[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月02日 [抢出口有支撑，但强度相对温和 Table_NewTitle] ——国内观察：2025年5月PMI [table_main] 投资要点 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 ➢ 事件：5月31日，国家统计局公布5月官方PMI数据。5月，制造业PMI为49.5%，前值49.0%； 非制造业PMI为50.3%，前值50.4%。 ➢ 核心观点：日内瓦联合声明带来的中美贸易关系的缓和，是推动5月制造业PMI回升的主 要原因，供需指数均有所回升。不过，与4月的回落相比，5月并非等比例回升，且回升 后的绝对水平要低于一季度均值，指向这一轮"抢出口"可能偏温和。另一方面，出口 基数5月开始逐步抬升，后续增速中枢大概率小幅下行。虽然4月经济整体仍有韧性，但 地产拖累仍深。后续来看，"底线思维"的要求下，增量政策的必要性仍强。 ➢ 制造业PMI超季节性回升。5月制造业PMI环比改善0.5个百分点，高于近5年同期均值的 0.1%。主因关税冲击阶段性缓和后，生产以及新订单指数都有一定程度的回升。 ➢ 供需均有回 ...

Key Recommendations - The chemical supply-side reform is gaining momentum, with certain sectors showing more potential for growth. The report identifies ten sectors with significant reductions in capacity investment, including organic silicon, rubber products, and fluorine chemicals. Additionally, sectors like compound fertilizers and fluorine chemicals are expected to see better recovery in profitability and cash flow [5][6][7]. Industry Analysis - The overall capacity investment in the basic chemical industry has continued to decrease, indicating that the industry is at a turning point. The ratio of capital expenditure to depreciation and amortization has dropped from 2.26 to 1.64, while cash flow has shown signs of improvement. This situation is reminiscent of the supply-side reforms initiated in 2014-2015, suggesting that current policies may also drive a recovery in the chemical sector [6][7]. Specific Company Insights - Japan's Mitsui Chemicals announced its exit from the nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) business, which is expected to enhance China's competitiveness in electronic specialty gases. The global market for electronic specialty gases is projected to reach $6.023 billion by 2025, with China's market expected to be around 20 billion yuan in 2024 [10][12][14]. Market Trends - The report highlights that China's production capacity for nitrogen trifluoride has been increasing, with a production capacity of 25,000 tons per year and an output of approximately 24,000 tons in 2023. The export volume of nitrogen trifluoride has significantly surpassed imports, indicating a growing domestic capability [13][14]. Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors and companies that may benefit from supply-side reforms. Key sectors include organic silicon, membrane materials, and dyeing agents, with recommended companies such as Hoshine Silicon Industry and Zhejiang Longsheng. Additionally, companies in the electronic specialty gas sector, such as Nanda Special Gas and China Shipbuilding Special Gas, are highlighted for their potential growth [7][14].

Group 1: Chemical Industry Research - The chemical industry is at a critical turning point, with supply-side reforms expected to play a significant role in improving the sector's performance [6][7] - In 2024, capital expenditure in the basic chemical sector continues to decrease, indicating a contraction in capacity investment, with the capital expenditure to depreciation ratio dropping from 2.26 to 1.64 [7] - The top ten sub-sectors with significant reductions in capacity investment include organic silicon, rubber products, and fluorine chemicals, while sectors like compound fertilizers and fluorine chemicals show signs of recovery in profitability and cash flow [7][8] Group 2: Changshu Bank Analysis - Changshu Bank reported a Q1 2025 operating income of 2.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%, and a net profit of 1.084 billion yuan, up 13.81% year-on-year [11][12] - The bank's total assets reached 389.015 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76%, reflecting prudent asset quality management [11][12] - Non-interest income showed strong performance, with a significant increase in commission income driven by financial investments and precious metals agency services [14][15] Group 3: Electronic Specialty Gases Industry - Mitsui Chemicals of Japan announced its exit from the nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) business, which may enhance China's competitiveness in electronic specialty gases [18][19] - The global electronic specialty gas market is projected to reach $6.023 billion by 2025, with China's market expected to be around 20 billion yuan in 2024 [20][21] - China's production capacity for NF3 has increased, with 2023 figures showing a production capacity of 25,000 tons per year and an output of approximately 24,000 tons, making NF3 a net export product [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in non-interest income and maintained prudent asset quality management [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.084 billion yuan, up 13.81% year-on-year [4][5]. - The total asset scale at the end of Q1 was 389.015 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.67%, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. - The net interest margin for the quarter was 2.61%, a decrease of 22 basis points year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s Q1 investment income and fair value changes amounted to 471 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.06%, outperforming industry levels [5]. - The net commission income reached 71 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 495.23% [5]. Asset Quality - The company maintained a stable overall asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% at the end of Q1, down 1 basis point from the previous quarter [5]. - The company continues to adopt a cautious approach, increasing provisions, with asset impairment losses rising by 13% year-on-year [5]. Future Outlook - The company expects further downward pressure on interest margins due to a new round of interest rate cuts, which will benefit its deposit structure primarily composed of personal deposits [8]. - The updated profit forecast for 2025-2027 anticipates operating revenues of 11.712 billion, 12.225 billion, and 13.570 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.238 billion, 4.687 billion, and 5.214 billion yuan [8][29].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The exit of Japan's Mitsui Chemicals from the NF3 business highlights the increasing competitiveness of China's electronic gases, suggesting potential for market share expansion [6]. - The global electronic specialty gas market is projected to reach USD 6.023 billion by 2025, with China's electronic gas market expected to be around RMB 20 billion in 2024 [6]. - China's production capacity for NF3 is 25,000 tons per year, with an output of approximately 24,000 tons in 2023, indicating a high utilization rate of 93% [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Mitsui Chemicals announced the cessation of its NF3 production due to rising costs and intense competition, with operations expected to halt by March 2026 [6]. - NF3 is a critical material in semiconductor manufacturing, known for its excellent etching rates and selectivity in microelectronics [6]. Market Dynamics - The electronic gas market is dominated by four major international suppliers, which hold nearly 70% of the global market share [6]. - China's NF3 has become a net export product, with exports in 2023 reaching 2,545.42 tons, significantly outpacing imports of 344.23 tons [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on listed companies in the electronic gas sector, such as Nanda Optoelectronics, China Shipbuilding Special Gas, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the market dynamics following Mitsui's exit [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's non-interest income performance is strong, and asset quality management is prudent [1][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.084 billion yuan, up 13.81% year-on-year [4][5]. - The total asset scale at the end of Q1 was 389.015 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.67%, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a Q1 investment income and fair value changes of 471 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.06%, outperforming industry levels [5]. - The net interest margin for Q1 was 2.61%, a decrease of 22 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to lower loan rates and a decline in the proportion of high-yield personal loans [5][6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of Q1 was 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 489.56%, down 10.95 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. - The company continues to adopt a cautious approach, increasing provisions, with asset impairment losses rising by 13% year-on-year [5]. Future Outlook - The report projects operating revenues for 2025-2027 to be 11.712 billion, 12.225 billion, and 13.570 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.238 billion, 4.687 billion, and 5.214 billion yuan [6][8]. - The company maintains a strong capital position, with a projected PB ratio of 0.82, 0.73, and 0.66 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the chemical industry, indicating that it is at a critical turning point with potential for recovery in various sub-sectors [15][72]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a reduction in overall capacity investment, with a significant drop in capital expenditure ratios from 2.26 to 1.64, indicating a shift towards supply-side reforms [15][19]. - Key sectors showing recovery potential include compound fertilizers, fluorochemicals, membrane materials, and food additives, while potassium fertilizers and coal chemicals are also improving but remain at historically high capacity levels [19][72]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms and suggests that the industry is at a pivotal moment, similar to the reforms seen in 2014-2015 [15][72]. Summary by Sections 1. Research Methodology and Industry Overview - The report utilizes three financial indicators: capital expenditure/depreciation and amortization, ROE (return on equity), and net cash flow from operating activities/revenue to assess the chemical industry's capacity and performance over the past decade [14][15]. - Recent policies emphasize stabilizing prices and reducing ineffective supply, which aligns with the industry's current trends [14]. 2. Key Sub-Sector Analysis - **Silicone**: Significant reduction in capital expenditure, with cash flow improving rapidly. The sector is expected to enter a new cycle if capacity clearing continues [24][25]. - **Membrane Materials**: The sector is at a low point in profitability, but leading companies are showing signs of recovery in ROE [28]. - **Chlor-alkali**: Initial capacity clearing is underway, with profitability beginning to rebound [34]. - **Coal Chemicals**: Despite high historical capital investment, the sector is seeing a rebound in ROE and cash flow [39]. - **Modified Plastics**: The sector is experiencing rational capacity investment with improving demand, leading to better profitability [47]. - **Fluorochemicals**: The refrigerant segment is performing well, but other products face intense competition and require structural adjustments [53]. - **Food and Feed Additives**: The sector is expected to maintain a positive cycle, benefiting from stable demand in the food and beverage industry [54]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with significant supply-side reform potential, such as silicone, membrane materials, and chlor-alkali, with specific companies highlighted for investment [75]. - Monitor sectors with relative advantages or leading companies, including coal chemicals and fluorochemicals [75]. - Emphasize demand-driven sectors, particularly food additives and modified plastics, where leading companies are expected to perform well [75].

Group 1 - The profit growth of industrial enterprises continues to recover, with significant support from the equipment manufacturing sector. In April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year-on-year, up from 0.8% in the previous month. The recovery trend is supported by new policies and a decrease in raw material costs, which has led to a seasonal rebound in profit margins [6][7][8] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing strategic stability among leading liquor companies, with expectations for demand recovery. The sector saw a decline of 1.27% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index. However, pre-processed food performed well, increasing by 3.41% [10][11] - The litigation surrounding Roundup is expected to drive the market for glyphosate and glufosinate in the long term. If Bayer's settlement fails, domestic glyphosate producers may benefit from reduced competition in North America and increased demand for glufosinate as a safer alternative [16][17][19] - The non-bank financial sector is seeing an acceleration in the launch of floating management fee rate funds, with a recent LPR reduction expected to lead to adjustments in preset interest rates in Q3. The introduction of new floating management fee rate funds aims to enhance the alignment of interests between fund managers and investors [20][21][22] Group 2 - The beer industry is showing signs of improvement as the demand season approaches, with April production increasing by 4.8% year-on-year. Companies like Qingdao Beer are focusing on consumer-centered strategies and expanding their market presence in southern China [12] - The snack food sector is experiencing high growth and demand, particularly for healthy options like konjac products. The restaurant supply chain is also expected to benefit from policy stimuli, with a focus on cost control and growth potential in the industry [13][14] - The dairy product sector is poised for recovery as demand increases due to favorable policies. The supply-demand balance for raw milk is expected to improve, leading to a stabilization of milk prices and a potential rebound in profitability for leading dairy companies [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent explosion at Youdao Chemical, which may lead to stricter production regulations in the chemical industry. This incident is expected to impact the recovery timeline for the company and could accelerate market consolidation in the chlorantraniliprole sector [6]. - The chlorantraniliprole market has seen significant price declines due to increased domestic production following the expiration of patents. The price dropped from over 1 million CNY per ton in August 2022 to 228,000 CNY per ton by May 25, 2025 [6]. - The report suggests that the agricultural chemical industry may benefit from reduced supply due to production accidents, potentially leading to price increases for certain pesticide products in the short term [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the chlorantraniliprole market, noting that it is the world's leading insecticide with a global sales increase from 1.402 billion USD in 2017 to 1.93 billion USD in 2022. The market is dominated by China, which accounted for 58% of global exports in 2024 [6]. Key Events - The explosion at Youdao Chemical on May 27, 2025, is a significant event that may lead to longer recovery times and stricter regulations in the industry [6]. Production Capacity - Major companies with production capacity include Youdao Chemical (11,000 tons/year), Hubei Yilihong Chemical (30,000 tons/year), and others, indicating a competitive landscape with potential overcapacity [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with technological advantages and registration reserves, such as Yangnong Chemical, Guangxin Co., Lier Chemical, and others, as they are likely to gain market share amid industry consolidation [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1][58]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 1.27% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.09 percentage points, ranking 22nd among 31 sectors [4][10]. - The report highlights that the liquor industry is at a bottom valuation level, with expectations for demand recovery driven by policy support [4][5]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to stabilize in 2025 due to adjustments in production capacity and favorable policies [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance was down 1.27%, with pre-processed foods showing a positive increase of 3.41% [4][10]. - Top-performing stocks included Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, while stocks like Western Pastoral and Shanxi Fenjiu faced significant declines [4][10]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - Liquor prices showed slight declines, with Moutai's retail price at 2080 RMB for scattered bottles, down 10 RMB from the previous month [22]. - Beer production in April 2025 reached 289.60 million hectoliters, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [28]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with fresh milk priced at 12.15 RMB per liter, showing a slight decrease [30]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a significant increase in beer exports from Putian, Fujian, with a 28.6% rise in volume [54]. - The liquor production for the first four months of 2025 was 130.8 million hectoliters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% [55]. 4. Core Company Developments - Kweichow Moutai is focusing on five key areas for development, including strengthening its core business and enhancing brand culture [4]. - Qingdao Beer is optimizing its resource allocation in southern markets and expanding its online retail capabilities [4].