Inflation Data Summary - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2%, down from 0.8% in the previous month, while the month-on-month change remained at 0.2%[2] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 1.4%, an improvement from the previous decline of 1.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - The decline in CPI year-on-year was influenced by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, with fresh vegetable prices contributing a 0.27 percentage point decrease to the CPI[2] - Excluding the Spring Festival effect, the CPI month-on-month growth of 0.2% was weaker than the average of 0.6% observed in years when the festival fell in mid to late February[2] - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant drop, with a month-on-month decrease of 4.8%, leading to a year-on-year decline of 0.7% in food prices[2] PPI Insights - The PPI has shown a continuous month-on-month increase for four consecutive months, with a potential for year-on-year growth by mid-year if the monthly changes remain stable[2] - Key drivers for PPI improvement include rising prices in non-ferrous metals and a positive demand outlook in certain industries, despite some drag from the oil sector[2] Core CPI and Consumer Trends - The core CPI, excluding energy, showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, indicating strong performance in non-energy consumer goods[2] - The average wholesale price of pork increased by 3.73% in January, marking the first monthly rise since July 2025, driven by a decrease in the breeding sow population[2] Risks and Future Outlook - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic policy implementation, a sharper decline in real estate investment, and unexpected inflation in the U.S.[3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the machinery equipment industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The machinery equipment sector is experiencing significant growth driven by increased demand for efficient cooling solutions in data centers and AI infrastructure [3][22] - Major companies like Trane Technologies and Johnson Controls are reporting strong order growth, indicating a robust market environment [9][15] - Google's substantial capital expenditure plans for 2026 highlight the increasing investment in AI and cloud infrastructure, which is expected to further boost demand for related equipment [21] Summary by Sections 1. Trane Technologies Financial Review - Trane Technologies reported Q4 2025 revenue of $5.1 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EPS of $2.86, up 10% [9] - The company saw a 24% increase in new orders, with a record backlog of $7.8 billion, indicating strong future revenue potential [10] - The commercial HVAC business is a key growth driver, with orders up over 35% in Q4 2025 [10] 2. Johnson Controls Performance - Johnson Controls achieved Q1 2026 revenue of $5.8 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year, with a 39% rise in self-owned business orders [15] - The company has raised its adjusted EPS guidance for FY 2026 to approximately $4.70, reflecting a 25% year-over-year growth [15] - The introduction of new products like the YORK YDAM chiller is aimed at enhancing data center cooling solutions [20] 3. Google's Cloud Business - Alphabet reported Q4 2025 revenue of $113.8 billion, an 18% increase, with cloud revenue growing 48% due to AI infrastructure demand [21] - The company plans to invest $175 to $185 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, nearly doubling its previous year's investment [21] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the growth in data centers will create opportunities for Chinese cooling equipment manufacturers, such as Ice Wheel Environment and Linde Co., to capitalize on the demand for cooling solutions [22] - Companies like Invek, which provide comprehensive liquid cooling solutions, are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of this trend [22] 5. Caterpillar Financial Review - Caterpillar reported 2025 revenue of $67.6 billion, a 4% increase, with Q4 revenue reaching a record $19.1 billion [28] - The power and energy segment saw a 23% increase in sales, driven by demand from data centers [29] - The construction machinery segment also grew, but profit margins were pressured by rising costs [29]

Key Insights - The report highlights significant capital expenditure increases among the four major CSP manufacturers, driven by demand that is pushing up power semiconductor prices, indicating a robust recovery in the electronic sector [6][7] - The semiconductor industry is expected to reach a historic high in sales in 2025, with a projected increase in demand for computing power due to AI infrastructure investments [8] - The excavator market saw a substantial increase in both domestic and export sales in January 2026, indicating strong demand recovery in the machinery sector [13][14] - The small nucleic acid sector is gaining traction, with notable collaborations and sales growth, reflecting the increasing value of this market segment in the pharmaceutical industry [18][19] Group 1: Electronic Industry - The electronic sector is experiencing a recovery, with AI infrastructure investments leading to a surge in capital expenditures among major CSPs, expected to reach $670 billion in 2026, a 60% increase year-on-year [7] - The global semiconductor sales reached $791.7 billion in 2025, with a projected increase to over $1 trillion in 2026, driven by demand from AI and IoT technologies [8] - The price increase trend in semiconductors is spreading from memory chips to power, analog, and MCU chips, indicating a comprehensive price cycle in the semiconductor industry [8] Group 2: Machinery Industry - In January 2026, excavator sales increased by 49.5% year-on-year, with domestic sales up 61.4% and exports up 40.5%, reflecting strong demand recovery [13][14] - The loader market also saw significant growth, with sales increasing by 48.5% year-on-year, driven by major domestic projects and a growing overseas market [15] - The overall machinery industry is expected to continue its recovery, supported by government policies and infrastructure projects [14][15] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry - The small nucleic acid sector is highlighted for its potential, with a recent collaboration between Saint Gene and Gene Tech valued at up to $1.7 billion, showcasing the sector's growth and international recognition [19][20] - The pharmaceutical sector overall saw a slight increase of 0.14% in the last week, with certain sub-sectors like traditional Chinese medicine and medical services performing particularly well [18] - Investment opportunities are identified in biotech firms with core delivery technologies and those focusing on chronic disease areas, indicating a shift towards more sustainable growth in the pharmaceutical market [20]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw an overall increase of 0.14% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.47 percentage points, with a current PE valuation of 29.43 times, which is at a historical mid-low level, representing a 120% premium over the CSI 300 [6][7] - Notable individual stock performances included Guangshengtang, which surged by 29.83%, followed by Haixiang Pharmaceutical at 18.64%, and Meidisi at 18.04% [6] - A significant collaboration was announced between Saint Gene and Gene Tech, involving a global R&D cooperation and licensing agreement for an RNAi therapy, with an upfront payment of $200 million and potential milestone payments totaling $1.5 billion [7][8] - The investment recommendation focuses on three main lines: biotech firms with core delivery technology and international collaboration potential, industry leaders in chronic disease areas with advanced pipelines, and key companies in the small nucleic acid supply chain benefiting from global commercialization [8] Group 2: Machinery and Equipment Industry - In January 2026, excavator sales reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales up 61.4% and exports up 40.5% [11][12] - Loader sales also saw significant growth, with a total of 11,759 units sold in January, reflecting a 48.5% increase year-on-year, driven by major domestic projects [13] - The demand for excavators is expected to continue recovering due to upcoming large-scale projects in various sectors, including mining and water conservancy [12][14] - Companies like LiuGong are projected to see steady profit growth, with a forecasted net profit of 1.526 to 1.659 billion yuan for 2025, marking a 15-25% increase year-on-year [13] Group 3: Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing a recovery, with significant capital expenditure increases from major CSP manufacturers, expected to reach $670 billion in 2026, a 60% year-on-year increase [16][17] - The global semiconductor industry is projected to achieve record sales of $791.7 billion in 2025, with a 25.6% year-on-year growth, driven by demand from AI and IoT technologies [18] - Price increases are spreading from memory chips to power, analog, and MCU chips, indicating a comprehensive price surge in the semiconductor market [18] - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies benefiting from strong domestic and international demand in the AIOT sector, as well as those involved in semiconductor equipment and materials [21]

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月09日 超配 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 商俭 S0630525060002 shangjian@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -24% -9% 5% 20% 34% 48% 63% 25-02 25-05 25-08 25-11 申万行业指数:机械设备(0764) 沪深300 [Table_NewTitle 挖掘机 ] 1月内外销大增，龙头公司业绩预 增 ——机械设备行业简评 [table_main] 投资要点： 行 机 械 设 备 [table_invest] [table_product] ➢ 事件：中国工程机械工业协会发布2026年1月主要企业挖掘机和装载机销量统计。 ➢ 挖掘机：2026年1月销售各类挖掘机18708台，同比增长49.5%，其中国内销量8723台， 同比增长61.4%；出口销量9985台，同比增长40.5%。2026年1月销售电动挖掘机35台。 ➢ 装载机：2026年1月销售各类装载机11759台，同比增长48.5%。其中国内销量5293台，同 比增长42.8%；出 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" investment rating for the electronic sector, indicating a cautious outlook amidst ongoing market fluctuations [4]. Core Insights - The AI infrastructure construction is still in a phase of large-scale investment, with the four major CSP companies expected to collectively reach capital expenditures of $670 billion in 2026, a 60% year-on-year increase [4][10]. - The global semiconductor industry is projected to achieve record sales of $1 trillion in 2026, driven by emerging technologies such as AI and IoT, with a price increase trend spreading from memory chips to power, analog, and MCU chips [4][12]. - The electronic sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with storage chip prices rising and domestic production efforts exceeding expectations [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The electronic sector is witnessing a significant increase in capital expenditures from major CSPs, with Google and Amazon both reporting substantial growth in their cloud and advertising businesses [4][10]. - The semiconductor industry is entering a comprehensive price increase cycle, with sales reaching $791.7 billion in 2025, a 25.6% increase year-on-year, and expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026 [4][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on structural opportunities in AI computing, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, key components, and storage price increases [4]. - Specific companies to watch include: - AIOT beneficiaries: Lexin Technology, Hengxuan Technology, and others [5]. - AI innovation-driven sectors: Cambrian, Moore Threads, and others [5]. - Semiconductor equipment and materials: North Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and others [5]. Market Performance - The electronic sector underperformed the market this week, with the Shenwan Electronic Index dropping 5.23%, while the overall market saw a decline of 1.33% [4][19]. - Sub-sectors such as semiconductors and electronic components experienced significant declines, with semiconductor stocks down 7.97% [21].

Group 1: Macro Background and Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is experiencing sustained improvement, with a focus on oil price variables. The IMF projects global economic growth of 3.3% and 3.2% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from previous forecasts [7][5] - The ACC's global chemical production index remained flat in December, with a slight increase of 0.3% in the Asia-Pacific region, while North America and Europe saw declines of 0.8% [7] - Since 2022, the number of chemical plant closures in Europe has surged sixfold, with a cumulative capacity loss of 37 million tons, representing about 9% of Europe's capacity. The petrochemical sector faces significant risks due to a lack of energy cost competitiveness [7][5] Group 2: Pre-prepared Food Industry - The National Health Commission released a draft national standard for pre-prepared food, defining its scope, shelf life, nutritional quality, packaging, and additive use, marking a significant milestone for industry standardization [10][11] - The standard prohibits the use of preservatives and aims to minimize food additives, with a maximum shelf life of 12 months for products [11] - The introduction of these standards is expected to enhance consumer trust and promote the growth of the pre-prepared food sector, particularly benefiting leading companies with strong production and supply chain management capabilities [13][12] Group 3: Financial Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.25% at 4065 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index also declined [21][22] - The consumer sector outperformed other styles, with an average daily trading volume of 23.88 billion yuan, down from 30.365 billion yuan previously [6] - The energy sector, particularly oil and gas extraction, saw a notable increase of 4.28%, while sectors like tourism and retail experienced declines [23][25]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The IMF projects global economic growth rates of 3.3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from previous forecasts[8] - The ACC's global chemical production index remained flat in December, with a slight increase of 0.3% in the Asia-Pacific region, while North America and Europe saw declines of 0.8%[8] - Since 2022, the number of chemical plant closures in Europe has surged sixfold, with a cumulative capacity loss of 37 million tons, representing about 9% of Europe's capacity[8] Group 2: Chemical Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to improve sustainably, driven by enhanced domestic competitiveness and stable profitability among industry leaders[8] - Despite current oil prices being relatively low, they are still higher than the levels seen at the start of previous cycles, indicating a need to monitor oil price fluctuations[8] Group 3: Financial Market Overview - In the week ending February 6, 2026, global stock markets showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones and European stocks leading gains; the average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 23,880 billion yuan, down from 30,365 billion yuan[11][17] - The 1Y Chinese government bond yield rose by 2.08 basis points to 1.3207%, while the 10Y yield fell by 0.1 basis points to 1.8102%[12] Group 4: Commodity Tracking - WTI crude oil prices fell by 2.5% to $63.55 per barrel, with U.S. crude oil production decreasing by 263,000 barrels per day year-on-year[29] - Gold prices increased by 1.77% to $4,966.61 per ounce, with the Chinese central bank continuing to increase its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces in January[43]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry showed continued recovery in January 2026, with prices on an upward trend driven by AI computing demand, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, key components, and storage price increases [5][7] - Global semiconductor demand is improving, with slight growth in PCs and smartphones, and rapid growth in TWS headsets, wearable devices, and smart home products. AI servers and new energy vehicles are experiencing high growth, indicating a potential continued recovery in demand for February 2026 [5][10] - January 2026 saw a significant increase in storage prices, with DRAM and NAND Flash prices rising between 5.95% and 63.43%. The overall semiconductor price trend is expected to remain positive in February [7][10] Group 2: Company-Specific Analysis - Jerry Holdings - Jerry Holdings secured a new gas turbine generator order worth $181.5 million, which represents approximately 9.47% of the company's audited revenue for 2024. This is the fourth such contract with a U.S. client since November 2025 [13][14] - The company has accumulated over $400 million in gas turbine generator orders, establishing a new growth curve. It has expanded production capacity to meet North American demand [14][15] - Jerry Holdings has formed strategic partnerships with major players in the gas turbine industry, enhancing its supply chain resilience and providing integrated power solutions [15][17] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a slow recovery in demand, with AI investments exceeding expectations and storage chip price increases also surpassing forecasts. It is recommended to consider leading companies in AIOT and semiconductor sectors for investment [11] - For Jerry Holdings, the diversified business model and strong order book in gas turbine generators are expected to support significant profit growth, with projected net profits of 3.164 billion, 3.778 billion, and 4.449 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" investment rating for the semiconductor industry, indicating a cautious outlook amidst ongoing recovery and price increases in the sector [4]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry showed signs of recovery in January 2026, with prices continuing to rise, driven by demand from AI computing, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, key components, and storage price increases [4][5]. - Global semiconductor demand is improving, with slight growth in PCs and smartphones, and rapid growth in TWS headphones, wearable devices, and smart home products. AI servers and new energy vehicles are expected to maintain high growth rates [4]. - Despite high inventory levels, certain segments driven by AI demand are experiencing significant growth, leading to price increases from upstream wafer foundries [4][5]. - The report highlights that the semiconductor sector's performance in January 2026 saw a 16.23% increase, outperforming the broader market [11][13]. Summary by Sections Monthly Market Review - The semiconductor sector's performance in January 2026 was a 16.23% increase, while the overall electronic sector rose by 9.38% [11][13]. - The semiconductor valuation metrics indicate a PE of 98.68% and a PB of 82.16%, reflecting high historical percentiles [21][22]. Semiconductor Supply and Demand Tracking - Semiconductor prices continued to rise in January, with storage prices increasing significantly, reflecting a recovery in demand [4][5]. - AI server shipments are projected to grow over 28% in 2026, leading to increased prices for storage and CPU chips [5][20]. Downstream Demand Data - The report notes that AI servers, new energy vehicles, TWS headphones, and wearable devices are showing strong demand recovery, while smartphone sales may decline due to rising storage prices [4][5]. - Global smartphone shipments saw a slight increase of 2.28% in Q4 2025, while PC shipments increased by 9.61% year-on-year [4][5]. Industry News Highlights - Major CSP companies like Meta and Microsoft reported significant capital expenditures, indicating strong investment in AI infrastructure [5][20]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in AIOT, AI-driven innovation, and domestic supply chain replacements as potential investment opportunities [5].