强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告|商贸零售 [Table_Title] 12 月社零总额同比+0.9%，已连续 7 个月增 速环比下降 [Table_ReportType] ——2025 年 12 月社零数据跟踪报告[Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] 总体：2025 年 12 月社零同比+0.9%，增速同比、环比均下降。2025 年 12 月我国社会消费品零售总额 45,136 亿元，同比增长 0.9%， 较去年同期增速下降 2.8pcts，较 11 月增速环比下降 0.4pcts， 并且自 2025 年 6 月以来已经连续 7 个月增速环比下降。12 月我 国 CPI 同比+0.8%，较 11 月的+0.7%增加 0.1pcts。①商品和餐饮 零售增速环比均下降。2025 年 12 月商品零售同比+0.7%，较 11 月 增速环比-0.3pcts；餐饮收入同比+2.2%，较 11 月增速环比- 1.0pcts。限上企业商品零售额同比-2.00%，较 11 月增速环比 +0.2pcts。②按地区分类：城镇与乡村社零增速均下降，乡村增 速高于城镇。12 月城镇消费品零 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "outperforming the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [8]. Core Insights - The joint opinion from nine departments emphasizes support for prescription outflow, collaboration between retail and commercial insurance, equal treatment for outpatient services, and encourages mergers and acquisitions among pharmacies. This creates a favorable environment for leading pharmacy chains, opening a window for industry consolidation [4]. - The pharmacy industry has experienced a long-term supply-side clearing, leading to increased customer flow towards leading companies and a continuous rise in market concentration. With efforts to reduce costs and improve efficiency, performance is expected to continue improving, especially with the recent policy shift [4]. - The report suggests focusing on comprehensive pharmacy chains that have potential for mergers, clear business transformation progress, and strong capabilities for nationwide expansion or deep-rooted local market barriers. Future attention should be on policy implementation, store expansion, and performance improvement expectations [4]. Policy Highlights - The policy aims to optimize the service of designated retail pharmacies, allowing insured individuals to purchase drugs from these pharmacies with costs covered by insurance funds according to regulations. It also supports the use of personal accounts for medical expenses incurred at designated retail pharmacies [2]. - The policy encourages retail pharmacies to participate in centralized drug procurement and aims to build a commercial insurance payment guarantee system, promoting the development of commercial health insurance products that fit retail pharmacy scenarios [2][3]. - There is a push for retail pharmacies to engage in mergers and acquisitions, promoting integrated development between wholesale and retail sectors, and encouraging the sale of innovative drugs and reference preparations through retail channels [3].

周四 A 股三大指数集体收涨，截止收盘，沪指收涨 0.14%，深成指收 涨 0.5%，创业板指收涨 1.01%。沪深两市成交额 26914.89 亿元。申 万行业方面，建筑材料、国防军工、石油石化领涨，美容护理、银行、 医药生物领跌；概念板块方面，国产航母、可燃冰、成飞概念涨幅居 前，科创次新股、光刻胶、国家大基金持股跌幅居前。港股方面，恒 生指数收涨 0.17%，恒生科技指数收涨 0.28%；海外方面，美国三大 指数集体收涨，道指收涨 0.63%，标普 500 收涨 0.55%，纳指收涨 0.91%。 【重要新闻】 【央行行长潘功胜表示，2026 年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策， 灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，今年 降准降息还有一定的空间】要继续维护好金融市场的平稳运行。做好 预期管理，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。加强债券 市场、外汇市场、货币市场、票据市场、黄金市场监督管理。建立在 特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排。继续用好支持资本 市场的两项货币政策工具，支持资本市场稳定发展。 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_Mee ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" with an expectation of over 10% relative increase compared to the market index in the next six months [6][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that December 2025 saw the launch of eight key mobile games, with "Jiumu Zhi Ye" standing out due to its innovative gameplay and strong market performance [1][10]. - "Jiumu Zhi Ye" employs a unique "free movement + real-time combat + horizontal strategy" approach, enhancing player engagement and gameplay depth, which is expected to attract core players seeking a deep combat experience [2][16]. - The game achieved significant early success, ranking second on the iOS free games chart on its first day and reaching a peak daily download of 110,115 and revenue of $216,450 on December 20 [2][16]. Summary by Sections New Game Releases - In December 2025, eight new mobile games were launched, including titles from various developers such as "Giant Eye" by Fat Pudding Games and "Jiumu Zhi Ye" by Thunder Games, among others [1][10]. Game Performance - "Jiumu Zhi Ye" led the new releases with an average daily revenue of $95,873, significantly outperforming other titles like "Dudu Face Prank" which had an average daily revenue of $23,947 [12][19]. - The game also recorded a total revenue of $2,684,454 and a download count of 589,863 by January 14, 2026, indicating strong market traction [12][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with product reserves, R&D capabilities, and diverse thematic layouts, as the gaming market is expected to reach new highs in revenue and user scale in 2025 [3][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the food and beverage industry experienced a downturn in performance and stock prices in 2025, with revenue growth slowing and net profit declining for the first time [2][16][23] - The food and beverage sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 831.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 0.14%, while net profit decreased by 4.57%, ranking 20th and 21st among 31 industries respectively [16][20] - The stock prices of the food and beverage sector fell by 4.72% from January to November 2025, placing it at the bottom of the performance rankings among the 31 industries [23][27] Group 2 - In the liquor industry, the report notes that channel destocking and low valuations combined with high dividend yields provide support for stock prices, despite a challenging environment due to policy impacts [3][36] - The report predicts that the white liquor industry will enter a "volume-price double kill" phase, characterized by intensified competition and market consolidation [3][36] - The report highlights that the beer sector is expected to see marginal improvements in 2026 due to cost advantages and a recovery in on-premise consumption [4][36] Group 3 - The dairy sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with low-temperature and deep-processed dairy products showing positive growth, while the overall profitability of dairy companies varies significantly [4][9] - The condiment industry is evolving towards customization driven by the rise of chain restaurants and strong retail channels, with a focus on companies that can meet tailored demands [4][9] - The frozen food sector is expected to return to positive growth as price wars ease, with companies like Anji actively exploring new sales channels [4][9] Group 4 - The soft drink market is primarily driven by functional beverages, which are seen as a high-growth segment, while the overall market growth is expected to rely on structural upgrades [4][9] - The snack industry is facing challenges with "revenue without profit," and companies with health-oriented products and strong channel advantages are recommended for attention [4][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that December 2025 saw the launch of eight key mobile games, with "Jiumu Zhi Ye" standing out due to its innovative gameplay and strong market performance [1][10]. - "Jiumu Zhi Ye" employs a unique "free movement + real-time combat + horizontal strategy" approach, enhancing player engagement and gameplay experience [2][16]. - The game achieved significant milestones, including reaching the top 2 in the iOS free game chart on its first day and ranking 23rd in the iOS revenue chart on launch day [2][16]. Summary by Sections New Game Releases - Eight key mobile games were launched in December 2025, including titles from various developers such as "Jiumu Zhi Ye" by Thunder Game and "Tianxia: Wanxiang" by NetEase [1][10]. Game Performance - "Jiumu Zhi Ye" recorded an average daily revenue of $95,873, significantly outperforming other new releases like "Dudu Face Prank" which had an average daily revenue of $23,947 [12][19]. - The game reached a peak download of 110,115 times on December 20, with a maximum daily revenue of $216,450 [2][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong product reserves, R&D capabilities, and diverse thematic layouts, as the gaming market is expected to reach new highs in revenue and user scale in 2025 [3][22].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][24]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight decline in the growth rate of social financing (社融) to 8.3% year-on-year as of December, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% [6][9]. - The report highlights a divergence in financing between households and enterprises, with household loans decreasing by 916 billion yuan in December, while enterprise loans increased by 1.07 trillion yuan [15][10]. - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates on January 15, 2026, indicating a focus on maintaining moderate monetary easing while emphasizing structural adjustments [20][4]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In December, social financing increased by 2.21 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 600 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in government bonds [9][6]. - The total social financing stock reached 442.12 trillion yuan by the end of December, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3% [9][6]. Loan Data - As of December, the balance of RMB loans was 271.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% but a month-on-month decline of 0.1% [14][3]. - The report notes that short-term loans for households decreased by 1.023 trillion yuan, while medium- to long-term loans increased by 100 billion yuan [15][10]. Monetary Aggregates - M2 grew by 8.5% year-on-year in December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while M1's growth rate was 3.8%, showing a month-on-month decline of 1.1% [19][4]. - New RMB deposits in December amounted to 1.68 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.08 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [19][4]. Investment Strategy - The report anticipates that the overall revenue and net profit growth rates for listed banks will stabilize in 2025 and 2026, supported by strong risk compensation capabilities [20][4]. - The current dividend yield in the banking sector remains attractive, suggesting that long-term capital will continue to allocate towards the banking sector, which will help solidify the valuation floor [20][4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][24]. Core Insights - The report indicates a slight decline in the growth rate of social financing (社融) to 8.3% year-on-year as of December, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% [6][9]. - In December, new loans increased by 910 billion yuan, which is 80 billion yuan less than the same month last year, reflecting a divergence in financing between households and enterprises [14][15]. - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates on January 15, 2026, indicating a focus on maintaining moderate monetary easing while emphasizing structural adjustments [20]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In December, social financing increased by 2.21 trillion yuan, which is 600 billion yuan less than the previous year, primarily due to a decrease in government bonds [6][9]. - The total social financing stock reached 442.12 trillion yuan by the end of December, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3% [9][10]. Loan Data - By the end of December, the balance of RMB loans was 271.9 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.3% but a month-on-month decline of 0.1% [14]. - Household financing demand remains weak, with a reduction of 916 billion yuan in December, while enterprise financing expanded significantly, driven by policy support [15]. Monetary Aggregates - M2 grew by 8.5% year-on-year in December, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while M1's growth rate fell to 3.8%, down 1.1% from the previous month [19][20]. - New RMB deposits in December amounted to 1.68 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.08 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [19]. Investment Strategy - The report anticipates that the overall revenue and net profit growth rates of listed banks will stabilize in 2025 and 2026, supported by strong risk compensation capabilities [20]. - The current dividend yield of the banking sector remains attractive, suggesting that long-term capital will continue to allocate towards the banking sector, which will help solidify the valuation floor [20].

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a collective decline last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.2%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 30,260.91 billion yuan [1][7]. - In terms of industry performance, the electronics, automotive, and machinery sectors led the gains, while media, computer, and oil & petrochemical sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors such as storage chips, state-owned fund holdings, and advanced packaging saw significant increases, whereas Sora concept, Kuaishou concept, and DRG/DIP faced notable declines [1][7]. - The Hong Kong market also saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.29% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.11%. Internationally, the U.S. markets also closed lower, with the Dow Jones down by 0.17%, S&P 500 down by 0.06%, and Nasdaq down by 0.06% [1][3][7]. Important News - Several EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on U.S. goods worth 93 billion euros and may restrict U.S. companies' access to the EU market in response to U.S. President Trump's tariffs on imports from eight European countries. Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1, with plans to increase it to 25% by June 1 [2][8]. - Elon Musk has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI and its core partner Microsoft for fraud, seeking damages between 79 billion and 134 billion dollars. Musk claims OpenAI has deviated from its non-profit mission by collaborating with Microsoft. OpenAI has responded that the lawsuit is baseless, and Microsoft stated there is no evidence of wrongdoing. A federal judge has ruled that the case will go to jury trial, expected to start in April [2][8].

Core Insights - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 0.41% and 0.56% respectively, with a total trading volume of 29,052.75 billion yuan [2][7] - Key sectors leading the market included electronics, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, while sectors such as comprehensive, defense, and media lagged behind [7] - The central bank implemented a series of monetary policy measures to support high-quality economic development, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in re-lending and rediscount rates, and an increase in the re-lending quota for small and medium-sized enterprises by 500 billion yuan [3][8] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,112.60, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component closed at 14,306.73, up 0.41% [4] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 29,052.75 billion yuan, indicating active trading [7] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell by 0.28%, while major U.S. indices saw collective gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.6% [4][7] Economic Policies - The central bank's measures included merging re-lending quotas for agricultural and small enterprises, increasing support for technology innovation and transformation, and lowering the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30% [3][8] - The central bank indicated that there is still room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [3][8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, driven by improved liquidity and supportive policies [9][10] - Key investment areas include technology innovation, advanced manufacturing, and domestic consumption upgrades, with a focus on sectors such as AI, high-end manufacturing, and service consumption [12][13]