Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The carbon fiber industry is experiencing structural contradictions leading to accelerated consolidation. Global carbon fiber production capacity is expected to reach 309,000 tons in 2024, with a growth rate of 9.23% in 2025, but the overall capacity utilization rate is below 70% [7]. - The demand for carbon fiber is anticipated to rebound in 2024, driven by sectors such as domestic large aircraft and low-altitude economy, with wind energy and aerospace markets showing significant growth [7]. - Domestic carbon fiber companies are focusing on three main application areas: aerospace and military, high-performance industrial applications, and low-cost industrial applications, with key players like Guangwei Composites and Zhongfu Shenying making notable advancements [7][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The carbon fiber market is characterized by increasing competition and a shift in regional development, with the U.S. expected to capture 40% of the global wind energy carbon fiber market [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The exit of major players like Dow and the closure of facilities by companies such as SGL Carbon indicate a trend towards industry consolidation [7]. - The demand for carbon fiber in wind energy is projected to grow by 120% in 2024, while aerospace and military applications are expected to see a 20% increase [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with scale and technological advantages, such as Guangwei Composites, Zhongfu Shenying, Zhongjian Technology, and Jilin Chemical Fiber [8].

策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月08日 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。6月6日当周，全球股市整体收涨，港股、美股领涨；主要商品期货中 原油、黄金、铜、铝收涨；美元指数小幅下跌，非美货币中人民币、欧元升值，日元贬值。 1）权益方面：创业板指数>恒生科技指数>纳指>恒生指数>标普500>科创50>深证成指> 德国DAX30>道指>上证指数>沪深300指数>英国富时100>法国CAC40>日经225。2）原 油受贸易关系缓和，OPEC+温和增产等影响，当周大幅反弹；中国央行连续7个月增持黄 金，美联储降息预期扰 ...

[table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：当地时间6月6日，美国劳工局公布2025年5月美国非农就业数据。美国5月季调后非 农就业人口新增13.9万人，预期12.6万人，前值14.7万人。5月失业率维持在4.2%不变。 总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月08日 宏 观 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [就业表面虽有韧性，背后暗涌 Table_NewTitle] 不容忽视 ——海外观察：美国2025年5月非农数据 liusj@longone.com.cn ➢ 核心观点：美国5月非农新增就业数据保持温和降温的态势，虽略高于预期，但需要注意 的是 "小非农"ADP的意外回落已经降低了市场对于当月NFP的预期。分项来看，服务 行业依然是主要就业贡献部门，并且呈现边际增速上升的态势；生产部门就业市场降温明 显，或是由于零售部门持续低迷使得生产部门放缓了产出。值得注意的是，除了零售和运 输，几乎所有部门5月时薪增速均呈现出 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月08日 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。6月6日当周，全球股市整体收涨，港股、美股领涨；主要商品期货中 原油、黄金、铜、铝收涨；美元指数小幅下跌，非美货币中人民币、欧元升值，日元贬值。 1）权益方面：创业板指数>恒生科技指数>纳指>恒生指数>标普500>科创50>深证成指> 德国DAX30>道指>上证指数>沪深300指数>英国富时100>法国CAC40>日经225。2）原 油受贸易关系缓和，OPEC+温和增产等影响，当周大幅反弹；中国央行连续7个月增持黄 金，美联储降息预期扰 ...

Employment Data Summary - In May 2025, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, slightly above the expected 126,000, but down from the previous month's revised figure of 147,000[1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% to 62.4%[2] - The ADP report indicated a surprising drop, which lowered market expectations for the NFP figures[2] Sector Performance - The service sector contributed significantly with 145,000 new jobs, particularly in education and healthcare (87,000) and leisure and hospitality (48,000)[2] - The manufacturing sector saw a decline, with a loss of 5,000 jobs, attributed to a slowdown in retail demand impacting production[2] - Government employment decreased slightly by 1,000 jobs, primarily due to federal layoffs, although local government jobs increased[2] Wage Growth and Market Implications - Average hourly earnings showed an upward trend across most sectors, excluding retail and transportation, indicating persistent wage growth[2] - The data suggests that the Federal Reserve may not rush to cut interest rates due to the sticky wage levels, despite the overall cooling in the job market[2] - Following the report, market risk appetite increased, leading to higher U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar[2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Interest rates and exchange rates: Despite the unexpected month - on - month decline in US PPI data in April and the relatively high US Treasury yields in May, economic data on June 4 showed signs of slowdown in the US job market and service industry, increasing the uncertainty of interest rate cuts. China's fiscal policy has been significantly front - loaded, and banks have entered a "low - interest - rate era". The implementation of the policy of significantly reducing tariffs between China and the US has short - term boosted domestic risk appetite and increased the demand for RMB financial asset allocation [81]. - Commodities: In the short term, commodities are bearish under the impact of the trade war. However, considering the improvement in the cost side, China's petrochemical industry chain is complete and still has a cost - competitive advantage [81]. - Equities: Bullish on China's consumption recovery (towards cost - effectiveness) and self - controllable industrial chains [81]. - Trade and oil demand: It is expected that after the oil price reaches the bottom in the off - season of the second quarter, it is expected to recover, which is beneficial to targets with upstream resources, such as PetroChina and CNOOC [81]. - Offshore oil and gas exploration: It is expected that the offshore oilfield service industry will maintain stable capital expenditure, and China will continue to increase oil and gas reserves and production. Bullish on listed oilfield service companies with low valuations, large overseas market potential, and internationally advanced technology, such as Offshore Oil Engineering, China Oilfield Services, and Bohai Machinery Equipment [81]. - Refining and chemical integration: Bullish on targets with strong hydrocracking capabilities and integrated refining - PX - PTA industrial chains, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Tongkun Group [81]. - Cost - competitive advantage: The negative impact of ethane imports is expected to be repaired, which is beneficial to previously oversold domestic targets, such as Satellite Chemical and Wanhua Chemical, as well as natural - gas - related targets, such as ENN Energy and Jiufeng Energy [81]. Summary by Directory 1. Oil Price Review and Outlook - **Price judgment**: In May 2025, Brent crude oil was weakly traded, closing at around $63.9 per barrel at the end of the month. OPEC+ countries will increase production by an additional 411,000 barrels per day in June and July. The Fed continued to pause interest rate cuts in June 2025 as expected. The oil price has entered a short - term downward channel, and Brent crude oil may touch a low of $55 per barrel in the second quarter. In the long term, oil prices are greatly affected by the demand side. With the Fed resuming interest rate cuts later, the risk of oil price correction increases. It is expected that Brent crude oil will fluctuate between $55 - $80 per barrel in 2025 [3]. - **Supply and demand factors**: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and July, and the production cut of 3.6 million barrels per day will be maintained until the end of 2026. US refinery processing volume improved in May compared with the previous month but was lower than the same period last year. China's crude oil consumption was sluggish, but imports improved. In April 2025, China's industrial crude oil processing decreased by 1.3% year - on - year, and imports increased by 7.5% year - on - year [3]. - **Other factors**: As of May 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was about 4.41%. Economic data on June 4 showed signs of slowdown in the US job market and service industry, and the market increased bets on interest rate cuts. The US dollar was relatively weak in May. In April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. Geopolitical situations in the Middle East are expected to continue to deteriorate, and global trade frictions may escalate. The Yellowtail - grade crude oil in Guyana is expected to be launched in the third quarter [3]. 2. Commodities, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates - **Interest rates**: The Fed has gone through 13 complete interest - rate hike cycles since 1954. As of May 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was about 4.41%. The inversion of the yield curve between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries, which lasted from early July 2022 to the end of August 2024, has basically ended, but there was an inversion with 3 - month US Treasuries as of June 4, indicating a low market expectation of interest rate cuts [32][37]. - **Exchange rates**: In May, the US dollar index was volatile and remained weak, closing at 99.44, up 0.23% from the end of the previous month and down 5.07% from the same period last year. The offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar, closing at 7.20, up 1.01% from the end of the previous month and up 0.79% from the same period last year [38]. - **Inflation**: In April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The US PPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year and unexpectedly decreased month - on - month. The Fed is still very cautious about inflation risks [44]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain - **Profit margins**: In May, the international crude oil price declined, driving down the prices of industrial chain products and weakening the spreads. The spread of ethylene cracking from naphtha was $151 per ton, down $12 per ton month - on - month. The prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol increased month - on - month, and the average price of polyester filament increased month - on - month. The profit of the entire PX - PTA - polyester filament industrial chain was about $28 per ton, a significant month - on - month improvement [54]. - **Supply and demand**: As of the end of May, the average inventory of polyester filament sample enterprises was around 20 days, basically the same as at the end of the previous month. In May, the total supply of polyester filament was 3.25 million tons, up 0.7% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. The average monthly capacity utilization rate was 90.6%, down 3.5 percentage points month - on - month and up 2.8 percentage points from the same period last year [64]. - **Exports**: In April 2025, China's polyester filament exports were 349,800 tons, up 5.59% from the previous month. From January to April 2025, the cumulative exports were 1.3405 million tons, up 6.99% from the same period last year. From January to April 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were generally stable, with textile exports continuing to grow and clothing exports still under pressure [69]. 4. Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - **Overall view**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, and crude oil may face pressure. - **Investment recommendations**: Bullish on companies with upstream resources, offshore oilfield service companies, refining and chemical integration companies, and companies with cost - competitive advantages [81].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月06日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250606 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.若有效上破3418点压力位，指数或有进一步盘升动能——技术分析上证指数简评 ➢ 2.端午旅游增速放缓——端午消费数据点评 ➢ 1.国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话 ➢ 2.央行发布1万亿买断式逆回购操作 ➢ 3.税务总局表示前四月民营经济活力持续提升 ➢ 4.中国人民银行副行长陶玲：构建与科技创新相适应的科技金融体制，加强银行信贷服务 能力 ➢ ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月05日 [table_stockTrend] -28% -16% -5% 7% 19% 31% 42% 24-06 24-09 24-12 25-03 25-06 申万行业指数:社会服务(0746) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.旅游市场火热，出行半径扩大—— 五一消费数据点评 [Table_NewTitle 端午旅游]增速放缓 ——端午消费数据点评 [table_main] 投资要点： [table_invest] 标配 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn 行业简评 一、评级说明 | | 评级 | 说明 | | --- | --- | --- | | 市场指数评级 | 看多 | 未来 6 个月内沪深 300 指数上升幅度达到或超过 20% | | | 看平 | 未来 6 个月内沪深 300 指数波动幅度在-20%—20%之间 | | | 看空 | 未来 6 个月内沪深 300 指数下跌幅度达到或超过 20% | | 行业指数评级 | 超配 | ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月05日 [若有效上破 Table_NewTitle] 3418点压力位，指数或有进 一步盘升动能 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [相关研究 Table_Report] 1.《波浪里前行 上证指数目前或处 于黎明的曙光中》 2.《上证指数或酝酿反弹动能——技 术分析上证指数系列》 3.《上证指数短线或有反弹需求—— 技术分析上证指数简评》 4.《上证指数或有进一步震荡盘升动 能——技术分析上证指数简评》 5.《上证指数短线技术条件明显修 复，回落空间小上涨空间大——技术 分析上证指数简评》 6.《证券板块技术条件有所向好，上 涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析 行业板块简评》 7.《保险板块或已走出下降趋势，上 涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析 行业板块简评》 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 核心观点：上证指数目前上有3418点一线的压力，下有3174点一线的支撑，目前尚未有效 突破。近日指数正趋近3418点一线的压力位，压力位 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月05日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人： 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250605 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 ➢ 1.英伟达Q1数据中心业务成绩亮眼，美限制EDA龙头对华提供服务——电子行业周报 2025/5/26-2025/6/1 ➢ 2.关注陆家嘴论坛政策发布预期带来的市场情绪催化——非银金融行业周报（20250526- 20250601） ➢ 1.四部门组织开展人力资源服务业与制造业融合发展试点工作 ➢ 2.美国ISM服务业PMI大幅回落，跌至50荣枯线以下 ...