[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月07日 标配 行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 [Table_NewTitle] 国产GPU新秀IPO获受理，EDA对华禁 令解封 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn ——电子行业周报2025/6/30-2025/7/6 [table_main] 投资要点： 电 子 [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 1.博通2025Q2 AI营收大幅增 长，存储市场持续回暖——电 子行业周报2025/6/2-2025/6/8 1. 小米发布首款AI眼镜，端侧AI创 新热潮持续——电子行业周报 （2025/6/23-2025/6/29） 2. DDR4价格大涨，Marvell释放 ASIC市场乐观预期——电子行业周 报（2025/6/16-2025/6/22） 3. 英伟达拟在欧洲新建多座AI工 厂，华为发布Pura 80系列——电子 行业周报（2025/6/9-2025/6/15） 件(+6.82%) ...

● 2025年以来，消费复苏缓慢，传统食品饮料需求承压，细分板块呈现结构性机会。建议优先关注成长性较强的零食，以及处于 向上修复阶段的啤酒和乳制品。 ● 啤酒：需求边际改善，成本下行释放利润弹性。2024年终端消费较弱，啤酒龙头推进渠道库存去化，库存水平处于历史低位， 板块估值回落至5年低分位。2025年1-5月社零餐饮收入同比有所改善，在旺季低基数和消费政策刺激下，啤酒销售数据修复确 定性较高，有望催化估值抬升。另外成本仍处于下行周期，叠加产品结构持续优化，利润弹性可期。建议关注生鲜高端化优势突 出，盈利改善稳健的青岛啤酒和成长势能强劲的燕京啤酒。 ● 零食：品类与渠道共振，高成长延续。零食板块呈现高景气度和高成长性，强品类与新渠道持续催化。从产品来看，消费者需求 升级趋势明显，健康功能性零食备受关注，以魔芋为代表的产品快速出圈，兼具健康属性和味觉体验，实现高增。从渠道来看， 零食量贩跑马圈地后，两大龙头占据主要市场份额。此外，会员商超渠道崛起，选品引领行业潮流，成为各大零食企业新的发力 点。建议关注盐津铺子、劲仔食品。 ● 乳制品：供需格局逐步改善，静待周期拐点到来。生鲜乳价格持续创年内新低，奶牛养殖亏损 ...

⚫ 上半年出货增速向好，关注后续基数等因素的影响。回顾2024年，国补政策主要在四季度发力。进入2025年，从产业在线的出货 数据看，上半年尚未显现市场所担忧的透支效应。2025年上半年，空调内销需求延续较为旺盛的趋势。尤其从二季度来看，受益 于去年较低的同期基数以及旺季叠加"618"等促销备货的催化，出货增速有所加快。出货数据反映的是经销商的提货意愿。从零 售角度看，随着4月传统旺季启动，市场亦有回暖迹象，奥维云网数据显示，4月空调线上零售同比增长34.8%，线下零售同比增长 12.2%。暑期天气因素对空调销售有一定催化作用。例如，对华北、华东等地的持续高温预期，或带动渠道备货及终端购买。而从 基数看，2024年的二季度部分南方地区持续阴雨，致使空调零售基数较低。此外，今年头部品牌在以旧换新的背景下采取更为主 动的营销策略，折扣玩法及配套服务均有所优化；京东、苏宁等电商平台也加强了针对以旧换新的体验式营销。但同时，部分消费 者呈现出消费降级的意愿，购买决策周期延长，更倾向于等待"618"等大型促销节点集中释放需求。综合来看，考虑到2024年空 调出货"前低后高"的影响，以旧换新对短期出货的边际拉动作用或将有 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月07日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle]20250707 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.《美丽大法案》与中国反内卷，周期对资产价格的影响——资产配置周报（2025/06/30- 2025/07/04） ➢ 2.技术迭代引领长期价值增长，关注各环节龙头表现——储能行业深度报告 ➢ 3.私人部门疲软显露，政府部门撑起半边天——海外观察：美国2025年6月非农数据 ➢ 1.特朗普称8月1日起实施新关税，最高税率或达70% ➢ 2.住建部：持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势 ➢ 3.法国总统马克 ...

Employment Data Overview - In June 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations of 110,000 and slightly up from the previous month's 144,000[2] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, indicating a slight improvement in the labor market[2] Private vs. Government Employment - Private sector employment added only 74,000 jobs, nearly half of May's increase of 137,000, highlighting a significant slowdown[2] - Government employment surged by 73,000, with state government jobs rising to 47,000, the highest since February 2023, signaling a shift in fiscal policy towards expansion[2] Sector-Specific Insights - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 7,000, while wholesale employment also fell by 7,000, attributed to inventory buildup and weak demand[2] - Service sector jobs saw a decline of over 53%, with healthcare and accommodation sectors experiencing the most significant drops[2] Wage and Participation Rate Trends - The labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, the lowest since 2023, indicating a shrinking workforce[2] - Hourly wage growth slowed, particularly in durable goods manufacturing and healthcare, with rates dropping to -0.3% and -0.1% respectively[2] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the employment data release, market expectations for a September interest rate cut decreased from 71.5% to 68.3%[3] - The strong government employment figures and the passage of the "Beautiful America Act" suggest a potential shift towards more expansive fiscal policies in the second half of the year[3]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry showed continuous recovery in June 2025, with price increases expanding, driven by demand in AI computing, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, and key components [6][8][12] - Global semiconductor sales in April 2025 increased by 22.68% year-on-year, indicating overall demand recovery [8] - The demand for TWS earphones, wearable devices, AI servers, and new energy vehicles is recovering well, contributing significantly to semiconductor demand [9][12] Group 2: Satellite Chemical Company Overview - The U.S. has lifted the export ban on ethane to China, which is expected to benefit Satellite Chemical, given its core assets in U.S. ethane exports [13][14] - Satellite Chemical has secured a long-term agreement for 175,000 barrels per day of ethane from its U.S. terminal, enhancing its competitive position [15][16] - The company is positioned in the lowest cost range for ethylene production in China, benefiting from lower operational and raw material costs [17][18] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Asset Allocation Outlook - The domestic economy is showing resilience driven by export demand and new policies, although real estate remains a pressure point [19][20] - The second half of 2025 is expected to see a gradual decline in GDP growth rates, with a focus on the importance of domestic demand [19][20] - Asset allocation strategies suggest a focus on technology and consumer sectors, with a balanced approach to core and satellite investments in banking [21][24] Group 4: Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector is facing increased competition, particularly among regional banks, leading to a wave of mergers and acquisitions [22][23] - Profitability and dividend stability are expected to remain, with a focus on balancing core and satellite strategies in investment portfolios [24][25] - The outlook for the banking sector remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of stable profits and dividends despite potential risks [25]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy focusing on both core and satellite positions within the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for stable profits and dividends [3][4]. Core Insights - The banking industry is experiencing intensified competition, particularly among regional banks, which are undergoing significant reforms and consolidation to enhance market competitiveness and financial stability [3][18]. - Recent operational pressures have emerged, with banks facing challenges in asset-liability management, net interest margins, and asset quality, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and regulatory frameworks [3][4]. - Profitability and dividend distributions are expected to remain stable, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumption [3][4]. - The report advocates for a "core + satellite" investment strategy, recommending high-dividend state-owned banks as core holdings, complemented by cyclical regional banks as satellite investments [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Competitive Landscape of Commercial Banks - National banks dominate the market due to their capital, network, and customer advantages, while regional banks are increasingly consolidating to improve competitiveness [3][10]. 2. Business Models of Commercial Banks - National banks focus on diversified business models, while regional banks primarily engage in asset-liability operations, heavily reliant on local economic conditions [3][26]. 3. Performance Attribution of Commercial Banks - The performance of banks is driven by three factors: scale (asset size), price (net interest margin), and quality (asset quality), all of which are currently under pressure [3][4]. 4. Outlook for Commercial Banking Operations - The report anticipates a stabilization in profits and dividends, with a positive outlook for the banking sector as macroeconomic policies continue to support recovery in consumption and investment [3][4]. 5. Investment Strategy - A balanced investment approach is recommended, focusing on high-dividend state-owned banks and cyclical regional banks to optimize returns in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4].

Economic Performance - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative year-on-year export growth was 6.0%, with a cumulative trade surplus of $471.9 billion, the highest for the same period in history[43] - The contribution of net exports to GDP in Q1 was 2.13%, accounting for 39.5% of GDP growth[43] Industrial Production - Industrial production maintained stability with an average year-on-year growth of 6.4% from January to May, surpassing the previous year's average of 5.6%[54] - The equipment manufacturing sector showed significant growth, supported by both investment in equipment updates and exports[54] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was 3.7% year-on-year in the first five months, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments remaining stable, while real estate investment continued to be a drag[21] - Equipment updates contributed over 60% to overall fixed asset investment growth, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% in equipment purchases from January to May[25] Consumer Behavior - The contribution rate of the "old-for-new" consumption policy to overall retail sales growth was 24.3% cumulatively from January to May, with May's contribution reaching 31.8%[13] - Consumer spending inclination was at 63.1% in Q1 2025, still below pre-pandemic levels, indicating ongoing challenges in boosting consumer confidence[18] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment is expected to maintain a decline of around -10% in the second half of 2025, with pressures on sales and investment continuing[42] - The land transaction area in 100 cities saw a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% in the first five months, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[34] Policy Impact - The government has implemented a series of financial policies to stabilize the market, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and various structural tools aimed at boosting consumption and supporting small and medium enterprises[75] - The issuance of special bonds for land reserves and urban renewal projects has increased, with a focus on supporting real estate-related investments[81]

Group 1 - The report highlights the frequent release of new products by companies like Xiaomi and Honor, emphasizing the importance of the domestic production process for new materials [5][6] - The Chinese government is supporting equipment upgrades in the petrochemical and chemical industries with a funding of 200 billion yuan, which is expected to accelerate the modernization of these sectors [5][6] - The introduction of new products, such as Xiaomi's first SUV and Honor's latest smartphones, is seen as a significant advancement in China's consumer electronics sector, potentially driving the domestic supply chain and high-end material development [6][9] Group 2 - The report indicates that the securities sector may experience upward momentum after a period of consolidation, with technical indicators showing positive trends [11][12] - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown resilience, maintaining above key moving averages despite recent fluctuations, suggesting potential for further gains [19][20] - The report notes that large capital inflows into the market indicate strong buying interest, which may support continued upward movement in the securities sector [15][19] Group 3 - The report tracks industry performance, noting that the petrochemical index has underperformed compared to the broader market, while the basic chemical index has outperformed [7][22] - Specific sub-sectors such as membrane materials and other plastic products have shown significant price increases, indicating strong demand and potential investment opportunities [7][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting resilient and advantageous sectors within the chemical industry, particularly those benefiting from supply-side reforms and domestic production initiatives [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the resumption of U.S. ethane exports to China, which is expected to benefit the company significantly due to its core assets in U.S. ethane exports [6]. - The company has a competitive edge with its low ethylene production costs and integrated supply chain advantages, positioning it well for future growth [6]. - The report projects substantial revenue and profit growth for the company from 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 588.39 billion, 681.97 billion, and 788.11 billion respectively, and net profits of 72.21 billion, 92.46 billion, and 117.78 billion respectively [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 336,865 million shares and a closing price of 17.31 as of July 2, 2025 [1]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 53.62%, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.83 and a weighted return on equity of 5.05% [1]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. has lifted the export ban on ethane to China, which is crucial for the company's operations as it owns a significant export terminal in the U.S. [6]. - The report notes that the construction of new ethane terminals in the U.S. is unlikely due to high investment costs and regulatory challenges [6]. Competitive Position - The company is positioned in the lowest cost range for ethylene production in China, benefiting from technological advancements and lower raw material costs [6]. - The company plans to expand its fleet of VLEC ships to enhance its logistics capabilities, with an investment of 257 billion for six new vessels [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates are projected at 28.90% for 2025, followed by 15.90% and 15.56% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.14, 2.74, and 3.50 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8].