Economic Growth and Industrial Performance - In August, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The profit growth of industrial enterprises in August was -17.8%, a decline of 21.9 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by high temperature and seasonal factors[10] - Fixed asset investment from January to August increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with real estate investment down by 10.2%[13] Trade and Consumption Trends - In August, China's exports amounted to $308.65 billion, with a growth rate of 8.7%, while imports grew only by 0.5%, leading to a trade surplus of $91.02 billion[18] - Retail sales of consumer goods in August increased by 2.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from July[15] - The share of county and rural retail sales in total retail sales rose to 38%, up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous year[15] Price Indices and Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with food prices increasing by 2.8%[22] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, marking the 23rd consecutive month of negative growth for production materials[26] Financial and Policy Environment - The total social financing in August increased by 30.31 billion yuan, but the year-on-year growth rate fell to 8.1%[33] - The central bank's net cash withdrawal in the first nine months of the year reached 12,809 billion yuan, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[37] - Government budget revenue from January to August was 147,776 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.6%[40]

Employment Data - In September, the U.S. added 254,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 144,000, marking the largest increase since March[1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, continuing a two-month downward trend[8] - The broader U6 unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 7.7%[8] Wage Growth - Year-on-year wage growth in September rose to 4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points[10] - Month-on-month wage growth was 0.4%, slightly down from the previous value[10] Economic Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November is now at 86.6%, with a 13.4% chance of no cut[13] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for September was recorded at 47.2%, indicating continued contraction for six months[15] - The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9%, reflecting expansion for three consecutive months[17] International Trade - South Korea's exports grew by 7.5% year-on-year in September, while imports increased by 2%, resulting in a trade surplus of approximately $6.7 billion[21] - Semiconductor exports from South Korea maintained over 25% growth but showed a decline of 16 percentage points compared to the previous period[21] Market Sentiment - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. improved from -0.8 to 14.3, indicating a positive shift in economic expectations[23]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8% in September from 49.1% in August, indicating an improvement in economic sentiment[1] - New orders index rose by 1 percentage point to 49.9%, ending a five-month decline[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI reached 53.0%, up 1.3 percentage points, while equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0%, up 0.8 percentage points[4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining at the critical threshold[1] - Construction PMI slightly increased to 50.7%, while service sector PMI decreased to 49.9%[11] - New orders index for non-manufacturing dropped to 44.2%, down 2.1 percentage points from August[11] Group 3: Economic Risks and Trends - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, slow global economic recovery, and insufficient effective domestic demand[1] - The production index in manufacturing rose to 51.2%, indicating a positive outlook for production activities[4] - Employment index in non-manufacturing decreased to 44.7%, reflecting a continuous decline in hiring sentiment[11]

Profit Growth Trends - From January to August 2024, the cumulative year-on-year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises fell to 0.5%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - In August 2024, the year-on-year profit growth rate for industrial enterprises was -17.8%, down 21.9 percentage points from July[4] - Among 41 major industrial categories, 29 reported year-on-year profit growth, indicating over 70% of industries experienced positive growth[4] Sector Performance - Foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan enterprises saw profit growth rates of 6.9% and 2.6%, respectively, while state-owned and joint-stock enterprises recorded declines of 1.3%[4] - The mining sector's profit decline narrowed to -9.2%, while manufacturing and utilities saw profit growth rates of 1.1% and 14.7%, respectively[4] - The equipment manufacturing sector benefited from strong industrial exports, with a profit growth rate of 3.2% from January to August 2024[4] Revenue and Inventory Insights - The cumulative year-on-year revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises was 2.4%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous period[6] - As of the end of August, the inventory of finished industrial products grew by 5.1% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[6] Financial Health Indicators - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises remained at 57.6% for three consecutive months, indicating a stable financial position[6] - Accounts receivable increased by 8.4% year-on-year, with the average collection period extending to 66.8 days, reflecting a historically high level[6] Risk Factors - Key risks include insufficient effective domestic demand, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and potential delays in policy implementation[7]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - The US PCE price index increased by 2.2% year-on-year in August, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, marking the lowest level since February 2021[5] - Core PCE rose by 2.7% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the lowest since May this year[5] - Personal consumption expenditures and personal income both grew by 0.2% month-on-month in August, the lowest since January 2024 and July 2023, respectively[6] Group 2: Housing Market Trends - Existing home sales in the US totaled 3.86 million units in August, down 4.22% year-on-year and 2.53% month-on-month; new home sales were 716,000 units, up 9.82% year-on-year but down 4.66% month-on-month[9] - The median sales price of existing homes rose by 3.1% year-on-year to $416,700, while the median price of new homes fell by 4.6% year-on-year to $420,600, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline[9] - The MBA refinancing index increased by 20.3% to 1132.90, the highest level since April 2022, indicating a recovery in housing demand[9] Group 3: Market Expectations and Commodity Prices - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rose from -24.2 at the end of August to -6.1 in September, an increase of nearly 75%[12] - Precious metals prices continued to rise, with gold and silver up by 1.3% in the week of September 23-27, 2024, due to anticipated interest rate cuts[13] - Oil prices fell by 2.3% due to supply-side disruptions, while agricultural prices saw significant increases, with soybeans, corn, and wheat rising by 5.3%, 3.9%, and 2.0%, respectively[13]

Policy and Economic Outlook - The Chinese government is increasing fiscal and monetary policy counter-cyclical adjustments to support economic growth[1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately CNY 1 trillion into the financial market[12] - The Swiss National Bank has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1%, marking the third rate cut this year[1] Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly, returning to above 3000 points due to positive policy signals[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continued to rise, indicating improved shipping demand, with a week-on-week increase of 6.73%[8] Commodity and Real Estate Trends - Brent crude oil prices fell to USD 71.98 per barrel, down 3.37% week-on-week and 24.48% year-on-year[8] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities surged by 77.60% week-on-week, although it remains down 23.87% year-on-year[8] - The average price of rebar increased to CNY 3,552 per ton, reflecting a 4.56% week-on-week rise[18] Inflation and Currency - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the USD were recorded at 7.01 and 6.98, respectively, indicating a slight depreciation[1] - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to CNY 26.13 per kilogram, down 1.99% week-on-week[8] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key indicators to watch this week include China's September manufacturing PMI and the U.S. September unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [3]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector showed a strong performance with a weekly increase of approximately 26.1%, ranking first among primary sub-industries [2][7]. - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry has recovered but remains at historically low levels [12]. Market Review - From September 23 to September 27, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a rise of about 15.7%, with a total weekly trading volume of approximately 1,649.29 billion yuan. The food and beverage sector's trading volume was around 231.66 billion yuan [2][7]. - The sub-industry performance included significant gains in liquor and dairy products, with liquor II and dairy products leading with increases of 29.5% and 21.2%, respectively [9]. High-Frequency Data Tracking - Retail sales in August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with urban retail sales up by 1.8% and rural retail sales up by 3.9% [16]. - The Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index rose to -35.4 on September 27, indicating a slight recovery [18]. - August production data revealed a decline in liquor production by 10.2% year-on-year, while fresh milk prices continued to decrease, down 15.8% year-on-year [21][23]. Industry News and Company Announcements - Water Weaving announced a price increase of 10 yuan per bottle for its premium liquor starting October 1 [30]. - Eight Chinese liquor brands made it to the "Asia's 500 Most Valuable Brands" list, showcasing the growing influence of Chinese food and beverage brands [30]. - The company Water Weaving plans to cancel 858,200 shares from its 2021 buyback, reducing its registered capital accordingly [31].

证券研究报告—宏观研究周报 撰写日期：2024 年 09 月 24 日 人民币汇率偏强运行 宏观经济高频数据周报（2024 年 9 月 16 日-9 月 22 日） 本报告导读： 9 月 18 日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究促进创业 投资发展的有关举措。会议指出，要健全资本市场功能，进一步激发创业投 资市场活力。9 月 20 日，中国人民银行公布 1 年期 LPR 为 3.35%，5 年期以 上 LPR 为 3.85%，与上月持平。海外方面，当地时间 9 月 18 日，美联储将 联邦基金利率下调 50BP 至 4.75%~5.00%，这是美联储四年来首次降息。随 着美国降息，全球多地掀起一轮"降息潮"。中国香港金管局、南非央行、 卡塔尔央行、巴林央行、阿联酋央行及科威特央行均接连降息。但在全球掀 起"降息潮"的背景下，有些国家或按兵不动，有些或逆势而行。当地时间 9 月 19 日，英国央行宣布将基准利率维持在 5%不变，符合市场预期。同时， 英国央行维持缩表步伐，宣布将在未来 12 个月内削减 1000 亿英镑的债券 购买量。当地时间 9 月 20 日，日本央行公布利率决议，政策利率维持在 0 ...

Price Performance - As of September 27, 2024, Shanghai gold price closed at 597.16 CNY/gram, with a weekly increase of 1.51%[4] - COMEX gold closed at 2649.9 USD/ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.07%[4] - London spot gold closed at 2661.85 USD/ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.15%[4] Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to continue high-level fluctuations due to the initiation of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, providing support for gold prices[1] - Long-term investment opportunities in gold remain favorable, with expectations of a rising price center driven by geopolitical risks and declining long-term U.S. Treasury yields[1] Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November 2024 are approximately 47.4%, while a 50 basis point cut has a probability of 52.6%[10] - The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) recorded 16.96 points, an increase of 0.81 from the previous week, indicating rising market anxiety[10] ETF Holdings - As of September 27, 2024, SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.45 tons to approximately 871.94 tons, while iShares Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.38 tons to approximately 371.36 tons[6] Futures and Inventory - As of September 24, 2024, CFTC COMEX non-commercial net long positions in gold increased by 5,324 contracts to 387,572 contracts[14] - COMEX gold inventory increased by 279,222.44 ounces to 17.1773 million ounces as of September 27, 2024[14]

Group 1: Export Trends - China's export amount increased by $892.3 billion and trade surplus by $471.2 billion from 2018 to 2023[1] - Exports to ASEAN and emerging economies have significantly increased, with ASEAN becoming China's largest trading partner, accounting for over 16% of total exports[1] - The share of exports to developed economies (US and EU) decreased from approximately 38% in 2018 to about 32% in 2024, a decline of nearly 6 percentage points[1] Group 2: Product Structure Changes - High-end manufacturing products, particularly electromechanical products, accounted for nearly 42% of China's exports in 2023, with a significant increase of $313.9 billion from 2018 to 2023[1] - Exports of low-value-added products like textiles have decreased in growth, indicating a shift towards higher value-added industries[1] - The export structure is diversifying, with significant growth in high-tech products such as electric vehicles and lithium batteries, which contributed $136.4 billion to export growth[1] Group 3: Trade Partner Dynamics - The trade surplus with the US increased by only $12.8 billion from 2018 to 2023, while the US trade deficit grew by $202.8 billion during the same period[1] - Exports to Latin America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, showed a strong increase in high-end manufacturing and chemical products, reflecting rising consumption in these regions[1] - The trade dynamics with Middle Eastern countries also indicate a strong demand for high-end manufacturing products, with exports to this region increasing by $71.5 billion[1] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The report highlights potential risks including slower global economic recovery and rising trade protectionism, which could impact future export growth[2] - Despite potential downturns in demand from developed economies, the resilience of emerging markets is expected to support China's export growth moving forward[2]