| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------|-----------|---------------------------------------| | 图 | 22：2015 年投资对 GDP 的拉动处低点（%） | 图 23： | 2015 年 GDP "破七"压力较大（ % ） | | 100 | | 16 | 中国 :GDP: 不变价 : 同比 | | 80 | | 14 | | | 60 | | 12 | | | 40 | | 10 | | | 20 | | 8 | | | 0 -20 | | 6 | | | | | 4 | | | | 中国 :GDP 增长贡献率 : 最终消费支出 | 2 | | | | 中国 :GDP 增长贡献率 : 资本形成总额 | 0 | | | | 中国 :GDP 增长贡献率 : 货物和服务净出口 | | | | | | | | 水泥供给端：新产能持续投放，连续多年新增导致供给压力较大。2015 年水泥产能 处于相对高点，2008 年 "四万亿政策"推动 ...

国防军工 2024 年 12 月 30 日 军工关注持续提升，加大关注度布 局 2025 年 ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 0.33%，中证军工龙头指数上涨 0.5%，同期上证综指上涨 0.95%，沪深 300 上涨 1.36%，创业板指下跌 0.22%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创业板 指、跑输沪深 300、跑输上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周国 防军工板块 0.33%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 9 位。2、从我们构建的军 工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参军涨跌幅排名靠后，平均跌幅为 0.25%。3、从个 股表现来看，申万国防军工板块及民参军上市公司名单中，剔除停牌个股后，上周国防 军工板块涨幅排名前五的个股分别为航发科技（17.41%）、宝胜股份（16.7%）、金信诺 （13.68%）、中船科技（8.5%）、中简科技（8.13%）。上周国防军工板块涨幅排名后五 的个股分别为新研股份（-17.26%）、春兴精工（-16.76%）、旋极信息（-15.38%）、奥 维通信（-14.86%）、凤凰光学（-13.15%）。 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 短期军工催化不 ...

公用事业 2024 年 12 月 30 日 年度长协电价陆续出台 11 月天然 气消费微降 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 1．电力：年度长协电价陆续出台 电价普遍下降 ............... 3 3．一周行情回顾 .............................................................. 8 行业点评 各省陆续出台 2025 年年度电力交易结果。截至 2024 年 12 月 29 日，江苏、广东、 湖北、安徽等省份公示 2025 年电力市场年度签约工作。各省 2025 年长协电价陆续出台， 目前已出炉电力交易结果的省份中，电价普遍处于下降趋势。其中广东 2025 年度交易 成交均价 391.86 元/兆瓦时，同比下降 73.76 元/兆瓦时。而安徽 2025 年度交易成交均 价 412.97 元/兆瓦时，同比下降 23.03 元/兆瓦时。 月度及现货市场重要性或将提升。以江苏省为例，2025 年年度交易总成交电量 3282.2 亿千瓦时（同比下降 8.98%），加权均价 412.25 元/兆瓦时（同比下降 40.49 元/ 兆瓦时）。2024 年 1-1 ...

- 光伏设备 看好 ——光伏行业研究 ⚫ 多晶硅期货上市时间：多晶硅期货将于 2024 年 12 月 26 日在广州期货交易所上市交 易。交易单位为 3 吨 / 手，最小变动价位为 5 元 / 吨，交易代码为 PS 。首批上市交易 合约为 PS2506、PS2507、PS2508、PS2509、PS2510、PS2511 和 PS2512。 行业影响： ⚫ 多晶硅期货有助于形成远期价格信号。多晶硅期货能反映市场对未来供需与价格的预 期，为企业提供远期价格参考。企业可据此调整生产销售策略，合理规划库存，有助于 行业良性发展。 ⚫ 投资分析意见：建议关注硅料成本领先优势明显的企业如通威股份、协鑫科技和大全能 源等。 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 5．核心假定的风险…………………………………………………………………… 10 2. 多晶硅期货解读 . 行 业 及 产 业 电力设备/ 2024 年 12 月 25 日 多晶硅期货上市在即，行业影响几 何？ 多晶硅期货上市信息： ⚫ 交割业务：基准交割品定位于 n 型多晶硅，交割单位为 30 吨 / 手，仓单有效期为 6 个 月，交割区域为内蒙古自 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1] Core Views - The US Maritime Act of 2024 is expected to significantly impact the shipping and shipbuilding industries [1] - The Act aims to revitalize the US merchant fleet through various measures, including establishing a national oversight mechanism and stable funding support [1] - It plans to increase the competitiveness of US-flagged vessels by expanding the fleet from 80 to 250 ships over 10 years and implementing cargo priority policies [1] - The Act includes financial incentives for shipbuilding, with $250 million annually allocated until 2034 for ocean-going vessel construction [1] - It imposes restrictions on Chinese shipping and related industries, including increased taxes for US-flagged vessels repaired in Chinese shipyards [1] Impact Analysis Direct Beneficiaries - US Jones Act fleet companies like Matson are expected to benefit directly [1] - Asian regional shipping companies, including SITC International, T.S. Lines, Jinjiang Shipping, COSCO Shipping, and China Merchants Energy Shipping, are also likely to benefit [1] Indirect Effects - The Act may create a negative sentiment for Chinese and South Korean shipbuilding industries [1] - However, the actual impact on global shipbuilding is expected to be minimal, as the US fleet expansion represents only about 1% of global ship deliveries [1] Company Analysis China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) - Current price: 6.49 yuan [4] - Market capitalization: 52.9 billion yuan [4] - 2024E PE ratio: 11.6 [4] - Forecasted net profit for 2025: 6.087 billion yuan [4] COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) - Current price: 15.05 yuan [4] - Market capitalization: 240.2 billion yuan [4] - 2024E PE ratio: 5.06 [4] - Forecasted net profit for 2025: 23.056 billion yuan [4]

房地产 证 券 研 究 报 告 事件 点评 行业点评 看好 ——住建部工作会议点评 ⚫ 2024 年 12 月 24-25 日，全国住房城乡建设工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2025 年，要持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳。一是着力释放需求。把"四个取消、四个降 低、两个增加"各项存量政策和增量政策坚决落实到位，大力支持刚性和改善性住房需 求。有效发挥住房公积金支持作用。加力实施城中村和危旧房改造，推进货币化安置， 在新增 100 万套的基础上继续扩大城中村改造规模。二是着力改善供给。商品房建设 要严控增量、优化存量、提高质量。以需定购、以需定建，增加保障性住房供给，配售 型保障房要加大力度，再帮助一大批新市民、青年人、农民工等实现安居。 行 业 研 究/ 行 业 点 评 财联社 12 月 25 日讯，全国住房城乡建设工作会议 24 日至 25 日在北京召开。会议指出，2025 年，要持续用力推动房地产市 场止跌回稳。 ——房地产市场出现积极变化。着力稳定房地产市场，加快构建房地产发展新模式。一是部门合力打出"四个取消、四个降低、 两个增加"政策组合拳，各地因城施策、一城一策、精准施策，房地产市场呈现止跌回稳势 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [22][33]. Core Insights - The company has maintained a high level of profitability, with a stable expense ratio. In 2023, the sales gross margin reached 32.91%, and the net profit margin was 17.15%. The company has effectively controlled costs, with a stable expense ratio over the years [10][32]. - The company has significantly increased its self-owned brand revenue, which rose from below 10% in 2016 to nearly 50% in 2023. The OBM business revenue CAGR from 2018 to 2023 was 35.4% [22][23]. - The company is expanding its electric tool segment, with a focus on cordless electric tools, which accounted for 25.61% of revenue in 2023, growing by 27.11% year-on-year [23][31]. Company Overview - The company has undergone three development phases since its establishment in 1993, transitioning from ODM to OBM and expanding through acquisitions of high-end overseas brands [22][31]. - The company has a global presence with 23 production bases, including 11 in China, 3 in Southeast Asia, and 6 in Europe, allowing it to respond quickly to market demands [31][34]. - The company’s revenue is primarily derived from exports to Europe and North America, with overseas revenue consistently accounting for over 90% [4][70]. Market Dynamics - The global hardware tools industry is highly concentrated, with the top five companies holding approximately 67% market share. The company has significant room for market share growth [14][70]. - The demand for hardware tools is expected to benefit from a recovery in the real estate market as interest rates decline, which will enhance the overall market environment for the tools industry [33][46]. - The electric tools market is projected to grow significantly, driven by technological advancements and changing consumer preferences, with a notable shift towards cordless tools [23][40]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 22.8 billion to 25.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35% to 50% [17][33]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with total revenue expected to exceed 35% year-on-year in 2024, driven by new product launches and increased market demand [17][33].

本期投资提示： 图 1：11 月空调行业内销同比增长 28.71%（单位：万台，%） -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2023 2024 2023yoy 2024yoy 资料来源：产业在线空调，申万宏源研究 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2023 2024 2023yoy 2024yoy -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第3页 共15页 简单金融 成就梦想 资料来源：产业在线空调，申万宏源研究 资料来源：产业在线空调，申万宏源研究 ...

市场情绪低点，关注1季度业绩调整 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | 证券分析师： | | | | 张慧 A0230524100001 | | | | 闫海 A0230519010004 | | | | 研究支持： 张慧 A0230524100001 联系人： 张慧 A0230524100001 2024.12.24 | | | ◼ 与以往周期不同，过去25年市场分别经历了需求主导运价和供给过剩压制运价阶段，未来将开启供给短缺带来 的运价高波动高弹性周期。 证 券 研 究 报 告 海外航运个股2024年3季报总结 航运板块长逻辑持续强化，周期初期位置，把握低位布局机会 • 上一轮需求推动周期，运价先行于船价；本轮供给推动周期，船价先行于运价。航运造船互相强化。 • 黑天鹅、地缘扰动、贸易格局转变打破贸易网络运转，全球海运运输网络高效状态被破坏，效率损失使得市场更难以预判。 • 2025年VLCC供给 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market performance [47]. Core Insights - BYD's new vehicle cycle and advancements in smart technology are anticipated to be major highlights, with optimistic sales expectations and ongoing supply chain cost reductions [2]. - The decline in lidar costs is expected to provide significant market expansion opportunities for Suoteng Juchuang, with a notable increase in product acceptance and application scenarios [3]. - Tuhu's operational status is steadily improving, with revenue expected to reach 7.13 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 9.3% year-on-year growth [14]. - Songyuan's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 1.8 billion RMB, driven by strong performance from core clients like Geely and Chery, despite a decline in net profit margin in the first three quarters [15]. - Juyi Technology shows promising growth potential in both equipment and electric drive businesses, with expectations of a recovery in gross margin to around 20% [27]. - Xiaopeng Motors is set to launch at least four new models next year, with overall sales expected to exceed 400,000 units, supported by increased production capacity [6][28]. - The overseas expansion of Xiaopeng Motors is noteworthy, with plans to increase overseas stores to 300 and launch high-margin models in international markets [28]. Summary by Sections BYD - The introduction of the e4.0 platform is expected to bring a new wave of technological innovation, making the first half of next year a favorable investment window [2]. Suoteng Juchuang - The company is experiencing significant progress in the lidar sector, with a product priced at 200 USD gaining market attention, leading to a forecasted increase in shipment volume next year [3]. Tuhu - Tuhu's single-store and same-store performance is gradually improving, indicating the start of a positive growth cycle [14]. Songyuan - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.8 billion RMB in 2024, with growth driven by strong sales from key clients, despite facing challenges in profit margins [15]. Juyi Technology - The shift in business strategy towards improving project profitability is expected to enhance the gross margin in the equipment sector [27]. Xiaopeng Motors - The company is set to significantly increase its production capacity and expand its model lineup, with a focus on smart technology and international markets [6][28].