[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月15日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250515 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 ➢ 1.三点原因解析美国4月通胀为何低于预期——海外观察：美国2025年4月CPI数据 ➢ 2.益丰药房（603939）：精细化管理成效显著，业绩增长稳健——公司简评报告 ➢ 3.至纯科技（603690）：国产供应链有序切换，高阶设备与电子材料业务增长可期——公 司简评报告 ➢ 1.央行发布2025年4月金融统计数据报告 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月15日 标配 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -23% -14% -4% 5% 14% 24% 33% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:银行(0748) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.工商银行（601398）：息差和中间 业务收入压力或趋于平缓——公司 简评报告 2.资金端降息效应强于投资端—— 银行业"量价质"跟踪（十三） 3.工商银行（601398）：息差压力缓 解，资产质量整体稳定——公司简评 报告 4.宁波银行（002142）：息差、投资 及资产质量彰显专业经营优势—— 公司简评报告 [Table_NewTitle 政府融资驱动社融较快增长，贷款边际 ] 放缓 ——银行业"量价质"跟踪（十四） [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates robust performance growth, showcasing its refined management capabilities. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.062 billion yuan (up 6.53% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.529 billion yuan (up 8.26% year-on-year) [2] - The company has seen steady growth in its retail and franchise distribution businesses, with the online O2O business growing rapidly. In 2024, retail revenue reached 21.188 billion yuan (up 4.97% year-on-year), and the O2O segment contributed 1.721 billion yuan, growing 23.02% year-on-year [5] - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement while maintaining a steady expansion pace. As of the end of 2024, the total number of stores reached 14,684, with a net increase of 1,434 stores year-on-year [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.009 billion yuan (up 0.64% year-on-year) and a net profit of 449 million yuan (up 10.51% year-on-year) [2] - The gross margin for 2024 was 40.12%, and for Q1 2025, it was 39.64%, indicating a slight increase year-on-year [5] Business Segments - The company’s franchise and distribution business achieved a revenue of 2.107 billion yuan in 2024 (up 11.34% year-on-year) [5] - The company has strengthened its prescription drug services and expanded its product offerings, including functional and non-functional food and daily necessities [5] Future Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.755 billion yuan, 1.992 billion yuan, and 2.245 billion yuan, respectively [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are expected to be 1.45 yuan, 1.64 yuan, and 1.85 yuan [7]

Group 1: Tire Industry - Raw material cost pressure has eased, with a focus on changes in domestic and foreign demand. Prices for natural rubber, synthetic rubber, carbon black, and additives have decreased, benefiting tire companies' profit recovery. However, international trade friction poses challenges for tire exports, and companies face ongoing shipment pressures. Long-term, companies with global layouts close to major consumer markets are expected to compete effectively, with recommendations to focus on leading companies like Sailun, General Tire, and Linglong Tire [6][5]. Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.76% increase last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index. Sub-sectors like health products and baked goods performed well, with respective increases of 5.09% and 4.25%. Notable stock performances included Jia Jia Food and Qinghai Spring, with increases of 21.49% and 20.65% [8][9]. - In the liquor segment, companies are focusing on product and channel optimization. For instance, Wuliangye has maintained stable sales of its main products, while Jiannanchun has seen significant growth in the 100-300 RMB price range. The white liquor sector is expected to recover as policies support demand [9][11][13]. Group 3: Banking Sector - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 212.77 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.22% year-on-year, with a net profit of 84.16 billion RMB, down 3.99% year-on-year. The bank's total assets reached 51.55 trillion RMB, up 8.29% year-on-year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33% [15][16]. - The bank's net interest margin was 1.33%, down 15 basis points year-on-year. The decline in interest margin is attributed to the repricing of loans and the impact of government bond issuance [18][20]. - The bank's fee and commission income showed a narrowing decline, indicating potential recovery in wealth management and capital market activities [19][20]. Group 4: Petrochemical Industry - The report highlights the potential for recovery in oil demand due to trade negotiations between China and the U.S. The expected stabilization of oil prices in Q2 is anticipated to benefit companies with upstream resources, such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [22][25]. - The petrochemical sector is expected to maintain a cost advantage due to improvements in the domestic supply chain, despite short-term bearish sentiment from trade tensions [23][24]. Group 5: Refrigerant Industry - Prices for refrigerants have been on an upward trend, with demand continuing to rise. As of April 30, 2025, prices for R32, R125, and R134a were reported at 49,000 RMB/ton, 45,000 RMB/ton, and 47,500 RMB/ton, respectively [26][27]. - The production of household air conditioners is expected to maintain year-on-year growth, supporting refrigerant demand. The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant sector, such as Juhua and Sanmei [28]. Group 6: Pharmaceutical Industry - Lingrui Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 3.501 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.72%, with a net profit of 723 million RMB, up 27.19%. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.021 billion RMB, a 12.29% increase year-on-year [29][30]. - The company is expanding its product line and market reach, with significant growth in its patch and tablet segments. The acquisition of Yingu Pharmaceutical is expected to enhance its product matrix and market penetration [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the dairy sector driven by favorable policies related to fertility, which are expected to boost demand. The supply-demand balance for raw milk is anticipated to improve, leading to stabilization in milk prices [4]. - In the liquor segment, the focus is on high-end products and regional leaders, with specific recommendations for companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye. The report notes that the white liquor sector is currently experiencing a bottoming out in valuations, with expectations for demand recovery supported by policy measures [4]. - The snack food sector continues to show high growth potential, with recommendations for companies such as Yanjinpuzi and Ganyuan Food. The report also emphasizes the resilience of the restaurant supply chain, suggesting investments in companies like Anjifood and Qianwei Yangchun [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector rose by 1.76% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors [5][10]. - The best-performing sub-sectors included health products and baked goods, which increased by 5.09% and 4.25%, respectively [10]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - The report provides detailed pricing data for key liquor products, noting that the price of the 2024 Moutai original bottle is 2,190 yuan, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [20]. - In the beer sector, production for March 2025 reached 312.8 million hectoliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [25]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 2% year-on-year decline in liquor prices as of April, with overall food and beverage prices showing a slight increase [55]. 4. Core Company Updates - Qingdao Beer plans to acquire 100% equity of Jimo Huangjiu from Xinhua Jin Group and Lujin Group for 666 million yuan [56]. - Baba Foods announced a cash dividend of 0.80 yuan per share, totaling 192 million yuan [56].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1][56]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.76% increase last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 first-level sectors [5][10]. - The report highlights strong performance in the snack and baking sub-sectors, with increases of 5.09% and 4.25% respectively [5][10]. - Key companies to watch include high-end liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as leading snack companies like Salted Fish and Gan Yuan Foods [4][5]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance is detailed, with the top five gainers being Jia Jia Foods (21.49%), Qinghai Spring (20.65%), Jiao Da Ang Li (15.18%), Lanzhou Yellow River (14.05%), and West Wheat Foods (12.83%) [10][15]. - Conversely, the top five decliners included Miao Ke Lan Duo (-1.92%), Hao Xiang Ni (-1.95%), Shanghai Mei Lin (-3.21%), Gan Yuan Foods (-5.31%), and An Ji Foods (-15.99%) [10][15]. Sub-sector Analysis - The liquor segment is focusing on product and channel optimization, with companies like Wuliangye and Jinshiyuan showing stable sales and market strategies [5][10]. - The beer sector is expected to see marginal improvements in sales as temperatures rise, with a reported production of 854.1 million liters in the first quarter of 2025, down 2.2% year-on-year [25][28]. - The snack sector remains robust, with Salted Fish and Jin Zai Foods leading in growth, supported by new channels and strong product categories [4][5]. Price Trends - As of May 10, 2025, the price for 2024's original and scattered Flying Moutai is reported at 2,190 RMB and 2,120 RMB respectively, with slight fluctuations noted [20][21]. - Dairy product prices show a downward trend, with fresh milk priced at 12.17 RMB per liter, down 0.90% year-on-year [27][39]. Company Dynamics - Recent developments include Qingdao Beer acquiring 100% equity of Jimo Yellow Wine for 665 million RMB, and Baba Foods announcing a cash dividend of 0.80 RMB per share [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 212.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.22% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84.16 billion yuan, down 3.99% year-on-year [2] - Total assets at the end of Q1 stood at 51.55 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.29% year-on-year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net interest margin for Q1 was 1.33%, a decline of 15 basis points year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue decreased by 3.22% year-on-year to 2127.74 billion yuan, with net profit down 3.99% to 841.56 billion yuan [2] - Total assets increased by 8.29% year-on-year to 51.55 trillion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33% [2] Loan and Deposit Growth - Government financing has driven growth in investment assets, while loan growth has slightly slowed due to demand factors [6] - Deposit growth has shown a slight recovery, influenced by macroeconomic policies [6] Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin for Q1 was 1.33%, reflecting a decline due to repricing effects [6] - Fee and commission income has seen a narrowing decline, with potential for recovery in the upcoming quarters [6] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33% at the end of 2024 [7] - Individual loan risks are expected to be manageable, supported by a solid customer base and prudent risk management [7] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to maintain stable operations despite rising pressures, with projected revenues of 817.5 billion yuan, 833 billion yuan, and 880.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating based on the company's strong customer base, diversified business, and stable dividend policy [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the refrigerant industry, suggesting a high level of market activity and profitability for related companies [6][59]. Core Insights - The prices of third-generation refrigerants have been on an upward trend, with R32, R125, and R134a priced at 49,000 CNY/ton, 45,000 CNY/ton, and 47,500 CNY/ton respectively as of April 30, 2025, reflecting increases of 4.26%, 0%, and 2.15% compared to the end of March [6][14]. - The production quotas for second-generation refrigerants are set to decrease in 2025, while the total production quota for third-generation refrigerants will remain at baseline levels, indicating a tightening supply-demand relationship [6][59]. - The domestic production of household air conditioners is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth trend, with production volumes of 23.3 million units, 20.98 million units, and 18.42 million units projected for May to July 2025, showing growth rates of 9.94%, 14.10%, and 14.30% respectively [6][36]. Refrigerant Tracking - As of April 2025, the production volumes for R32, R134a, and R125 were 25,759 tons, 15,029 tons, and 10,316 tons, with year-on-year changes of 23.72%, 17.87%, and -19.41% respectively [6][15]. - The total inventory of R32, R134a, and R125 as of April 25, 2025, was 4,033 tons, 3,488 tons, and 2,643 tons, showing a month-on-month change of -2.58%, 0.72%, and 0.84% respectively [6][18]. Fluoropolymer Insights - The prices of fluoropolymers have started to rebound in 2025, with PTFE, PVDF, and HFP priced at 42,000 CNY/ton, 62,000 CNY/ton, and 39,700 CNY/ton respectively as of April 30, 2025 [6][47]. - The production of PTFE, PVDF, and HFP in April 2025 was 12,746 tons, 10,399 tons, and 6,080 tons, reflecting year-on-year increases of 24.51%, 26.12%, and 7.31% respectively [6][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with well-established supply chains in the fluorochemical sector, such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Jinshi Resources [6][59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the refrigerant industry, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for profitability [6][59]. Core Insights - Refrigerant prices are on an upward trend, with demand continuing to rise. As of April 30, 2025, the prices for R32, R125, and R134a were 49,000 CNY/ton, 45,000 CNY/ton, and 47,500 CNY/ton, reflecting increases of 4.26%, 0%, and 2.15% respectively compared to the end of March [6][14]. - The production of household air conditioners is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth trend, with production volumes for May, June, and July 2025 projected at 23.3 million units, 20.98 million units, and 18.42 million units, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.94%, 14.10%, and 14.30% respectively [6][36]. - The report suggests that the refrigerant industry is likely to maintain a high level of prosperity, with significant profit potential for leading companies in the sector, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. and Sanmei Co., Ltd. [6][59]. Refrigerant Tracking - As of April 2025, the production volumes for R32, R134a, and R125 were 25,759 tons, 15,029 tons, and 10,316 tons, showing year-on-year increases of 23.72%, 17.87%, and a decrease of 19.41% respectively [6][15]. - The total inventory of R32, R134a, and R125 as of April 25, 2025, was 4,033 tons, 3,488 tons, and 2,643 tons, with changes of -2.58%, 0.72%, and 0.84% respectively compared to the previous month [6][18]. Fluoropolymer Insights - The prices of fluoropolymers have started to rebound in 2025, with PTFE, PVDF, and HFP prices recorded at 42,000 CNY/ton, 62,000 CNY/ton, and 39,700 CNY/ton respectively as of April 30, 2025 [6][47]. - The production of PTFE, PVDF, and HFP in April 2025 was 12,746 tons, 10,399 tons, and 6,080 tons, reflecting year-on-year increases of 24.51%, 26.12%, and 7.31% respectively [6][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a well-established supply chain in fluorochemical production, such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Jinshi Resources [6][59].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in terms of profit is outstanding, with a revenue of 3.501 billion yuan in 2024 (up 5.72% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 723 million yuan (up 27.19% year-on-year) [2] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.021 billion yuan (up 12.29% year-on-year, up 37.62% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 217 million yuan (up 13.89% year-on-year, up 45.83% quarter-on-quarter) [2] - The company is a leading player in the traditional Chinese medicine patch market, with a strong performance in core products and an expanding product pipeline due to acquisitions [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 75.82% and a net margin of 20.64%, with improvements in gross margins across various product lines [6] - The company has seen steady growth in its patch products, with revenue of 2.115 billion yuan (up 3.35% year-on-year) and capsule products at 755 million yuan (up 5.66% year-on-year) [6] - The company has made significant investments in marketing and R&D, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios of 45.62%, 4.76%, and 3.76% respectively in 2024 [6] Acquisition and Market Expansion - The company announced the acquisition of 90% of Yingu Pharmaceutical for 704 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its product matrix and market penetration [6] - The acquisition includes innovative products such as nasal spray medications, which are anticipated to have a broad market potential [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 826 million yuan, 951 million yuan, and 1.080 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.46 yuan, 1.68 yuan, and 1.90 yuan [7] - The revenue growth rates are projected at 16.36% for 2025, 14.06% for 2026, and 11.56% for 2027 [7]