Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, compared to 50.2% in the previous month[2] - The decline in PMI is attributed to the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing PMIs remain above the threshold at 52.0% and 50.1% respectively, despite slight declines[2] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3%, indicating a significant decrease of 2.1 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, reflecting seasonal impacts and a high base from the previous month[2] Group 3: Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, while the factory price index reached 50.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points[2] - This marks the first time in 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point, suggesting a potential narrowing of PPI declines[2] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The production index decreased to 50.6%, down by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, a drop of 1.6 percentage points[2] - New export orders also declined to 47.8%, indicating a slowdown in external demand[2] Group 5: Policy and Economic Outlook - The first batch of "two new" funds has been allocated, and a coordinated fiscal and financial policy to boost domestic demand has been deployed[2] - Continued monitoring of investment trends, consumer performance during the Spring Festival, and policy developments during the Two Sessions is advised[2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of new guidelines by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) regarding the performance comparison benchmarks for publicly offered securities investment funds, effective from March 1, 2026. This aims to standardize the selection and use of performance benchmarks, enhancing internal controls and management mechanisms for fund managers [4]. - The new regulations emphasize the importance of a comprehensive internal control system that links compensation to long-term excess returns, thereby encouraging fund managers to focus on benchmark alignment rather than short-term rankings [4]. - The report suggests that the future of capital market development will be driven by comprehensive reforms in investment and financing, with a focus on opportunities in mergers and acquisitions, wealth management transformation, innovative licensing, and return on equity (ROE) enhancement [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report notes a slight decrease in the benchmark interest rate to 1.89%, reflecting a strong sales performance in the insurance sector [3]. - The establishment of a performance benchmark element library, which includes 82 highly representative indices, is expected to support the new regulations [4]. - The report emphasizes the need for transparency in the disclosure and modification of benchmarks, ensuring that investors are well-informed about product changes [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of publicly offered securities investment funds, effective from March 1, 2026. This aims to standardize the selection and use of performance benchmarks, enhancing internal controls and management mechanisms for fund managers [4]. - The new regulations emphasize the importance of performance benchmarks as core reference standards for investment style representation, performance measurement, and investment behavior constraints. This is expected to protect investors' rational decisions based on product positioning [4]. - A comprehensive internal control system is mandated, linking compensation to long-term excess returns. This includes monitoring fund performance against benchmarks and ensuring accountability at various management levels [4]. - The new rules also standardize disclosure and changes related to benchmarks, enhancing transparency and allowing investors to make informed decisions [4]. - The report suggests that under strict regulatory oversight, comprehensive reforms in investment and financing will drive long-term development in the capital market. It recommends focusing on opportunities in mergers and acquisitions, wealth management transformation, innovative licensing, and ROE improvement, particularly in large, financially robust brokerage firms [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report highlights the recent drop in the benchmark interest rate to 1.89%, indicating a hot sales period for the insurance sector [3]. - The performance comparison benchmarks for public funds have officially been established, which is expected to enhance the investment environment [3]. Market Trends - The non-bank financial sector has shown a significant fluctuation in the industry index, with a notable increase of 26% from February to November 2025 [2]. Regulatory Changes - The CSRC's new guidelines aim to address previous issues where benchmarks were ineffective, ensuring that fund managers adhere to investment disciplines and protect investor interests [4].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts as of January 2026, maintaining the benchmark rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, which aligns with market expectations [5][6] - The FOMC statement reflects a more optimistic outlook on the economy and employment, indicating that the threshold for future rate cuts has increased based on economic data [6][7] - The internal voting threshold for rate cuts has slightly decreased due to the rotation of regional Fed presidents, with a more neutral to dovish stance compared to the previous year [8] Group 2 - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and gold prices surged, breaking through $5,400 per ounce and reaching a new historical high of over $5,500 per ounce, indicating a shift in gold pricing from interest rates to credit risk [6][9] - The market is seeing a significant influx of safe-haven funds into gold, driven by concerns over U.S. dollar assets and the recent comments from former President Trump regarding currency manipulation [9][10] Group 3 - The report highlights the recent decline of the U.S. dollar, which fell over 1.2% to a low of 95.55, the lowest since February 2022, following Trump's comments favoring a weaker dollar to boost the economy [11][12] - Concerns about a potential "Plaza Accord 2.0" are discussed, but the report suggests that achieving such an agreement would be challenging due to the lack of support from other Western nations and the complexities of current economic conditions [13][14] Group 4 - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing slight gains while the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices have declined, indicating a divergence in market trends [25][26] - The report notes that the liquor sector has seen significant investment, with a notable increase of 9.68%, while other sectors like semiconductor and electronic components have faced declines [27][29]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts as expected, maintaining the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75%[2] - The FOMC statement shifted to a more optimistic outlook on economic and employment prospects, raising the threshold for rate cuts based on data dependency[2] - The unemployment rate is showing signs of stabilization, indicating a healthier economic outlook[2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Asset Pricing - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the stock market initially opened higher before retreating[2] - Gold prices surged, breaking through $5,400 per ounce and reaching a new historical high of over $5,500 per ounce, indicating a shift in pricing logic from interest rates to credit[2] - The probability of no rate cuts in March 2026 is at 86.5%, according to CME data[4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership and Voting Dynamics - The new regional Fed presidents for 2026 exhibit a more neutral to dovish stance compared to the previous year's hawkish leadership, slightly lowering the internal voting threshold for rate cuts[2] - The Philadelphia Fed president is more focused on employment risks, while the Minneapolis, Dallas, and Cleveland Fed presidents are more concerned with inflation risks[2] Group 4: Risk Considerations - There is a risk that tariffs may have a greater-than-expected impact on inflation, and the U.S. job market may warm up quickly[2]

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年01月29日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20260129 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 dytian@longone.com.cn [table_summary] ➢ 1.预定利率研究值环比微降1bp至1.89%，"开门红"销售火热——保险业态观察（十三） ➢ 2.美元大跌会是广场协议2.0吗？——海外观察：美国经济热点简评 ➢ 3.其他收益推动利润增速回升——国内观察：2025年12月工业企业利润数据 ➢ 1.美联储如期暂停降息 ➢ 2.上海黄金交易所调整白银延期合约保证金水平和涨跌停板 ➢ 3.财联社：多家房企表示目前已不被监管部门要求每月上报 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight decrease in the preset interest rate research value for ordinary life insurance products, now at 1.89%, with limited downward adjustment potential for the year [4]. - The "New Year Sales" for insurance products are robust, driven by deposit migration and improved competitiveness of dividend insurance, leading to significant growth in new premium income for leading insurance companies [4]. - Long-term interest rates are stabilizing, enhancing the investment yield elasticity for insurance companies, with increased allocations towards equity investments in high-dividend financial stocks [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has decreased by 1 basis point to 1.89%, with a gradual decline observed since Q4 2024 [4][5]. - The "New Year Sales" period shows strong performance, with leading insurance firms experiencing substantial growth in new premium income, particularly in dividend insurance [4]. - The stability of long-term interest rates around 1.8% is expected to support a steady increase in net investment returns for insurance companies [4]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in market trading sentiment, which is expected to create investment opportunities within the non-bank financial sector [3]. - The insurance sector is witnessing a shift towards dividend insurance products, which are becoming the main sales drivers, reflecting a preference for products that offer both guaranteed and variable returns [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued attention to the transformation of life insurance liabilities and the potential for demand release as consumer awareness of insurance products increases [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of large listed insurance companies with strong competitive advantages, particularly in the context of the current low valuation environment [4].

[table_main] 投资要点 [Table_Reportdate] 2026年01月28日 [美元大跌会是广场协议 Table_NewTitle] 2.0吗？ ——海外观察：美国经济热点简评 第一，美日联合干预日元本质上并不是为了令美元贬值，而是对美债收益率上行风险的防 范。1月20日，美国财长贝森特明确表示"日本债券收益率的上行或对美债有外溢风险， 并已对日本进行口头沟通。"那么日债收益率是如何外溢至美债的？我们做一个简单传导 链条：日债收益率上行（价格下跌）——日本机构补仓——被动抛售美债购买日债——美 债收益率上行。不仅如此，日元大幅贬值对美债依然有外溢风险：日元下跌——日本机构 汇率干预——抛售美债获得美元（外汇市场卖出美元买入日元）——美债收益率上行。由 此，美日联合干预日元不是寻求弱势美元，而是不让美债被日本同盟国"背刺"。 第二，特朗普主动寻求"弱势美元"或难获得西方支持。1985年广场协议的汇率干预涉及 英法德其他三个国家。如果只是依靠日元的单边升值很难达到美元普跌的条件。但2026年 美国对格陵兰岛以及丹麦主权的干预和威胁，美国和欧洲之间已经撕开一道不可弥合的地 缘裂缝。美元指数主要权 ...

Group 1: Non-Bank Financial Industry - The public fund performance benchmark has officially been implemented, with the preset interest rate research value decreasing by 1 basis point week-on-week [6][7] - The non-bank index fell by 1.5%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.9 percentage points, with both brokerage and insurance indices showing a synchronized decline of -0.6% and -4% respectively [6][7] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds decreased by 15.8% week-on-week to 34,429 billion yuan, while the margin financing balance slightly decreased by 0.3% to 2.72 trillion yuan [6] Group 2: TuoJing Technology (688072) - TuoJing Technology is a leading domestic semiconductor thin film deposition equipment company, with a significant revenue increase from 440 million yuan in 2020 to 4.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 75% [11][12] - The company has established a dual-platform driven structure focusing on thin film deposition and advanced bonding equipment, with a strong market demand evidenced by an order backlog of approximately 9.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 46% [11][12] - The global thin film deposition equipment market is projected to reach approximately 24.4 billion USD by 2025, with the domestic market estimated at around 10.2 billion USD, indicating substantial room for domestic substitution [12][13] Group 3: Food and Beverage Industry - The average price of raw milk has remained low, with a current price of 3.03 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01 yuan week-on-week, while the industry is approaching a supply-demand turning point [16][17] - The restaurant sector is showing signs of recovery, with December 2025 retail sales of social consumer goods reaching 45,136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and restaurant income growing by 2.2% year-on-year [16][17] - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.41%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.79 percentage points, with snack foods performing well, increasing by 6.12% [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the non-bank financial sector, indicating that the sector is expected to outperform the broader market index (CSI 300) by at least 10% over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent decline in the non-bank financial index, which fell by 1.5%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.9 percentage points. The brokerage and insurance indices also experienced declines of 0.6% and 4%, respectively, with the insurance index showing a significant drop [4]. - The implementation of the new public fund performance benchmark guidelines is expected to stabilize product styles and enhance internal management mechanisms within the industry. This is anticipated to catalyze performance disclosures and improve market sentiment [4]. - The insurance sector is experiencing a slight decrease in the preset interest rate, now at 1.89%, but this is not expected to reach the adjustment threshold. The report suggests that the long-term interest rate will remain stable, enhancing product design sustainability [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the average daily trading volume for stock funds was 34,429 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.8% from the previous week. The margin financing balance slightly decreased by 0.3% to 2.72 trillion yuan, while the stock pledge market value increased by 3% to 3.17 trillion yuan [4][16]. Brokerage Insights - The new public fund performance benchmark guidelines, effective from March 1, are expected to stabilize fund management practices and enhance long-term performance assessments. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring deviations from benchmarks to protect investor interests [4]. - Recent earnings forecasts from listed brokerages indicate a significant improvement in performance driven by market elasticity, suggesting potential positive catalysts for the sector [4]. Insurance Insights - The report indicates that the insurance sector is seeing a trend of increasing confidence as major insurers are launching products with higher preset interest rates to attract funds from the banking sector. This is expected to boost sales during the "opening season" [4]. - The report also highlights that the active trading in the A-share market, driven by favorable policies and economic recovery expectations, is enhancing market sentiment towards the insurance sector [4]. Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, the report suggests focusing on opportunities related to mergers and acquisitions, wealth management transformation, and enhancing return on equity (ROE). It recommends investing in large brokerages with strong capital and stable operations [4]. - In the insurance sector, the report advises monitoring large comprehensive insurers with competitive advantages, especially in the context of high-quality development under stringent regulatory frameworks [4].