[Table_MeetContent] 【市场回顾】 分析师 陈雯 执业证书编号 S0270519060001 万联证券研究所 www.wlzq.cn 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 万千财富，与您相连 施工销售等指标仍承压，国内贷款单月正增 5 月社零同比+3.7%，多数品类增速环比回升 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------|----------|---------| | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 收盘 | | 涨跌幅% | | 上证指数 | 3,018.05 | -0.40% | | 深证成指 | 9,219.07 | -1.07% | | 沪深 300 | 3,528.75 | -0.47% | | 科创 50 | 751.69 | -0.69% | | 创业板指 | 1,788.50 | -1.26% | | 上证 50 | 2,413.97 | -0.06% | | 上证 180 | 7,735.78 | -0.21% | ...

[Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_Summary] 概览 【市场回顾】 周二 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.48%，深成指收 涨 0.4%，创业板指收涨 0.29%。沪深两市成交额 7368.74 亿元，北向 资金净流出 23.12 亿元。申万行业方面，通信、计算机、汽车领涨， 食品饮料、医药生物、农林牧渔领跌；概念板块方面，胎压监测、PEEK 材料、车联网领涨，养鸡、猪肉、CRO 概念领跌。港股方面，恒生指 数收跌 0.11%，恒生科技指数收跌 0.33%；海外方面，美国三大指数 集体收涨，道指收涨 0.15%，标普 500 收涨 0.25%，纳指收涨 0.03%。 【重要新闻】 【推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策体系已基本构建完成】 6 月 18 日，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、委新闻发言人李超 表示，由国家发展改革委牵头，21 家部门和单位参与的"推动大规模 设备更新和消费品以旧换新部际联席会议制度"已正式建立。截至目 前，推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的政策体系已基本构建完 成。同时，资金支持正逐步落实。财政部拨付中央财政投资 64.4 亿 元支持汽车 ...

[Table_Authors] 分析师: 宫慧菁 执业证书编号： S0270524010001 电话： 020-32255208 邮箱： gonghj@wlzq.com.cn [Table_ReportType] ——2024 年中期策略投资报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2024 年 06 月 18 日 ⚫ 2024 上半年 A 股市场回顾：A 股年初下行后明显回升，4 月 以来窄幅震荡。5 月至今 A 股量价有所回落，主要宽幅指数 箱体震荡。从风格看，各风格板块较 2023 下半年均实现不 同程度的回升，其中稳定、金融和周期风格指数由跌转涨。 分行业看，行业自身防御属性较强与红利低波策略受追捧 下，银行业涨幅居行业首位。 ⚫ A 股市场流动性处于改善通道中：今年 1-2 月 A 股市场流 动性转弱，资金呈流出趋势，多数板块出现下跌。3 月以来， 随着金融监管总局、证监会、交易所等强调建设以投资者 为本的资本市场，着力稳定投资者预期，鼓励中长期资金 加配权益市场，市场逐步回暖，资金净流出情况改善。随着 国内经济增速有望回升、企业盈利逐步改善，同时系列新 政策增强市场信心，长线资金加配 A 股的意 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [8]. Core Insights - TSMC plans to raise prices for advanced packaging, with an estimated increase of 10%-20% in advanced packaging quotes by 2025 due to supply-demand imbalance [1]. - The advanced packaging market is projected to grow rapidly, with the global market size expected to increase from $37.8 billion in 2023 to $69.5 billion by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7% [2]. - TSMC aims to expand its CoWoS capacity at a CAGR of over 60% until 2026, potentially increasing capacity to four times the 2023 level, while SoIC capacity is expected to grow at a 100% CAGR, reaching six times the 2023 level by the end of 2026 [2]. - The demand for advanced packaging is driven by the rise of AI accelerator hardware, with major clients like NVIDIA accounting for about half of TSMC's advanced packaging capacity [2]. - The investment from major players in the advanced packaging sector is expected to reach approximately $11.5 billion in 2024 [2]. Summary by Sections Advanced Packaging Demand - The demand for advanced packaging is significantly driven by the launch of AI models with trillions of parameters, leading to increased hardware requirements [2]. - TSMC's advanced packaging clients include major companies such as AMD, Broadcom, Amazon, and Marvell, indicating a strong market demand [2]. Market Growth and Investment - The advanced packaging market is experiencing robust growth due to strong demand from mobile, consumer electronics, telecommunications, infrastructure, and automotive sectors [2]. - Major companies are expected to continue investing heavily in advanced packaging technologies, with TSMC, Intel, Samsung, and others leading the charge [2]. Chiplet Technology - Chiplet technology is seen as a key solution for advancing heterogeneous integration in packaging, allowing for modular production and improved performance [2]. - This technology is expected to provide a cost-effective solution for high-performance chips in the context of limited external conditions for developing advanced processes domestically [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional packaging manufacturers that are upgrading their technologies and leading companies in the Chiplet technology space [3].

[Table_MeetReportDate] 2024 年 06 月 18 日 星期二 【市场回顾】 周一 A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.55%，深成指收 涨 0.31%，创业板指收涨 0.83%。沪深两市成交额 7514.36 亿元，北 向资金净流出 33.01 亿元。申万行业方面，电子、电力设备、汽车领 涨，煤炭、钢铁、房地产领跌；概念板块方面，AI 手机、PCB 概念、 AI PC 领涨，租售同权、特色小镇、煤炭概念领跌。港股方面，恒生 指数收跌 0.03%，恒生科技指数收涨 0.05%；海外方面，美国三大指 数集体收涨，道指收涨 0.49%，标普 500 收涨 0.77%，纳指收涨 0.95%。 【重要新闻】 【国家统计局发布 5 月国民经济数据】中国 5 月份国民经济延续回 升向好态势，运行总体平稳。国家统计局发布数据显示，5 月份规模 以上工业增加值同比增长 5.6%，环比增长 0.30%；社会消费品零售总 额 39211 亿元，同比增长 3.7%，比 4 月加快 1.4 个百分点，环比增 长 0.51%。1-5 月份，中国固定资产投资（不含农户）188006 亿元， 同比增长 ...

Market Indicators - During the week of June 11 to June 14, major A-share indices showed mixed performance, with the CSI 300 index experiencing the largest decline of 0.91%, followed by the Shanghai Composite Index at -0.61%. The STAR 50 and ChiNext indices saw increases of 2.21% and 0.58% respectively [5][33]. - The average daily trading volume for the two markets was 744.79 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.07%. The electronics sector was the most active, with a trading volume of 573.13 billion yuan, followed by power equipment and pharmaceutical sectors at 220.55 billion yuan and 204.00 billion yuan respectively [8][18]. Liquidity Indicators - As of June 14, the net inflow of funds into the A-share market was 620.26 billion yuan, with a large single net amount (BBD) of -32.44 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total buying amount of 167.20 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 17.14 billion yuan, marking a significant week-on-week decrease of 423.07% [39][23]. Valuation Levels - As of June 14, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai 50 index was at a historical percentile of approximately 60.70% since 2010. Among the major indices, only six sectors had PE ratios exceeding the historical 50th percentile [44][47]. - The current valuation levels for various sectors indicate that the non-bank financial sector (55.46%), coal (60.20%), and basic chemicals (63.40%) are above the historical 50th percentile, while sectors like social services, power equipment, and computer industries are below the historical 10th percentile [47][48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that are aligned with the development of new productive forces, equipment upgrades, and the replacement of consumer goods. Additionally, it highlights that growth sectors are showing improved conditions, while defensive configurations in dividend styles continue to attract capital [50].

[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|银行 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 强于大市 研 财政发力 存款增速环比回升 0.1% (维持) 究 [Table_ReportType] [Table_ReportDate] ——银行行业月报 2024年06月17日 [事Ta件ble：_S ummary] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 2024年6月14日，中国人民银行发布2024年5月金融统计数据 报告、社融存量以及增量统计数据报告。 银行 沪深300 20% 15% 10% 投资要点： 5% 行 0% 5月社融存量增速8.4%，增速环比回升0.1%：5月，社融新增2.07 -5% 业 -10% 万亿元，同比多增。其中企业债融资和政府债融资是主要拉动项。 -15% 月 -20% 存量规模391.9万亿元，同比增速8.4%，增速环比回升0.1%，符 -25% 报 合市场预期，政府债发行提速，支撑社融增速小幅回升。 数据来源：聚源，万联证券研究所 信贷增长延续弱势：5月，新增人民币贷款9500亿元，同比少增 [相Ta关ble研_R ...

[Table_RightTitle] 证券研究报告|社会服务 行 [Table_Title] [Table_IndustryRank] 业 强于大市 (维持) 研 深巷烟火藏故事，万国风华汇一堂 究 [Table_ReportTyp—e] —2024年中期社会服务行业投资策略报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年06月14日 [行Ta业ble核_S心um观m点ar：y] [行Ta业ble相_C对ha沪rt] 深 300 指数表现 2024年一季度，社会服务板块业绩增长亮眼，领跑市场，但行情整体承 社会服务 沪深300 压，板块面临外部经济不确定性增加与内部需求疲软的双重挑战。在消费 10% 5% 行 分层加剧，高性价比与悦己、品质型消费观并存以及内容形式多样、鼓励 0% -5% 业 用户自发创造和分享的新媒体平台迅猛发展的大背景下，旅游底层逻辑正 -10% -15% 投 在面临从资源服务延伸到内容服务，由“权威推荐”转向“真实分享”， -20% -25% -30% 由“热门旅游城市”转向“小众目的地”，由“游山玩水”转向“深度体 资 -35% -40% 验”的更新迭代。一方面，小众目的地逐渐兴 ...

[Table_Title] 万联晨会 核心观点 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|------------------------|--------| | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] 国内市场表现 | \n指数名称 收盘 涨跌幅 | % | | 上证指数 | 3,032.63 | 0.12% | | 深证成指 | 9,252.25 | 0.50% | | 沪深 300 | 3,541.53 | 0.44% | | 科创 50 | 754.26 | -0.62% | | 创业板指 | 1,791.36 | 0.76% | | 上证 50 | 2,426.51 | 0.60% | | 上证 180 | 7,765.77 | 0.37% | | 上证基金 | 5,997.17 | 0.28% | | | | | [Table_MeetContact] 主持人: 叶柏良 $$start$$ 【重要新闻】 深巷烟火藏故事，万国风华汇一堂 万千财富，与您相连 万千财富，与您相连 [Table_AdressInfo ...

Email: liying1@wlzq.com.cn 进一步推动 AI 赋能千行百业，加快形成新质生产力，提升劳动生产率，供给智能经济 增长动能。 l 全面夯实算力底座，拓展垂直应用场景：1）算力底座方面，《实施意见》中对于 算力底座更强调底层芯片与通用大模型的"研发"与"探索"，以打造通用人工智能算 力生态，而《措施》则要求全面夯实人工智能产业底座，具体任务包括从芯片、软件到 算法产业矩阵全方位的迭代升级，并提出适度超前部署算力网络建设，意味着智能算力 设施的建设从底层技术探索逐步进入规模扩张阶段，智算覆盖能力有望显著提升，为 AI 赋能千行百业提供强大算力底座支持。2）应用场景方面，《实施意见》侧重于构建通用 AI 平台，《措施》则进一步明确 AI 赋能千行百业的具体路径与应用场景，包括在手机、 计算机、家居、机器人等 8 大门类，打造 100 款以上大规模使用的智能终端产品，以及 聚焦制造、教育、养老等领域，打造 500 个以上应用场景，提升各行各业劳动生产率。 l 投资建议：广东省推动 AI 赋能千行百业，旨在加快智能经济发展。我们建议关注 国内 AI 产业链加速建设背景下，数据要素产业链、国产算力& ...