[证券分析师： Table_Authors] 商俭 S0630525060002 shangjian@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251222 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月22日 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 [table_summary] ➢ 1.商品走势分化，中美的高科技投资持续增长——资产配置周报（2025/12/15-2025/12/19） ➢ 2.美国11月通胀意外放缓，但参考性降低——海外观察：美国2025年11月CPI数据 ➢ 3.杰克科技（603337）：启航新程，科技引领，与客户共谋全球化新篇——公司简评报告 ➢ 1.日本央行宣布加息25个基点 ➢ 2.三部门发布《互联网平台价格行为规则》 ➢ 3.李强主持召开国务院常务会议，对贯彻落实中央经济工作会议决策部署作出安排 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 | 1. 重点推荐 | | | 3 | | - ...

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the divergence in commodity trends and the continuous growth of high-tech investments in China and the US, with significant performance variations in global stock markets and commodities [8][11]. Global Asset Review - As of December 19, global stock markets showed mixed results, with European markets performing better; major commodities like gold, copper, and aluminum saw price increases, while oil prices declined [11][12]. - The report notes that the UK FTSE 100 outperformed other indices, while the Hang Seng Tech Index and Nikkei 225 faced pressure [11]. - The report indicates that gold prices rose slightly due to expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, while oil prices fell due to concerns over oversupply [12]. Domestic Equity Market Review - In the domestic equity market, financials outperformed other sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 17,410 billion yuan, down from 19,359 billion yuan [18]. - Among the 31 sectors tracked, 19 sectors saw gains, with retail trade (+6.66%), non-bank financials (+2.90%), and beauty care (+2.87%) leading the way, while electronics (-3.28%) and power equipment (-3.12%) lagged [18][19]. Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Tracking - The report notes a continued loose monetary environment, with the central bank conducting reverse repos to maintain liquidity, while the bond market is expected to remain stable amid weak recovery signals [20][22]. - The US bond market showed a cautious decline in yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.16%, reflecting mixed signals from employment and inflation data [26][28]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the renminbi, supported by domestic economic resilience and favorable external conditions, with the currency appreciating against the US dollar [30][31]. Commodity Tracking - The report tracks energy commodities, noting that WTI crude oil prices fluctuated around $56.52 per barrel, with US crude oil production increasing year-on-year [32]. - It also highlights the significant drop in liquefied natural gas prices in China, attributed to high inventory levels and weak demand [36].

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. November CPI year-on-year increased by 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1% and down from 3.0% in September[2] - Core CPI year-on-year rose by 2.6%, below the expected 3.0% and unchanged from September[2] - The unexpected slowdown in CPI was primarily driven by significant declines in household food and core services prices[2] Key Influences on CPI - Food prices decreased from 3.1% in September to 2.6% in November, with household food prices dropping from 2.7% to 1.9%[2] - Energy prices increased from 2.8% in September to 4.2% in November, influenced by low base effects and winter demand[2] - Core goods prices showed resilience, with clothing prices rising from -0.1% to 0.2% and new car prices slightly declining from 0.8% to 0.6%[2] Housing Market Insights - Housing prices fell sharply to 3.0% in November from 3.6% in September, contradicting other indicators of a recovering housing market[2] - Rent and owners' equivalent rent both decreased by 0.4 percentage points from September, indicating a significant cooling in the housing market[2] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock markets rose, while gold initially surged before declining, and the dollar index experienced volatility[2] - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January 2026 is estimated at 27.7%[4] - The report suggests that the weak reference nature of the November inflation data may lead to a higher likelihood of the Fed adopting a wait-and-see approach rather than cutting rates[2]

公 司 简 评 机 械 设 备 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：重大事项 [杰克科技 Table_NewTitle]（603337）：启航新程，科技引 领，与客户共谋全球化新篇 ——公司简评报告 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月19日 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn | [数据日期 Table_cominfo] | 2025/12/18 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 39.68 | | 总股本(万股) | 47,643 | | 流通A股/B股(万股) | 47,373/0 | | 资产负债率(%) | 37.05% | | 市净率(倍) | 3.76 | | 净资产收益率(加权) | 14.38% | | 12个月内最高/最低价 | 57.33/24.40 | [Table_QuotePic] -33% -12% 10% 32% 54% 76% 98% 120% 24-12 25-03 25-06 25-09 杰克科技 沪深300 [table_main] 投资 ...

Group 1: Key Recommendations - Focus on the commercialization progress of embodied intelligent robots, anticipating the establishment of industry standards and ecosystem co-construction [5][7] - Yushutech recently launched a humanoid robot "App Store," facilitating model sharing and establishing a product ecosystem [5] - UBTECH has secured new orders exceeding 50 million yuan for its autonomous industrial humanoid robot Walker S2, which will be delivered within the year [6] Group 2: Industry Tracking - The industry is accelerating the construction of standards and evaluation systems to promote training and pilot platform development, guiding orderly industrial development [7][8] - The "Humanoid Robot Intelligence Grading" group standard has been established, categorizing humanoid robots into five levels (L1-L5) to clarify technical development directions [7] - The Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center is building a public service platform for embodied intelligent robots, providing comprehensive services from technology development to industrial application [8] Group 3: U.S. Employment Market Analysis - The U.S. non-farm employment data for November 2025 showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, but the unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021 [11][12] - The increase in the unemployment rate is primarily attributed to a surge in re-employment, with 293,000 re-employed individuals in October and November, contributing 129% to the new unemployment figures [12][16] - The labor market is exhibiting signs of "tight balance" vulnerability, with an increase in both immigrant and domestic labor supply, while demand remains weak [12][16] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank maintained its key interest rates, with the deposit facility rate at 2% and the main refinancing rate at 2.15% [19] - The U.S. CPI for November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1% [19] - The People's Bank of China resumed 14-day reverse repurchase operations, injecting liquidity into the market [19]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - Focus on the commercialization progress of embodied intelligent robots, anticipating the establishment of industry standards and ecosystem co-construction [5] - Yushu Technology recently launched a humanoid robot "App Store," facilitating model training and sharing, which is expected to lay the foundation for product ecosystem development [5] - UBTECH has signed a humanoid robot sales contract worth over 50 million yuan, primarily involving the Walker S2 robot, which will be delivered within the year [6] - ZhiYuan Robotics has achieved mass production of its 5000th general-purpose embodied robot, indicating a significant scale-up in production capabilities [6][7] Group 2: Industry Tracking - The establishment of industry standards and evaluation systems is accelerating, which is expected to guide the orderly development of the industry [7] - The "Humanoid Robot Intelligence Grading" standard has been developed, categorizing humanoid robots into five levels (L1-L5), aiding companies in clarifying technological development directions [7][8] - The Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center is building a public service platform for embodied intelligent robots, providing comprehensive services from technology development to industrial application [8] Group 3: U.S. Employment Market Observations - The U.S. non-farm employment data for November 2025 showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, but the unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021 [11][12] - The increase in the unemployment rate is primarily attributed to a surge in re-employment, with 293,000 re-employed individuals in October and November, contributing significantly to the unemployment figures [12][16] - The labor market is exhibiting signs of "tight balance" vulnerability, with an increase in both immigrant and domestic labor supply, while demand remains weak [12][16] Group 4: Financial News - From January to November 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% [19] - The general public budget expenditure for the same period was 248,538 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more in the next six months [29]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the commercialization progress of embodied intelligent robots and the expectation for the standardization system to further improve, promoting the development of the robotics industry [3][4]. - Key developments include the launch of a humanoid robot "App Store" by Yushu Technology, which facilitates model sharing and training, and the signing of a sales contract by UBTECH for humanoid robots worth over 50 million yuan [4][9]. - The establishment of the "Humanoid Robot Intelligence Grading Standard" aims to classify humanoid robots into five levels, providing a framework for technology development and product selection [12][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Robotics Industry Dynamics - Yushu Technology launched a humanoid robot "App Store" to enhance model sharing and ecosystem development [4][9]. - UBTECH signed a contract for the sale of humanoid robots with a total value exceeding 50 million yuan, focusing on the Walker S2 model [4][9]. - ZhiYuan Robotics achieved the mass production of its 5000th general-purpose humanoid robot, indicating a significant scale-up in production capabilities [4][10]. - The report highlights the need for industry standards to address issues like product homogeneity and data sharing challenges [11]. - The establishment of a public service platform for embodied intelligence aims to support technology development and resource sharing [13]. 2. Refrigeration Equipment Industry Tracking - Daikin's acquisition of Chilldyne marks a strategic move into the liquid cooling sector for data centers, enhancing its technological capabilities [14]. - Vertiv's acquisition of PurgeRite for approximately 1 billion USD reflects the industry's trend towards integrating product and service offerings in liquid cooling solutions [15]. - The demand for efficient refrigeration equipment is expected to rise due to the growth of data centers, with a projected 19% CAGR in global data center capacity from 2023 to 2030 [16][18]. 3. Market Review - The report notes that the mechanical equipment sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 1.38%, ranking 4th among 31 sectors [23].

Employment Data Summary - In November 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, surpassing the expected 50,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%, the highest level since October 2021[2] - The U6 unemployment rate jumped from 8.0% to 8.7%, marking the highest level since August 2021[2] Labor Market Dynamics - The total number of re-employed individuals surged by 293,000 over October and November, contributing 129% to the increase in unemployment[2] - Immigration labor supply turned positive, with a net increase of 132,000 over the two months, while domestic labor supply also rose by 118,000[3] - Despite the increase in labor supply, corporate hiring decreased, with a drop of 218,000 in October[3] Sector Performance - The production sector saw a positive employment change in November, adding 19,000 jobs, primarily driven by construction, which contributed 28,000 jobs[2] - The service sector added 50,000 jobs in November, down from 61,000 in October, largely due to a decline in transportation jobs[2] - Government employment remained stable in November after significant cuts in October due to a government shutdown[2] Wage Trends - Hourly wage growth slowed in November, with private sector wages increasing by only 0.1% month-over-month, down from 0.4% in October[2] - The construction sector maintained a steady wage growth rate of 0.2%, indicating a recovery trend[2] Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, U.S. stock markets opened lower but showed slight recovery, while bond yields and the dollar experienced minor declines[3] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in January 2026 rose to 25.5%, although the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current rates due to stable economic growth[3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the growth opportunities in AI infrastructure-related equipment, projecting a significant increase in global investment in generative AI, expected to rise from $315.9 billion in 2024 to $1,261.9 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.9% [5][6] - North American internet giants are significantly increasing capital expenditures, with a total of $258.56 billion in 2024, marking a 58.05% year-on-year increase, focusing on AI infrastructure [6] - The demand for PCB (Printed Circuit Board) is expected to rise due to the growth in computing power, with manufacturers expanding production capacity and transitioning to high-end production [6] Group 2 - Domestic demand remains under pressure, with November retail sales growth at 1.3%, down from 2.9% in the previous month, and fixed asset investment showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% [8][10] - The report highlights the need for policy measures to stabilize investment and support the real estate market, with a focus on increasing residents' income and expanding quality consumption supply [10][12] - The manufacturing investment decline has narrowed to 4.5% year-on-year, with certain sectors like transportation equipment and automobiles showing strong growth [14] Group 3 - Short-term loans and bond financing for enterprises are performing well, with a notable increase in short-term loans by 1,000 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting strong liquidity support for small and medium-sized enterprises [18][21] - The report indicates that the overall credit growth is expected to focus on structural optimization, with a shift towards supporting technology innovation and consumer infrastructure [19][21] - The monetary policy is anticipated to remain stable, with potential for further easing if necessary, while the banking sector is expected to maintain asset quality stability [20][21]

Group 1: Economic Overview - Domestic demand remains under pressure, with a focus on the introduction of proactive incremental policies following the November economic data release, which showed a year-on-year increase in retail sales of only 1.3% and a cumulative decline in fixed asset investment of 2.6% [5][6][9] - Industrial production in November was relatively stable, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44%, slightly above the five-year average of 0.38%, while the year-on-year growth rate for industrial value added was 4.8% [6][7] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand, aiming to stabilize investment and the real estate market while increasing residents' income and expanding quality consumption supply [6][9] Group 2: Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector showed good performance in short-term loans and bond financing, with social financing scale stock growing by 8.5% year-on-year, and RMB loans increasing by 6.3% [12][13] - Short-term loans for enterprises increased by 1,000 billion yuan, reflecting strong liquidity support for small and medium-sized enterprises, while long-term loans showed a decline due to weak investment demand [13][15] - The monetary policy is expected to remain stable, with potential for further easing if economic conditions do not improve, although short-term interest rate cuts are considered unlikely [15][16] Group 3: Electronics Industry Developments - The U.S. approved the sale of Nvidia's H200 chips to China, which may accelerate AI model training in China but could also pressure domestic AI chip manufacturers [17][18] - Broadcom reported a significant increase in AI semiconductor sales, with a 74% year-on-year growth, indicating strong demand in the electronics sector [20][21] - The electronics industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with price increases in storage chips and a focus on structural opportunities in AI computing and semiconductor equipment [22][21]