Group 1: PMI Overview - In November, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month[3] - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5%, down from 50.1% previously[3] - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the easing of US-China trade tensions, particularly in new export orders[3] Group 2: Demand and Supply Indicators - The production index rose to 50.0% (+0.3 percentage points), indicating a return to the growth line[3] - The new orders index increased to 49.2% (+0.4 percentage points), showing a stronger-than-seasonal demand recovery[3] - The new export orders index saw a significant rise to 47.6% (+1.7 percentage points), above the average of 47.2% for the first ten months of the year[3] Group 3: Price Indices and Sector Performance - The main raw material purchase price index increased to 53.6% (+1.1 percentage points), while the factory price index rose to 48.2% (+0.7 percentage points)[3] - High-energy-consuming industries showed a low-level rebound, with the PMI for these sectors at 48.4% (+1.1 percentage points)[3] - The construction PMI was reported at 49.6%, up by 0.5 percentage points, reflecting the impact of policy financial tools[3] Group 4: Seasonal Effects and Risks - The service sector PMI fell to 49.5%, down by 0.7 percentage points, influenced by the end of holiday effects[3] - Risks include potential underperformance of growth stabilization policies and real estate downturns[3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The industrial robot production growth rate is impressive, and the domestic substitution in the industry chain is continuously advancing [3]. - The establishment of industry standards and evaluation systems is accelerating, which is expected to guide more orderly industrial development [6]. - The standardization work plays a crucial role in the development of China's robot industry, with 126 national standards published since the establishment of the National Robot Standardization Technical Committee in 2021 [6]. - A group standard for humanoid robot intelligence classification has been established, which helps clarify the technical development direction for enterprises along the industry chain [6]. - The establishment of a public service platform for embodied intelligence is underway, providing comprehensive services for technology research and development, data collection, and industrial application [6]. - A national-level standardization pilot for embodied intelligence has been launched, aiming to establish over 80 standards for training grounds across the country [6]. - The standardization efforts are expected to create a fair competitive market environment, alleviating market chaos and promoting high-quality industry development [6].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年11月28日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251128 重点推荐 财经要闻 ➢ 1.国家发改委：要注意防范重复度高的人形机器人产品"扎堆"上市 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.基数压力显现，行业亦有分化——国内观察：2025年10月工业企业利润数据 ➢ 2.10月挖掘机外销持续向好，龙头推进电动化全球化——机械设备行业简评 晨会纪要 1.重点推荐 1.1.基数压力显现，行业亦有分化——国内观察：2025 年 10 月工业企业利润数据 | 1. 重点推荐 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1. 基数压力显现，行业亦有分化——国内观察：2025 | 年 10 月工业企业利润数 | | | 据 | | 3 | ...

Group 1: Excavator and Loader Sales - In October 2025, excavator sales reached 18,096 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%, with domestic sales at 8,468 units (up 2.44%) and exports at 9,628 units (up 12.9%) [5][6] - For the first ten months of 2025, a total of 192,135 excavators were sold, representing a 17% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales increasing by 19.6% and exports by 14.4% [5][6] - Loader sales in October 2025 totaled 10,673 units, a 27.7% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales up 33.2% and exports up 22.6% [5] Group 2: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The domestic excavator market is recovering strongly, supported by government initiatives for urban renewal and infrastructure projects, which are expected to release demand [6][8] - The global demand for excavators is also increasing, with a 14.4% year-on-year growth in exports for the first ten months of 2025, indicating a positive trend in overseas markets [6][8] - The industry is entering a rational growth phase, with expectations for continued recovery in sales throughout the year [6] Group 3: Forklift Sales and Market Dynamics - In October 2025, forklift sales reached 114,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, with domestic sales at 70,400 units (up 16.2%) and exports at 43,900 units (also up 16.2%) [11][12] - The overall forklift sales for the first ten months of 2025 totaled 1,220,700 units, reflecting a 14.2% year-on-year growth [11] - The growth in forklift sales is attributed to the recovery in manufacturing and logistics sectors, as well as improved competitiveness of domestic forklift manufacturers in international markets [12][15] Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - SANY Heavy Industry has completed its production base in South Africa, enhancing its global presence and capacity to produce 1,000 excavators annually for the African market [7] - Zoomlion has launched several innovative electric excavators, addressing industry pain points and aligning with global trends towards green technology [7][15] - Hangcha Group has made significant strides in the hydrogen forklift market, delivering a large order of hydrogen-powered forklifts, marking a step forward in its green product offerings [14][15] Group 5: AIOT Market and Company Performance - Zhongke Lanyun (688332) is a leading AIOT company based on the RISC-V architecture, with a projected revenue growth from 927 million yuan in 2020 to 1.819 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 18.36% [17][18] - The company maintains a gross margin of around 20% and a net profit margin that is among the highest in the industry, benefiting from efficient cost management and a diverse product portfolio [17][18] - The global TWS earphone market is expected to grow significantly, with Zhongke Lanyun capturing nearly 30% of the market share in TWS earphone chips, indicating strong competitive positioning [18][19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The forklift sales in October 2025 reached 114,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. Domestic sales were 70,400 units, up 16.2%, while overseas sales were 43,900 units, also up 16.2%. Cumulative sales from January to October 2025 totaled 1,220,700 units, reflecting a 14.2% year-on-year growth [4]. - The growth in forklift sales is attributed to the robust performance of domestic forklift companies in overseas markets and the increasing global demand for forklifts. The demand for forklifts is closely linked to the manufacturing and warehousing logistics sectors [4]. - Hangcha Group launched the X1 series humanoid robots, marking a significant step towards transforming from a traditional industrial vehicle manufacturer to a smart logistics solution provider [4]. - Hangcha completed a large order for hydrogen fuel forklifts, delivering 108 units, which signifies a deeper collaboration in the hydrogen-powered industrial vehicle sector and supports the low-carbon economy [4]. - JD Logistics announced plans to purchase 3 million robots, 1 million unmanned vehicles, and 100,000 drones over the next five years, indicating a shift towards large-scale application of intelligent logistics systems [4]. - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic forklift companies with strong brand recognition and R&D capabilities, such as Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Zhongli Co., as they are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in manufacturing and logistics demand [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in excavator exports, with a year-on-year increase of 12.9% in October 2025, contributing to a total of 93,790 units exported from January to October 2025, which is a 14.4% increase year-on-year [6]. - The domestic sales of excavators also showed a strong recovery, with a total of 98,345 units sold from January to October 2025, marking a 19.6% increase year-on-year [6]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing globalization efforts of leading companies like SANY Heavy Industry, which has established a production base in South Africa, and Zoomlion, which has launched innovative electric equipment to address industry challenges [6]. Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - In October 2025, a total of 18,096 excavators were sold, reflecting a 7.77% year-on-year growth, with domestic sales at 8,468 units (2.44% increase) and exports at 9,628 units (12.9% increase) [6]. - For the first ten months of 2025, excavator sales reached 192,135 units, a 17% increase year-on-year [6]. Loader Sales - In October 2025, 10,673 loaders were sold, showing a 27.7% year-on-year increase, with domestic sales at 5,372 units (33.2% increase) and exports at 5,301 units (22.6% increase) [6]. - Total loader sales from January to October 2025 amounted to 104,412 units, a 15.8% increase year-on-year [6]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a continued recovery in the domestic engineering machinery industry, driven by government policies promoting urban renewal and infrastructure projects [6]. - It suggests that companies with strong brand recognition, comprehensive product matrices, and efficient cost management, such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Shantui, and Hengli Hydraulic, should be closely monitored [6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic AIOT enterprise based on the RISC-V instruction set, maintaining a leading net profit margin in the industry. It has developed a range of high-performance CPU cores and various functional module IPs, including Bluetooth and audio chips, which are widely used in wireless interconnected terminals [4][14]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.36% from 2020 to 2024, driven by its competitive pricing strategy and expansion into emerging markets [4][44]. - The global TWS earphone market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 34.88% over the next eight years, benefiting the company as it captures a substantial market share [4][8]. - The company is diversifying its AIOT product offerings, including smart wearables and wireless microphones, and is well-positioned to capitalize on the industry's growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading integrated circuit design firm focused on wireless audio SoC chips, established in 2016 and listed on the STAR Market in 2022. It has developed a product architecture consisting of ten product lines, including Bluetooth earphone chips and AIoT chips [14][21]. Product Structure - The company has a diverse product structure with a focus on Bluetooth earphone chips (59% of revenue), Bluetooth speaker chips (21%), and smart wearable chips (7%) for 2024. The product range is expanding to meet various market demands [4][28]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to reach 20.02 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 3.17 billion yuan. The net profit margin has remained above 13%, indicating strong cost control and operational efficiency [6][44][49]. Market Opportunities - The global TWS earphone market is projected to reach approximately $51.4 billion in 2022, with significant growth expected in the coming years. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its strong market presence and product offerings [4][8]. Competitive Position - The company maintains a competitive edge through its proprietary RISC-V architecture, which allows for cost savings and flexibility in chip design. This positions the company favorably against competitors in the AIOT space [17][49]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 24.11 billion yuan in 2026 and 29.65 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a robust market demand for its products [6][8].

Group 1: Longxin Zhongke (688047) - The company is the only domestic CPU manufacturer that builds an independent information technology system based on its own instruction set, independent of x86 and ARM architectures, establishing a competitive edge in the open market [5][6] - Longxin's product lineup includes the Longxin 1 MCU, Longxin 2 SoC, and Longxin 3 CPU series, which have significantly improved cost-performance ratios, positioning the company for a new growth cycle [5][6] - The demand for domestic CPUs is driven by the acceleration of AI server and AIPC shipments, with a projected 24.3% growth in global AI server shipments in 2025, and a 34% penetration rate for AIPC in mainland China [6][7] - The company maintains control over its core IP and instruction set, allowing for x86/ARM instruction translation, which enhances its competitive position in the market [7][9] - Longxin's focus on the domestic market and gradual expansion into the open market is supported by its cost-performance advantages, with expectations of a 30-50% improvement in cost-performance for terminal chips and 50-100% for server chips over the next three years [9][10] Group 2: Shengde Xintai (300881) - The company operates a dual business model focusing on high-end pipes and automotive components, benefiting from both traditional energy and new energy sectors [12][13] - Revenue growth is notable, with increases of 64.1% in 2023 and 34.4% in 2024, and a reported revenue of 2.325 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [12][13] - The company has a strong market position in the small-diameter stainless steel pipe market for power station boilers, with a focus on high-tech products that yield higher profit margins compared to ordinary steel pipes [13][14] - The demand for high-end boiler pipes is expected to remain strong due to the anticipated addition of 47.44 million kilowatts of new thermal power capacity in 2024 [13][14] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.043 billion, 3.220 billion, and 3.411 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 240 million, 276 million, and 309 million yuan [14]

Group 1: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial index fell by 4.4%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.6 percentage points, with brokerage and insurance indices also declining by 4.9% and 3.0% respectively, indicating a significant drop in the securities index [5][6] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities announced a major asset restructuring plan, which involves a share swap merger, expected to enhance market competitiveness and resource allocation [6] - The merger is projected to result in total assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan, ranking the combined entity fourth in the industry, with a net profit of 9.5 billion yuan, elevating it to sixth place [6] Group 2: Insurance Sector - The China Actuarial Society released guidelines for the allocation of costs in life insurance products, aimed at promoting reasonable pricing and refined management [7] - The guidelines categorize costs into variable costs directly related to sales and fixed costs that need to be allocated, ensuring transparency and preventing manipulation between new and renewal business [7] Group 3: Electronic Industry - Nvidia reported a Q3 revenue of $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, driven by a 66% growth in data center revenue, with Q4 revenue expected to reach $65 billion, significantly exceeding market expectations [11][12] - Google launched Gemini 3, a multimodal understanding model that outperforms its predecessor in various AI benchmarks, showcasing advanced reasoning capabilities [13][14] - The electronic sector underperformed the market, with the electronic index declining by 5.89% compared to the CSI 300's 3.77% drop, indicating a challenging market environment [14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, the focus should be on mergers and acquisitions, wealth management transformation, and innovative licensing, with a recommendation to invest in large, financially robust brokerages [8] - In the insurance sector, attention should be given to large comprehensive insurance companies that possess competitive advantages, especially under the new regulatory framework [8] - In the electronic industry, investors are advised to consider companies benefiting from strong domestic and international demand in AIOT, as well as those involved in semiconductor equipment and materials [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The non-bank financial index fell by 4.4% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.6 percentage points, with both brokerage and insurance indices showing a synchronized decline of 4.9% and 3.0% respectively [4][8] - The merger of CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities is expected to enhance market competitiveness and resource optimization, with the combined entity projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in total assets by Q3 2025, ranking fourth in the industry [4] - The introduction of guidelines for expense allocation in life insurance products aims to promote reasonable pricing and refined management, enhancing the sustainability of insurance companies and protecting consumer rights [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 5.1%, and the CSI 300 dropped by 3.8% last week [8] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds was 23,309 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% from the previous week [16] Brokerage Sector - The merger of CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities is a significant development, with expectations of further consolidation within the Huijin system to reduce competition and optimize resources [4] - The internationalization of brokerages is deepening, as evidenced by Guotai Junan's acquisition of an Indonesian securities firm [4] Insurance Sector - The release of the "Expense Allocation Guidelines" by the Actuarial Society aims to standardize pricing in life insurance products, enhancing transparency and fairness in the industry [4] - The guidelines are expected to improve the management of expenses and support the sustainable development of insurance companies [4] Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, it is suggested to focus on opportunities related to mergers and acquisitions, wealth management transformation, and innovative licensing [4] - For insurance companies, attention is drawn to large comprehensive insurers with competitive advantages under the new regulatory framework [4]