Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utilities sector, specifically focusing on the power industry [2][4] Core Views - The report argues that "reducing electricity prices" is no longer the core policy focus in the new cycle of building a new power system, with limited downside risks for long-term contract electricity prices in 2025 [2][4] - The government's priority has shifted to "ensuring power supply security" and "low-carbon transformation," with electricity price stability expected to drive a revaluation of power assets [4][9] - The report highlights that the historical trend of electricity price increases has outpaced overall industrial product prices, with the electricity industry PPI index rising by 558% from 1979 to 2023, compared to a 197% increase in the overall industrial PPI index [8][14] Industry Analysis Historical Electricity Price Trends - The report divides China's electricity price development into five stages, emphasizing the balance between "supply security" and "low prices" [15][16] - **1985 and before**: Highly planned pricing era with limited supply growth [16] - **1986-1997**: Debt repayment pricing era, encouraging investment with significant price increases [17][18] - **1998-2004**: Operational period pricing era, aiming to control price increases while maintaining investment [19][22] - **2005-2021**: Benchmark pricing and market reform era, with electricity price increases lagging behind industrial prices [24][25] - **2022 and beyond**: New power system era, with electricity prices rising faster than industrial prices [28][29] New Power System Challenges - The report identifies challenges in the new power system, including peak load demand, increasing renewable energy integration, and high energy prices [30][31] - The government's focus has shifted to ensuring power supply security and low-carbon transformation, with less emphasis on reducing electricity prices [9][33] Regional Power Supply and Demand - The report provides a detailed analysis of regional power supply and demand from 2016 to 2024, highlighting tight supply in certain regions during peak periods [32][33] - In 2024, the national power supply and demand are expected to remain tight, with regional differences in long-term contract electricity prices [54][58] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on power companies in regions with tight supply-demand conditions, such as the Yangtze River Delta, and vertically integrated coal-power companies [4][63] - Specific recommendations include: - **Hydropower**: Yangtze Power, Sichuan Energy [4][63] - **Thermal Power**: Guodian Power, Shenergy, Inner Mongolia Huadian [4][63] - **Nuclear Power**: CGN Power (H), China National Nuclear Power [4][63] Market and Policy Dynamics - The report notes that local governments prioritize reducing industrial electricity costs rather than lowering coal-power prices, with limited impact on long-term contract prices [40][41] - The share of high-energy-consuming industries in electricity consumption is declining, reducing the sensitivity of industrial users to electricity costs [44][46] - The report predicts that the downward pressure on coal-power long-term contract prices in 2025 will be limited, with regional variations [53][54]

摘要 : 投资建议：综合来看，品类集中白电、其余品类布局完善，下沉渠道覆盖度高且在各地有销售实体执行能力强的龙头 公司最具增长弹性与持续性。 品类：量价弹性分化,白电综合受益最明显。品类销量增速弹性上,清洁电器、空调、厨电(除集成灶)相对表现更 好（国补后线上累计增速分别为186%/62%/50%+）。以旧换新刺激下，需求弹性或与各品类的保有量基数与提升 空间有关：传统大电相较新兴家电具有更大的换新基数。同时，线上平台逐步打通国补，叠加双十一大促，新兴品 类，例如清洁电器，销量大幅提升（W41至W43，扫地机线上销量累计增速从+48%提升至186%）；价格方面，补 贴影响对于彩电、冰洗的均价同比增长超10%，其结构提升程度在品类间对比相对更明显，黑白电企业在24Q4或迎 来价格层面的正向业绩贡献；而集成灶、清洁电器等竞争程度更为激烈的子行业均价受补贴政策正向拉动作用相对较 小。综合量价来看，白电受益最明显。 地域：重视广大下沉市场潜力。我们预计11月中旬2024年全国以旧换新家电部分资金池使用将达到70%。综合各地 官方披露的补贴资金使用进度以及各省份家电品类销售增长表现，预计前期补贴落地较晚，资金使用偏低的 ...

书编号: S0880514030006 交通运输首席分析师 特朗普宣布当选美国总统，或将多重影响交运行业。2024年11月6日，特朗普宣布在2024年第60届美国总统选举中 获胜。参考其竞选主张与政策立场，预计或将多重影响交运行业。1）美国原油增产。业界预期若未来有效增产，油价 中枢或承压。2）地缘冲突缓解：若俄乌战争或红海冲突缓解，或影响目前贸易运输格局。3）汇率：相关政策或影响 人民币兑美元汇率。4）关注关税政策及相关可能影响：关税影响程度与节奏有待具体措施。 航空：具有油价下跌期权，建议淡季逆向布局。燃油成本占航司成本近四成，根据2024年中报静态测算，若航油采购 均价下降10%，估算国航/东航/南航/吉祥/春秋年化分别增加净利41/35/42/5.3/4.7亿元。提示，燃油成本缩减的留 存程度取决于供需。新航季国内减班国际增班持续，且国内需求有望政策提振，预计供需继续恢复趋势确定。油价压 力改善或将助力旺季盈利展现超预期弹性，催化市场乐观预期。航空仍是极少数具有超预期大逻辑的行业，待供需恢 复，考虑票价市场化与机队增速放缓，盈利中枢上升将超预期。高油价下，中国航司Q3盈利已连续两年超过2019年 同期 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Short-term investment recommendation: Focus on demand recovery elasticity [1] Core Views - Domestic demand improvement expectations are heating up, with the liquor industry showing significant elasticity [1] - The liquor industry is expected to see a strong recovery in valuations, with stock prices potentially bottoming out ahead of fundamental recovery [1] - The industry is currently in a phase of inventory digestion and price stabilization, with leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye implementing measures to maintain price systems [2] - By 2025, market share logic will replace price logic, with leading companies expected to adjust product structures and price systems to adapt to external demand environments [2] - Short-term focus is on elasticity, while medium-term focus shifts to performance and market share [3] Short-term Strategy - Short-term investment strategy prioritizes stocks with high elasticity in demand recovery, particularly in the sub-premium liquor segment [3] - Small and mid-cap stocks like Shedejiu, Shuijingfang, and Jiuguijiu are expected to show relative gains due to optimized trading structures [3] Medium-term Strategy - Medium-term strategy emphasizes performance and market share, with leading companies across various price segments expected to emerge from adjustments or achieve market share gains [3] - Companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Yingjiagongjiu, Jinshiyuan, and Gujinggongjiu are highlighted for their performance certainty [3] Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to remain in an adjustment phase for several quarters, but leading companies are planning for growth, with Moutai at the core of these plans [2] - The 2025 Spring Festival is identified as a key observation point for market share dynamics [2]

股 票 研 究 ——兰生股份 2024Q3 业绩点评 对外投资打开想象空间，大满贯候选赛事带来发展机遇 兰生股份(600826) 批零贸易业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|------------------------------| | | | | | | [table_Authors] 刘越男 ( 分析师 ) | 赵国振 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38677706 | 021-38031044 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | zhaoguozhen028586@gtjas.co m | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880524030006 | 本报告导读： 公司主营业务稳健，对外投资设立子公司打开想象空间，入选大满贯候选赛事带来 发展机遇。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 考虑公司主营业务恢复和金融资产变动公允价值收益的增加，上调 2024/25/26 年 EPS 为 0.38/ ...

Investment Rating and Core Views - The report initiates coverage on Hubei Yihua with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of CNY 21.28, representing a 50% upside from the current price of CNY 14.18 [2] - Hubei Yihua is a leading chemical enterprise with improving profitability through upstream mineral resource integration, midstream raw material support, and downstream high-value product extension [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 17.44 billion, CNY 17.58 billion, and CNY 18.27 billion for 2024-2026, with net profits of CNY 1.01 billion, CNY 1.24 billion, and CNY 1.59 billion, respectively [4] Business and Industry Analysis - Hubei Yihua's main products include urea, phosphate fertilizers, and PVC, all of which face supply constraints due to strict capacity controls [4] - The fertilizer sector is expected to maintain its prosperity, with urea and phosphate fertilizer prices remaining stable due to steady demand growth in agricultural planting areas [4] - The chlor-alkali industry is likely to see optimized supply-demand dynamics, with PVC demand expected to recover due to potential real estate stimulus policies [4] Financial Performance and Projections - Hubei Yihua's revenue is projected to grow modestly from CNY 17.44 billion in 2024 to CNY 18.27 billion in 2026, with net profit margins improving from 9.1% to 13.9% over the same period [8] - The company's EPS is forecasted to increase from CNY 0.93 in 2024 to CNY 1.46 in 2026, driven by improved profitability and asset integration [4] - Key financial ratios such as ROE are expected to rise from 13.1% in 2024 to 16.8% in 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [8] Valuation and Peer Comparison - Using PE valuation, Hubei Yihua is assigned a 2025 PE multiple of 18.0x, implying a fair value of CNY 20.58 per share [17] - Based on PB valuation, the company is given a 2025 PB multiple of 2.0x, suggesting a fair value of CNY 21.99 per share [17] - The final target price of CNY 21.28 is derived from the average of the PE and PB valuation methods, representing a 2025 PE of 18.6x [19] Strategic Developments and Asset Integration - Hubei Yihua is expected to further integrate high-quality assets, including the remaining 39.4% equity of Xinjiang Yihua and the 1.5 million-ton phosphorus mine in Jiangjiadun [4] - The company's relocation projects and technological upgrades are anticipated to enhance product profitability and cost efficiency [4] - The integration of Xinjiang Yihua's coal resources and Jiangjiadun's phosphorus resources will strengthen the company's cost advantages in fertilizer production [4]

股 票 研 究 ——叉车行业专题研究 [table_Authors] 肖群稀(分析师) 刘麒硕(研究助理) 0755-23976830 0755-23976666 xiaoqunxi027589@gtjas.com liuqishuo028693@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880522120001 S0880123070153 证 券 研 究 报 告 他山之石，以海外叉车龙头看中国叉车全球化路径 [Table_Industry] 叉车 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.08 [Table_Report] 相关报告 安徽合力《业绩短期承压，看好国际化进展—— 安徽合力 2024 年三季报点评》2024.11.5 机械行业《推进中国式现代化，看好科技驱动赛 道》2024.10.20 本报告导读： 国内叉车企业立足国内布局全球，具备天时地利人和，预计杭叉集团、安徽合力海 外市场将持续发力，带动企业业绩成长。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：以海外五大叉车企业发展史为鉴，我们认为国内叉车出 口正当时，基于行 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an **Overweight** rating to the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1][2] Core Views - **TikTok's Commercialization Potential**: TikTok is expected to reach a revenue range of $2682-4534 billion by 2029, driven by its advertising and e-commerce growth, following the success of Douyin in China [1][3] - **Douyin's Dominance in China**: Douyin has achieved significant milestones, including being the top advertising platform and the fourth-largest e-commerce platform in China, with a total revenue exceeding 5500 billion yuan in 2023 [1][3] - **TikTok's User Growth**: TikTok's MAU is projected to surpass 3 billion by 2029, with significant growth potential in global markets, particularly outside China [3][5] Industry Overview - **Douyin's Market Position**: Douyin has become the largest short-video platform in China with 780 million MAU as of June 2024, surpassing Kuaishou, which has 427 million MAU [5][6] - **Douyin's Revenue Streams**: Douyin's revenue is diversified across advertising, e-commerce, gaming, and local services, with advertising contributing 4000 billion yuan in 2023, making it the largest internet advertising company in China [6][13] - **TikTok's Global Expansion**: TikTok has 158 billion MAU globally as of April 2024, making it the fifth-largest social media platform, with significant room for growth in markets outside China [3][25] Advertising and E-commerce Growth - **TikTok's Advertising Revenue**: TikTok's global advertising revenue reached $132 billion in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 45%-63% from 2024 to 2029, potentially reaching $1177-2224 billion by 2029 [3][48] - **TikTok's E-commerce Potential**: TikTok's e-commerce revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 61-74% from 2024 to 2029, potentially reaching $1506-2310 billion by 2029 [3][48] - **Douyin's E-commerce Success**: Douyin's e-commerce GMV reached 27 trillion yuan in 2023, nearly doubling year-over-year, positioning it as the fourth-largest e-commerce platform in China [6][22] User Growth and Market Penetration - **TikTok's User Penetration**: TikTok's penetration rate outside China is 416%, compared to Douyin's 632% penetration rate in China, indicating significant growth potential in global markets [3][39] - **TikTok's Regional Growth**: Asia is TikTok's largest market, with Indonesia, the US, and Brazil being the top three countries by user count, contributing significantly to its global user base [36][37] Investment Opportunities - **Advertising-Related Companies**: Companies with long-term partnerships with TikTok, such as advertising agencies, are expected to benefit from TikTok's advertising growth [3] - **E-commerce and Content Providers**: Companies actively building TikTok live-streaming teams and content providers are likely to benefit from TikTok's e-commerce expansion [3] - **Tool and Content Suppliers**: As TikTok expands its content creation and distribution, companies providing tools and content are expected to see growth opportunities [3]

股 票 研 究 [table_Authors] 丁丹(分析师) 甘坛焕(分析师) 赵峻峰(分析师) 0755-23976735 021-38675855 0755-23976629 dingdan@gtjas.com gantanhuan028803@gtjas.com zhaojunfeng@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880514030001 S0880523080007 S0880519080017 证 券 研 究 报 告 板块分化，把握创新与复苏主线 [Table_Industry] 医药 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——医药板块 2024 三季报总结 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.08 本报告导读： 2024Q1-3 多数医药子版块业绩承压，有望环比改善，化药、生物药稳定增长，降本 增效下有望持续驱动增长。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] CXO/API 板块：Q3 经营趋势好转，Q4 有望进一步延续。2024Q1- Q3，海外投融资持续好转，国内投融资有所承压，CXO 扣除大订单 基数常规业务恢复增长，新签/在手订单趋势好 ...

Market Index ETF Growth - The size of major market index ETFs (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) reached 10,485 billion, 1,717 billion, 1,716 billion, and 1,501 billion yuan respectively by October 2024, representing a 409% increase compared to the end of 2021 and a 219% increase in 2024[3][10] Index Component Adjustment Predictions - CSI 300 is expected to adjust 14 stocks, with predicted additions including Huadian Power, Xinyisheng, and Juhua Group, and passive net buying amounts estimated at 2.8 billion, 2.4 billion, and 1.8 billion yuan respectively[4] - CSI 500 is expected to adjust 50 stocks, with predicted additions including Loongson Technology, Proya, and BAIC BluePark, and passive net buying amounts estimated at 1.3 billion, 1.3 billion, and 800 million yuan respectively[4] - CSI 1000 is expected to adjust 100 stocks, with predicted additions including Zhongke Feice, Longqi Technology, and Jindi Group[4] Historical Index Adjustment Performance - Since the second half of 2019, CSI 300 single adjustment absolute return was 14.19%, with a long-short return of 17.02%, and annual adjustment absolute return was 30.39%, with a long-short return of 35.97%[2][9] - CSI 500 single adjustment absolute return was 9.63%, with a long-short return of 14.08%, and annual adjustment absolute return was 20.18%, with a long-short return of 28.89%[2][9] Index Adjustment Prediction Accuracy - Historical prediction accuracy for CSI 300 additions and deletions averaged 87% and 91% respectively, with coverage rates of 89% and 93%[74] - CSI 500 prediction accuracy for additions and deletions averaged 77% and 91%, with coverage rates of 77% and 91%[74] - CSI 1000 prediction accuracy for additions and deletions averaged 66% and 75%, with coverage rates of 66% and 75%[74] Passive Buying and Selling Estimates - For CSI 300, predicted additions like Huadian Power and Xinyisheng have estimated passive net buying amounts of 2.8 billion and 2.4 billion yuan, while deletions like Wuxi AppTec and Beijing Junzheng have estimated passive net selling amounts of 690 million and 690 million yuan[79] - For CSI 500, predicted additions like OFILM and Runhe Software have estimated passive net buying amounts of 1.3 billion and 1.3 billion yuan, while deletions like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Shenhuo Co. have estimated passive net selling amounts of 840 million and 790 million yuan[84]