核心观点 【市场回顾】 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 20 日 星期四 [Table_Summary] 概览 周三，A 股缩量震荡，截至收盘，上证指数收涨 0.18%，报 3946.74 点，深证成指持平，创业板指涨 0.25%。沪深两市 A 股成交额约 1.73 万亿元人民币，超 3900 股下跌。申万行业方面，有色金属、石油石 化行业领涨，综合行业领跌；概念板块方面，中船系、金属铅概念涨 幅居前。港股方面，香港恒生指数收盘跌 0.38%，恒生科技指数跌 0.69%。美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.10%，标普500指数涨0.38%， 纳指涨 0.59%。欧洲股市涨跌不一，亚太股市多数收跌。 【重要新闻】 【京津冀签署自贸试验区全产业链协同创新行动方案】《京津冀自贸 试验区全产业链协同创新行动方案》19 日在天津签署，明确在先进 制造、数字经济、现代物流三大重点产业领域开展协同创新，标志着 三地自贸试验区在产业链协同、制度创新、政策联动等方面迈出实质 性步伐。根据行动方案，立足天津全国先进制造研发基地功能定位， 天 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 19 日 星期三 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周二，A 股震荡回落，截至收盘，上证指数收跌 0.81%，报 3939.81 点，深证成指跌 0.92%，创业板指跌 1.16%。沪深两市 A 股成交额约 1.93 万亿元人民币，超 3800 股下跌。申万行业方面，传媒、计算机 行业领涨，煤炭行业领跌；概念板块方面，小红书概念、拼多多概念 涨幅居前。港股方面，香港恒生指数收盘跌 1.72%，恒生科技指数跌 1.93%。美国三大股指全线下跌，道指跌1.07%，标普500指数跌0.83%， 纳指跌 1.21%。欧洲股市全线下跌，亚太股市全线收跌。 3260 [Table_MeetContact] 主持人: 陈达 Email: chenda@wlzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 报 告 【重要新闻】 【北京出台提振和扩大消费政策，提出 2030 年金融支持北京市提振 和扩大消费总体目标】人民银行北京市分行等 12 部门联合印发《关 于金融支持北京市提振和扩大消费 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the broader market within the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The net profit growth rate of commercial banks has continued to rebound, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0% as of Q3 2025, and a quarterly growth rate of 2.4% [3]. - The net interest margin remained stable at 1.42% in Q3 2025, with slight variations among different types of banks [3]. - The overall asset growth rate of the industry remains stable, with state-owned and city commercial banks showing relatively high year-on-year growth rates of 10% and 10.6%, respectively [3]. - Asset quality has shown slight fluctuations, with non-performing loan ratios and attention ratios increasing slightly [4]. - The provision coverage ratio decreased to 207.15%, indicating a slight decline in the buffer against potential loan losses [4]. - The report suggests that the performance of the banking sector is expected to continue improving, with enhanced stability and increased investment value due to high dividend yields [4]. Summary by Sections Profitability - As of Q3 2025, the cumulative net profit growth rate for commercial banks is 0%, with state-owned banks at 2.3%, joint-stock banks at -2.1%, city commercial banks at 1.7%, and rural commercial banks at -7.3% [3]. - The quarterly net profit growth rate for Q3 2025 is 2.4%, with state-owned banks at 4.4%, joint-stock banks at -2.4%, city commercial banks at 9%, and rural commercial banks at -5.8% [3]. Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for Q3 2025 is 1.42%, remaining unchanged from the previous quarter [3]. - The net interest margin for state-owned banks is 1.31%, joint-stock banks at 1.56%, city commercial banks at 1.37%, and rural commercial banks at 1.58% [3]. Asset Growth - The total asset growth rate for commercial banks is 8.8% year-on-year as of Q3 2025, slightly down from 8.9% in Q2 2025 [3]. - State-owned banks and city commercial banks have higher asset growth rates of 10% and 10.6%, respectively [3]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio is 1.52%, with a slight increase of 3 basis points, and the attention ratio is 2.2%, also up by 3 basis points [4]. - The provision coverage ratio is 207.15%, down by 4.82 percentage points [4].

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 18 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周一，A 股震荡回落，截至收盘，上证指数收跌 0.46%，报 3972.03 点，深证成指跌 0.11%，创业板指跌 0.20%。沪深两市 A 股成交额约 1.91 万亿元人民币，超 2500 股下跌。申万行业方面，计算机、国防 军工行业领涨，医药生物行业领跌；概念板块方面，兵装重组概念、 MLOps 概念涨幅居前。港股方面，香港恒生指数收盘跌 0.71%，恒生 科技指数跌 0.96%。美国三大股指全线下跌，道指跌 1.18%，标普 500 指数跌 0.92%，纳指跌 0.84%。欧洲股市全线下跌，亚太股市涨跌不 【重要新闻】 【财政收入回暖，印花税收入保持高增速】11 月 17 日，财政部公布 的 2025 年 1—10 月财政收支情况显示，前 10 个月全国一般公共预算 收入增幅稳步回升，财政支出增幅放缓，但民生相关支出依然维持较 高增幅。10 月份，全国一般公共预算收入增幅继续提高，税收收入延 续较快增 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][42]. Core Insights - The SW Electronics industry saw a record high in fund heavy positions in Q3 2025, with a fund heavy ratio of 22.14%, up 4.91% quarter-on-quarter and 8.15% year-on-year [1][12]. - The focus of institutional investors is on AI computing power, semiconductor self-sufficiency, and an increased interest in the storage sector [2][22]. - The semiconductor sector remains the only sub-sector with an overweight position, while the concentration of the top five heavy positions has decreased, indicating a trend towards diversification in fund allocations [3][35]. Summary by Sections Fund Heavy Positions and Overweight Ratios - The SW Electronics industry had a matching ratio of 12.42% in Q3 2025, with a slight decrease of 0.14 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 3.47 percentage points year-on-year [1][12]. - The overweight ratio for the SW Electronics industry in Q3 2025 was 9.71%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.44 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.65 percentage points [1][12]. Top Heavy Positions - The top ten heavy positions in the SW Electronics industry for Q3 2025 included companies like Cambricon, SMIC, and Industrial Fulian, with a significant focus on semiconductor and AI computing power stocks [2][17]. - All top ten heavy positions experienced price increases in Q3, with Industrial Fulian, Cambricon, and Shenghong Technology showing the highest gains [2][17]. Investment Focus Areas - Institutional investors are particularly focused on AI computing power, with key players in the AI server manufacturing and domestic AI chip sectors benefiting from accelerated industry development [2][22]. - The semiconductor sector is emphasized for its self-sufficiency, with companies like SMIC and Zhongwei benefiting from domestic supply chain improvements [2][22]. - The storage sector is gaining attention, with leading storage chip manufacturer Zhaoyi Innovation seeing continuous institutional accumulation due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [2][22]. Sub-sector Allocation - Only the semiconductor sector maintains an overweight position at 6.26%, despite a decrease of 1.60 percentage points [3][31]. - The optical and optoelectronic sector has seen a slight narrowing of its underweight ratio, indicating a potential shift in investor interest [3][31]. Diversification Trends - The concentration of the top five heavy positions in the SW Electronics industry has been declining since Q1 2025, suggesting a diversification trend in fund allocations [3][35]. - The market share of the top five, ten, and twenty heavy positions in the overall fund heavy market value is 36.36%, 58.02%, and 74.73%, respectively [3][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the AI computing power and semiconductor self-sufficiency sectors, as well as the storage sector, which is expected to benefit from ongoing demand and price increases [2][40][37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the market over the next six months [5][8]. Core Insights - The monetary policy report suggests maintaining relatively loose financing conditions, with expectations of continued liquidity support in the fourth quarter. The report emphasizes the need for macro policy coordination to promote reasonable price recovery [3][4]. - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship, which influences the allocation of financial resources. It calls for enhanced linkage between asset and liability interest rate adjustments to support banks in stabilizing net interest margins [4]. - The banking sector's profit growth in the third quarter is attributed to reduced provisioning, stabilized net interest margins, and improved wealth management-related income, indicating a cyclical recovery. Future focus should be on the impact of bond market fluctuations on revenue and asset quality trends [4]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The report expresses a cautious view on the economic situation, noting insufficient global economic growth momentum and the need for stronger domestic economic recovery [3]. - It mentions that the total financial indicators should be viewed scientifically, with a shift in monetary policy targets from quantity to price [3]. Interest Rate Dynamics - The report stresses the significance of interest rate comparisons across various financial instruments, which dictate the flow of funds and resource allocation [4]. - It suggests that the adjustment of interest rates on both sides of banks' balance sheets should be coordinated to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy [4]. Banking Sector Performance - The report indicates that the banking sector's revenue growth is expected to continue improving, with enhanced performance stability and increased attractiveness for high-dividend investments [4]. - It notes that the issuance of special refinancing bonds by local governments, amounting to 4 trillion yuan, is primarily aimed at repaying bank loans, reflecting a shift in leverage dynamics [3].

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.97% at 3990.49 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.93% [1][7] - The industrial production showed steady growth, with the national industrial added value increasing by 4.9% year-on-year in October, and the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.0% [2][8] - The retail sales of consumer goods totaled 46,291 billion yuan in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [2][23] Market Review - The A-share market saw a total trading volume of approximately 1.96 trillion yuan, with over 3000 stocks declining [1][7] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 1.85%, while the U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.65% and the Nasdaq up 0.13% [1][7] Economic Data - The consumer price index (CPI) turned from decline to increase, rising by 0.2% year-on-year in October, compared to a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month [2][8] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment continued to grow [2][8] Industry Analysis - The offline pharmacy sector showed significant profit growth in Q3 2025, indicating effective cost control and efficiency improvements [9][14] - The pharmaceutical sector's performance in Q3 was better than the previous two quarters, with the medical research outsourcing and chemical preparation sub-sectors showing notable gains [10][12] Investment Recommendations - The long-term logic of prescription outflow remains unchanged, benefiting leading pharmacies with strong service capabilities and supply chain systems [14] - The report suggests focusing on leading brokerage firms with relatively low valuations, as the brokerage sector is expected to see performance improvements [15][17] Retail Sector Insights - The retail sector's performance in October showed a decline in commodity retail growth, while dining revenue growth improved [23][24] - Online retail sales for the first ten months of 2025 increased by 9.6% year-on-year, accounting for 31.03% of total retail sales [25][26]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a comprehensive rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.73% to 4029.50 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.55% [2][8] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.07 trillion RMB, with nearly 4000 stocks experiencing gains [2][8] - The banking index (CITIC) rose by 14.8% from January 2, 2025, to November 11, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.5 percentage points [13] Market Review - The performance of various sectors showed that the power equipment and non-ferrous metals industries led the gains, while public utilities and telecommunications sectors lagged [2][8] - In the concept sectors, fluorine chemical and organic silicon concepts led the rise, while fentanyl and Tonghuashun fruit index concepts fell [2][8] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increased by 0.56%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 0.80% [2][8] - In contrast, the US stock market indices all fell, with the Dow Jones down by 1.65%, the S&P 500 down by 1.66%, and the Nasdaq down by 2.29% [2][8] Important News - The People's Bank of China reported that the cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion RMB, with the broad money (M2) balance at 335.13 trillion RMB, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth [3][9] - The stock of social financing reached 437.72 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [3][9] - RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion RMB during the same period [3][9] Retail Financial Business Changes - The contribution of retail financial business to total revenue increased from 39.6% to 45.4% from 2020 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% [10][11] - However, the profit contribution from retail financial business decreased from 39.1% to 31.7%, with a CAGR of only 0.2% [10][11] - The net interest income growth was the main factor for the increase in retail financial revenue contribution, with a CAGR of 8.5% [10][11] Retail Financial Asset Quality - The asset quality of retail financial business has weakened, with the non-performing loan ratio increasing and the provisioning for bad debts rising [11] - The proportion of retail loans in total loans decreased to 35.7%, down by 5.1 percentage points [11] - The share of housing-related loans fell from 64.7% to 54.7%, while the share of operational loans rose from 12.7% to 22.7% [11] Excavator Sales Trends - In October 2025, excavator sales reached 18,096 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%, with domestic sales at 8,468 units and exports at 9,628 units [19][20] - Loader sales maintained high growth, with 10,673 units sold in October, reflecting a 27.7% year-on-year increase [19][20] - The total sales of excavators from January to October 2025 reached 192,135 units, up by 17% year-on-year [20] Industry Outlook - The engineering machinery industry is entering a new growth phase, with domestic demand supported by equipment upgrades and large infrastructure projects [21] - The overseas market is becoming a significant growth engine, with excavator exports exceeding domestic sales in October [21] - The competitive landscape is shifting towards global operational capabilities and technological advancements [21]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected index increase of over 10% relative to the broader market in the next six months [65]. Core Insights - Retail financial business revenue contribution is increasing while profit contribution is declining. From 2020 to 2024, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail financial business revenue for listed banks is projected to be 5%, outpacing the total revenue CAGR of 2.2% by 2.8 percentage points. The contribution of retail financial business revenue to total revenue is expected to rise from 39.6% to 45.4%, an increase of approximately 5.8 percentage points. In contrast, the profit CAGR for retail financial business is only 0.2%, lagging behind the total profit CAGR of 4.5% by 4.3 percentage points, leading to a decline in profit contribution from 39.1% to 31.7%, a drop of about 7.4 percentage points [2][15][16]. Summary by Sections Retail Financial Business Revenue and Profit Contribution - Retail financial business revenue growth is faster than total revenue growth, leading to an increase in its share [11]. - The profit growth of retail financial business is slower than that of total profit, resulting in a decrease in its share [15][16]. Interest Income Growth - The growth in net interest income is the primary factor for the increase in retail financial revenue contribution, with a projected CAGR of 8.5% from 2020 to 2024 [21]. - The share of net interest income in retail financial business revenue is expected to rise from 71% to 84% during the same period [22]. Asset Quality and Provisioning - The quality of retail financial assets is weakening, with an increase in non-performing loans and provisioning impacting profit contribution. The credit cost ratio for retail loans is expected to rise from 0.75% to 1.08% [40]. - The proportion of retail loan provisioning in total provisioning is projected to increase from 23% to 55% [40]. Changes in Loan Composition - The share of housing loans is declining while the share of operational loans is increasing. The proportion of housing-related loans is expected to decrease from 64.7% to 54.7%, while operational loans will rise from 12.7% to 22.7% [46]. Investment Strategy - The banking index has risen by 14.8% from January 2, 2025, to November 11, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.5 percentage points. The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the banking index is approximately 0.72 [57]. - Future improvements in retail financial business returns are expected to enhance sector valuations, despite challenges such as slowing loan growth and narrowing net interest margins [58][63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the潮玩 (trendy toy) sector [4]. Core Insights - The潮玩 industry is characterized by its integration of various cultural elements, including art, design, and popular IPs, leading to a unique product offering that appeals to consumers [2][3]. - The Chinese潮玩 market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increasing disposable income, the rise of emotional consumption, and the emergence of quality domestic IPs [3][4]. - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with new domestic players leading market growth, while established international brands maintain a significant presence [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1.潮玩 Industry Overview and Value Chain -潮玩 is defined as toys that incorporate trendy culture, featuring high visual recognition and limited release mechanisms [2]. - The value chain consists of three segments: upstream (IP supply and operators), midstream (manufacturers), and downstream (retailers and consumers) [2][3]. 2. Comparison with the Japanese Toy Industry - The Japanese toy industry serves as a reference for China, having evolved through economic cycles, with a notable shift towards virtual entertainment during economic downturns [3][19]. - Despite challenges like declining birth rates, the Japanese market has seen growth in related sectors such as animation and gaming, which has positively impacted the潮玩 industry [3][22]. 3. Growth of the Chinese潮玩 Market - The Chinese潮玩 market is projected to grow from 229 billion yuan in 2020 to 763 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 35.11% [3][33]. - The market remains fragmented, with the top five players holding a combined market share of 23.7%, indicating potential for consolidation [4][52]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on潮玩 companies that cover the entire value chain and possess quality IP resources, as they are likely to outperform in the competitive landscape [4][7].