国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 | --- | |-------| | | | | | | | --- | |-------| | | | | | | 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.17 第十一届香山论坛闭幕，"加贺"号将测试 F-35 起降 [Table_Industry] 军工 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|----------------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 彭磊 ( 分析师 ) | 周明 頔 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 010-83939806 | 010-83939792 | | | penglei018712@gtjas.com | zhoumingdi028698@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S088051810 ...

行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.17 白酒中秋平淡，啤酒环比改善 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------------|------------------------| | | | ——食品饮料行业周度更新 | | | [table_Authors] 訾猛 ( 分析师 ) | 姚世佳 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38676912 | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | yaoshijia@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880520070001 | 本报告导读： 白酒中秋相对平淡；啤酒景气环比改善；饮料行业保持结构性景气度；建议继续布 局饮料 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the cosmetics industry, consistent with the previous rating [4][5]. Core Insights - The oral care industry is experiencing new opportunities due to channel transformation and product innovation, particularly with the launch of high-end sensitive toothpaste under the Denkan brand, which has seen significant sales growth on Douyin [4][5][18]. - The third quarter is typically a slow season for beauty consumption, prompting brands to focus on new product launches in preparation for the Double Eleven shopping festival [7][8]. - Domestic beauty groups are expected to drive brand upgrades and market share through product innovation and channel expansion targeting lower-tier consumers [7][8]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks for accumulation include: 1. Strong brand momentum: Proya, Juzhibio, and Jinbo Bio, driven by single product growth. 2. Affordable consumer brands: Runben and Shuangmei, focusing on continuous channel expansion and strong operations. 3. Companies expected to reach a turning point: Denkan Oral, Furuida, Beitaini, Shanghai Jahwa, Marubi, Shuiyang, Huaxi Biological, Fulejia, and Meili Tianyuan Medical Health. 4. Companies with capacity release and overseas expansion: Jiabiyou [5][7][20]. Industry Updates - The oral care market's online retail sales reached CNY 266.6 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. Douyin has emerged as the fastest-growing channel, with growth rates of 60% in 2023 and 36% in the first half of 2024 [8][10]. - The online toothpaste market has seen a significant increase in the share of high-end products, with sales exceeding CNY 150 billion, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth [11][13]. - The trend of "beauty-ification" in toothpaste is evident, with brands focusing on unique ingredients and technologies to enhance product appeal [15][18]. Key Industry Information and Profit Forecasts - Proya has appointed a new management team, with the former general manager transitioning to an advisory role [20]. - The report provides updated profit forecasts for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several brands, with expected CAGR of 20-30% for leading companies [21][22].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.17 跳跃后再归平静，重视"死库存" [Table_Industry] 房地产 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|----------------------|---------------------------| | | | | ——地产 8 月观察 | | | [table_Authors] 谢皓宇 ( 分析师 ) | 白淑媛 ( 分析师 ) | 黄可意 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 010-83939826 | 021-38675923 | 010-83939815 | | | xiehaoyu@gtjas.com | baishuyuan@gtjas.com | huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 38.73 CNY, unchanged from the previous rating [5]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates stable overall operations, with significant growth in online channels, particularly on Douyin, indicating a solid foundation for refined operations. Future product lines in cosmetics, such as serums and masks, are expected to enhance performance [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts EPS of 1.9, 2.08, and 2.42 CNY for 2024-2026, with a revenue of 9.4 billion CNY in H1 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 3.4 billion CNY, down 4% year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales expenses from a higher online sales ratio, depreciation from the new Northern Beauty Valley base, and ongoing R&D investments [4][10]. - The gross margin stands at 81.41%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is 36.22%, an increase of 4.47 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Sales Channels - Online direct sales revenue reached 4.26 billion CNY, up 29% year-on-year, while distribution and agency sales fell by 26% to 0.46 billion CNY. Offline distribution revenue decreased by 2% to 4.67 billion CNY. The company anticipates continued growth in Douyin, projecting over 50% growth, while offline channels may face challenges due to overall traffic decline [4][10]. Product Development - The company is enhancing its online team and marketing investments, focusing on refined operations on Douyin with multiple accounts targeting different customer segments. The R&D strategy includes collaboration with institutions like the Kunming Institute of Botany and Jiangsu Juyuan to strengthen its research capabilities and develop new products in the medical and cosmetic sectors [4][10]. - The product portfolio includes medical dressings and functional skincare products, with a focus on high-end positioning in the mask category. New products such as emulsions and lactose acid masks have shown strong performance, with serums being a key focus for future development [4][10].

股 票 研 究 8 月广义基建投资增 6.2%，其中电力投资增 21.9% [Table_Industry] 建筑工程业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——建筑行业第 365 期周报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|---------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 韩其成 ( 分析师 ) | 郭浩然 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | | | 021-38676162 | 010-83939793 | | | | | | | | hanqicheng8@gtjas.com | guohaoran025968@gtjas.com | | | | | | | 登记编号 | S0880516030004 | S0880524020002 | | | | ...

股 票 研 究 行 业 周 报 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.17 ——煤炭行业周报 [table_Authors] 黄涛(分析师) 021-38674879 huangtao@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880515090001 本报告导读： 煤炭旺季延续至今，基本面向上超市场预期；长端利率继续回落的情况下，预计煤 炭拐点已然不远，看好基本面超预期背景下煤炭板块年内第二波机会。 投资要点： [投资建议： Table_Summary] 我们认为煤炭板块估值的重塑正在途中，背后反应的不仅是 煤炭行业深刻供需结构变化，逐步"公用事业化"，而且也反映了在资 产荒背景下，无风险收益率下行趋势下的高股息资产更加受到市场青睐 的投资策略问题，推荐优质的高盈利稳定性与盈利可预见性的龙头：陕 西煤业、中国神华；推荐煤电一体的新集能源，受益陕西能源；推荐长 协焦煤：恒源煤电、平煤股份、淮北矿业、山西焦煤；推荐国改领先的 央企：中煤能源；推荐基本面拐点的山煤国际。 煤炭板块回调，但基本面向上，长端利率继续回落，煤炭拐点已然不远。 据 CCTD 数据，截至 2024 年 9 月第二周沿海 8 省日耗为 ...

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.17 策 略 研 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Chemical product prices are expected to show significant differentiation in September and October 2024, with a focus on products with good market conditions and upward demand elasticity, such as MDI, sweeteners, viscose filament, and refrigerants [3][14] - The industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with a gradual shift towards optimism as the reversal forces are developing [14][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on industry leaders with resilient performance and cost advantages, particularly in sub-sectors like MDI, coal chemical, spandex, and titanium dioxide [14][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance and Price Tracking - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 2.23%, while the basic chemical index fell by 2.06% during the week of September 9-13 [4][9] - Key price increases included natural rubber (+8.67%) and paraxylene (+7.13%) [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical, and others, focusing on those with strong earnings trends [14][15][20] - The report highlights the potential for companies like Dongyue Group and Yonghe Shares to benefit from industry trends [14][15] Key Company Tracking - Wanhua Chemical's MDI prices showed slight decreases, while polymer MDI prices increased [17] - Hualu Hengsheng's revenue from its Jingzhou base reached 3.79 billion yuan, with ongoing projects expected to enhance efficiency [19] - Juhua Co. reported a 70.31% increase in net profit for Q2 2024, maintaining its position as a leader in refrigerant quotas [20] - Sailun Tire achieved record production and sales, with a 105.77% increase in net profit for the first half of 2024 [22] Sub-industry Tracking - The new materials sector is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in areas with high technological barriers and market trends, such as adsorption resins and nano-silica [26]

大 类 资 产 配 置 主 动 资 产 配 置 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 大类资产配置 /[Table_Date] 2024.09.17 全球经济不确定性增加或加剧日股波动 [Table_Authors] 王子翌(分析师) 021-38038293 wangziyi027313@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523050004 ——大类资产配置周度点评（20240917） 本报告导读： 我们维持此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。上周，境内主动资产配置组合收益率为 0.23%，基准指数收益率为-0.95%，超额收益率为 1.18%；全球主动资产配置组合 收益率为 1.38%，基准指数收益率为 1.14%，超额收益率为 0.24%。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 我们对于国债仍维持超配观点，利率中枢或仍有下行动能，当前债 券的波动有所减弱，配置性价比有所提升。在融资需求偏弱，资产 供给尚未成规模的信贷供需不平衡的客观背景下，利率上行幅度有 限。央行密切关注过度交易长端债券导致的潜在风险，利率后续下 行空间与动能相较于前期有所收敛。 我们对于日股仍维持标配观点，但边际上更为谨慎，主要源于全 ...