股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 | 10,124 | 10,222 | 14,843 | 19,883 | 23,970 | | (+/-)% | 10.7% | 1.0% | 45.2% | 34.0% | 20.6% | | 净利润（归母） | 451 | 598 | 1,200 | 1,617 | 2,101 | | (+/-)% | 9.9% | 32.5% | 100.6% | 34.8% | 29.9% | | 每股净收益（元） | 6.30 | 8.35 | 16.74 | 22.57 | 29.32 | | 净资产收益率 (%) | 9.2% | 11.0% | 19 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.07 加快构建新型电力系统，推荐中国能建、中国电建等 [Table_Industry] 建筑工程业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------|---------------------------| | | 韩其成(分析师) | 郭浩然(分析师) | | | 021-38676162 | 010-83939793 | | | hanqicheng8@gtjas.com | guohaoran025968@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030004 | S0880524020002 | 本报告导读： 发改委等部门印发《加快构建新型电力系统行动方案》，提出 2024—2027 年重点开 展电力系统稳定保障等 ...

摘要： 投资建议：基于《消费品投资进阶之道》研究框架，我们长期看好中国消费龙头的投资机会，尤其是具备一流的商业模式&生意特性、市场前景广阔、成长逻辑清 晰、行业竞争格局持续改善的龙头企业，有望在中长期维度上展现其投资价值。 消费需求是拉动经济增长的核心力量，没有消费需求，就没有经济发展。在经济学中，消费被视为生产活动的最终目的和检验标准，只有当产品或服务被消费时， 整个生产过程才算真正完成。消费作为第三产业的重要组成部分，其增长能够带动相关行业的发展，成为国民经济和吸纳就业的重要产业，对拉动经济增长的作用 越来越强（2023年消费支出占GDP的比重达到54.7%，成为经济增长的主要贡献者，最终消费支出对GDP增长的贡献达到82%，消费是真正意义上经济增长 的"稳定器"和"压舱石"）。 人口趋势、居民收入是影响消费需求的核心要素，直拨决定消费市场的规模和结构。人口趋势对消费需求的影响主要体现在人口数量和结构的变化上，随着人口数 量的增长，消费需求自然会增加（更多的人意味着更多的消费），并且不同年龄段的消费群体有着不同的消费偏好品类（例如60岁以上老年群体在医疗健康、旅游 养老等方面的需求旺盛，而17岁以下青少年 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.07 单一产品优势削弱，投顾能力重要性突出 投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Industry] [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——2024 年 6 月财富管理业务月报 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------| | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 王思玥(研究助理) | 吴浩东(分析师) | | | 021-38676647 | 021-38031024 | 010-83939780 | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | wangsiyue028676@gtjas.com | wuhaodong029780@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515050001 | S0880123070151 | S0880524070001 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资银行业与经纪业《保险负债成本加速下移 ...

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.07 [细分行业评级 Table_subIndustry] [Table_Report] 相关报告 本报告导读： 投资要点： | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------------------------|----------------------------|-------------------------| | | 于鸿光(分析师) | 孙辉贤(研究助理) | 汪玥(研究助理) | | | 021-38031730 | 021-38038670 | 021-38031030 | | | yuhongguang025906@gtjas.com | sunhuixian026739@gtjas.com | wangyue028681@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522020001 | S0880122070052 | S0880123070143 | ——三部委《加快构建新型电力系统行动方案》点评 公用事业《消纳责任权重提升，绿证核发 ...

每周一景：新疆天山托木尔峰 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 今 日 重 点 推 荐 【策略】美国大选的近与远 特朗普的"美国优先"与哈里斯的"包容发展"。1）特朗普执政方针更强调美国优先，"减税"、"贸易保护"、"制造业 回流"、"能源独立"、"加强边境管控"、"结束战争"是其关键词。2）哈里斯执政方针更强调公平、开放和绿色，相较 而言"更激进的加税"，"强调绿色能源"，"不秉持贸易保护主义"，"支持乌克兰和以色列援助"是其鲜明特征。对于中 美关系而言，特朗普政策更加激进。倾向于单边行动和直接对抗，而哈里斯则倾向多边合作与战略竞争。 特朗普交易2.0：今时不同往日。（1）特朗普交易1.0下，市场预期特朗普政策指向"经济增长+通货膨胀"，资产走 势呈现出"风险资产涨+避险资产跌"、"美股小盘优于大盘，价值优于成长"、"A股整体走势相对独立+周期类行业短 期跑赢"的三重分化。（2）特朗普交易2.0下，与1.0相比，开启时间早、特朗普胜选概率高、宏观经济地缘环境复 杂、降息交易地缘交易交织、市场预期特朗普政策指向"再通胀"。1.0下资产走势的三重分化因此被不同程度地打破。 （3）大选11月"靴子落地"前，2.0如何演绎 ...

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 ——煤炭行业更新报告 [table_Authors] 黄涛(分析师) 021-38674879 huangtao@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880515090001 本报告导读： 预计此轮美国降息对国内煤价影响有限，中国煤炭价格的涨跌更多反应国内煤炭行 业供需格局变化；高股息红利资产仍是中长期重要投资方向。 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.06 全球视角看美国经济下行周期对中国煤炭影响 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 煤炭《日耗维持高位，预判拐点在 8 月底至 9 月 上旬》2024.08.05 煤炭《国君煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20240804》2024.08.04 煤炭《日耗攀升至 5 年最高点，基本面悲观有望 触底》2024.07.29 煤炭《国君煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20240728》2024.07.28 煤炭《后市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Sanjiu (华润三九) [4][5] Core Views - The company plans to acquire a 28% stake in Tianjin Tasly Pharmaceutical (天士力), which is expected to enhance its competitive advantage through industrial synergy and innovation in traditional Chinese medicine [4] - The target price has been raised to 62.88 CNY, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24x for 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company intends to purchase 418 million shares of Tianjin Tasly at a price of 14.85 CNY per share, totaling approximately 6.212 billion CNY [4] - Post-acquisition, China Resources Sanjiu will become the controlling shareholder of Tianjin Tasly, with a voting rights ratio not exceeding 12.5008% [4] Competitive Advantages - The acquisition is expected to strengthen the company's core competitiveness in two main areas: industrial synergy and innovation [4] - Tianjin Tasly is a leading enterprise in modern traditional Chinese medicine, focusing on cardiovascular, digestive metabolism, and oncology fields, which will complement China Resources Sanjiu's strengths in over-the-counter (OTC) channels [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 2.62 CNY, 2.92 CNY, and 3.17 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][12] - Revenue is projected to grow from 24.739 billion CNY in 2023 to 34.215 billion CNY by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.8% [12][14] Market Position - The company has a strong brand effect and is expected to leverage Tianjin Tasly's research and development capabilities to enhance its product pipeline [4] - The report highlights that Tianjin Tasly's R&D investment accounted for 17.7% of its pharmaceutical revenue in 2023, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 28.88 CNY [10][15]. Core Views - The company continues to lead the global market in ternary cathode shipments, with a second-quarter performance showing sequential improvement. The overseas production capacity for ternary products and the accelerated development of new products such as manganese iron lithium and sodium-ion cathodes are expected to drive ongoing revenue growth [2][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of 6.888 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 46.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10 million CNY, down 97.3% year-on-year. However, the second quarter showed signs of recovery with a revenue of 3.196 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 29.4%, and a net profit of 48 million CNY, down 30.5% year-on-year [10]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 30.123 billion CNY, which decreased to 22.657 billion CNY in 2023, and is projected to further decline to 15.045 billion CNY in 2024, before recovering to 18.040 billion CNY in 2025 and 18.390 billion CNY in 2026 [11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.353 billion CNY in 2022, dropping to 581 million CNY in 2023, and is expected to decline further to 279 million CNY in 2024, before increasing to 533 million CNY in 2025 and 740 million CNY in 2026 [11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.58 CNY in 2024, 1.10 CNY in 2025, and 1.53 CNY in 2026 [10][11]. Market Position - The company maintained a leading market share in ternary cathodes, with a sales volume of 54,900 tons in the first half of 2024, an increase of 18.17% year-on-year. The high-nickel product sales reached 52,700 tons, up 16.82% year-on-year, capturing a domestic market share of 39% and a global market share of 20% [10]. - The proportion of sales to overseas customers increased significantly to 17%, up 16 percentage points year-on-year, indicating an improvement in customer structure [10]. Strategic Developments - The company has made strategic investments in global expansion, manganese iron lithium, and sodium-ion cathodes, which are expected to contribute to future growth. The first phase of the 20,000 tons/year production line in South Korea has been completed and is set to begin large-scale supply in the third quarter [10]. - The company has also achieved significant growth in manganese iron lithium shipments, with 2,400 tons shipped in the first half of 2024, a 166% increase year-on-year [10].

摘要： 投资建议：特朗普再度角逐美国大选，如果特朗普胜出，美国贸易保护加强，本土新能源政策可能波动，短期影响美国市场新能源汽车需求，中长期不改全球电动 化趋势。2023-2024年中国的头部车企和汽车零部件供应商提前布局海外市场，全球贸易保护主义环境下，本地化生产大势所趋，中国汽车产业链有望加速出 海，在海外继续发挥制造优势，孕育全球化巨头企业，推荐具备全球化生产和竞争能力的龙头整车和汽车零部件企业。 特朗普更支持传统能源，如果胜出有可能减少对电动车的产业支持。参考特朗普上一届在任时期政策和本次竞选纲领，特朗普更支持传统能源，并多次批评美国现 有电动汽车政策。现任总统拜登通过补贴、税收抵免、基础设施建设等多重方式大力发展能源转型和电动汽车产业，拜登执政的2021-2023年新能源汽车销量实 现高速增长。"拯救汽车产业"是特朗普本次竞选的重要议题，如果特朗普胜出，汽车产业是其重点的政策方向之一，考虑其更支持传统能源，美国现有的新能源汽 车支持政策有可能出现波动。 美国如果继续加征关税，中国对美零部件出口短期会承压，对整车的影响较小、关税是特朗普竞选的政策组合的重点之一，如果特朗普胜出有可能对全球加征关税 同时对 ...