[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月07日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250507 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 [table_summary] ➢ 1.旅游市场火热，出行半径扩大——五一消费数据点评 ➢ 2.海外云厂商Q1云业务表现亮眼，资本开支维持高位——电子行业周报2025/4/28- 2025/5/4 ➢ 1.何立峰将访问瑞士、法国并举行中美经贸高层会谈 ➢ 2.中方和欧洲议会全面取消对交往的限制 ➢ 3.国家主席习近平同欧洲理事会主席科斯塔、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩就中欧建交50周年 互致贺电 | 1.1. 旅游市场火热，出行半径扩大——五一消费数据点评 | | 3 | 1.2. 海外云厂商 | 云业务表现亮眼，资本开支维持高位——电子行业周报 | ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月07日 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 [荣盛石化（ Table_NewTitle] 002493）：炼化边际改善，大 化工平台深化 ——公司简评报告 投资要点 ➢ 风险提示：原油价格剧烈波动；下游需求不及预期；新材料项目落地不及预期。 [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 289094.84 | 325111.61 | 326475.16 | 333855.87 | 348443.90 | 364351.06 | | 同比增速(%) | 63.31% | 12.46% | 0.42% | 2.26% | 4.37% | 4.57% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3340.16 | 1158.15 | 724.48 | 2887.98 | 3831.54 | 4876.71 | | 同比增速 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月07日 ➢ 风险提示：原油价格剧烈波动；下游需求不及预期；新材料项目落地不及预期。 [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 289094.84 | 325111.61 | 326475.16 | 333855.87 | 348443.90 | 364351.06 | | 同比增速(%) | 63.31% | 12.46% | 0.42% | 2.26% | 4.37% | 4.57% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3340.16 | 1158.15 | 724.48 | 2887.98 | 3831.54 | 4876.71 | | 同比增速(%) | -73.95% | -65.33% | -37.44% | 298.63% | 32.67% | 27.28% | | 毛利率(%) | 10.81% | 11.49% | ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月07日 超配 业 周 报 非 银 金 融 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -30% -14% 3% 19% 35% 51% 67% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.从蚂蚁要约收购耀才证券，看金融 科技并购券商的国际化布局——资 本市场聚焦（一） 2.万能险最低保证利率可调整，特别 储备与平滑机制保障稳健运行—— 保险业态观察（三） 3.蚂蚁财富要约收购耀才证券，万能 险迎监管优化——非银金融行业周 报（20250421-20250427） [Table_NewTitle 券商一季报业绩大幅增长，保险 ] NBV延 续高增势头 ——非银金融行业周报（20250428-20250504） [table_main] 投资要点： 研 究 [table_invest] 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月07日 超配 业 周 报 非 银 金 融 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -30% -14% 3% 19% 35% 51% 67% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:非银金融(0749) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.从蚂蚁要约收购耀才证券，看金融 科技并购券商的国际化布局——资 本市场聚焦（一） 2.万能险最低保证利率可调整，特别 储备与平滑机制保障稳健运行—— 保险业态观察（三） 3.蚂蚁财富要约收购耀才证券，万能 险迎监管优化——非银金融行业周 报（20250421-20250427） [Table_NewTitle 券商一季报业绩大幅增长，保险 ] NBV延 续高增势头 ——非银金融行业周报（20250428-20250504） [table_main] 投资要点： 研 究 [table_invest] 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic sector, indicating a moderate recovery in demand and recommending focus on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [4][5]. Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a mild recovery, with significant capital expenditures from major cloud service providers like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, reflecting their commitment to AI infrastructure [4]. - Microsoft reported Q1 revenue of $70.066 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising 18% to $25.824 billion. The intelligent cloud segment, including Azure, saw a 33% revenue increase [4]. - Meta's Q1 revenue reached $42.314 billion, up 16% year-on-year, with a net profit of $16.644 billion, marking a 35% increase. The company raised its 2025 capital expenditure forecast to $64-72 billion [4]. - Amazon's Q1 revenue grew 9% to $155.67 billion, with net profit soaring 64% to $17.127 billion. AWS cloud revenue increased 17% [4]. - Apple's Q1 revenue was $95.4 billion, a 5% increase, with a net profit of $24.78 billion. The gross margin reached a three-year high of 47.1% [4]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The report highlights significant advancements in AI and cloud technologies, with major companies investing heavily in infrastructure to support AI applications [10][11][12]. Company Performance - The report details the Q1 performance of various companies, including: - **Lexin Technology**: Q1 revenue of $558 million, up 44.08% year-on-year [19]. - **Weir Shares**: Q1 revenue of $6.472 billion, a 14.68% increase [19]. - **Zhi Chun Technology**: Q1 revenue of $728 million, down 10.32% year-on-year [19]. Market Trends - The electronic sector outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Electronics Index rising 1.34% while the CSI 300 Index fell 0.43% [20][21]. - The semiconductor sub-sector showed a 2.25% increase, while electronic components experienced a slight decline of 0.39% [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on: - AIOT sector companies such as Lexin Technology and Hengxuan Technology [5]. - AI-driven innovation companies, particularly in computing chips and optical devices [5]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment and materials companies due to expectations of local substitution [5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic sector, indicating a moderate recovery in demand and recommending focus on four main investment themes: AIOT, AI-driven technologies, equipment materials, and consumer electronics [4][5]. Core Insights - The electronic sector is experiencing a mild recovery, with significant capital expenditures from major cloud service providers like Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, reflecting their commitment to AI infrastructure [4]. - Microsoft reported Q1 revenue of $70.066 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising 18% to $25.824 billion. The intelligent cloud segment saw a 33% revenue increase [4]. - Meta's Q1 revenue reached $42.314 billion, up 16% year-on-year, with a net profit of $16.644 billion, marking a 35% increase [4]. - Apple maintained stable performance in Q1 with revenue of $95.4 billion, a 5% increase, and a gross margin of 47.1%, the highest in three years [4]. - The report highlights the electronic sector's performance, with the Shenwan Electronics Index rising 1.34%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.77 percentage points [20]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Major advancements in AI and cloud services are driving growth in the electronic sector, with significant investments in AI capabilities and infrastructure [10][11]. - Apple plans to procure 19 million chips in the U.S. to enhance local supplier collaboration [10]. - New standards for vehicle-mounted lidar have been established, indicating progress in automotive technology [10]. Company Performance - Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon reported strong Q1 results, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, showcasing the resilience of their cloud services [4]. - Apple’s Q1 results reflect a stable market position despite potential impacts from tariff policies [4]. Market Trends - The electronic sector is showing signs of recovery, with various sub-sectors experiencing different levels of growth, such as semiconductors and optical electronics [21][22]. - The report notes a positive trend in the semiconductor sub-sector, with a 2.25% increase, while other segments like electronic components saw a slight decline [21].

Group 1 - The report highlights the resilience of the U.S. non-farm employment data for April 2025, with an increase of 177,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 138,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [5][6][8] - The service sector added 156,000 jobs, but there was a marginal slowdown, particularly in retail, dining, and accommodation sectors, which showed signs of weakness [6][7] - The report indicates that the U.S. economy contracted in Q1 2025, with a GDP decline of -0.3%, attributed to increased trade deficits, slowing fiscal spending, and pessimistic consumer expectations [11][12][13] Group 2 - The company "千味央厨" (Qianwei Yangchu) reported a revenue of 1.868 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 1.71% year-on-year, and a net profit of 84 million yuan, down 37.67% [16][17] - The report notes that the company is experiencing a product adjustment phase, with a significant increase in revenue from prepared dishes, which rose by 273.39% due to the growing demand for standardized ingredients [17][19] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, leading to increased expenses that have pressured profitability, with a gross margin of 23.66% and a net margin of 4.44% for 2024 [18][19] Group 3 - The report discusses the historical context of oil price wars, noting that recent declines in oil prices are influenced by Saudi Arabia's strategy to regain market share and the potential for oversupply [23][24] - It emphasizes that while oil prices are under pressure, the long-term fundamentals may still support prices due to low global inventories and limited capital expenditure by producers [24]

Employment Data - In April 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, exceeding the expected 138,000[2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with expectations[2] - The labor force participation rate slightly increased to 62.6% from 62.5%[2] Sector Performance - The service sector added 156,000 jobs, a decrease from 161,000 in March[2] - Retail jobs decreased by 2,000, contrasting with an increase of 22,000 in March[2] - Transportation and warehousing saw a significant rise, adding 29,000 jobs compared to 2,700 in March[2] Wage Growth - Private sector hourly wages rose by 0.2% month-over-month, down from 0.3%[2] - Manufacturing wages saw a decline of 0.3%, a drop from a 0.8% increase in the previous month[2] - The information consulting sector experienced a notable increase in wages, rising from -0.1% to 1.0%[2] Immigration Impact - In April, the number of immigrants decreased by 825,000, and immigrant employment fell by 410,000[2] - The decline in immigrant numbers has led to a higher employment rate among remaining immigrants[2] Market Implications - The resilience in the job market may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with market expectations pushing the timeline to July with a probability of 55.2%[2]

Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 decreased at an annualized rate of -0.3%, below the expected -0.2% and down from 2.4% in the previous quarter[2] - Year-on-year GDP growth was recorded at 2.0%, down from 2.5% in the previous quarter[2] Contributing Factors - The trade deficit widened significantly due to a surge in imports, with imports increasing from -1.9% to 41.3%, leading net exports to contribute -5.0% to GDP, the lowest since the pandemic[2] - Government spending growth slowed, with a quarterly annualized rate dropping from 3.1% to -1.4%, reducing its contribution to GDP from 0.5% to -0.3%[2] - Personal consumption growth fell from 4.0% to 1.8%, with a notable decline in durable goods consumption from 12.4% to -3.4%[2] Investment Trends - Non-residential fixed investment became a key driver of economic growth, rising from -3.0% to 9.8%, contributing 1.3% to GDP[2] - Equipment and machinery investment saw a significant increase from -0.5% to 1.1%, with computer equipment investment surging from -19.8% to 112.8%[2] Market Outlook - The Q1 GDP data is not expected to prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, as the factors affecting GDP are not seen as sustainable[2] - Future employment data, particularly the April non-farm payrolls, will be more critical for market reactions[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include higher-than-expected inflation and a more significant downturn in the U.S. economy[2]