策略研究|策略月报 [Table_Title] 地缘风险事件扰动下，A 股市场情绪回落 [投资要点： Table_Summary] 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_RightTitle] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 03 月 30 日 | [Table_Authors] 分析师: | 宫慧菁 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 18028875418 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 政府工作报告部署年度重点工作 地方两会着力促进经济高质量发展 A 股迎来春节行情，资金表现活跃 策 略 研 究 策 略 月 报 [Table_Pagehead] ⚫ 资本市场方面，3 月 A 股市场流动性有所提升。由于外部扰 动，3 月市场投资者情绪与风险偏好有所走弱。结合证监会 近期会议看，证监会将持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革， 扩大耐心资本、长期资本和战略资本供给。整体看，市场韧 性有望增强，流动性环境有望好转。建议关注：1）沿着"十 五五"规划纲要 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating a projected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the market in the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The media industry (Shenwan) experienced a decline of 1.41% last week, ranking 21st in the market, while it remained flat compared to the CSI 300 index and outperformed the ChiNext index by 0.27 percentage points. Year-to-date, the media industry has seen a cumulative decline of 4.27% [11][13]. - OpenAI's announcement to shut down Sora reflects the intensifying competition in the AI industry, suggesting that projects lacking a clear commercialization path may struggle to survive. The focus is shifting towards vertical applications, cost-effectiveness, and genuine user needs, emphasizing practicality and profitability [10][20]. - The successful launch of "The Kingdom of Lock: World" is attributed to its strong nostalgic IP appeal, innovative business model, player-centric operational strategies, and high-quality content production, indicating significant market potential in the casual pet-catching game segment [10][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The game "The Kingdom of Lock: World" topped the iOS free game chart on its launch day and reached the top of the sales chart the following day, with 15 million new users on launch day [18]. - OpenAI's Sora, a video generation tool, will cease operations after experiencing a rapid decline in user engagement and revenue following an initial surge [20]. - In March, a total of 133 game licenses were issued, including 130 domestic and 3 imported games, indicating a stable trend in game approvals [20]. - Nearly 20 films have been scheduled for release during the Qingming holiday, showcasing a variety of genres and appealing to diverse audience preferences [21]. Industry Valuation - The Shenwan media industry PE (TTM) valuation decreased from 26.07X to 25.62X, slightly below the average level of 26.24X from 2018 to 2025, reflecting a decline of 2.36% [16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expectation of over 10% relative increase in the industry index compared to the market in the next six months [42]. Core Insights - The electric power equipment index increased by 0.05% to 11,270.74 points, outperforming the market. The industry has risen by 11.72% since the beginning of 2026, while the market index has decreased by 2.75% [2][4][14]. - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a recovery driven by high downstream demand, with active production and rising material prices. The industry cycle is entering an upward phase, suggesting a focus on leading companies in lithium battery materials for profit recovery opportunities [3][41]. - Wind power equipment is seeing high growth in installations, particularly in offshore projects, with significant market potential expected to drive corporate profit growth [3][41]. - Emerging technologies, particularly in AI and solid-state battery technology, are expected to catalyze investment opportunities in the supply and distribution systems [3][41]. Industry Data Tracking - As of March 27, 2026, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 158,100 CNY/ton, up 6.12% week-on-week and up 112.64% year-on-year [10][26]. - The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium is 106,500 CNY/ton, down 4.05% week-on-week but up 76.03% year-on-year [10][27]. - Prices for ternary materials (5 series, 6 series, 8 series) are 186,500 CNY/ton, 182,500 CNY/ton, and 202,500 CNY/ton respectively, with respective week-on-week increases of 1.08%, 0.55%, and 0.25% [10][29]. - The prices of graphite electrodes for ordinary, high-power, and ultra-high-power are 15,900 CNY/ton, 17,800 CNY/ton, and 18,500 CNY/ton respectively, remaining stable week-on-week [10][33]. - The prices of wet-process separator base films for 5μm, 7μm, and 9μm are 1.05 CNY/m², 0.81 CNY/m², and 0.85 CNY/m² respectively, with minor fluctuations [10][34]. Major Industry News - The National Energy Administration reported that new photovoltaic installations in China for January-February 2026 totaled 32.48 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, marking the first decline since 2019 [11][39]. - Zijin Mining's 25,000-ton lithium carbonate project has entered trial production, utilizing a carbonization method combined with resin deep purification to produce high-quality battery-grade lithium carbonate [11][39]. - Henan Province has set a target for new energy storage installations to reach 23 million kW by 2030, with measures to accelerate project construction and enhance market mechanisms [11][39].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.63% to 3913.72 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.13%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.71%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.85 trillion yuan. The pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals sectors led the gains, while utilities, telecommunications, and banking sectors lagged behind [1][7] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.38% to 24951.88 points, while the US stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones down by 1.73% to 45166.64 points, the S&P 500 down by 1.67% to 6368.85 points, and the Nasdaq down by 2.15% to 20948.36 points [1][7] Important News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment held a meeting in Wuhan to address air pollution control in the Yangtze River Middle Reaches urban agglomeration, emphasizing the need for structural adjustments in key industries and promoting green transformation [2][8] - In the first quarter of this year, China's innovative drug licensing transactions exceeded 60 billion USD, nearing half of the total expected for 2025. By March 27, 2026, 10 innovative drugs had been approved, with 2 being imported and 8 domestically produced, indicating a historic breakthrough in the sector [2][8] Industry Insights Inverter Exports - In February 2026, China's inverter export value was 5.683 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 4.13% but a year-on-year increase of 75.24%. Cumulatively, the inverter exports for January and February reached 11.611 billion yuan, up 52.14% year-on-year [9][11] - The Asian market showed high growth, with exports to the region amounting to 2.114 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 15.69% and a year-on-year increase of 76.93%. Notably, exports to India and Pakistan saw significant recovery [11][12] - The North American market also rebounded, with exports reaching 179 million yuan, a month-on-month increase of 23.08% and a year-on-year increase of 104.68% [12] Electric Equipment Exports - In February 2026, the total export value of electric equipment was 7.813 billion yuan, down 5.80% month-on-month but up 54.74% year-on-year. The cumulative export value for January and February reached 16.106 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.69% [18][20] - Transformer exports maintained high growth, with February exports valued at 4.447 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.13%. The African market led in growth, with exports to the region showing a significant increase [20][21] - The cable exports also demonstrated high growth, with February exports valued at 1.812 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.58% [22][23] Company Analysis Lingnan Holdings - Lingnan Holdings, a comprehensive tourism group controlled by the Guangzhou State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, has a stable shareholding structure with a 62.54% stake. The company reported a revenue of 3.41 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 17.7% [24][25] - The company has a dual-driven business model of travel agency and hotel operations, with outbound tourism rapidly recovering, contributing to 40.6% of its revenue from overseas [24][25] - Lingnan Holdings is expanding its business into property management and has a strong focus on the silver-haired tourism market, which is expected to grow significantly [26][27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [44]. Core Insights - In February 2026, China's inverter export amount was 5.683 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 4.13% but a year-on-year increase of 75.24%. Cumulatively, the export amount for January-February 2026 reached 11.611 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.14% [15][12]. - The Asian market showed high prosperity, with significant growth in exports, while the European market experienced a slight month-on-month adjustment but maintained high year-on-year growth. The North American market saw a rebound in demand, and the Latin American market also showed recovery, particularly in Mexico [15][16][31]. Summary by Region Asia - In February 2026, China's inverter exports to Asia amounted to 2.114 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 15.69% and a year-on-year increase of 76.93%. Notably, the UAE market maintained high growth, while India and Pakistan showed significant recovery [2][16]. - Exports to specific countries included 0.80 billion yuan to Saudi Arabia, 3.69 billion yuan to the UAE, 4.64 billion yuan to India, and 1.56 billion yuan to Pakistan, with varying growth rates across these markets [2][16]. Europe - Exports to Europe in February 2026 totaled 1.991 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15.92% but a year-on-year increase of 83.81%. The export amounts to Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, and Poland were 0.354 billion, 0.817 billion, 0.100 billion, and 0.089 billion yuan, respectively, with Poland showing exceptional growth [3][26]. North America - In February 2026, exports to North America reached 0.179 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 23.08% and a year-on-year increase of 104.68%. Exports to the US amounted to 0.146 billion yuan, indicating strong market recovery [4][31]. Latin America - Exports to Latin America were 0.470 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.46% and a year-on-year increase of 5.53%. Exports to Mexico showed a remarkable year-on-year growth of 798.22% [31][32]. Africa - Exports to Africa amounted to 0.582 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 5.19% but a year-on-year increase of 76.34%. Nigeria's exports continued to rise, while South Africa's performance was stable [9][32]. Oceania - Exports to Oceania were 0.391 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 27.03% but a year-on-year increase of 237.65%. The Australian market remained strong, contributing significantly to the overall growth [10][32]. Summary by Shipping Origin - In February 2026, the export amounts from Guangdong, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Jiangsu were 2.207 billion, 1.483 billion, 0.540 billion, and 0.811 billion yuan, respectively. Guangdong showed positive growth both month-on-month and year-on-year, while Anhui experienced declines [11][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Lingnan Holdings [4] Core Insights - Lingnan Holdings is a comprehensive tourism group under the Guangzhou State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a stable shareholding structure and a focus on travel agency and hotel operations as dual growth drivers [1][2] - The company has a solid financial performance, with revenue of 34.1 billion yuan and a gross margin of 17.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, maintaining a high position in the industry [1][25] - The travel agency business is recovering rapidly, with outbound tourism revenue expected to reach 1.7 billion person-times by 2025, and Southeast Asia becoming a preferred destination due to visa-free policies [2][41] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Lingnan Holdings, established in 1993, has transformed from a single hotel operation to a comprehensive tourism group through acquisitions and restructuring, with a focus on business travel, accommodation, and automotive services [1][14] - The company is controlled by the Guangzhou State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, holding 62.54% of the shares, ensuring a stable ownership structure [1][17] Business Segments - The travel agency segment is experiencing a resurgence, with the domestic tourism market recovering and expected to reach 85.4% of 2019 revenue levels by 2024 [2][37] - The hotel segment includes high-end properties such as the Guangzhou Garden Hotel and the China Hotel, with a focus on asset-light management strategies [2][16] - The company is expanding its cultural tourism chain, covering various sectors such as scenic area operations, duty-free retail, and exhibition services, creating synergistic effects [2][3] Competitive Advantages - Lingnan Holdings has established a strong competitive moat through innovative transaction structures and strategic acquisitions, which are expected to contribute nearly 100 million yuan in annual revenue post-injection [3] - The silver-haired tourism market presents significant potential, with the population aged 60 and above expected to reach 320 million by 2025, aligning well with the company's travel agency business [3][41] - The company is also expanding into property management, leveraging its state-owned background to enhance its business footprint [3][19] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 43.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 59.3 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.10% [3][4] - The net profit is expected to decline by 51.56% in 2025 but recover in subsequent years, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to reach 0.13 yuan by 2027 [3][4] Market Trends - The outbound tourism market is expected to see a significant increase in demand, with the number of outbound travelers projected to rise from 100 million in 2023 to 170 million in 2025 [41][42] - Domestic tourism is also rebounding, with total spending expected to reach 6.3 trillion yuan by 2025, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [46]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating a projected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the broader market within the next six months [4][7]. Core Insights - In March 2026, a total of 133 game licenses were approved, which is a 13% decrease from February (152 licenses) but remains stable compared to March 2025 (134 licenses). This includes 130 domestic games and 3 imported games [2][3]. - The game "Little People Country," developed by Tencent, is highlighted for its unique positioning in the life simulation genre, emphasizing a "no-goal" gameplay style and social interaction, which may disrupt traditional gameplay in the domestic market [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Events - The National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval of 133 game licenses in March 2026, consisting of 130 domestic and 3 imported games [1]. Investment Highlights - The approval volume of game licenses in March 2026 has decreased compared to February but remains stable year-on-year. Key titles include "Little People Country" and others from major developers like Tencent and NetEase [2][3]. - The life simulation game market is expected to see increased competition, with major players dominating. "Little People Country" aims to carve out a niche with its innovative gameplay [2]. Investment Recommendations - Despite a decrease in license approvals, the overall industry remains stable, with strong product pipelines from leading companies. It is recommended to focus on companies with diverse product offerings and strong R&D capabilities [3].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the next six months compared to the market index [46]. Core Insights - In February 2026, China's total export value of electrical equipment was 7.813 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 5.80% but a year-on-year increase of 54.74%. Cumulative exports for January-February reached 16.106 billion yuan, up 33.69% year-on-year [1]. - The transformer export market remains robust, with a year-on-year growth of 58.13% in February 2026, driven primarily by the African market, which saw a staggering growth rate of 676.48% [2][14]. - The electric meter exports rebounded in February, with a total export value of 0.884 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.78% and a year-on-year increase of 42.44% [3][19]. - Switch exports showed stability with a total value of 0.669 billion yuan in February, maintaining a year-on-year growth of 41.51% despite a month-on-month decline [4][26]. - Cable exports also demonstrated high growth, with a total export value of 1.812 billion yuan in February, marking a year-on-year increase of 58.58% [9][34]. Summary by Category Transformers - February 2026 transformer exports amounted to 4.447 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 7.75% but a year-on-year increase of 58.13%. Cumulative exports for January-February reached 9.267 billion yuan, up 41.42% year-on-year [13][2]. - Exports to Asia and Africa were particularly strong, with year-on-year growth rates of 57.15% and 676.48%, respectively [14]. Electric Meters - In February 2026, electric meter exports totaled 0.884 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 8.78% and a year-on-year increase of 42.44%. Cumulative exports for January-February were 1.697 billion yuan, down 2.91% year-on-year [3][19]. - The African market showed exceptional performance, with exports reaching a recent high and a year-on-year growth of 101.94% [19]. Switches - February 2026 switch exports were valued at 0.669 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 13.65% but a year-on-year increase of 41.51%. Cumulative exports for January-February reached 1.445 billion yuan, up 25.18% year-on-year [26][8]. - The African and European markets exhibited strong performance, with year-on-year growth rates of 253.35% and 103.24%, respectively [29]. Cables - In February 2026, cable exports totaled 1.812 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.87% but a year-on-year increase of 58.58%. Cumulative exports for January-February reached 3.697 billion yuan, up 42.60% year-on-year [34][9]. - The Asian and African markets showed significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 106.32% and 177.79%, respectively [35]. Investment Recommendations - Given the rapid growth in global renewable energy installations and stable investment in grid construction, the report suggests that China's electrical equipment products, which have technological and cost advantages, are likely to benefit from continued export growth. It is recommended to focus on leading companies with successful overseas market expansion and advanced technology [42].

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.41%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.34%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 19,434.53 billion [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and banking sectors led the gains, while the computer, non-bank financial, and telecommunications sectors faced declines. Concept sectors such as combustible ice, sodium-ion batteries, and Tianjin Free Trade Zone saw increases, whereas military restructuring concepts, HJT batteries, and newly listed tech stocks declined [2][7] - The Hong Kong market also saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.89% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 3.28%. Internationally, all three major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down by 1.01%, the S&P 500 down by 1.74%, and the Nasdaq down by 2.38% [2][7] Important News - On March 26, 2026, the State Administration for Market Regulation held its first enterprise fair competition symposium, focusing on "regulating corporate competition behavior and building a healthy competitive ecosystem for enterprises going abroad." The meeting involved discussions with leaders from companies such as China Minmetals, China State Construction, CATL, and BYD. The Deputy Director emphasized the need for strengthened antitrust enforcement, corporate compliance guidance, and support for enterprises to explore international markets and achieve high-quality development [3][8]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.3%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.01%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,796.32 billion yuan [2][8] - In terms of industry performance, the leading sectors included comprehensive, communication, and non-ferrous metals, while coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and banking lagged behind. Concept sectors such as military equipment restructuring, optical fiber, and F5G concepts led the gains [2][8] Important News - The Chinese government is accelerating the establishment of a long-term care insurance system, which aims to provide services or financial support for basic living care and related medical care for disabled individuals. This system is a crucial part of the social security framework and is essential for addressing the challenges of an aging population [3][9] - A commentary article from the Economic Daily, reprinted by the State Administration for Market Regulation, argues that the food delivery industry is trapped in a vicious cycle of sacrificing quality and profits due to subsidy wars. It calls for a return to reasonable pricing in the food delivery sector and emphasizes that competition should shift from price wars to service quality [3][9] Company Analysis - CITIC Bank reported a revenue of 212.5 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 70.6 billion yuan for 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.5% and 3%, respectively. The decline in revenue growth has narrowed compared to the previous quarters, and the net profit growth rate remained stable [11] - The bank's total assets reached 10.13 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3%. Loan and deposit growth rates were 2.6% and 4.5%, respectively, while risk-weighted assets grew by 8.7%. The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 9.48% [11] - The asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.15% and a focus rate of 1.62%, both showing slight declines from the beginning of the year. The provision coverage ratio was 203.61%, down by 5.82 percentage points [11] - The net interest margin for 2025 was reported at 1.63%, a year-on-year decrease of 14 basis points, maintaining stability over three consecutive quarters. The yield on interest-earning assets and loans decreased by 52 basis points and 57 basis points, respectively [13] - The bank's dividend payout ratio increased to 31.75% in 2025, up by 1.25 percentage points from 2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [11]