Investment Strategy and Key Stock Portfolio - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical phase for achieving socialist modernization, with an implied growth rate requirement of approximately 4.7% during this period. The focus is on high-quality development, emphasizing total factor productivity, resident consumption rates, and domestic demand [3][9] - The improvement in China-US relations is noted, with a meeting between the leaders on October 30 discussing economic cooperation and resulting in a consensus that includes the suspension of certain tariffs and export controls. This is expected to enhance risk appetite in the market [3][9] - There is a continued demand for stabilizing domestic demand in the fourth quarter, with a reported GDP growth rate of 5.2% in the first three quarters, making it feasible to meet the annual target of 5%. However, there are signs of slowing retail sales growth and negative fixed asset investment growth [10][11] - The Federal Reserve has continued its gradual interest rate cuts, with a clear end to quantitative tightening (QT) by December 1. This is seen as a move to maintain the Fed's independence and data-driven decision-making [10][11] Key Stock Recommendations - The report includes a selection of stocks across various industries, highlighting their potential based on current market conditions and company fundamentals. The recommended stocks include: - Hengli Petrochemical (600346.SH) in the petrochemical sector, with a focus on its resilience and dividend policy [12][13] - Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) in basic chemicals, benefiting from its integrated supply chain and expected recovery in market demand [12][13] - Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical (002317.SZ) in the pharmaceutical sector, with a strong pipeline and expected revenue growth [12][13] - Kaili Medical (300633.SZ) in the medical sector, focusing on high-end product launches and market expansion [12][13] - Lihua Co., Ltd. (300761.SZ) in agriculture, benefiting from stable growth in poultry production [12][13] - Top Group (601689.SH) in the automotive sector, expected to benefit from its position as a key supplier to Tesla [12][13] - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986.SH) in electronics, with strong demand for semiconductor products [12][13] - Northern Huachuang (002371.SZ) in electronics, benefiting from the acceleration of domestic semiconductor production [12][13] - Anhui Heli (600761.SH) in machinery, focusing on global expansion and smart logistics [12][13] - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) in machinery, benefiting from the recovery in the excavator industry [12][13] ETF Recommendations - The report also recommends several ETFs, including: - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (588000.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 47.13% [15] - E Fund CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme ETF (159819.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 69.58% [15] - Chemical ETF (159870.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 25.97% [15] - GF CSI Infrastructure Engineering ETF (516970.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 9.09% [15] - Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF (512400.OF) with a year-to-date growth rate of 85.37% [15]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年10月31日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：10月31日，国家统计局公布10月官方PMI数据。10月，制造业PMI为49.0%，前值 49.8%；非制造业PMI为50.1，前值50.0%。 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [制造业受短期贸易摩擦扰动，建筑业预 Table_NewTitle] 期指数明显走高 ——国内观察：2025年10月PMI ➢ 核心观点：10月制造业PMI受贸易摩擦升级的影响较为明显，供需指数均明显回落，与 今年4月的表现类似。但本轮摩擦从升级到缓和的节奏较快，中美吉隆坡磋商的成果积 极，预计11月供需指数将迎来明显的反弹，且斜率要高于今年5月。10月，准财政工具投 放的速度较快，5000亿元已落实到具体项目， ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年10月31日 公 司 简 评 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 ——公司简评报告 投资要点 ➢ 事件：公司公布2025年三季度报告。前三季度，公司实现营业收入549.76亿元（+8.32%， YoY），归属于母公司普通股股东净利润224.45亿元（+8.39%，YoY）。9月末，公司总资 产为3.58万亿元（+16.65%，YoY），不良贷款率为0.76%（持平，QoQ），不良贷款拨备 覆盖率为375.92%（+1.76PCT，QoQ）。Q2单季净息差为1.76%（-5.32BPs，YoY）。 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn | [数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2025/10/30 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 27.72 | | 总股本(万股) | 660,359 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 659,989/0 | | 资产负债率(%) | 92.90% | | 市净率(倍) | 0.72 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 10 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年10月31日 公 司 简 评 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [桐昆股份（ Table_NewTitle] 601233）：长丝行业暂承压， PTA反内卷有望受益 ——公司简评报告 [Table_QuotePic] -25% -15% -6% 4% 14% 23% 33% 43% 24-10 25-01 25-04 25-07 桐昆股份 沪深300 [相关研究 Table_Report] 《桐昆股份（601233）：H1产销放量、 业绩符合预期，长丝供需有望改善— —公司简评报告》 2025.08.29 《桐昆股份（601233）：盈利同比改 善明显，继续稳固龙头优势——公司 简评报告》 2025.05.08 《桐昆股份（601233）：盈利维稳， 长丝景气度有望修复——公司简评 报告》 2024.08.30 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_main] 投资要点 [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 202 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年10月31日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 陈芯楠 S0630525090001 cxn@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251031 重点推荐 财经要闻 [table_summary] ➢ 1.兆易创新（603986）:存储供需错配短期或难缓解，公司利基DRAM量价齐升——公司 简评报告 ➢ 2.美联储如期降息，鹰派发言主导市场——海外观察：2025年10月美国FOMC会议 ➢ 1.国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普在釜山举行会晤 ➢ 2.中美吉隆坡磋商成果公布 ➢ 3.财政部等五部门联合印发通知，完善免税店政策支持提振消费 ➢ 4.欧洲央行维持基准利率不变 ➢ 5.日本央行维持基准利率在0.5% ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年10月31日 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [丽珠集团 Table_NewTitle]（000513）：业绩平稳增长，研 发快速推进 ——公司简评报告 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 风险提示：研发进展不及预期风险；新产品销售不及预期风险；市场需求波动风险。 [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） 12,630 | | 12,430 | 11,812 | 12,223 | 13,132 | 14,303 | | 增长率（%） | 4.69% | -1.58% | -4.97% | 3.48% | 7.43% | 8.92% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,909 | 1,954 | 2,061 | 2,382 | 2,659 | 2,941 | | 增长率（%） | 7.53% | 2.3 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年10月30日 [table_main] [美联储如期降息，鹰派发言主导市场 Table_NewTitle] ——海外观察：2025年10月美国FOMC会议 投资要点 宏 观 简 评 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] ➢ 事件：当地时间10月30日，美联储召开10月FOMC会议，如期继续降息25bp，基准利率下 降至3.75%-4.00%区间。 ➢ 核心观点：10月FOMC如期下调基准利率25bp，符合市场的预期。声明中对经济，就业以 及通胀的观点描述变化并不大，但提及将于12月1日停止量化紧缩。对市场影响较大的是 本次鲍威尔在记者会上的鹰派发言，他直截了当地指出"12月再次降息并未成定论，差得 远（A further reduction in the policy rate at the Dece ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 2.681 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 31.40% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 19.64%. The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 508 million yuan, up 61.13% year-over-year and 48.97% quarter-over-quarter [7] - The global supply-demand gap for storage products is expected to remain challenging in the short term, benefiting the company as storage chip prices have significantly increased, leading to a rise in both volume and price [7] - The company aims to capture one-third of the domestic niche DRAM market over the next few years, positioning itself as a market leader [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue reached 6.832 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 20.92%, with a net profit of 1.083 billion yuan, up 30.18% year-over-year [7] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 40.72%, showing a slight decrease of 1.05 percentage points year-over-year but an increase of 3.71 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [7] Market Dynamics - The DRAM supply situation has improved, leading to a favorable "price and volume increase" scenario. The demand from various sectors such as consumer electronics, industrial applications, and automotive has been growing, which aligns well with the company's diverse product offerings [7] - The price of DRAM in the spot market has nearly doubled compared to the same period last year, driven by supply constraints from major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix [7] Future Outlook - The company is confident in achieving over 50% year-over-year revenue growth in its DRAM product line, supported by the successful introduction and promotion of new products [7] - The company is actively collaborating with logic chip customers to expand its customized storage solutions across various applications, with a focus on AI-related technologies [7] Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.606 billion yuan, 2.046 billion yuan, and 2.594 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 100.18, 78.63, and 62.03 [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.934 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.94%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.88% to 1.121 billion yuan. The net cash flow from operating activities increased significantly by 106.23% to 963 million yuan, mainly due to increased cash received from sales [7] - The company has maintained stable expense ratios while increasing R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 1.003 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.20%. This investment is focused on emerging fields such as green technology and smart logistics, which are expected to become new growth engines [7] - Forklift sales have shown double-digit growth, with the company's sales growth outpacing the industry. In the first nine months of 2025, the company sold 204,200 forklifts, a year-on-year increase of 17.23%, compared to the industry growth of 14% [7] - The company is advancing in the smart logistics sector, developing various logistics management systems and collaborating with major tech companies to enhance its capabilities in intelligent logistics solutions [7] - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of approximately 18 billion yuan for 2025, supported by its focus on electric products and global expansion [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to reach 17.325 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 0.99%, and is expected to grow to 21.899 billion yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 8.12% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.320 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.791 billion yuan by 2027, with a growth rate of 12.08% [6] - The diluted EPS is expected to rise from 1.48 yuan in 2024 to 2.01 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [6]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Management - The central bank is gradually implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with macro-prudential management continuously improving, as evidenced by the recent financial forum where the central bank governor emphasized the importance of debt market operations [6][8] - The central bank's net purchase of 700 billion yuan in government bonds from October to December 2024 is aimed at alleviating supply-side pressures, indicating a mature timing for the resumption of bond trading [6][7] - The construction of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system is being accelerated to prevent and resolve financial risks, enhancing the ability to manage banking asset quality concerns [8] Group 2: Capital Market Reforms - The capital market is focusing on deepening investment and financing reforms while enhancing protections for small and medium investors, as highlighted in a recent speech by the chairman of the securities regulatory commission [11][12] - The multi-tiered capital market system is being reinforced, with specific reforms aimed at the growth board and the North Exchange to better serve emerging industries and technologies [13][14] - The introduction of a refinancing framework is expected to streamline the process for quality companies, allowing them to issue securities in a more flexible manner [15] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Huayang Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of 3.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, driven by strong performance in automotive electronics and precision die-casting [19][20] - Hengli Hydraulic achieved a revenue of 7.79 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 12.31% year-on-year growth, with a notable recovery in the excavator industry [23][24] - Hengli Petrochemical's Q3 net profit increased by 81.47% year-on-year, despite a revenue decline, due to effective cost management and improved gross margins [27][28] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations for Huayang Group suggest a clear growth path driven by automotive electronics and precision die-casting, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [22] - Hengli Hydraulic is positioned as a leader in the hydraulic components market, with expected net profits of 2.796 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a strong recovery in the excavator sector [25] - Hengli Petrochemical is expected to benefit from a new cycle in the refining industry, with a maintained "buy" rating based on its robust dividend policy and market position [29]