| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------|-----------|---------------------------------------| | 图 | 22：2015 年投资对 GDP 的拉动处低点（%） | 图 23： | 2015 年 GDP "破七"压力较大（ % ） | | 100 | | 16 | 中国 :GDP: 不变价 : 同比 | | 80 | | 14 | | | 60 | | 12 | | | 40 | | 10 | | | 20 | | 8 | | | 0 -20 | | 6 | | | | | 4 | | | | 中国 :GDP 增长贡献率 : 最终消费支出 | 2 | | | | 中国 :GDP 增长贡献率 : 资本形成总额 | 0 | | | | 中国 :GDP 增长贡献率 : 货物和服务净出口 | | | | | | | | 水泥供给端：新产能持续投放，连续多年新增导致供给压力较大。2015 年水泥产能 处于相对高点，2008 年 "四万亿政策"推动 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the defense and military industry is expected to outperform the overall market [50]. Core Insights - The defense and military industry is experiencing a continuous increase in attention, with expectations for significant growth in the coming years, particularly as the industry approaches the final stages of order fulfillment during the 14th Five-Year Plan and enters the 15th Five-Year Plan [3][17]. - Recent announcements of large contracts, such as those from Guangwei Composite, suggest that orders within the industry are beginning to materialize, which is expected to lead to a bullish market phase once main unit orders are confirmed [3][17]. - The industry is characterized by strong demand and investment, with expectations for steady growth in the coming years, as production rhythms are being restored across the supply chain [3][11]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 0.33%, while the CSI Military Leader Index increased by 0.5%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.95%, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.36% [22]. - The defense and military sector's performance ranked 9th among 31 Shenwan primary industry sectors [22]. Stock Performance - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector last week were: - Aero Engine Corporation (17.41%) - Baosheng Co. (16.7%) - Jinxin Technology (13.68%) - China Shipbuilding Technology (8.5%) - Zhongjian Technology (8.13%) [10][22]. - Conversely, the bottom five performing stocks were: - Xinyan Co. (-17.26%) - Chunxing Precision (-16.76%) - Xuanji Information (-15.38%) - Aowei Communication (-14.86%) - Phoenix Optical (-13.15%) [10][22]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Military Industry Index is 70.12, which is in the upper range historically, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to past years [11][26]. Foreign Investment Changes - As of August 16, foreign ownership in the military sector was 2.56%, showing a long-term upward trend in foreign investment [14][39]. Key Investment Themes - The report suggests focusing on two main categories of stocks: 1. Elastic varieties, such as consumable weapons and military electronics, which are expected to benefit from market recovery. 2. Value varieties, including main manufacturers with stable earnings and strong price control capabilities [3][17]. Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to watch include: - High-end combat capabilities: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft, Aero Engine Corporation, AVIC Optoelectronics, and others. - New quality combat capabilities: Aerospace Electronics, Huayin Technology, and others [3][17].

公用事业 2024 年 12 月 30 日 年度长协电价陆续出台 11 月天然 气消费微降 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 1．电力：年度长协电价陆续出台 电价普遍下降 ............... 3 3．一周行情回顾 .............................................................. 8 行业点评 各省陆续出台 2025 年年度电力交易结果。截至 2024 年 12 月 29 日，江苏、广东、 湖北、安徽等省份公示 2025 年电力市场年度签约工作。各省 2025 年长协电价陆续出台， 目前已出炉电力交易结果的省份中，电价普遍处于下降趋势。其中广东 2025 年度交易 成交均价 391.86 元/兆瓦时，同比下降 73.76 元/兆瓦时。而安徽 2025 年度交易成交均 价 412.97 元/兆瓦时，同比下降 23.03 元/兆瓦时。 月度及现货市场重要性或将提升。以江苏省为例，2025 年年度交易总成交电量 3282.2 亿千瓦时（同比下降 8.98%），加权均价 412.25 元/兆瓦时（同比下降 40.49 元/ 兆瓦时）。2024 年 1-1 ...

- 光伏设备 看好 ——光伏行业研究 ⚫ 多晶硅期货上市时间：多晶硅期货将于 2024 年 12 月 26 日在广州期货交易所上市交 易。交易单位为 3 吨 / 手，最小变动价位为 5 元 / 吨，交易代码为 PS 。首批上市交易 合约为 PS2506、PS2507、PS2508、PS2509、PS2510、PS2511 和 PS2512。 行业影响： ⚫ 多晶硅期货有助于形成远期价格信号。多晶硅期货能反映市场对未来供需与价格的预 期，为企业提供远期价格参考。企业可据此调整生产销售策略，合理规划库存，有助于 行业良性发展。 ⚫ 投资分析意见：建议关注硅料成本领先优势明显的企业如通威股份、协鑫科技和大全能 源等。 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 5．核心假定的风险…………………………………………………………………… 10 2. 多晶硅期货解读 . 行 业 及 产 业 电力设备/ 2024 年 12 月 25 日 多晶硅期货上市在即，行业影响几 何？ 多晶硅期货上市信息： ⚫ 交割业务：基准交割品定位于 n 型多晶硅，交割单位为 30 吨 / 手，仓单有效期为 6 个 月，交割区域为内蒙古自 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1] Core Views - The US Maritime Act of 2024 is expected to significantly impact the shipping and shipbuilding industries [1] - The Act aims to revitalize the US merchant fleet through various measures, including establishing a national oversight mechanism and stable funding support [1] - It plans to increase the competitiveness of US-flagged vessels by expanding the fleet from 80 to 250 ships over 10 years and implementing cargo priority policies [1] - The Act includes financial incentives for shipbuilding, with $250 million annually allocated until 2034 for ocean-going vessel construction [1] - It imposes restrictions on Chinese shipping and related industries, including increased taxes for US-flagged vessels repaired in Chinese shipyards [1] Impact Analysis Direct Beneficiaries - US Jones Act fleet companies like Matson are expected to benefit directly [1] - Asian regional shipping companies, including SITC International, T.S. Lines, Jinjiang Shipping, COSCO Shipping, and China Merchants Energy Shipping, are also likely to benefit [1] Indirect Effects - The Act may create a negative sentiment for Chinese and South Korean shipbuilding industries [1] - However, the actual impact on global shipbuilding is expected to be minimal, as the US fleet expansion represents only about 1% of global ship deliveries [1] Company Analysis China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) - Current price: 6.49 yuan [4] - Market capitalization: 52.9 billion yuan [4] - 2024E PE ratio: 11.6 [4] - Forecasted net profit for 2025: 6.087 billion yuan [4] COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) - Current price: 15.05 yuan [4] - Market capitalization: 240.2 billion yuan [4] - 2024E PE ratio: 5.06 [4] - Forecasted net profit for 2025: 23.056 billion yuan [4]

房地产 证 券 研 究 报 告 事件 点评 行业点评 看好 ——住建部工作会议点评 ⚫ 2024 年 12 月 24-25 日，全国住房城乡建设工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2025 年，要持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳。一是着力释放需求。把"四个取消、四个降 低、两个增加"各项存量政策和增量政策坚决落实到位，大力支持刚性和改善性住房需 求。有效发挥住房公积金支持作用。加力实施城中村和危旧房改造，推进货币化安置， 在新增 100 万套的基础上继续扩大城中村改造规模。二是着力改善供给。商品房建设 要严控增量、优化存量、提高质量。以需定购、以需定建，增加保障性住房供给，配售 型保障房要加大力度，再帮助一大批新市民、青年人、农民工等实现安居。 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 财联社 12 月 25 日讯，全国住房城乡建设工作会议 24 日至 25 日在北京召开。会议指出，2025 年，要持续用力推动房地产市 场止跌回稳。 ——房地产市场出现积极变化。着力稳定房地产市场，加快构建房地产发展新模式。一是部门合力打出"四个取消、四个降低、 两个增加"政策组合拳，各地因城施策、一城一策、精准施策，房地产市场呈现止跌回稳势 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [22][33]. Core Insights - The company has maintained a high level of profitability, with a stable expense ratio. In 2023, the sales gross margin reached 32.91%, and the net profit margin was 17.15%. The company has effectively controlled costs, with a stable expense ratio over the years [10][32]. - The company has significantly increased its self-owned brand revenue, which rose from below 10% in 2016 to nearly 50% in 2023. The OBM business revenue CAGR from 2018 to 2023 was 35.4% [22][23]. - The company is expanding its electric tool segment, with a focus on cordless electric tools, which accounted for 25.61% of revenue in 2023, growing by 27.11% year-on-year [23][31]. Company Overview - The company has undergone three development phases since its establishment in 1993, transitioning from ODM to OBM and expanding through acquisitions of high-end overseas brands [22][31]. - The company has a global presence with 23 production bases, including 11 in China, 3 in Southeast Asia, and 6 in Europe, allowing it to respond quickly to market demands [31][34]. - The company’s revenue is primarily derived from exports to Europe and North America, with overseas revenue consistently accounting for over 90% [4][70]. Market Dynamics - The global hardware tools industry is highly concentrated, with the top five companies holding approximately 67% market share. The company has significant room for market share growth [14][70]. - The demand for hardware tools is expected to benefit from a recovery in the real estate market as interest rates decline, which will enhance the overall market environment for the tools industry [33][46]. - The electric tools market is projected to grow significantly, driven by technological advancements and changing consumer preferences, with a notable shift towards cordless tools [23][40]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 22.8 billion to 25.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35% to 50% [17][33]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with total revenue expected to exceed 35% year-on-year in 2024, driven by new product launches and increased market demand [17][33].

本期投资提示： 图 1：11 月空调行业内销同比增长 28.71%（单位：万台，%） -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2023 2024 2023yoy 2024yoy 资料来源：产业在线空调，申万宏源研究 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2023 2024 2023yoy 2024yoy -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第3页 共15页 简单金融 成就梦想 资料来源：产业在线空调，申万宏源研究 资料来源：产业在线空调，申万宏源研究 ...

市场情绪低点，关注1季度业绩调整 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | 证券分析师： | | | | 张慧 A0230524100001 | | | | 闫海 A0230519010004 | | | | 研究支持： 张慧 A0230524100001 联系人： 张慧 A0230524100001 2024.12.24 | | | ◼ 与以往周期不同，过去25年市场分别经历了需求主导运价和供给过剩压制运价阶段，未来将开启供给短缺带来 的运价高波动高弹性周期。 证 券 研 究 报 告 海外航运个股2024年3季报总结 航运板块长逻辑持续强化，周期初期位置，把握低位布局机会 • 上一轮需求推动周期，运价先行于船价；本轮供给推动周期，船价先行于运价。航运造船互相强化。 • 黑天鹅、地缘扰动、贸易格局转变打破贸易网络运转，全球海运运输网络高效状态被破坏，效率损失使得市场更难以预判。 • 2025年VLCC供给 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market performance [47]. Core Insights - BYD's new vehicle cycle and advancements in smart technology are anticipated to be major highlights, with optimistic sales expectations and ongoing supply chain cost reductions [2]. - The decline in lidar costs is expected to provide significant market expansion opportunities for Suoteng Juchuang, with a notable increase in product acceptance and application scenarios [3]. - Tuhu's operational status is steadily improving, with revenue expected to reach 7.13 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 9.3% year-on-year growth [14]. - Songyuan's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 1.8 billion RMB, driven by strong performance from core clients like Geely and Chery, despite a decline in net profit margin in the first three quarters [15]. - Juyi Technology shows promising growth potential in both equipment and electric drive businesses, with expectations of a recovery in gross margin to around 20% [27]. - Xiaopeng Motors is set to launch at least four new models next year, with overall sales expected to exceed 400,000 units, supported by increased production capacity [6][28]. - The overseas expansion of Xiaopeng Motors is noteworthy, with plans to increase overseas stores to 300 and launch high-margin models in international markets [28]. Summary by Sections BYD - The introduction of the e4.0 platform is expected to bring a new wave of technological innovation, making the first half of next year a favorable investment window [2]. Suoteng Juchuang - The company is experiencing significant progress in the lidar sector, with a product priced at 200 USD gaining market attention, leading to a forecasted increase in shipment volume next year [3]. Tuhu - Tuhu's single-store and same-store performance is gradually improving, indicating the start of a positive growth cycle [14]. Songyuan - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.8 billion RMB in 2024, with growth driven by strong sales from key clients, despite facing challenges in profit margins [15]. Juyi Technology - The shift in business strategy towards improving project profitability is expected to enhance the gross margin in the equipment sector [27]. Xiaopeng Motors - The company is set to significantly increase its production capacity and expand its model lineup, with a focus on smart technology and international markets [6][28].