行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月29日 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 任晓帆 S0630522070001 rxf@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -50% -39% -29% -18% -8% 3% 13% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:美容护理(0777) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.6月社零承压，关注国货表现—— 美 容 护 理 行 业 周 报 (2024/7/15- 2024/7/19) [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 上美股份]发布业绩预告，LVMH上半年香 水化妆品同比增长6% ——美容护理行业周报(2024/7/22-2024/7/26) [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 市场表现：（1）美容护理板块：本周沪深300指数下跌3.67%，申万美容护理指数下跌 3.99%，行业跑输大盘0.32pcts，涨幅在全部申万一级行业中排倒数第6位。（2）个股方面： 本周板块内涨幅前五的个股分别为ST美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the profit growth of industrial enterprises has improved, driven by a seasonal rise in profit margins and a decrease in cost rates due to falling upstream prices. The performance of industries benefiting from equipment renewal policies and improved export conditions is relatively strong [7][14][9] - In June, the profit margin for industrial enterprises rose to 6.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, significantly exceeding seasonal trends. Revenue growth for the month was 2.9% year-on-year, with a slight decline in volume but an increase in price [8][14] - The report highlights that upstream coal mining has shown significant improvement, while the equipment manufacturing sector has provided substantial support. The profit growth of downstream industries such as beverages and pharmaceuticals has also improved [9][14] Group 2 - The report notes that the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises in June increased by 3.5% year-on-year, slightly up from the previous value of 3.45%. The profit growth rate is stronger than seasonal expectations [13][14] - The structure of profits across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors has changed, with midstream equipment manufacturing's profit share increasing significantly to 33.2%, while the shares of upstream mining and midstream raw materials have decreased [15][14] - Inventory growth has continued to rise, with finished goods inventory increasing by 4.7% year-on-year by the end of June, indicating a potential recovery in inventory replenishment driven by price adjustments [16][14] Group 3 - The report discusses the macroeconomic context, noting that the central bank has implemented multiple interest rate cuts, reflecting the commitment to achieving economic and social development goals. This is expected to facilitate more funds entering the real economy [11][18] - The focus on high-quality development is emphasized, with the government planning to support large-scale equipment updates and the renewal of consumer goods, with an estimated investment of over 3 trillion yuan in the next five years [24][33] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is concentrating on sectors such as smart connected vehicles, new materials, and low-altitude economy to accelerate the development of new productive forces [25][35]

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Group 1: Profit Growth and Inventory Trends - In June, the cumulative year-on-year profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.5%, up from the previous value of 3.45%[24] - The profit growth rate in June was higher than seasonal averages, with a month-on-month increase of 14.7%, surpassing the post-pandemic average of 7.27%[25] - Finished goods inventory increased by 4.7% year-on-year in June, up from 3.6% in the previous month, indicating a recovery in inventory growth[11] Group 2: Revenue and Cost Dynamics - The revenue profit margin improved to 6.4% in June, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, significantly exceeding seasonal trends[29] - The cost rate decreased, with the cost per 100 yuan of revenue falling below the previous year's level for the first time, likely due to weaker upstream prices[29] - The month-on-month Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a decline of 0.8%, which was an increase of 0.6 percentage points from May[29] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The profit share of upstream raw material-related industries decreased, while the profit share of midstream equipment manufacturing increased to 33.2%, up by 5.9 percentage points[35] - Coal mining profits turned positive due to increased demand during peak summer, while profits in black metal mining declined, affecting upstream profit shares[35] - The recovery in downstream sectors such as beverages and pharmaceuticals was noted, while automotive profits continued to decline due to industry price reductions[20]

行 业 研 究 银 行 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月27日 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -27% -19% -10% -2% 6% 15% 23% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:银行(0748) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.信贷节奏更均衡，增量与结构再平 衡——银行业"量价质"跟踪（一） 2.存款重定价有望缓冲资产端压力 ——银行业"量价质"跟踪（二） [table_invest] 标配 [Table_NewTitle 信贷新旧动能切换 ] ，息差压力明显缓解 ——银行业"量价质"跟踪（三） [table_main] 投资要点： ➢ 2022年以来新旧动能切换，信贷结构调整。2022以来房地产对经济驱动明显放缓，总量+ 结构货币政策保持宽松，银行信贷规模实现较快增长。结构上来看，高质量发展阶段新旧 动能切换，不同领域信贷分化。一方面，普惠、高端制造、科技、绿色等领域信贷需求 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slow cooling, with Q2 2024 GDP growth at 2.8%, exceeding the forecast of 2.0% and the previous value of 1.4%[22] - The core PCE inflation rate for Q2 2024 is at 2.9%, higher than the expected 2.7% and lower than the previous 3.7%[22] Consumer and Investment Trends - Consumer spending remains the largest support for the U.S. economy, contributing 1.6% to GDP growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%[23] - Residential investment has declined, with an annualized quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.4%, down from a positive growth of 16% in Q1 2024, contributing -0.05% to GDP[3] - Business investments in construction, equipment, and intellectual property have increased by 5.3%, 1.8%, and 4.6% respectively, driven by transportation and information processing equipment[24] Inventory and Trade Impact - Private sector inventory increased, contributing 0.8% to GDP growth, marking it as the second-largest contributor after consumer spending[7] - The trade deficit continues to weigh on GDP growth, with imports rising by 4.9% and exports by 3.5%, resulting in a 0.7% drag on GDP growth[8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There are hopes for a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, with no signs of a sharp recession, although market volatility is expected to increase[4] - The strong dollar and limited growth in overseas economies are negatively impacting U.S. exports, indicating resilient domestic demand despite trade deficits[8]

行 业 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月26日 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 张晶磊 zjlei@longone.com.cn 联系人 马小萱 mxxuan@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -39% -30% -21% -12% -3% 6% 15% 23-07 23-10 24-01 24-04 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.需求保持稳健，成本端或将改善— —轮胎行业月报（2024年6月） 2.卫星化学（002648）：α-烯烃再取 新成果，业绩增长仍存新空间——公 司简评报告 3.制冷剂配额调整推动行业格局持 续优化——氟化工行业月报（2024年 6月） [table_invest] 标配 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [Table_Reportdate] 2024年07月26日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王珏人 S0630523100001 wjr@longone.com.cn ➢ 1.立华股份（300761）：上半年实现扭亏，猪鸡成本持续改善——公司简评报告 财经要闻 ➢ 2.国有大行集体存款降息：两年期及以上均下调20个基点 ➢ 4.美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率、PCE价指数均高于预期 | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 正文目录 | | | | 1. 重点推荐 | | | | 1.1. 立华股份 ( 300761 ): 上半年实现扭亏，猪鸡成本持续改善――公司简评报告 .. | | 1.2. 卫星化学（002648） α-烯烃再取新成果，业绩增长仍存新空间——公司简 | | 评报告 | 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 2/8 | --- | --- | |----------------- ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of internal momentum within the industry, focusing on new productive forces and technological advancements as key drivers for growth [1][55]. - In the first half of the year, economic performance showed a trend of supply exceeding demand, indicating potential challenges for industries reliant on consumer spending [2][9]. - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, with a potential improvement in sales year-on-year, driven by policy measures aimed at inventory reduction and housing construction [27][6]. Group 2 - Consumer recovery is slow, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption, as evidenced by retail sales growth rates [32][11]. - Exports remain resilient but face uncertainties due to increased tariffs from the US and EU on Chinese products, which could impact future trade dynamics [13][16]. - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery in inventory levels, which typically correlates with increased investment, although demand remains weak [21][41]. Group 3 - The high-tech manufacturing sector is showing robust investment growth, outpacing overall manufacturing, indicating a shift towards advanced industries [55]. - The report highlights the ongoing supply-side reforms in the chemical industry, driven by low-carbon policies, which are expected to enhance the competitive landscape for leading firms [116][117]. - The copper market is anticipated to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, supported by increasing demand from renewable energy sectors [111][86].

Key Recommendations - Satellite Chemical (002648) achieved a revenue of 19.4 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.59%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.056 billion yuan, an increase of 12.51% [11] - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 10.596 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.53% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.34% [11] - The revenue breakdown by product for Q2 includes functional chemicals at 9.247 billion yuan, polymer new materials at 5.488 billion yuan, new energy materials at 357 million yuan, and other businesses at 4.308 billion yuan [11] C2 Business Performance - The average price of key C2 products in Q2 2024 was as follows: HDPE at 8,646.77 yuan/ton, ethylene oxide at 6,880.65 yuan/ton, and ethylene glycol at 4,486.05 yuan/ton, with respective changes of +363.44, +208.98, and -105.28 yuan/ton compared to Q1 2024 [12] - The price of ethylene glycol has risen from an average of 4,165.94 yuan/ton in 2023 to approximately 4,650 yuan/ton currently [12] - The company has optimized its production efficiency during maintenance, enhancing the stability and quality of operations [12] C3 Business Insights - In Q2 2024, the average prices for C3 products were: PP powder at 7,608.06 yuan/ton, acrylic acid at 7,177.42 yuan/ton, and butyl acrylate at 9,835.48 yuan/ton, with changes of +179.73, +867.58, and -66.16 yuan/ton respectively compared to Q1 2024 [13] - The successful commissioning of the first phase of the 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project will enhance the company's efficiency in utilizing propylene resources [13] - The new projects are expected to support the company's growth trajectory by establishing a closed-loop supply chain for propylene and its derivatives [13] Machinery Equipment Industry - The machinery equipment sector is focusing on global expansion through mergers and acquisitions, with companies like Giant Star Technology acquiring regional leaders to enhance their market presence [15] - The global market is witnessing a Matthew effect, where leading companies are likely to gain more market share due to their financial and managerial capabilities [16] - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies with strong product matrices and overseas layouts, such as XCMG, Zoomlion, and Sany Heavy Industry [17] Tire Industry Overview - The tire industry is experiencing stable demand, with expectations of improved cost conditions as raw material prices are projected to decline [29] - The production capacity utilization rate remains high, particularly for semi-steel tires, while full-steel tires face competitive pressures [29] - The export share of domestic tire manufacturers is expected to increase as production facilities are established in Southeast Asia [29]