；空缺职位与就业人数之和占劳动人口的比重降至 100.4%，较高 点（2022 年 4 月，104.3%）回落 3.9pct，已经逼近疫前水平（2020 年 2 月， 100.3%）。 边际上看，"贝丽尔"飓风影响退坡，8 月就业数据有所好转。失业率回 落 0.1pct 至 4.2%，新增非农就业人数上升 5.3 万至 14.2 万，平均时薪 ...