行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月08日 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.国芯科技(688262.SH): 定制量产订单充沛,车规MCU 和RAID芯片放量在即——公司 简评报告 1. 新《措施》助力打造电子产品消 费新场景,2024Q3存储合约价季涨 幅环比收敛(20240624- 20240630) 2. HarmonyOS NEXT、盘古大模型 5.0亮相,尽显华为系统级AI生态建 设——电子行业周报(20240617- 20240623) 3. Apple Intelligence强力赋能终端 应用,中芯国际一季度市占率跃升 第三——电子行业周报 (20240610-20240616) [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle] 《指南》落实AI产业标准化方向, WAIC 2024共商AI领域向善治理 ——电子行业周报2024/7/1-2024/7/7 ...

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月08日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王珏人 S0630523100001 wjr@longone.com.cn 联系人 付天赋 ftfu@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -51% -40% -29% -18% -7% 4% 15% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:电力设备(0763) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.成长性+稳健性兼备,电力改革助 推行业优势持续 ——电力行业深度 报告系列一 2.风光新增装机继续上升,硅片试探 性涨价 ——新能源电力行业周报 (2024/06/24-2024/06/28) 3.虚拟电厂调峰落地,构网型储能热 度提升——电池及储能行业周报 (20240624-20240630) [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 光伏硅片试探性涨价 ],海风建设稳步推 进 ...

[证券分析师： Table_Authors] 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn 4. 市场数据 美国经济延续降温。1）美国 6 月 PMI 低于预期，其中服务业明显走弱。美国 6 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 为 48.5，连续三个月走低，预期 49.1，前值 48.7；非制造业 PMI 为 48.8，为 2020 年 5 月以来新低，大幅低于预期 52.5 和前值 53.8。美国 6 月制造业 PMI 延续回落， 服务业 PMI 超预期大幅下滑至收缩区间，显示美国经济继续放缓。2）美国就业市场降温， ADP 新增就业连续下降、初请失业金人数上升。美联储衡量就业市场紧俏程度的职位空缺 数与失业人数之比从今年年初的 1.43 回落至 5 月的 1.22，与 2019 年基本相当，劳工供求 逐渐趋于平衡有助于服务通胀的回落。 6 月 CPI 出台后，9 月降息的市场预期可能进一步上升，但未来仍有变数。由于原油价 格仅有小幅回升、薪资增速走弱，且房租价格仍在降温，6 月美国 CPI 可能进一步回落。当 前市场预期 6 月 CPI 同比从 3.3%降至 3.1%，核心 CPI ...

宏观简评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------|-------| | 图 8 萨姆规则下的衰退指标，% | 图 9 | | 联邦基金利率期货计价的降息预期，%，次 | | | 10 | 5.4 | | | 0.0 | | 8 | 5.2 | | | -0.5 | | 6 | 5.0 | | | -1.0 | | 4 | 4.8 | | | -1.5 | | 2 | 4.6 | | | -2.0 | | 0 | | | | | | -2 | 4.4 | | | -2.5 | | 1959-12 1971-10 1977-09 1983-08 1989-07 1995-06 2001-05 2007-04 2013-03 2019-02 1965-11 | 4.2 | 当前 | 09/18/2 ...

本周外资净流出、融资余额减少。7 月 5 日当周，北向资金累计净流出 139.47 亿元， 融资余额累计减少 69.06 亿元 ( 截至 7 月 4 日 )。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 1.国家主席习近平出席上海合作组织成员国元首理事会第二十四次会议 《人工智能全球治理上海宣言》提到，促进人工智能发展，释放人工智能在医疗、教 育、交通、工业等各领域的应用潜力；维护人工智能安全；构建人工智能治理体系。 会议指出，当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能不强，通胀出现高位回落 趋势但仍具粘性，主要经济体经济增长和货币政策有所分化。我国经济运行仍面临有效需 求不足、社会预期偏弱等挑战。要精准有效实施稳健的货币政策，更加注重做好逆周期调 节，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，着力扩大内需、提振信心，推动经济 良性循环。 （信息来源：中国证监会） 7 月 4 日，美联储公布 7 月货币政策会议纪要。"绝大多数"美联储官员评估称，经济 增长似乎正在放缓，他们认为目前的政策立场是限制性的。核心 PCE 涨幅较小，表明通胀 取得了明显进展。不过，美联储官员也表示，在"有更多信 ...

行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 [证Table_Authors] 券分析师 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 梁帅奇 S0630524070001 lsqi@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -40% -32% -23% -14% -6% 3% 12% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [相table_product] 关研究 1.设备更新政策有助需求释放,长期 关注海外拓展及创新进程——机械 设 备 行 业 周 报 ( 20240624- 20240630) [table_main] 投资要点: [table_invest] 超配 [Table_NewTitle 工具行业跟踪:海外库存有望回归正 ] 轨,锂电化进程持续推进 ——机械设备行业周报(20240701-20240705) ➢ 海外渠道商逐渐走出库存扰动期,有望带动工具行业订单修复。过去几年,外部宏观因素 对美国五金工具、园林工具等商品零售造成扰动。2020年,因海运运力不足、供应链调整 等情况,部分 ...

Automotive Industry - Changan Automobile's June 2024 wholesale sales reached 225,000 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.30% and a month-on-month increase of 8.81% [5] - Changan's self-owned passenger vehicle sales in June 2024 were 138,300 units, up 0.12% year-on-year and 12.23% month-on-month [5] - Changan Ford's June 2024 sales were 19,500 units, down 3.18% year-on-year but up 8.98% month-on-month [5] - Changan Mazda's June 2024 sales were 5,535 units, down 25.31% year-on-year and 7.18% month-on-month [5] - Changan's self-owned new energy vehicle sales in June 2024 reached 63,600 units, up 60.03% year-on-year and 15.63% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 33.66% [26] - Avatr, a Changan brand, signed a strategic cooperation agreement with AL SAQER GROUP in the UAE, aiming to expand its presence in the Middle East market [10] - Avatr will be the first to adopt Huawei's Qiankun ADS 3.0 system, featuring advanced autonomous driving capabilities and triple LiDAR [11][28] Power Industry - China's electricity consumption in 2023 grew by 6.70%, with an electricity elasticity coefficient of 1.29 [13] - In Q1 2024, the electricity elasticity coefficient rose to 2.35, with electricity consumption growing by 9.80% [13] - China's total electricity consumption is expected to reach 98,556.06 billion kWh in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.85% [13] - The national power generation is projected to reach 102,151.81 billion kWh in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.66% [14] - The power market has formed four trading forms: medium and long-term trading, spot trading, auxiliary trading, and capacity trading, with green certificate trading supporting environmental value [15] - The power industry is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms, with growth and defensive advantages, particularly for leading companies in thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and green power [17] Market Commentary - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with a significant increase in selling pressure [21] - The semiconductor sector dropped 3.00%, with large single-day net outflows exceeding 1.8 billion yuan [37] - Only two sectors in the A-share market closed higher, with over 24% of sectors falling more than 3% [47] - The top five declining sectors included education, tourism, and real estate, with significant net outflows in sectors like semiconductors, software development, and banking [47][48]

[证券分析师 Table_Authors] 黄涵虚 S0630522060001 hhx@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈芯楠 cxn@longone.com.cn [ | 数据日期 Table_cominfo] | | |-------------------------------|---------------| | 收盘价 | | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | | | A 股 /B 股 ( 百万股 ) | 817,087/164,1 | | 资产负债率 (%) | | | 市净率 ( 倍 ) | | | 净资产收益率 ( 加权 ) | | | 个月内最高 / 最低价 | | 13.58 61 1.78 1.60 -32% -18% -4% 9% 23% 37% 51% 65% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 长安汽车 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] 《长安汽车(000625):新能源、出 口销量同环比双增,与广汽共谋高质 量发展 — — 公 司 简 评 报 告 》 2024.06.07 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件:长安汽车发布2024年6 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年7月4日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn ➢ 1.富安娜（002327）：匠心铸就艺术美学，品牌恒久远——公司深度报告 财经要闻 ➢ 2.美联储公布6月货币政策会议纪要。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 3. A 股市场评述 1. 重点推荐 == 4. 市场数据 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 晨会纪要 1.1.富安娜（002327）：匠心铸就艺术美学，品牌恒久远—— 证券分析师：谢建斌，执业证书编号：S0630522020001 公司以重投入、慢姿态的匠心精神沉淀艺术内核、夯实供应链内功，实现高毛利高净利， 铸就传统消费行业里的稀缺品牌资产。2023 年以来股价逆势上涨，一方面得益于基础扎实、 业绩兑现，另一方面作为红利资产配置价值凸显。往后看，店效修复（相较优秀水平仍存 10% 以上差距）、拓店提速（门店数落后于罗莱生活和水星家纺 1000 家以上）， ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power industry, highlighting its growth potential and defensive characteristics [3][54] Core Views - The power industry exhibits both growth and defensive attributes, driven by increasing electricity demand, stable supply, and ongoing power sector reforms [3][54] - Electricity demand is expected to grow steadily, with a projected annual increase of 6.85% in 2024, driven by terminal electrification and industrial upgrades [3][9] - The supply side is dominated by state-owned enterprises, with a stable competitive landscape and a rapid increase in the proportion of new energy sources [3][27] Demand Side Analysis - Electricity demand shows resilience to economic fluctuations, with the electricity elasticity coefficient rising to 2.35 in Q1 2024 [3][9] - Terminal electrification, industrial upgrades, and extreme weather conditions are key drivers of electricity demand growth [3][12] - The third industry, particularly sectors like wholesale, retail, and accommodation, has seen significant growth in electricity consumption, with a 12.2% increase in 2023 [13][14] - Industrial electrification is expected to reach 28.2%-30.6% by 2025, further boosting electricity demand [12] Supply Side Analysis - The power supply is steadily increasing, with new energy sources like wind and solar rapidly expanding their share in the total installed capacity [27][32] - In 2023, new solar installations reached 216.02GW, accounting for 58.53% of the total new installations, while wind power accounted for 21.52% [32] - State-owned enterprises dominate the power supply landscape, with a stable competitive structure and high barriers to entry [27][29] - The total installed capacity is expected to grow, with projections of 102151.81 billion kWh in 2024, a 14.66% increase from the previous year [3][36] Power Market and Policy Reforms - Power market reforms are accelerating, with the introduction of new rules and mechanisms to improve the efficiency and flexibility of the power system [45][46] - The power market has formed four trading types: medium and long-term trading, spot trading, auxiliary trading, and capacity trading, with green certificate trading also being introduced [3][48] - The reform aims to enhance the profitability of new energy sources and improve the valuation system of the power industry [48] Valuation and Dividend Policy - The power industry's valuation remains attractive, with high dividend payouts providing defensive advantages [51] - In 2023, the average dividend payout ratios for thermal, hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar power were 37.54%, 202.67%, 44.71%, 26.44%, and 28.39%, respectively, all higher than the CSI 300 average of 36.45% [3][51] - Policy-driven initiatives, such as state-owned enterprise valuation management, are expected to further enhance the industry's valuation [53] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in thermal, hydro, nuclear, and green power sectors, such as Huadian Power, Huaneng Power, China Yangtze Power, and China General Nuclear Power [55] - These companies are expected to benefit from the ongoing power reforms, increasing electricity demand, and favorable policy environment [54][55]