证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*专题报告 2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资策略研究 过滤噪声，以"稳"为主——周度策略行业配置观点 一周热点事件复盘：中美于伦敦经贸磋商，美国 CPI 数据不及预期，伊 朗以色列地缘冲突再起。本周（2025 年 6 月 9 日-2025 年 6 月 13 日）A 股维持震荡，上证指数在 3400 的点位受到明显阻力，新消费、创新药和 贵金属行情表现上有较好的持续性。上证指数周跌 0.24%，深证成指周跌 0.60%，创业板指周涨 0.21%，科创 50 周跌 1.88%，全市场日均成交额抬 升至 1.37 万亿元。板块风格上，本周电子、通信等科技板块回调比较明 显，而新消费行情在伊朗以色列冲突爆发后仍然"接着奏乐接着舞"，IP 经济概念爆发可能是核心推力，新消费在经济基本面难言乐观的背景下仍 表现出较好的持续性，另外一方面，和我们在上周预判的一致，美元走弱 叠加地缘冲突再度爆发，黄金本周显著走强，创新药受到 BD 交易催化也 表现较好。 我们仍然延续之前的判断：全球国际政治关系在经济增速卡住瓶颈的背 景下已经不再处于蜜月期，"全球化"带来的影响在各国的政策框架中不 再能用 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 06 月 13 日 太龙药业（600222.SH） 国资赋能+集采放量，中药 CRO 打开第二曲线 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,070 | 1,941 | 2,132 | 2,348 | 2,583 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 5.6 | -6.2 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 10.0 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 44 | 51 | 61 | 85 | 116 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 160.3 | 16.0 | 21.5 | 38.4 | 36.5 | | ROE（%） | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 6.4 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.20 | | P/E（倍） | 80.9 | 69.7 | 57.4 | 41.5 | 30.4 | | P/B（倍） | 2.2 | 2.2 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 06 月 13 日 迈瑞医疗（300760.SZ） 全球化战略再升级，数智化转型驱动全球竞争力 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 34,932 | 36,726 | 40,794 | 45,743 | 51,422 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 15.0 | 5.1 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 12.4 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 11,582 | 11,668 | 12,806 | 14,288 | 16,500 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 20.6 | 0.7 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 15.5 | | ROE（%） | 34.7 | 28.8 | 24.2 | 22.3 | 21.2 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 9.55 | 9.62 | 10.56 | 11.78 | 13.61 | | P/E（倍） | 24.7 | 24.5 | 22.3 | 20.0 | ...

证券研究报告|行业深度报告 2025 年 06 月 13 日 传媒 IP 赋能叠加社交属性推动增长，集换式卡牌赛道空间广阔 泛娱乐玩具产业规模快速增长，集换式卡牌占据较高市场份额。泛娱乐产业 围绕 IP 展开，本质在于开发以不断变化的 IP 内容为主题的多元文化娱乐产 品，从而覆盖各个年龄段愿意为喜爱的 IP 进行周边产品收藏的人群。泛娱 乐玩具 2024 年市场规模达 1018 亿元，预计 2024-2029 年有望维持 15.8% 复合增速。其中集换式卡牌是中国泛娱乐玩具行业重要的细分品类之一，该 细分赛道 2019 年至 2024 年市场规模按复合年增长率 56.6%增长，为中国 泛娱乐玩具行业增长最快的子板块。于 2024 年，集换式卡牌占中国泛娱乐 玩具行业整体市场规模的 25.8%，预计 2024-2029 年复合增速将达到 11.1%。 卡牌行业种类丰富，其中集换式卡牌市场空间广阔。卡牌行业主要分为集换 式卡牌以及非集换式卡牌，其中非集换式卡牌的内容以及玩法均相对固定， 主要包含扑克牌、三国杀、狼人杀、UNO 等。集换式卡牌则是一种融合了 特定主题、收藏、交换及对战功能的卡牌游戏。通常基于影视动 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究*周报 2025 年 06 月 10 日 5 月 CPI 环比为-0.2%，前值为 0.1%，再次下滑 0.3 个百分点回落到负区 间。另外，从往年数据来看，5 月环比低于去年同期，较 2014-2023 年环 比均值大体相当。环比拆分来看，能源价格环比下降 1.7%，影响 CPI 环 比下降约 0.13 个百分点，占 CPI 总降幅近七成；应季蔬菜上市量增加，鲜 菜价格下降 5.9%。 5 月 PPI 同比数据为-3.3%，前值为-2.7%，降幅扩大了 0.6 个百分点， PPI 同比在负区间继续下滑。同比拆分来看，5 月生产资料价格下降 4.0%，较前月的-3.1%降幅扩大 0.9 个百分点，其中，淡季下采掘和原材 料价格降幅是主要拖累项；生活资料价格下降-1.4%，主要是食品和耐用 消费品的下滑带动。 5 月 PPI 环比数据为-0.4%，与前月增速相当，也已经连续处于负增长状 态。环比拆分来看，5 月生产资料价格下降 0.6%，今年以来持续处于负区 间且降幅扩大；生活资料价格增速为 0，较 4 月（-0.4%）和 5 月（- 0.2%）有所收敛。 总体而言，5 月 CPI ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [4][19]. Core Views - The report highlights that the polyether amine industry is experiencing a downturn, with a focus on the domestic production process of COC (Cyclic Olefin Copolymer) [9][10]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence, particularly in international markets, to counteract the competitive pressures and declining prices in the domestic polyether amine market [9]. - The anticipated production and sales of COC materials are expected to create a new revenue growth curve for the company, with significant potential applications in various sectors [10][11]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 537 million yuan, with a decline of 24.7% year-on-year. Revenue is expected to recover to 1,565 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 39.0% [1][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 24 million yuan in 2023, with a significant recovery to 230 million yuan by 2027, indicating a year-on-year growth of 95.4% [1][11]. - The report outlines a projected EPS of 0.25 yuan for 2023, improving to 2.40 yuan by 2027 [1][11]. Market and Product Insights - The report notes that the domestic polyether amine market is facing increased competition, leading to price declines and pressure on profit margins. The average selling price of polyether amine decreased by 14.24% year-on-year in 2024 [2][3][9]. - The company has established a new production line for high transparency materials (COC), which is expected to begin mass production in 2025, with a long-term capacity expansion planned for 2026 [10][11]. - The company has initiated several self-research projects aimed at developing specialized COC products for various applications, indicating a strategic focus on innovation and market diversification [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [5][21]. Core Views - The increase in orders from BASF has significantly boosted the company's performance, and there is optimism regarding the continuous enrichment of the company's product matrix [1][2]. - The company is expanding its industrial chain both vertically and horizontally, enhancing existing product advantages while diversifying its product offerings [9][10]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 667 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.23%, with a net profit of 146 million yuan, up 89.21% year-on-year [1]. - For 2025, the company expects revenues of 783 million yuan and a net profit of 190 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.5% and 30.8%, respectively [11]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 2.9% in 2023 to 8.0% by 2027 [1][11]. Product and Market Development - The company has established a deep cooperation with BASF, which has led to a significant increase in sales of mobile source denitrification molecular sieves, contributing to a 50.03% year-on-year revenue growth from this segment [2][9]. - The company is actively developing new markets in Southeast Asia and India while strengthening its domestic market presence in regions like Northwest and South China [10][11]. Cost and Expense Management - In 2024, the company's sales expenses increased by 25.91%, while management expenses decreased by 18.60%, indicating a focus on cost control [3]. - The financial expenses saw a significant decline of 94.31%, reflecting improved financial management [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 is expected to be 188 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.99% [4]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period are projected to be 153 million yuan, down 43.24% year-on-year, indicating a need for careful cash management [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [4][18]. Core Viewpoints - The company is accelerating its business transformation and continuously expanding its solid-state battery layout, which is expected to benefit from advancements in cutting-edge technologies [1][2]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.136 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 41.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.2042 million yuan, up 102.33% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its lithium battery industry chain and product structure, with new production capacities expected to strengthen its strategic layout in the lithium battery sector [9][10]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 2.566 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.2% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 79 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 416.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to achieve a return on equity (ROE) of 2.9% in 2025, improving to 6.9% by 2027 [1]. Business Segmentation - In 2024, the company's rail engineering rubber products business is projected to generate revenue of 4.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.69% [2]. - The lithium compound series products are expected to generate revenue of 3.14 billion yuan, although this represents a decline of 34.34% year-on-year [2]. - The company is actively developing various new damping products to meet market demands and has established a solid foundation for its lithium compound business through its subsidiaries [2][3]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Shenzhen Xinjie Energy Technology Co., Ltd. to collaborate on solid-state lithium metal anode materials and new material research [3][8]. - This partnership aims to enhance resource integration and strengthen collaboration in the development of new lithium metal anode materials [8]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term demand trends in the rail transit industry and its ongoing efforts to strengthen its lithium battery business, leading to improved performance in the coming years [10]. - The projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 79 million yuan, 140 million yuan, and 213 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 80, 45, and 30 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5] Core Views - The company has seen an increase in wind power generation, which has positively impacted profitability, while continuing to push for asset injections [3] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.741 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.54% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.03% to 651 million yuan due to impairment provisions [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the scarcity of quality wind power resources and the long-term certainty of project development and asset injections, with projected revenues of 1.838 billion yuan, 1.903 billion yuan, and 1.927 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 1.732 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 678 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.9% [1] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decrease from 11.2% in 2023 to 9.9% by 2027 [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 0.36 yuan in 2023 to 0.45 yuan in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decline from 15.0 in 2023 to 12.0 by 2027 [1]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the construction of ETF portfolios based on industry rotation models, highlighting the potential for enhanced returns through strategic sector allocation [1][2] - The industry rotation model has demonstrated stable excess returns over the backtesting period from January 2019 to April 2025, achieving a total return of 212.87%, significantly outperforming major indices like the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [9][10] Industry Rotation Model - The model incorporates six factors: momentum, main buying amount, turnover rate change, deviation rate, intra-industry return deviation, and volatility, with a monthly rebalancing frequency [5][6] - The model's performance is evaluated across different market phases, showing varying factor effectiveness, with momentum and main buying amount consistently positive across the tested periods [6][8] ETF Market Overview - As of the end of 2024, the total scale of stock ETFs reached 29,259.35 billion yuan, with industry-themed ETFs accounting for 6,161.25 billion yuan, indicating a growing trend towards sector-specific investment strategies [25][26] - The report notes the increasing feasibility of using ETFs as tools for industry rotation strategies due to the expanding variety of newly issued industry-themed ETFs [25] ETF Portfolio Construction - The report outlines the construction of ETF portfolios based on the industry rotation model, recommending specific ETFs that align closely with the identified sectors [32][34] - The recommended ETF combinations for June 2025 include sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, banking, coal, transportation, steel, and agriculture, reflecting the model's latest insights [18][37]