[Table_Reportdate] 2025年09月11日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle]20250911 [table_summary] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 ➢ 1.翘尾因素对CPI及PPI的影响不一——国内观察：2025年8月通胀数据 ➢ 2.2025H1农药行业持续去库，行业景气有望修复——基础化工行业周报（2025/9/1- 2025/9/7） [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 吴康辉 S0630525060001 wkh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： ➢ 1.美国8月PPI低于预期 ➢ 2.美国法官暂时阻止特朗普罢免美联储理事库克 | 1. 重点推荐 | | 3 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年09月10日 [table_invest] 超配 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn [Table_NewTitle] 2025H1农药行业持续去库，行业景气有 望修复 ——基础化工行业周报（2025/9/1-2025/9/7） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 投资建议： 基 础 [table_stockTrend] -15% -2% 12% 25% 38% 51% 64% 24-09 24-12 25-03 25-06 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.2025H1化工整体业绩同比修复， 关注"反内卷"带来的供给弹性及科 技新趋势下的国产化需求——基础 化 工 行 业 周 报 （ 2025/8/25- 2025/8/31） 2.广信股份（603599）：半年报业绩 短期承压，农药行业景气有望改善— —公 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年09月10日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 吴康辉 S0630525060001 wkh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle]20250910 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.原油供需宽松显现，石化产业期待"金九银十"——原油及聚酯产业链月报（2025年8 月） ➢ 2.8月挖掘机内外销齐增长，半年报龙头盈利能力提升——机械设备行业简评 ➢ 1.美国就业数据大幅下修，截至3月少增91.1万个岗位 ➢ 2.工信部：将研究出台"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施方案 | 1. 重点推荐 | | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1.1. 原油供需 ...

原油供需宽松显现,石化产业期待"金九银十" 原油及聚酯产业链月报 (2025年8月) 证券分析师：吴骏燕 执业证书编号：S0630517120001 证券分析师：张季恺 执业证书编号：S0630521110001 证券分析师：谢建斌 执业证书编号： S0630522020001 邮箱: wjyan@longone.com.cn 2025年9月9日 资料来源：Wind，EIA，IEA，OPEC， 东海证券研究所 CONTENTS 五、风险提示 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 一、油价回顾与展望 二、商品、利率及汇率 三、聚酯产业链 四、结论与投资建议 | 指标 | 展望 | 油价影响 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年8月布伦特原油维持宽幅震荡，月底收于68.12美元/桶左右。OPEC+此前实施自愿减产的八国同意9月增产54.7万桶/日（第五次加 | | | 油价判断 | 速增产），在10月前完成近250万桶/日配额提升。非农数据大幅低于预期，市场押注美联储2025年9月或将降息至少50个基点。综合来看， | | ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年09月09日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle]20250909 [table_summary] 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 ➢ 1.出口的支撑与拖累来自哪里——国内观察：2025年8月进出口数据 ➢ 2.公募销售费用改革启动，险企资本保证金管理迎修订——非银金融行业周报（20250901- 20250907） ➢ 3.华为领跑折叠手机市场，存储需求推动闪迪NAND闪存涨价超10%——电子行业周报 2025/9/1-2025/9/7 ➢ 1.中国人民银行与欧央行、瑞士央行、匈牙利央行续签双边本币互换协议 ➢ 2.两部门发布《关于推进"人工智能+"能源高质量发展的实施意见》 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 吴康辉 S0630525060001 wkh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年09月09日 [table_invest] 超配 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 商俭 S0630525060002 shangjian@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -22% -3% 16% 35% 53% 72% 91% 24-09 24-12 25-03 25-06 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [Table_NewTitle] 8月挖掘机内外销齐增长，半年报龙头盈 利能力提升 ——机械设备行业简评 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 究 机 械 设 备 [table_product] ➢ 事件：中国工程机械工业协会发布2025年8月主要企业挖掘机销量统计。 ➢ 挖掘机：2025年8月销售各类挖掘机16523台，同比增长12.8%，其中国内7685台，同比 增长14.8%；出口8838台，同比增长11.1%。2025年8月销售电动挖掘机31台。2025年1- 8月共销售挖掘机154181台，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [33]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector index fell by 5% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.2 percentage points, with both brokerage and insurance indices showing a synchronized decline of 5.3% and 4% respectively [4][8]. - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 30,833 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.7% week-on-week, while the margin trading balance increased by 1.1% to 2.29 trillion yuan [4][16]. - The recent reforms in public fund sales fees are expected to lower investor costs and promote a long-term investment mindset, with new A-share accounts increasing by 165% year-on-year in August [4][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.2%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.8%. The non-bank financial index dropped by 5%, with the brokerage index down by 5.3% and the insurance index down by 4% [8][9]. Market Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 30,833 billion yuan, down 11.7% from the previous week. The margin trading balance reached 2.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.1% increase [16][4]. Industry News - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission revised the "Insurance Company Capital Guarantee Management Measures," which includes removing restrictions on the types of banks that can hold capital guarantees and optimizing the conditions for deposit banks [31]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released a draft for public comment on the "Publicly Raised Securities Investment Fund Sales Fee Management Regulations," aimed at reducing costs for investors and encouraging long-term holding of funds [31]. Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, the report suggests focusing on opportunities in mergers and acquisitions, wealth management transformation, and innovative licensing, particularly for large brokerages with strong capital [4]. - For insurance companies, the report recommends paying attention to large comprehensive insurers with competitive advantages, especially in the context of high-quality development supported by regulatory policies [4].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious investment approach in the electronics sector, indicating a moderate recovery in demand and price stabilization, with a recommendation to gradually accumulate positions [4][5]. Core Insights - Huawei's new MateXTs foldable phone achieved a shipment of 3.74 million units in the first half of 2025, capturing 75% of the market share, showcasing significant performance improvements [4][10]. - The NAND flash memory market is experiencing a price increase of over 10% due to strong demand driven by AI applications and data centers, with expectations for prices to remain high [4][10]. - The overall electronics industry is in a phase of moderate recovery, with a focus on sectors such as AI server supply chains, AIOT, equipment materials, and automotive electronics [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, Huawei's foldable phone shipments reached 3.74 million units, representing a 12.6% year-on-year growth in the Chinese foldable phone market [4][11]. - The global foldable phone market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.8% from 2025 to 2029, with an expected shipment of approximately 19.83 million units in 2025 [4]. Market Trends - NAND flash memory prices are set to increase by over 10% due to strong demand from AI applications and data centers, with ongoing price evaluations expected in the coming quarters [4][10]. - The electronics sector has shown a decline, with the Shenwan Electronics Index dropping 4.57% recently, underperforming the broader market [4][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from strong domestic and international demand in the AIOT sector, such as Lexin Technology and Huazhong Technology [5]. - It also highlights opportunities in AI-driven sectors, including computing chips and optical devices, suggesting companies like Cambricon and Source Photonics [5]. Performance Metrics - As of September 5, 2025, the Shenwan Electronics Index had a PE ratio of 64.23, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical averages [21]. - The semiconductor sub-sector has seen significant declines, with the semiconductor design segment dropping by 9.13% recently [23].

Group 1: Key Recommendations - Gold prices have reached new highs, and with the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it is recommended to allocate assets towards technology, consumer, and non-ferrous sectors [6][8] - The non-farm payroll data for August 2025 was below expectations, indicating a potential shift towards recession trading in the market [11][12] - Jinchuang Group (603680) is highlighted for its strong profit growth and ability to seize industry opportunities [19][20] - The domestic chip replacement is accelerating, and investments in AI computing power by domestic cloud vendors continue to grow [23][24] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's GDP for Q2 was revised to a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, slightly above the expected 1.4% [31] - The U.S. President has exempted several key commodity tariffs, which may impact various sectors [32] - Shenzhen has further optimized its real estate policy measures to stimulate the market [33] - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3,322.2 billion by the end of August, reflecting a rise of $29.9 billion [34] Group 3: Company Analysis - Jinchuang Group - In H1 2025, Jinchuang Group achieved revenue of 2.512 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.04%, with net profit rising by 149.29% [20][21] - The company has a diversified product range for rail transit vehicles, covering various safety and operational systems [20] - The rail transit industry is experiencing an overall increase in demand, with significant investments in fixed assets and passenger traffic growth [21][22] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry showed signs of recovery in August, with expanding price increases and structural opportunities in AI computing and semiconductor equipment [24][26] - Demand for semiconductors is improving, particularly in AI servers and new energy vehicles, with expectations for continued recovery in September [26][27] - Domestic cloud vendors are seeing significant contributions from cloud business, with capital expenditures on the rise to support AI infrastructure [29][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is currently experiencing a transitional phase in its product offerings, with a focus on expanding new retail channels. The report anticipates improvements in market demand [4][6] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 886 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 36 million yuan, down 39.67% [7] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 415 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.12%, while net profit was 14 million yuan, down 42.05% [7] Product Performance - Traditional products are undergoing a painful iteration period, while baked goods and dish categories are performing well. Revenue from staple foods decreased by 9.10% to 413 million yuan, and snacks fell by 6.57% to 197 million yuan due to intensified market competition [7] - The baking category saw revenue growth of 11.02% to 205 million yuan, attributed to product structure adjustments and new offerings for key clients. The dish category and others experienced a significant increase of 67.31% to 65 million yuan, driven by rising demand for prepared dishes [7] Channel Performance - New retail channels are showing rapid revenue growth, while the small B channel is under short-term pressure. Direct sales revenue for H1 2025 was 434 million yuan, up 5.31%, with the largest client contributing 189 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.28% [7] - The company has secured national procurement contracts with major retail chains like Hema and Walmart, leading to a 349.66% year-on-year increase in revenue from the fourth-largest client [7] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 23.59%, down 1.62 percentage points, with Q2 gross margin at 22.66%, down 2.29 percentage points. This decline is due to a lower proportion of high-margin staple food revenue and increased competition [7] - Selling expenses for H1 2025 were 6.87% of revenue, up 1.35 percentage points, primarily due to rising employee compensation and e-commerce promotion costs [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts profit forecasts, projecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 88 million yuan, 100 million yuan, and 113 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.90, 1.03, and 1.16 yuan [7][8] - The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 36.16, 31.57, and 28.09 for the next three years [7]