Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - Trane Technologies reported strong Q4 2025 financial results with revenue of $5.1 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EPS was $2.86, up 10% year-over-year. New orders reached $5.8 billion, a 24% increase, with a record backlog of $7.8 billion, indicating robust future revenue potential [5]. - The financial guidance for 2026 is optimistic, with expected revenue growth of 8.5% to 9.5% year-over-year and adjusted EPS guidance of $14.65 to $14.85, reflecting a growth rate of approximately 12% to 14% [5]. - The North American commercial HVAC business is the core growth driver, with Q4 2025 orders up over 35%, and large application equipment orders increasing by over 120%. The order-to-shipment ratio was 200%, indicating strong demand in sectors like higher education and healthcare [5]. - Trane Technologies is enhancing its data center cooling solutions, offering a range of products designed for high-density server environments, including a new DCDA series for the Asia-Pacific market [5]. - Strategic acquisitions, such as the purchase of Stellar Energy, are aimed at strengthening Trane's position in the data center market, particularly in modular cooling solutions [5]. - The report suggests that the growth in data centers will drive demand for efficient cooling solutions, presenting opportunities for Chinese temperature control industry players [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue was $5.1 billion, a 6% increase year-over-year. Adjusted EPS was $2.86, a 10% increase. New orders were $5.8 billion, a 24% increase, with a backlog of $7.8 billion [5]. Market Outlook - The 2026 financial guidance anticipates revenue growth of 8.5% to 9.5% and adjusted EPS of $14.65 to $14.85, indicating a growth rate of 12% to 14% [5]. Business Segments - The North American commercial HVAC sector is expected to drive growth, with significant increases in orders and a strong order-to-shipment ratio [5]. Product Development - Trane is expanding its data center cooling product offerings and has introduced new solutions tailored for the Asia-Pacific market [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of Stellar Energy is expected to enhance Trane's capabilities in the data center market, particularly in modular cooling solutions [5]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential growth opportunities for Chinese companies in the temperature control industry, driven by the demand for efficient cooling solutions in data centers [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Shaanxi鼓动力 (601369), highlighting its position as a leading energy conversion equipment manufacturer with a strong focus on "manufacturing + operation + service" synergy [2]. Core Insights - The company has a strong technological foundation in energy conversion equipment, particularly in compressors, and has maintained a high cash dividend policy with a payout ratio exceeding 60% from 2019 to 2024 [10][33]. - The domestic compressed air energy storage market is rapidly expanding, with the company signing multiple projects that enhance its market position [45][57]. - The coal chemical industry is experiencing significant growth, with the company benefiting from various milestone projects in this sector [3][25]. - The industrial gas operation segment is becoming a stable growth engine for the company, contributing significantly to its revenue [26][28]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shaanxi鼓动力, established in 1968, specializes in energy conversion equipment manufacturing and related services, achieving international advanced technology levels in its core products [10]. - The company operates in various industrial sectors, including energy conversion equipment, industrial services, and energy infrastructure operations [15]. Market Expansion - The new energy storage capacity in China has grown rapidly, with a cumulative installed capacity of 73.76 million kW by the end of 2024, significantly benefiting the company [45]. - The company has signed contracts for several large-scale compressed air energy storage projects, enhancing its competitive edge in this emerging market [57]. Coal Chemical Industry - The coal chemical sector is strategically important due to China's energy structure, with the company participating in key projects that leverage its technological capabilities [25][3]. - The company has secured contracts for significant coal-to-gas and coal-to-oil projects, positioning itself as a core equipment supplier in the coal chemical industry [25]. Financial Performance - The company has shown stable profitability, with revenue growth from 7.304 billion yuan in 2019 to 10.361 billion yuan in 2021, and a net profit increase from 603 million yuan to 1.042 billion yuan in the same period [33]. - The company maintains a high cash reserve, with 10.955 billion yuan in cash as of Q3 2025, representing 44.32% of total assets, and consistently high dividend payouts [37][33]. Industrial Gas Operations - The company's gas operation business has become a significant revenue driver, with a market share exceeding 82% in domestic air separation compressors [26]. - The revenue from energy infrastructure operations reached 3.962 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 38.55% of total revenue, reflecting the growth of its gas operation segment [28].

宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月04日 [对"沃什鹰派"的一些不同的观点 Table_NewTitle] ——海外观察：美国经济热点简评 [table_main] 投资要点 矛盾点一：从"数据模型的不信赖"到"以市场价格稳定为信号灯"。沃什在2014年指 责美联储对DSGE/FRB-US模型的过度依赖，认为模型数据过于滞后并严重低估金融脆 弱性，更应关注市场本身；在2025年再次指出美联储对"大幅修正的政府数据"过度依 赖，决策滞后过多。沃什主张的"货币主义"或导致美联储后续更倾向于观察市场价格 以及高频信息，或以金融指标、市场价格、企业银行资产负债表等作为美联储的信号灯， 同时强调美联储的政策边界，尽量减少美联储给出的前瞻指引。但是其主张的根本矛盾 在于，当前市场的波动依然严重依赖于美国经济数据，美联储作为市场锚定的明灯，如 果其对数据模型给予否定，短期情况下可能令市场震荡加剧，长期情况下 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月04日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [对"沃什鹰派"的一些不同的观点 Table_NewTitle] ——海外观察：美国经济热点简评 [table_main] 投资要点 矛盾点一：从"数据模型的不信赖"到"以市场价格稳定为信号灯"。沃什在2014年指 责美联储对DSGE/FRB-US模型的过度依赖，认为模型数据过于滞后并严重低估金融脆 弱性，更应关注市场本身；在2025年再次指出美联储对"大幅修正的政府数据"过度依 赖，决策滞后过多。沃什主张的"货币主义"或导致美联储后续更倾向于观察市场价格 以及高频信息，或以金融指标、市场价格、企业银行资产负债表等作为美联储的信号灯， 同时强调美联储的政策边界，尽量减少美联储给出的前瞻指引。但是其主张的根本矛盾 在于，当前市场的波动依然严重依赖于美国经济数据，美联储作为市场锚定的明灯，如 果其对数据模型给予否定，短期情况下可能令市场震荡加剧，长期情况下 ...

李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20260204 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 [Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月04日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] | | 1.1. 旺季预期积极，关注春节备货行情——食品饮料行业周报（2026/1/26- | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2026/2/1） | | 3 | | 1.2. 头部 CSP | 资本开支持续高增，平头哥发布全自研 | AI | 训推一体芯片——电子 | | 行业周报 2026/1/26-2025/2/1 | | | 4 | | 2. 财经新闻 | | | 6 | | 3. A | 股市场评述 | | 7 | | 4. 市场数据 | | | 9 | 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery opportunity in the restaurant sector, with overall performance in food and beverage categories showing improvement in Q4 2025. Sales of frozen foods increased by 6.5% year-on-year, with specific categories like hot pot balls, frozen sausages, and shrimp slides seeing sales growth of approximately 15%, 45%, and 55% respectively [3][4] - The listing of "Mingming Hen Mang" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has attracted attention to the snack sector, with the company being the largest chain retailer in China, maintaining rapid growth and expanding its market share [4] - Raw milk prices have stabilized and are showing signs of recovery, with the average price of fresh milk at 3.04 yuan/kg as of January 23, 2026, reflecting a slight increase. The report suggests a positive outlook for meat and dairy prices in 2026 due to favorable import policies [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector rose by 1.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.48 percentage points, ranking 6th among 31 sectors [5][11] - The liquor sub-sector performed well, increasing by 3.86% [5][11] 2. Major Consumer Goods and Raw Material Prices - As of January 23, 2026, the retail price of milk was 12.20 yuan/liter, and yogurt was 15.88 yuan/kg. The price of fresh milk was 3.04 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.60% [28] - The price of live pigs was 12.30 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.10% [28] 3. Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the profit of the liquor, beverage, and refined tea manufacturing industry decreased by 9.1%, with total revenue of 1,468.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [56] - The wholesale and retail industry's added value reached 14.6 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 5% year-on-year, marking a historical high [56] 4. Core Company Dynamics - "Gu Jing Gong Jiu" announced a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 529 million yuan. "Yi Ming Food" expects a net profit increase of 62.38% to 90.02% [57]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing opportunities in cyclical industries from price expectations to performance realization, with a focus on the relationship between commodities and US Treasury yields [5][7][8] - In the week ending January 30, 2026, global stock markets showed mixed results, with Hong Kong and UK markets leading gains, while major commodity futures saw significant fluctuations, particularly in crude oil prices [5][6] - The report highlights that the manufacturing PMI for January 2026 fell to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December, influenced by the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month [10][11] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the decline in the manufacturing PMI is not solely due to seasonal factors but also reflects a high base from the previous month, which saw an unusual improvement [10][11] - The report notes that the production index decreased to 50.6%, while the new orders index fell below the threshold to 49.2%, indicating a slowdown in demand [11][12] - The non-manufacturing PMI also showed weakness, dropping to 49.5%, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector, which was affected by seasonal factors and a high base from the previous month [12][13] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of various sectors in the domestic equity market, with financials, cyclical, and consumer sectors leading in trading volume, while 10 sectors saw gains and 21 sectors experienced declines [6][18] - The report highlights that the energy sector, particularly crude oil, saw significant price increases due to geopolitical tensions, while precious metals experienced a sharp decline following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair [5][7] - The report also mentions that the A-share market is currently facing downward pressure, with major indices showing significant declines, and emphasizes the need to monitor support levels in the coming weeks [18][19]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of seizing opportunities in cyclical industries from price expectations to performance realization, particularly focusing on the relationship between commodities and US Treasury yields [5][7] - In the week ending January 30, 2026, global stock markets showed mixed results, with Hong Kong and the UK markets leading gains, while major commodity futures like crude oil saw significant increases [5][6] - The report highlights that the manufacturing PMI for January 2026 fell to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December, indicating a contraction influenced by the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month [10][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the correlation between commodity prices and US Treasury yields, noting that during different economic phases, their relationship varies, particularly at economic turning points [8][9] - The January PMI data indicates a decline in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, with the manufacturing PMI reflecting a drop due to seasonal factors and high base effects [10][12] - The report outlines new regulations from the China Securities Regulatory Commission aimed at standardizing public fund performance benchmarks, which will take effect on March 1, 2026, to protect long-term investor interests [14][15] Group 3 - The report notes that the high-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing sectors remain above the prosperity line, while downstream consumer goods manufacturing has not sustained its previous strength, reflecting weak domestic demand [11][13] - The report indicates that the service sector's PMI also showed weakness, particularly in the real estate sector, which has seen a significant decline, impacting overall confidence [12][13] - The report suggests that the new regulations will enhance transparency and accountability in fund management, thereby improving investor trust and decision-making [17][18]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing cyclical industries from price expectations to performance realization, highlighting the relationship between commodity prices and U.S. Treasury rates [8][9][10] - In the domestic equity market, the financial sector outperformed, with a daily average trading volume of 30,365 billion yuan, showing a significant increase from the previous value of 27,750 billion yuan [18][19] - The report identifies that in the week ending January 30, 2026, the oil and petrochemical industry saw a notable increase of 7.95%, while the defense and military industry experienced a decline of 7.69% [18][21] Group 2 - The report notes that commodity prices experienced significant fluctuations, particularly with oil prices rising sharply, while gold and silver prices fell dramatically following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman [8][9][12] - The relationship between commodity prices and U.S. Treasury rates varies across different economic phases, with commodity prices initially performing strongly during economic overheating and facing short-term pressure during economic downturns [9][10] - The report highlights that the latest manufacturing PMI data from China indicates a decrease in raw material inventory but an increase in finished goods inventory, suggesting a mismatch between supply and demand [10][24] Group 3 - The report discusses the stable liquidity environment, with short-term funding pressures expected to remain moderate due to the central bank's supportive stance and reduced expansion demands from commercial banks [19][22] - It mentions that the long-term bond market is expected to experience a "weak reality + strong expectation" dynamic, influenced by structural economic highlights and the central bank's cautious monetary policy [20][22] - The report indicates that the U.S. Treasury market is facing potential inflationary pressures and increased supply, predicting continued high volatility in Treasury yields [25][26]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, compared to 50.2% in the previous month[2] - The decline in PMI is attributed to the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing PMIs remain above the threshold at 52.0% and 50.1% respectively, despite slight declines[2] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3%, indicating a significant decrease of 2.1 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, reflecting seasonal impacts and a high base from the previous month[2] Group 3: Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, while the factory price index reached 50.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points[2] - This marks the first time in 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point, suggesting a potential narrowing of PPI declines[2] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The production index decreased to 50.6%, down by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, down by 1.6 percentage points[2] - The new export orders index also declined to 47.8%, indicating a slowdown in export momentum compared to the previous month[2] Group 5: Policy and Economic Outlook - The first batch of "two new" funds has been allocated, and a coordinated fiscal and financial policy to boost domestic demand has been deployed[2] - Continued attention is needed on marginal changes in investment, consumer performance during the Spring Festival, and new policies from the upcoming Two Sessions[2]