[Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月19日 [美国Table_NewTitle] 11月通胀意外放缓，但参考性降低 ——海外观察：美国2025年11月CPI数据 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 宏 观 简 评 ➢ 事件：当地时间12月18日，美国劳工局发布美国11月CPI数据，同时由于缺少10月物价调 查，大部分物价指数11月环比数据无法计算。美国11月CPI同比2.7%，预期3.1%，9月值 3.0%；核心CPI同比2.6%，预期3.0%，9月值3.0%。 ➢ 核心观点：美国11月CPI数据意外放缓，主要受家庭食品和核心服务的大幅度降温影响。 能源服务受低基数以及冬季需求影响而保持在高位。关税影响依然难以忽视，服饰、新车 和医疗用品依然保持在年内较高增速。本次最大的意外是住房市场大幅度的 ...

公 司 简 评 机 械 设 备 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：重大事项 [杰克科技 Table_NewTitle]（603337）：启航新程，科技引 领，与客户共谋全球化新篇 ——公司简评报告 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月19日 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn | [数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2025/12/18 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 39.68 | | 总股本(万股) | 47,643 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 47,373/0 | | 资产负债率(%) | 37.05% | | 市净率(倍) | 3.76 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 14.38% | | 12个月内最高/最低价 | 57.33/24.40 | [Table_QuotePic] -33% -12% 10% 32% 54% 76% 98% 120% 24-12 25-03 25-06 25-09 杰克科技 沪深300 [table_main] 投资 ...

[证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251219 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月19日 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.关注具身智能机器人商业化进展，期待行业标准与生态共建——机械设备行业周报 （20251208-20251214） ➢ 2.美国就业市场"紧平衡"脆弱性显现——海外观察：美国2025年11月非农数据 ➢ 1.欧央行维持基准利率不变 ➢ 2.美国11月未季调CPI同比升2.7%低于预期 ➢ 3.央行时隔近三个月重启14天期逆回购操作 | 1.1. 关注具身智能机器人商业化进展，期待行业标准与生态共建——机械设备行 | | | --- | --- | | 业周报（20251208-20251214） | 3 | | 1.2. 美国 ...

[证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月18日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251218 重点推荐 财经要闻 ➢ 1.财政部公布1-11月财政收支情况 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.关注具身智能机器人商业化进展，期待行业标准与生态共建——机械设备行业周报 （20251208-20251214） ➢ 2.美国就业市场"紧平衡"脆弱性显现——海外观察：美国2025年11月非农数据 | 1.1. 关注具身智能机器人商业化进展，期待行业标准与生态共建——机械设备行 | | | --- | --- | | 业周报（20251208-20251214） | 3 | | 1.2. 美国就业市场"紧平衡"脆弱性显现——海外观察：美国 2025 年 11 月非农 | | | 数据 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the commercialization progress of embodied intelligent robots and the expectation for the standardization system to further improve, promoting the development of the robotics industry [3][4]. - Key developments include the launch of a humanoid robot "App Store" by Yushu Technology, which facilitates model sharing and training, and the signing of a sales contract by UBTECH for humanoid robots worth over 50 million yuan [4][9]. - The establishment of the "Humanoid Robot Intelligence Grading Standard" aims to classify humanoid robots into five levels, providing a framework for technology development and product selection [12][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Robotics Industry Dynamics - Yushu Technology launched a humanoid robot "App Store" to enhance model sharing and ecosystem development [4][9]. - UBTECH signed a contract for the sale of humanoid robots with a total value exceeding 50 million yuan, focusing on the Walker S2 model [4][9]. - ZhiYuan Robotics achieved the mass production of its 5000th general-purpose humanoid robot, indicating a significant scale-up in production capabilities [4][10]. - The report highlights the need for industry standards to address issues like product homogeneity and data sharing challenges [11]. - The establishment of a public service platform for embodied intelligence aims to support technology development and resource sharing [13]. 2. Refrigeration Equipment Industry Tracking - Daikin's acquisition of Chilldyne marks a strategic move into the liquid cooling sector for data centers, enhancing its technological capabilities [14]. - Vertiv's acquisition of PurgeRite for approximately 1 billion USD reflects the industry's trend towards integrating product and service offerings in liquid cooling solutions [15]. - The demand for efficient refrigeration equipment is expected to rise due to the growth of data centers, with a projected 19% CAGR in global data center capacity from 2023 to 2030 [16][18]. 3. Market Review - The report notes that the mechanical equipment sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 1.38%, ranking 4th among 31 sectors [23].

Employment Data Summary - In November 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, surpassing the expected 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%, the highest level since October 2021[2] - The U6 unemployment rate jumped from 8.0% to 8.7%, marking the highest level since August 2021[2] Labor Market Dynamics - The total number of re-employed individuals surged by 293,000 over October and November, contributing 129% to the increase in unemployment[2] - Immigration labor supply turned positive, with a net increase of 132,000 over the two months, while domestic labor supply also rose by 118,000[3] - Despite the increase in labor supply, corporate hiring decreased, with a drop of 218,000 in October[3] Sector Performance - The production sector saw a positive employment change in November, adding 19,000 jobs, primarily driven by construction, which contributed 28,000 jobs[2] - The service sector added 50,000 jobs in November, down from 61,000 in October, largely due to a decline in transportation jobs[2] - Government employment remained stable in November after significant cuts in October due to a government shutdown[2] Wage Trends - Hourly wage growth slowed in November, with private sector wages increasing by only 0.1% month-over-month, down from 0.4% in October[2] - The construction sector maintained a steady wage growth rate of 0.2%, indicating a recovery trend[2] Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, U.S. stock markets opened lower but showed slight recovery, while bond yields and the dollar experienced minor declines[3] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in January 2026 rose to 25.5%, although the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current rates due to stable economic growth[3]

证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月17日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251217 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 [table_summary] ➢ 1.布局围绕AI基建相关设备领域成长机遇——机械设备2026年投资策略 ➢ 2.内需仍有压力，关注积极定调后增量政策的出台——国内观察：2025年11月经济数据 ➢ 3.企业短期贷款与债券融资较好，存款季节性回表——银行业"量价质"跟踪（二十一） ➢ 1.商务部：对原产于欧盟的进口相关猪肉及猪副产品征收反倾销税 ➢ 2.海南自贸港将于12月18日全岛封关运作 ➢ 3.美国11月季调后非农就业人口增6.4万人，预期增5万人 | 1.1. 布局围绕 | 基建相关设备领域成长机遇——机械设备 | 年投资策略 | AI | 2026 | ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - Domestic demand remains under pressure, with a focus on the introduction of proactive incremental policies following the November economic data release, which showed a year-on-year increase in retail sales of only 1.3% and a cumulative decline in fixed asset investment of 2.6% [5][6][9] - Industrial production in November was relatively stable, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44%, slightly above the five-year average of 0.38%, while the year-on-year growth rate for industrial value added was 4.8% [6][7] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand, aiming to stabilize investment and the real estate market while increasing residents' income and expanding quality consumption supply [6][9] Group 2: Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector showed good performance in short-term loans and bond financing, with social financing scale stock growing by 8.5% year-on-year, and RMB loans increasing by 6.3% [12][13] - Short-term loans for enterprises increased by 1,000 billion yuan, reflecting strong liquidity support for small and medium-sized enterprises, while long-term loans showed a decline due to weak investment demand [13][15] - The monetary policy is expected to remain stable, with potential for further easing if economic conditions do not improve, although short-term interest rate cuts are considered unlikely [15][16] Group 3: Electronics Industry Developments - The U.S. approved the sale of Nvidia's H200 chips to China, which may accelerate AI model training in China but could also pressure domestic AI chip manufacturers [17][18] - Broadcom reported a significant increase in AI semiconductor sales, with a 74% year-on-year growth, indicating strong demand in the electronics sector [20][21] - The electronics industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with price increases in storage chips and a focus on structural opportunities in AI computing and semiconductor equipment [22][21]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the growth rate of social financing has stabilized for the first time in the second half of the year, supported by short-term corporate financing [5]. - The report emphasizes that credit growth will focus on structural optimization, with policies aimed at supporting technology innovation and consumption infrastructure [4]. - The overall asset quality of the banking sector is expected to remain stable, with the retail asset risk turning point yet to be confirmed [5]. Summary by Sections Section: Investment Highlights - The People's Bank of China reported that the social financing scale increased by 8.5% year-on-year as of the end of November, with RMB loans growing by 6.3% [4]. - Corporate short-term loans and bond financing performed well, while household credit demand remained weak [4]. - The report notes that the issuance of corporate bonds improved significantly, with a monthly increase of 416.9 billion yuan, up 178.8 billion yuan year-on-year [4]. Section: Credit and Monetary Policy - The report indicates that the growth of M2 and M1 slowed down, with M2 growing by 8.0% and M1 by 4.9% year-on-year [4]. - It is expected that loan interest rates will remain stable, with pressure on interest margins easing [4]. - The report suggests that the focus of credit will shift towards supporting small and micro enterprises, technology innovation, and green sectors [4]. Section: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on large state-owned banks and leading small and medium-sized banks for medium to long-term investments [5]. - It is anticipated that the downward pressure on interest margins in 2025 will be significantly less than in 2024 [5]. - The banking sector has entered a correction phase, with increasing dividend advantages making it attractive for long-term capital allocation [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the electronic industry, indicating a cautious outlook amidst ongoing developments in AI and semiconductor sectors [4]. Core Insights - The approval of NVIDIA's H200 chip sales to China is expected to accelerate AI model training in the country, while also posing competitive pressure on domestic AI chip manufacturers [4][10]. - Broadcom's Q4 2025 results exceeded market expectations, with AI semiconductor sales surging 74% year-over-year, indicating strong demand in the AI sector [4][10]. - The electronic industry is witnessing a gradual recovery in demand, with significant price increases in storage chips and a strong push for domestic production capabilities [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry News - NVIDIA has received approval to export H200 chips to China, with a 25% revenue share going to the U.S. government, which may enhance competition in the AI chip market [4][10]. - Broadcom reported Q4 2025 revenue of $18.02 billion, a 28% increase year-over-year, driven by a 74% rise in AI chip sales [4][10]. - The global smart device manufacturing sector is facing cost pressures due to anticipated price hikes of 25% to 30% for storage products in Q1 2026 [11]. Market Performance - The electronic sector outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Electronics Index rising 2.63% while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.08% [5][18]. - Sub-sectors such as semiconductors and electronic components showed positive growth, with increases of 2.68% and 6.08% respectively [5][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from strong domestic and international demand in the AIOT sector, such as Lexin Technology and Huazhong Technology [5]. - It also highlights opportunities in AI-driven innovation sectors, including computing chips and optical devices, as well as storage companies like Jiangbolong and Demingli [5].