证券研究报告|行业深度报告 2025 年 02 月 17 日 非银行金融 经济泡沫破裂后的日本证券业复盘 日本证券业集中度不断提升，外资券商市占率下降。上世纪 80 年代末，日 本泡沫经济破裂后券商数量保持稳定，总体数量保持在 250 家左右，证券业 竞争格局进一步集中化。日本证券行业具有集中度非常高的特点，综合性大 券商占据绝对优势地位，形成了如今日本证券市场五大综合型券商独大的局 面。2023 年五大券商的营业收入占行业营业收入 40%以上，净利润占行业 净利润 45%以上。2000 年以来，受日本经济的长期低迷、通货紧缩、市场 激烈竞争以及监管环境变化等多因素影响，外资券商数量逐步收缩，数量从 2000 年 52 家下降至 2022 年 9 家，在营业收入方面，外资券商的市场占 有率由高峰近 30%以上下降到约 1%。 股市下行导致资产负债表质量恶化，同时收入下降但成本刚性导致净利润波 动。一方面，行业总资产和行业净资产虽然受到泡沫破裂、亚洲金融危机和 2008 年金融危机的影响，资产水平有所下降，但总资产整体的上升趋势未 有所改变。净资产在 2013 年股市重启上涨行情后，净资产规模也在波动上 升，2 ...

三生制药（1530.HK） 开展双抗 ADC 联用研究，研发矩阵储备丰富 | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 6859.4 | 7815.9 | 8863.3 | 9988.9 | 11407.3 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 7.5 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 14.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1914.9 | 1549.2 | 2004.9 | 2212.3 | 2475.7 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 16.0 | -19.1 | 29.4 | 10.3 | 11.9 | | ROE（%） | 14.8 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 12.4 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | | P/E（倍） | 7.1 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | | P/B（倍） | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 02 月 17 日 汽车 比亚迪发布"天神之眼"高阶智驾，加速推进智驾平权 | 1 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2024E | 2025E | 2024E | 2025E | | 000625.SZ | 长安汽车 | 增持 | 0.94 | 1.27 | 14.48 | 10.72 | | 000887.SZ | 中鼎股份 | 增持 | 0.99 | 1.17 | 16.8 | 14.21 | | 002284.SZ | 亚太股份 | 增持 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 31.76 | 26.31 | | 002906.SZ | 华阳集团 | 增持 | 1.31 | 1.78 | 27.38 | 20.15 | | 09660.HK 地平线机器人-W | | 买入 | 1.26 | 1.56 | 5.41 | 4.37 | | 301106.SZ | 骏成科技 | 增持 | ...

证券研究报告|行业周报 2025 年 02 月 18 日 电力及公用事业 行业周报（2.10-2.16）：各省持续出台绿电政策，板块因市场风格 切换表现低迷 | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2024E | 2025E | 2024E | 2025E | | 001289.SZ | 龙源电力 | 增持 | 0.82 | 0.89 | 20.33 | 18.73 | | 600163.SH | 中闽能源 | 增持 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 13.26 | 12.31 | | 600674.SH | 川投能源 | 增持 | 1.02 | 1.09 | 15.28 | 14.3 | | 600795.SH | 国电电力 | 买入 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 7.76 | 8.37 | | 600886.SH | 国投电力 | 增持 | 1.04 | 1.18 | 13.96 | 12.31 | | 600900.SH | 长江电力 | 买入 | 1 ...

行业点评观点：根据风电头条数据统计，2025 年 1 月央企陆上和海上风电项 目机组开标总规模约 6.24GW，中标规模最大的三家整机商合计中标规模 3.4GW，品牌集中度较高。均价方面，含塔筒海风项目中标均价为 2910.00 元 /kw，环比上月下降 10.19%；不含塔筒陆风项目中标均价为 1422.39 元/kW， 同比、环比均有所下降；含塔筒陆风项目中标均价为 2122.42 元/kW，同比、 环比均有所提升，主要原因是部分开标项目容量较小从而导致单价较高。 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 02 月 17 日 风电周报（2025.2.10-2025.2.16） 五部门印发重点风电低碳技术，广东 300MW 海风机组启动招标 | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2024E | 2025E | 2024E | 2025E | | 002531.SZ | 天顺风能 | 增持 | 0.42 | 0.66 | 17.57 | 11.13 | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market" with expectations of outperforming the market in the next six months [72]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot H1 from Yushutech made a notable appearance at the Spring Festival Gala, showcasing advanced movement capabilities and marking the company's entry into the humanoid robot sector [1][18]. - Tesla has updated its production guidance for the Optimus robot, aiming to produce 10,000 units by 2025, with a monthly capacity increase to 1,000 units, and plans to reach 100,000 units per month by 2027 [2][18]. - Blues Technology has successfully delivered the Lingxi X1 humanoid robot products to Zhiyuan Robotics, demonstrating its strong capabilities in mass production and quality control [2][19]. - The National Railway Group has issued an action plan for railway equipment upgrades, focusing on enhancing safety, reliability, and promoting green alternatives [3][20]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Yushutech's humanoid robot H1 performed at the Spring Festival Gala, highlighting its agility and coordination [1][18]. - Tesla aims for significant production increases of its Optimus robot, targeting 10,000 units by 2025 and scaling up to 100,000 units by 2027 [2][18]. - Blues Technology has partnered with Zhiyuan Robotics for the mass delivery of humanoid robots, showcasing its production capabilities [2][19]. - The National Railway Group's action plan includes five initiatives to modernize railway equipment and enhance operational efficiency [3][20]. Trade Data - In December 2024, China's engineering machinery export value reached $50.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.3% [4][20]. - The total engineering machinery trade value for 2024 was $554.5 billion, with exports growing by 8.87% [7][20]. Market Performance - The mechanical equipment sector saw a slight increase of 0.02% from January 20 to February 2, 2025, underperforming the broader market [11][15]. - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio stood at 30.95 as of January 27, 2025 [12]. Rental Market Insights - The rental index for aerial work platforms in December 2024 was 616 points, showing a slight month-on-month decline of 1.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% [21][22].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Viewpoints - DeepSeek is driving the acceleration of the domestic AI industry, with the launch of DeepSeek-R1 showcasing significant advancements in model performance and cost-effectiveness compared to OpenAI's offerings [1] - The robot industry is experiencing breakthroughs both domestically and internationally, with notable developments such as the performance of humanoid robots at the Spring Festival Gala and Tesla's plans for mass production of Optimus robots [2][3][6] - The year 2025 is identified as a critical year for the humanoid robot industry, with expectations of increased production and technological advancements [6] Summary by Sections DeepSeek and AI Industry - DeepSeek-R1 utilizes reinforcement learning to enhance model inference capabilities with minimal labeled data, achieving performance comparable to OpenAI's models [1] - The API pricing for DeepSeek-R1 is significantly lower than that of OpenAI, making it a competitive option for developers [1] - The lightweight adaptability of DeepSeek-R1 models allows for efficient deployment on devices with limited memory [1] Robotics Industry Developments - Domestic humanoid robots, such as the H1 from Yushu Technology, demonstrated advanced capabilities during a high-profile performance, indicating progress in hardware and AI integration [2] - Tesla's Optimus robot is projected to reach a production capacity of 10,000 units per month by 2026, with potential revenue exceeding $10 trillion in the long term [3][6] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on various sectors within the AI and robotics industries, including telecommunications operators, main equipment manufacturers, optical modules, and industrial internet solutions [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2024 performance shows significant year-on-year growth, with expectations for AI-related revenue to double in 2025 [3] - The implementation of new subsidy policies is expected to significantly boost domestic demand for consumer electronics [3] - TV panel prices are on the rise, while storage prices are experiencing divergence [3] - The electronic industry is seeing a gradual recovery in demand, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their market positions [3] Summary by Sections TSMC Performance and AI Revenue - TSMC reported Q4 2024 revenue of NT$868.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.3% [3] - The company anticipates a 10% growth in the global wafer manufacturing industry in 2025, driven by strong AI-related demand [3] Domestic Consumer Electronics Demand - A new subsidy policy for smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches has been implemented, providing a 15% subsidy up to NT$500 per item [3] - Following the subsidy announcement, smartphone sales increased by 200%, tablets by 300%, and smart children's watches by 100% [3] Market Trends in Panels and Storage - The average price of 65-inch TV panels increased by 0.6% in January, with expectations for further price hikes across various sizes [3] - Storage prices have shown a downward trend in most application markets, except for AI servers, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Huaqin Technology, Nanchip Technology, and others for potential recovery in consumer electronics [3] - It also highlights the semiconductor industry's improving conditions, recommending companies like Zhongjing Technology and Huahong Semiconductor for investment [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating an expectation that the overall industry performance will surpass the market in the next six months [16]. Core Insights - DeepSeek has emerged as a significant player in the AI landscape, achieving performance comparable to OpenAI's models at a fraction of the cost, with its latest model DeepSeek-R1 demonstrating capabilities at one-tenth the cost of GPT-o1 [3]. - The launch of multiple models, including Janus-Pro and JanusFlow, has enhanced DeepSeek's product offerings, particularly in multimodal capabilities, which is expected to accelerate AI application development [3]. - Major companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu have completed cloud deployments of DeepSeek's models, indicating a growing trend towards integrating domestic AI solutions into enterprise applications [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing developments in the computer industry, particularly during the Spring Festival period, with DeepSeek's advancements capturing significant attention [2]. - DeepSeek's models have been recognized for their innovative architecture and cost-effectiveness, leading to a competitive landscape characterized by a "model price war" [3]. Cybersecurity Concerns - DeepSeek has faced multiple DDoS attacks, emphasizing the critical importance of cybersecurity in the AI sector as the platform's popularity grows [4]. - The report notes that DeepSeek's AI assistant has achieved the top download ranking in 140 global markets, increasing the stakes for information security [4]. Cloud Deployment - The report details the successful cloud deployments of DeepSeek's models by major tech companies, which streamline the AI development process for users [5]. - This trend is expected to enhance the efficiency and accessibility of AI applications for developers and enterprises alike [5].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The financial technology sector is evolving rapidly, transitioning from electronic and internet finance to a more intelligent and integrated approach, emphasizing the importance of risk control and asset allocation in capital markets [1][4] - The future capital expenditure in financial IT is expected to grow due to external policy support and internal investment trends, with a focus on digital transformation across banking, securities, and insurance sectors [2][16] - The development of financial technology is increasingly supported by policies, with clear focus areas and application scenarios emerging, such as core trading systems and AI technologies [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Phases of Financial IT - The financial technology industry has undergone significant iterations approximately every 15-20 years since the 1970s, evolving from electronic and information technology to internet finance and now to intelligent finance [12][14] 2. Factors Driving Growth in Financial Technology Capital Expenditure - The financial technology sector combines advanced technologies like big data, AI, blockchain, and cloud computing, aiming to enhance efficiency and customer experience in traditional financial institutions [16][18] - The banking sector has seen substantial IT investments, with major banks like ICBC and CCB investing over 200 billion yuan each in 2023, reflecting a trend of increasing capital expenditure [20][22] 3. Financial Technology Technology and Application - The core trading systems in securities firms are undergoing a transformation to improve performance and security, with a shift towards distributed architectures [45][47] - AI models are being integrated into financial services, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency, while regulatory frameworks are being established to ensure safe deployment [48][50] 4. Rise of Financial Information Services - The financial information services industry has grown significantly, with market size increasing from 340.86 billion yuan in 2018 to an estimated 762.26 billion yuan by 2025, driven by the expanding capital market and diverse investor needs [80][82] - The correlation between A-share market turnover and the revenue growth of leading financial information service providers indicates a strong relationship between market activity and service demand [89][92] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing development of the capital market and the increasing demand for financial technology will create significant investment opportunities across various segments of the financial technology industry [94]