证券研究报告|行业周报 2025 年 02 月 18 日 电力及公用事业 行业周报（2.10-2.16）：各省持续出台绿电政策，板块因市场风格 切换表现低迷 | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2024E | 2025E | 2024E | 2025E | | 001289.SZ | 龙源电力 | 增持 | 0.82 | 0.89 | 20.33 | 18.73 | | 600163.SH | 中闽能源 | 增持 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 13.26 | 12.31 | | 600674.SH | 川投能源 | 增持 | 1.02 | 1.09 | 15.28 | 14.3 | | 600795.SH | 国电电力 | 买入 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 7.76 | 8.37 | | 600886.SH | 国投电力 | 增持 | 1.04 | 1.18 | 13.96 | 12.31 | | 600900.SH | 长江电力 | 买入 | 1 ...

行业点评观点：根据风电头条数据统计，2025 年 1 月央企陆上和海上风电项 目机组开标总规模约 6.24GW，中标规模最大的三家整机商合计中标规模 3.4GW，品牌集中度较高。均价方面，含塔筒海风项目中标均价为 2910.00 元 /kw，环比上月下降 10.19%；不含塔筒陆风项目中标均价为 1422.39 元/kW， 同比、环比均有所下降；含塔筒陆风项目中标均价为 2122.42 元/kW，同比、 环比均有所提升，主要原因是部分开标项目容量较小从而导致单价较高。 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 02 月 17 日 风电周报（2025.2.10-2025.2.16） 五部门印发重点风电低碳技术，广东 300MW 海风机组启动招标 | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2024E | 2025E | 2024E | 2025E | | 002531.SZ | 天顺风能 | 增持 | 0.42 | 0.66 | 17.57 | 11.13 | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Viewpoints - DeepSeek is driving the acceleration of the domestic AI industry, with the launch of DeepSeek-R1 showcasing significant advancements in model performance and cost-effectiveness compared to OpenAI's offerings [1] - The robot industry is experiencing breakthroughs both domestically and internationally, with notable developments such as the performance of humanoid robots at the Spring Festival Gala and Tesla's plans for mass production of Optimus robots [2][3][6] - The year 2025 is identified as a critical year for the humanoid robot industry, with expectations of increased production and technological advancements [6] Summary by Sections DeepSeek and AI Industry - DeepSeek-R1 utilizes reinforcement learning to enhance model inference capabilities with minimal labeled data, achieving performance comparable to OpenAI's models [1] - The API pricing for DeepSeek-R1 is significantly lower than that of OpenAI, making it a competitive option for developers [1] - The lightweight adaptability of DeepSeek-R1 models allows for efficient deployment on devices with limited memory [1] Robotics Industry Developments - Domestic humanoid robots, such as the H1 from Yushu Technology, demonstrated advanced capabilities during a high-profile performance, indicating progress in hardware and AI integration [2] - Tesla's Optimus robot is projected to reach a production capacity of 10,000 units per month by 2026, with potential revenue exceeding $10 trillion in the long term [3][6] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on various sectors within the AI and robotics industries, including telecommunications operators, main equipment manufacturers, optical modules, and industrial internet solutions [7]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market" with expectations of outperforming the market in the next six months [72]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot H1 from Yushutech made a notable appearance at the Spring Festival Gala, showcasing advanced movement capabilities and marking the company's entry into the humanoid robot sector [1][18]. - Tesla has updated its production guidance for the Optimus robot, aiming to produce 10,000 units by 2025, with a monthly capacity increase to 1,000 units, and plans to reach 100,000 units per month by 2027 [2][18]. - Blues Technology has successfully delivered the Lingxi X1 humanoid robot products to Zhiyuan Robotics, demonstrating its strong capabilities in mass production and quality control [2][19]. - The National Railway Group has issued an action plan for railway equipment upgrades, focusing on enhancing safety, reliability, and promoting green alternatives [3][20]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Yushutech's humanoid robot H1 performed at the Spring Festival Gala, highlighting its agility and coordination [1][18]. - Tesla aims for significant production increases of its Optimus robot, targeting 10,000 units by 2025 and scaling up to 100,000 units by 2027 [2][18]. - Blues Technology has partnered with Zhiyuan Robotics for the mass delivery of humanoid robots, showcasing its production capabilities [2][19]. - The National Railway Group's action plan includes five initiatives to modernize railway equipment and enhance operational efficiency [3][20]. Trade Data - In December 2024, China's engineering machinery export value reached $50.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.3% [4][20]. - The total engineering machinery trade value for 2024 was $554.5 billion, with exports growing by 8.87% [7][20]. Market Performance - The mechanical equipment sector saw a slight increase of 0.02% from January 20 to February 2, 2025, underperforming the broader market [11][15]. - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio stood at 30.95 as of January 27, 2025 [12]. Rental Market Insights - The rental index for aerial work platforms in December 2024 was 616 points, showing a slight month-on-month decline of 1.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% [21][22].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating an expectation that the overall industry performance will surpass the market in the next six months [16]. Core Insights - DeepSeek has emerged as a significant player in the AI landscape, achieving performance comparable to OpenAI's models at a fraction of the cost, with its latest model DeepSeek-R1 demonstrating capabilities at one-tenth the cost of GPT-o1 [3]. - The launch of multiple models, including Janus-Pro and JanusFlow, has enhanced DeepSeek's product offerings, particularly in multimodal capabilities, which is expected to accelerate AI application development [3]. - Major companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu have completed cloud deployments of DeepSeek's models, indicating a growing trend towards integrating domestic AI solutions into enterprise applications [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing developments in the computer industry, particularly during the Spring Festival period, with DeepSeek's advancements capturing significant attention [2]. - DeepSeek's models have been recognized for their innovative architecture and cost-effectiveness, leading to a competitive landscape characterized by a "model price war" [3]. Cybersecurity Concerns - DeepSeek has faced multiple DDoS attacks, emphasizing the critical importance of cybersecurity in the AI sector as the platform's popularity grows [4]. - The report notes that DeepSeek's AI assistant has achieved the top download ranking in 140 global markets, increasing the stakes for information security [4]. Cloud Deployment - The report details the successful cloud deployments of DeepSeek's models by major tech companies, which streamline the AI development process for users [5]. - This trend is expected to enhance the efficiency and accessibility of AI applications for developers and enterprises alike [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2024 performance shows significant year-on-year growth, with expectations for AI-related revenue to double in 2025 [3] - The implementation of new subsidy policies is expected to significantly boost domestic demand for consumer electronics [3] - TV panel prices are on the rise, while storage prices are experiencing divergence [3] - The electronic industry is seeing a gradual recovery in demand, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their market positions [3] Summary by Sections TSMC Performance and AI Revenue - TSMC reported Q4 2024 revenue of NT$868.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.3% [3] - The company anticipates a 10% growth in the global wafer manufacturing industry in 2025, driven by strong AI-related demand [3] Domestic Consumer Electronics Demand - A new subsidy policy for smartphones, tablets, and smartwatches has been implemented, providing a 15% subsidy up to NT$500 per item [3] - Following the subsidy announcement, smartphone sales increased by 200%, tablets by 300%, and smart children's watches by 100% [3] Market Trends in Panels and Storage - The average price of 65-inch TV panels increased by 0.6% in January, with expectations for further price hikes across various sizes [3] - Storage prices have shown a downward trend in most application markets, except for AI servers, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Huaqin Technology, Nanchip Technology, and others for potential recovery in consumer electronics [3] - It also highlights the semiconductor industry's improving conditions, recommending companies like Zhongjing Technology and Huahong Semiconductor for investment [3]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The financial technology sector is evolving rapidly, transitioning from electronic and internet finance to a more intelligent and integrated approach, emphasizing the importance of risk control and asset allocation in capital markets [1][4] - The future capital expenditure in financial IT is expected to grow due to external policy support and internal investment trends, with a focus on digital transformation across banking, securities, and insurance sectors [2][16] - The development of financial technology is increasingly supported by policies, with clear focus areas and application scenarios emerging, such as core trading systems and AI technologies [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Phases of Financial IT - The financial technology industry has undergone significant iterations approximately every 15-20 years since the 1970s, evolving from electronic and information technology to internet finance and now to intelligent finance [12][14] 2. Factors Driving Growth in Financial Technology Capital Expenditure - The financial technology sector combines advanced technologies like big data, AI, blockchain, and cloud computing, aiming to enhance efficiency and customer experience in traditional financial institutions [16][18] - The banking sector has seen substantial IT investments, with major banks like ICBC and CCB investing over 200 billion yuan each in 2023, reflecting a trend of increasing capital expenditure [20][22] 3. Financial Technology Technology and Application - The core trading systems in securities firms are undergoing a transformation to improve performance and security, with a shift towards distributed architectures [45][47] - AI models are being integrated into financial services, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency, while regulatory frameworks are being established to ensure safe deployment [48][50] 4. Rise of Financial Information Services - The financial information services industry has grown significantly, with market size increasing from 340.86 billion yuan in 2018 to an estimated 762.26 billion yuan by 2025, driven by the expanding capital market and diverse investor needs [80][82] - The correlation between A-share market turnover and the revenue growth of leading financial information service providers indicates a strong relationship between market activity and service demand [89][92] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the ongoing development of the capital market and the increasing demand for financial technology will create significant investment opportunities across various segments of the financial technology industry [94]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [12]. Core Views - WuXi AppTec's overall performance is gradually recovering, with TIDES business maintaining rapid growth. The company reported a revenue of 27.702 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 6.23%, and a net profit of 6.533 billion yuan, down 19.11% year-on-year [1][6]. - The TIDES business revenue reached 3.55 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, showing a strong growth of 71% year-on-year, with expectations for annual growth exceeding 60% [2]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with total orders amounting to 43.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.2% [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2022: 39.355 billion yuan - 2023: 40.341 billion yuan - 2024E: 39.223 billion yuan - 2025E: 45.102 billion yuan - 2026E: 51.806 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 71.8% (2022), 2.5% (2023), -2.8% (2024E), 15.0% (2025E), 14.9% (2026E) [1][7]. - **Net Profit**: - 2022: 8.814 billion yuan - 2023: 9.607 billion yuan - 2024E: 9.378 billion yuan - 2025E: 10.820 billion yuan - 2026E: 12.430 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 72.9% (2022), 9.0% (2023), -2.4% (2024E), 15.4% (2025E), 14.9% (2026E) [1][7]. - **Key Ratios**: - ROE: 19.0% (2022), 17.5% (2023), 15.3% (2024E), 15.6% (2025E), 15.8% (2026E) [1][7]. - EPS: 3.05 (2022), 3.33 (2023), 3.25 (2024E), 3.75 (2025E), 4.30 (2026E) [1][7]. Business Segment Performance - **Chemical Business**: - Revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 20.09 billion yuan, down 5.40% year-on-year, but up 10.40% when excluding specific commercial production projects [2]. - **Testing Business**: - Revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.62 billion yuan, down 4.86% year-on-year [3]. - **Biological Business**: - Revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.83 billion yuan, down 3.64% year-on-year, with new molecular types showing a 6.0% increase [3]. - **High-end CTDMO Business**: - Revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.85 billion yuan, down 17.04% year-on-year, primarily due to project delays and cancellations [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1][22]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has faced continuous pressure in 2024, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index declining by 11.19% from January 1 to October 31, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 24.60 percentage points [1][4]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index also fell by 13.66%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 34.68 percentage points [1][4]. - The top five performing stocks in the A-share pharmaceutical sector include Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical (+397.74%), Xiangxue Pharmaceutical (+191.26%), Maike Audi (+144.13%), Changshan Pharmaceutical (+78.17%), and Chuaning Biological (+68.26%) [1][7]. - Conversely, the five stocks with the largest declines are Jianzhijia (-56.01%), Puli Pharmaceutical (-54.24%), Puri Eye Hospital (-54.10%), Jindike (-52.32%), and Zhifei Biological (-52.15%) [1][9]. Market Performance Analysis - The pharmaceutical sector's performance ranks 31st among 31 Shenwan first-level industries [4]. - Sub-sectors such as chemical pharmaceuticals, traditional Chinese medicine II, medical devices, pharmaceutical commerce, medical services, and biological products have experienced declines of 0.75%, 5.67%, 11.71%, 14.32%, 20.70%, and 23.28%, respectively [4][6]. Public Fund Holdings Analysis - As of Q3 2024, the pharmaceutical sector's fund holding ratio is 10.18%, a decrease of 0.61 percentage points from the previous quarter [10][11]. - The top ten stocks by fund holding ratio in the pharmaceutical sector are: 1. Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (10.83%) 2. Mindray Medical (10.34%) 3. WuXi AppTec (5.69%) 4. Aier Eye Hospital (3.59%) 5. Tigermed (3.27%) 6. United Imaging (2.72%) 7. Huatai Medical (2.55%) 8. Kelun Pharmaceutical (2.29%) 9. Kanglong Chemical (1.84%) 10. Pianzi Pharmaceutical (1.75%) [11][12]. - The stocks with the highest increase in market value in Q3 2024 include Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (+3.7 billion), Aier Eye Hospital (+2.2 billion), and Bai Jie Shen Zhou-U (+1.3 billion) [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement, with a significant recovery in its operational performance, particularly in the iron-lithium segment, which is stabilizing [1]. - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.661 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.81%, but the loss narrowed significantly compared to the previous year [1]. - The company successfully listed its H shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately 495 million HKD, which will be used for expanding production capacity [3]. - The company is focusing on overseas markets to capitalize on the growing demand for iron-lithium materials, especially as domestic competition intensifies [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 14,072 - 2023A: 8,729 - 2024E: 8,014 - 2025E: 11,241 - 2026E: 15,576 - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan): - 2022A: 753 - 2023A: -1,233 - 2024E: -406 - 2025E: 391 - 2026E: 619 - The company expects a return to profitability by 2025, with a projected net profit of 391 million yuan [1][4]. - The report forecasts a significant increase in revenue and net profit from 2024 to 2026, with expected growth rates of 67.1%, 196.3%, and 58.2% respectively [4]. Sales Performance - The company sold 124,800 tons of iron-lithium materials in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 77.65% [2]. - Traditional business segments, including lubricants and automotive maintenance products, showed stable performance with slight variations in sales [2].