市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 27 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 纺织服饰：行业整体盈利状况边际改善，纺织制造板块预盈率较高 传媒：2026 年春节档票房回落，档期内马太效应加剧 | [Table_InnerMarketIndex] | 国内市场表现 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | 上证指数 | 4,146.63 | -0.01% | | 深证成指 | 14,503.79 | 0.19% | | 沪深 300 | 4,726.87 | -0.19% | | 科创 50 | 1,485.86 | 0.85% | | 创业板指 | 3,344.98 | -0.29% | | 上证 50 | 3,035.07 | -0.65% | | 上证 180 | 10,389.00 | -0.16% | | 上证基金 | 7,226.58 | -0.33% | | 3071 国债指数 | 225.82 | -0.04% | 【市场回顾】周四 ...

证券研究报告|纺织服饰 [Table_Title] 行业整体盈利状况边际改善，纺织制造板块 预盈率较高 [Table_ReportType] ——纺织服饰行业 2025 年业绩预告综述[Table_ReportDate] [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 纺服行业盈利状况边际改善，2025年预盈率60%。截至2026年2月13日， 纺织服饰行业共计107家A股公司，已有55家发布业绩预告，行业披露率 为51%，在消费八大行业中位列第3。在所有已发布业绩预告的公司中， 2025年纺织服饰行业预计盈利的公司数量为33家，行业预盈率60%，在 消费八大行业中排行第3。分具体业绩预告类型来看，2025年纺织服饰 行业亏损上市公司占比为40%，同比下降19个pct，其中，续亏的上市公 司占比由2024年的30%小幅上升至33%，但首次亏损的公司占比由28%大 幅下降至7%。此外，扭亏为盈的公司占比由4%大幅上升至20%，业绩预 增的公司占比由15%上升至22%，行业整体盈利状况呈现边际改善态势。 各子板块亏损上市公司占比均有所下滑，纺织制造板块预盈率较高。 从披露率来看：饰品板块披露率最高，为73%，服装家纺 ...

⚫ 春节档供给端持续加码，需求端表现疲软。2026年档期总场次达435.1 万场，创历史新高，供给端持续加码；但观影人次同比大幅回落至 1.2 亿，较 2025 年的 1.9 亿显著下滑，需求端疲软特征凸显；平均票价 降至 47.8 元，为近六年最低，票价让利未能有效提振观影需求；档期 整体上座率仅为 22.2%，远低于近年同期水平，新增场次未有效转化 为票房，市场出现"供过于求"的结构性失衡，整体表现不及预期。 ⚫ 档期马太效应加剧，《飞驰人生 3》断层式领跑。2026 年春节档打破 了自 2018 年以来延续的"多雄争霸"的市场结构，呈现出极致分化 态势，马太效应显著加剧，这一格局的核心背景在于当前电影行业正 处于阶段性片荒周期，新片储备不足，2026 年春节档上映影片整体竞 争力显著弱于往年，头部影片也有所匮乏。从梯队表现看，《飞驰人 生 3》以 29.3 亿元，超 50%的票房贡献度形成断层式领跑，成为档期 内第一梯队；第二梯队的中部影片表现明显偏弱，票房成绩不及往年 同期的中部阵营水准，《惊蛰无声》与《镖人：风起大漠》竞争胶着 但均未突破 10 亿票房，《熊出没·年年有熊》则回归系列平均水平。 从影 ...

货币增速整体改善 强于大市(维持) [Table_ReportType] ——银行行业月报[Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [事件Table_Summary] ： 2026 年 2 月 13 日，央行发布《2026 年 1 月金融统计数据报 告》。 投资要点： 1 月社融存量同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%：1 月，社融新 增 7.22 万亿元，同比多增 0.17 万亿元，主要拖累项是新增贷款。 当月人民币贷款新增 4.9 万亿元，同比少增 0.32 万亿元；政府债 净融资规模为 0.98 万亿元，同比多增 0.28 万亿元。截至 1 月末， 社融存量规模 449.11 万亿元，同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%。 1 月对公信贷同比少增：1 月，贷款增加 4.71 万亿元，同比少增 0.42 万亿元。截至 1 月末，金融机构人民币贷款余额 276.6 万亿 元，同比增长 6.1%，环比下降 0.2%。根据《金融时报》数据，人 民币贷款还原政府债置换因素后，人民币贷款同比增速约为 6.7%。居民端，1 月增加 4565 亿元，同比多增，其中，短期贷款 增 ...

旅游市场高位运行，消费潜力有效释放 [Table_ReportType] ——旅游行业 2026 年春节黄金周数据快评报告[Table_ReportDate] [事件Table_Summary] ： 2 月 24 日，文旅部公布 2026 年春节黄金周旅游数据。经文旅部数 据中心测算，春节假日 9 天，全国国内出游 5.96 亿人次，国内出 游总花费 8034.83 亿元，人均花费 1348.13 元，与去年假期基本持 平。 投资要点： 超长假期推动多段出行，旅游市场百花齐放。今年春节假期是首个 为期 9 天的超长假期，旅客出游呈现出显著的分段式与错峰特征。 根据广之旅发布的报告，假期前后旅游市场呈现多层次并行趋势： 节前出境长线游率先启动，临近假期出境短线游升温，假期初期国 内游集中释放，假期尾段周边游形成补位高峰。各类旅游产品多点 开花，推动整体出行市场保持较高景气度。国内游方面，假期日均 出游 6622.22 万人次，较去年假期增长 5.74%；日均花费 892.76 亿元，较去年假期增长 5.50%，在国内游高位运行背景下保持平稳 增长。跨境游方面，出入境客流增速持续提升，春节假期共计 1779.6 ...

货币增速整体改善 强于大市(维持) [Table_ReportType] ——银行行业月报[Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [事件Table_Summary] ： 2026 年 2 月 13 日，央行发布《2026 年 1 月金融统计数据报 告》。 投资要点： 1 月社融存量同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%：1 月，社融新 增 7.22 万亿元，同比多增 0.17 万亿元，主要拖累项是新增贷款。 当月人民币贷款新增 4.9 万亿元，同比少增 0.32 万亿元；政府债 净融资规模为 0.98 万亿元，同比多增 0.28 万亿元。截至 1 月末， 社融存量规模 449.11 万亿元，同比增速 8.2%，增速环比回落 0.1%。 1 月对公信贷同比少增：1 月，贷款增加 4.71 万亿元，同比少增 0.42 万亿元。截至 1 月末，金融机构人民币贷款余额 276.6 万亿 元，同比增长 6.1%，环比下降 0.2%。根据《金融时报》数据，人 民币贷款还原政府债置换因素后，人民币贷款同比增速约为 6.7%。居民端，1 月增加 4565 亿元，同比多增，其中，短期贷款 增 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Tuesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87% to 4,117.41 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.99%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 2.20 trillion RMB, with over 3,700 stocks rising [2][8] - In the Shenwan industry classification, the oil and petrochemical and building materials sectors led the gains, while the media sector lagged. Among concept sectors, combustible ice and cultivated diamond concepts had the highest increases [2][8] Important News - On February 24, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the inclusion of 20 Japanese entities in the export control list, which includes companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries that are involved in enhancing Japan's military capabilities. Another 20 entities, including Subaru Corporation, were placed on a watch list due to unverified end-users and end-uses of dual-use items [3][8] Industry Analysis - As of February 15, 2026, 42 listed companies in the social service sector had released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 49% and an overall pre-profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumption sectors. The consumption structure in China is shifting from goods to a balance of goods and services, with service consumption expected to be a major growth driver [9][10] - The social service sector is anticipated to see structural opportunities in the first half of 2026, driven by policies such as the implementation of the Spring and Autumn holiday system and a gradual recovery in consumer confidence. Key areas of focus include travel-related companies benefiting from these policies, leading chain restaurants in a critical phase of expansion, and early-stage investments in emerging experiential sectors like sports events and concerts [9][10] Earnings Forecasts - The social service sector has a total of 85 A-share companies, with 42 having released earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49%, ranking fourth among consumption sectors. Among the companies that released forecasts, only 19 are expected to be profitable in 2025, with a pre-profit rate of 45%, ranking sixth among consumption sectors. Compared to the same period in 2024, the sector's performance is under pressure, with a noticeable trend of divergence [10][12] - The tourism and scenic area sector is showing signs of recovery, with 8 out of 13 companies that released forecasts expected to be profitable. The professional services sector is performing steadily, while the sports sector is expected to incur losses [10][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Insights - As of February 15, 2026, 42 out of 85 listed companies in the social services sector have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 49%. The overall pre-profit rate for the sector is 45%, ranking sixth among eight major consumer sectors. The consumption structure in China is shifting from goods to a balanced focus on both goods and services, with experience-based service consumption expected to be a major growth driver. For 2026, stable consumer policy guidance is anticipated, but recovery in the fundamentals will take time due to adjustments in household balance sheets. The first half of 2026 is expected to present mainly structural opportunities [2][3][30]. Summary by Sections Disclosure and Performance - The social services sector has a disclosure rate of 49%, ranking fifth among eight major consumer sectors. Among the 42 companies that have released forecasts, only 19 are expected to be profitable, leading to a pre-profit rate of 45%, which is the sixth highest among consumer sectors. Compared to 2024, the performance of the social services sector is under pressure, with only 14% of companies expected to see year-on-year profit growth, a decrease of 4% from the previous year. The proportion of companies turning losses into profits and those continuing to incur losses has increased to 10% and 48%, respectively, with nearly half of the companies continuing to report losses [3][11][30]. Subsector Performance - Most subsectors have a disclosure rate exceeding 50%, with the tourism and scenic spots sector showing signs of recovery. Among 13 companies that have disclosed forecasts in this sector, 8 are expected to be profitable. The professional services sector remains stable with over half expected to be profitable, while the sports sector is expected to incur losses. The tourism and scenic spots sector continues to face pressure, but there are positive signals of recovery, with the proportion of companies turning losses into profits increasing from 8% to 23%. The hotel and restaurant sector is performing well, with two companies expecting profit increases and a decrease in loss ratios. The education sector, however, is underperforming, with 7 out of 10 companies continuing to report losses [4][15][16][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the travel chain sector that will benefit from the implementation of the spring and autumn holiday system and the gradual recovery of consumer confidence. Additionally, attention should be given to leading chain restaurants that are in a critical phase of scaling up and increasing market share, as well as the early-stage value of emerging experience-based sectors such as sports events and concerts [2][30].

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 24 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上上周五，A 股震荡下跌，截至收盘，上证指数收跌 1.26%，报 4082.07 点，深证成指跌 1.28%，创业板指跌 1.57%。沪深两市 A 股成交额约 1.98 万亿元人民币，超 3600 股下跌。申万行业方面，综合、国防军 工行业领涨，有色金属行业领跌；概念板块方面，数字水印、网约车 概念涨幅居前。周一，港股方面，香港恒生指数收盘涨 2.53%，恒生 科技指数涨 3.34%。美国三大股指全线下跌，道指跌 1.66%，标普 500 指数跌 1.04%，纳指跌 1.13%。欧洲股市涨跌不一，亚太股市涨跌互 现。 【重要新闻】 【美国最高法院公布关税诉讼案裁决结果，判定美国政府相关关税违 法】美国最高法院公布关税诉讼案裁决结果，判定美国政府依据《国 际紧急经济权力法》对相关贸易伙伴加征的对等关税、芬太尼关税等 相关关税违法。我国商务部对此回应表示，正在对相关内容和影响进 行全面评估。中方敦促美方取消对贸易 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing development of AI computing power and the importance of autonomous control in the electronic industry, suggesting a diversified investment approach [6][10]. Market Review - On Thursday, the A-share market showed slight adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05% to 4,134.02 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.32%. The total trading volume in the A-share market was approximately 2.14 trillion RMB, with nearly 2,000 stocks rising. The comprehensive and electronic sectors led the gains, while the beauty and personal care sector lagged [8][10]. Important News - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting to deepen the deployment of the "AI+" initiative, emphasizing the need for state-owned enterprises to enhance their sense of responsibility and urgency in developing the AI industry. The meeting focused on promoting independent innovation, strengthening investment, and fostering a collaborative ecosystem for AI development [9][10]. Investment Strategy - The electronic industry is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index in 2025, with improved profitability. The report recommends capitalizing on investment opportunities in AI computing power construction and terminal innovation. Key areas of focus include high-demand segments such as storage and PCB, which are experiencing a boom due to increased capital expenditure [10][11]. AI Computing Power Construction - The report indicates that the demand for key hardware in AI computing is robust, particularly in the PCB and storage sectors. The PCB industry is expected to benefit from the upgrade of AIPCB technology, with domestic manufacturers accelerating capital expenditure to expand high-end PCB production capacity. The storage market is also poised for growth, driven by AI, with major players like Samsung and SK Hynix adjusting their production plans to optimize supply and demand [11][12]. AI Terminal Innovation - The report notes that AI-enabled devices such as smartphones, AIPC, and AI glasses are increasingly penetrating the traditional consumer electronics market. Major brands like Apple and Meta are actively developing AI products, which are expected to drive market growth and enhance demand across the supply chain [12][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the storage and PCB sectors that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing boom in AI computing power. It also highlights the potential of AI smartphones and other innovative terminals to drive growth in the consumer electronics market, recommending attention to leading manufacturers and their new product launches [13][17].