策略研究|策略快评报告 独立自主，积极应对关税冲击 | [Table_Authors] 分析师: | 宫慧菁 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 020-32255208 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 2024 年年报业绩有望回暖 关注年报超预期赛道 国内经济运行起步平稳 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_RightTitle] [Table_Title] [Table_ReportType] ——策略快评报告 [Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] 2025 年 04 月 07 日 [Table_Pagehead] 证券研究报告|策略报告 策 略 快 评 报 告 策 略 研 究 ⚫ 2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普签署总统行政令，宣布 美国对贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低基准关税"，并对某些贸 易伙伴征收更高关税。其中拟对中国加征 34%关税，对欧 盟、越南、中国台湾地区、日本、印度、韩国、泰国、瑞士、 ...

清明旅游稳步增长，政策落地成效显现 [Table_ReportType] ——社会服务行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] ⚫ 景区：旅游市场稳步复苏，"堵山"成名场面。今年清明小长假 旅游人次及收入同比增速与春节黄金周基本持平（出游人次、出 游总花费他同比分别增长 5.9%/7.0%），在去年高基数下保持平稳 增长。在踏青赏花需求催化下，短途徒步、亲子登山等低门槛活 动成为家庭出游首选，山岳类景区热度大涨，西安终南山、开封 万岁山等多个山岳类景区发布限流提示。 ⚫ 国内游："年假+清明"拼假潮兴起，小长假长线游客近四成。与 往年相比，今年清明节前 3 天以及节后 2 天的机票预订量也有明 显上涨， "年假+清明"的拼假模式兴起。3 月 16 日，两办发布《提 振消费专项行动方案》，提出"严格落实带薪年休假制度"，"鼓 励带薪年休假与小长假连休，实现弹性错峰休假"，政策落地推 动短假长线游趋势，途牛数据显示，3 天假期仍有 37%的游客选 择长线游，三亚、北京、重庆、南京、桂林等目的地成为长线游 的热门选择。 ⚫ 跨境游：祭祖文化推动跨境客流增长，文旅融合撬动需求。据移 民管理局数据，清明节假期 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 07 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 清明假期前最后一个交易日，A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪 指收跌 0.24%，深成指收跌 1.4%，创业板指收跌 1.86%。沪深两市成 交额 1.14 万亿元。申万行业方面，农林牧渔、公用事业、食品饮料 领涨，家用电器、电子、汽车领跌；概念板块方面，中韩自贸区、动 物疫苗、禽流感概念领涨，同花顺果指数、同花顺出海 50、AI PC 领 跌。港股方面，恒生指数收跌 1.52%，恒生科技指数收跌 2.09%；海 外方面，上周五美国三大指数集体收跌，道指收跌 5.5%，标普 500 收 跌 5.97%，纳指收跌 5.82%。 3230 【重要新闻】 【国务院关税税则委员会：对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 34%关 税】2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关 税"。根据《中华人民共和国关税法》、《中华人民共和国海关法》、《中 华人民共和国对外贸易法》等法律法规和国际法基本原则，经 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][18]. Core Insights - The 2025 Qingming Festival film season is expected to feature 7 key films, including "The Silent Love," "Hot," "Sunshine Blossoms," "Operation Fox Hunt," "My World Movie," "Mobile Suit Gundam: Cross-Time War," and "Sunshine Shines in Youth" [1]. - The overall box office performance for the Qingming Festival is anticipated to improve, with a historical trend showing an increase from 687 million yuan in 2018 to 843 million yuan in 2024, with the box office share rising from 1.13% to 1.98% [2][8]. - The internal structure of the films is diverse, catering to various audience preferences, with a focus on realism. The top three films projected for the 2025 Qingming Festival are "Sunshine Blossoms," "The Silent Love," and "My World Movie," with a total box office forecast of 714 million yuan [3][14]. Summary by Sections Overall Box Office - The Qingming Festival is positioned as the first major box office period after the Spring Festival, historically playing a crucial role in the first half of the year. The box office for the Qingming Festival has shown a gradual increase over the years, with a notable recovery in 2024 driven by Hayao Miyazaki's film [2][8]. Internal Structure - The upcoming films for the Qingming Festival encompass various genres, including suspense, crime, action, and fantasy, focusing on realistic themes. The film "Sunshine Blossoms," directed by Feng Xiaogang and starring Zhao Liying, is expected to perform well due to its strong narrative and cast [3][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the viewing enthusiasm will continue to be released due to the rich supply of films and diverse genres, leading to a stable and positive box office performance. It recommends focusing on high-quality film production companies and leading cinema chains [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% compared to the market in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company's core business remains stable, with a notable improvement in gross margin. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.02%, primarily due to the impact of the real estate business divestiture. Excluding real estate, core business revenue remained flat. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 244 million yuan, down 19.73% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 215 million yuan, up 54.54% year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company recorded revenue of 1.180 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.33% year-on-year, with a net profit of 72 million yuan, an increase of 10.72% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved by 6.19 percentage points to 52.68% in 2024, mainly due to the divestiture of low-margin real estate business and optimization of the cosmetics and raw materials business structure. The net profit margin decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 7.44% [2]. Business Segments - The cosmetics segment generated revenue of 2.475 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.46%, with a gross margin of 62.57%. The "Yilian" brand achieved revenue of 963 million yuan, up 12.36% year-on-year, while "Aier Doctor" reported revenue of 1.301 billion yuan, down 3.48% year-on-year [3]. - The pharmaceutical segment's revenue was 512 million yuan, a decrease of 1.41% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 52.32%. The company is expanding its distribution channels and launching new functional food products [3]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 4.389 billion yuan in 2025, 4.710 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.056 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 10.20%, 7.32%, and 7.34% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 283 million yuan in 2025, 317 million yuan in 2026, and 360 million yuan in 2027 [4][10].

Core Insights - The A-share market showed slight gains with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05% to 3,350.13 points, the Shenzhen Component increasing by 0.09% to 10,513.12 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.13% to 2,104.63 points. The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 9,743.01 billion RMB, with net purchases from southbound funds amounting to 11.717 billion HKD. Over 2,600 stocks in the A-share market experienced gains [2][6] - In terms of industry performance, the textile and apparel, beauty care, and telecommunications sectors led the gains, while the defense and military, as well as non-ferrous metals sectors, saw the largest declines. Concept indices such as PVDF and noise control showed significant increases, whereas combustible ice and military equipment restructuring indices faced notable declines [2][6] - Internationally, the US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.56% to 42,225.32 points, the S&P 500 up by 0.67% to 5,670.97 points, and the Nasdaq rising by 0.87% to 17,601.05 points. Conversely, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.02%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.35% [2][4][6] Important News - The State Council's inter-ministerial joint meeting on reducing corporate burdens emphasized addressing overdue payments to enterprises, implementing actions to accelerate the clearance of such debts, and establishing a national complaint platform for overdue payments to small and medium-sized enterprises. The meeting also highlighted the need to reduce corporate costs through policies like large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in programs for consumer goods [7] - The Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions on improving price governance mechanisms, advocating for a market-oriented approach to price formation, promoting efficient flow of high-quality production factors, and ensuring effective service to the national unified market construction [3][7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.46% to 3,335.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.97% to 10,504.33 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.15% to 2,103.70 points. The total trading volume in the A-share market was 12,213.00 billion RMB, with net purchases from southbound funds amounting to 2.914 billion HKD. Over 3,800 stocks in the A-share market declined [2][6] - In the Shenwan industry sector, telecommunications, home appliances, and banking sectors led the gains, while the power equipment and defense industries saw the largest declines. Concept indices such as China AI50 and EDR performed well, while the fentanyl and Hainan Free Trade Zone indices faced significant drops [2][6] Important News - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March was reported at 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in manufacturing sentiment. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.8%, up by 0.4 percentage points, suggesting an acceleration in non-manufacturing expansion. The Composite PMI Output Index reached 51.4%, also up by 0.3 percentage points, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities [3][7] Company Performance Insights - As of March 27, 2024, 1,601 out of 5,405 A-share listed companies had disclosed their annual reports, representing 29.6%. These companies collectively achieved operating revenues of 280,664.72 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28,098.85 billion RMB, up by 10.63%. Notably, 187 companies reported a net profit growth of over 50%, and 76 companies saw their net profit more than double [8][9] - Among the companies with disclosed annual reports, industries such as non-bank financials, transportation, automotive, and electronics showed higher year-on-year growth in net profit [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on blue-chip stocks with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as leading companies in the machinery and consumer sectors that are expected to benefit from the "Two New and Two Heavy" policy initiatives. Additionally, the report highlights the recovery in the technology and communication sectors driven by the AI wave [9][11] - The newly launched AutoGLM by Zhiyuan is expected to enhance the capabilities of AI agents, promoting technological advancements and applications in the industry. The focus on AI-driven decision-making and perception systems positions Zhiyuan as a key player in the AI agent market [12][13] - Vivo's entry into the robotics industry, targeting home and personal scenarios, is seen as a strategic move to address the aging population's needs while avoiding competition in the industrial robotics sector. The emphasis on AI-driven decision-making and perception technology is expected to differentiate Vivo's offerings in the market [14][15] Financial Sector Developments - Four major banks, including China Construction Bank and Bank of China, announced a total capital injection of 520 billion RMB through a private placement, with the Ministry of Finance contributing 500 billion RMB. This capital injection is expected to enhance the banks' capital adequacy ratios and support their growth stability [17][19] - The report indicates that the overall asset quality of the banking sector remains stable, with a slight improvement in the provision coverage ratio. The anticipated fiscal policy support is expected to positively impact the macroeconomic recovery and improve the asset quality outlook for banks [19][20] Industry Performance - Zhujiang Beer reported a revenue of 5.731 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.56%, and a net profit of 810 million RMB, up by 29.95%. The increase in gross and net profit margins is attributed to lower raw material costs and product upgrades [25][26] - The company is focusing on expanding its high-end product offerings and enhancing its brand through various cultural and sports events, which is expected to drive future growth and profitability [28][29]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the performance of A-share listed companies is showing signs of improvement, with 1,601 out of 5,405 companies having disclosed their 2024 annual reports, representing 29.6% of the total. These companies collectively achieved operating revenue of 280,664.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28,098.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.63% [2][2][2] - Industries with high year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders include non-bank financials, transportation, automotive, and electronics. The overall performance of listed companies is improving, indicating a recovery in profitability [2][2][2] - Among the A-share companies with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan, 73 have disclosed their 2024 annual reports, achieving a total net profit of 22,664.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16%, which is 5.37 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of disclosed companies [2][2][2] Group 2 - As of March 28, 741 listed companies announced cash dividends totaling 9,064.62 billion yuan after disclosing their 2024 annual reports, with 19 companies declaring dividends exceeding 10 billion yuan [2][2] - The report suggests focusing on blue-chip stocks with stable performance, strong profitability, and high dividend yields. Additionally, companies in the machinery, consumer goods sectors, and those benefiting from the "two new and two heavy" policies are expected to perform well [2][2][2] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in non-bank companies' investment income and business demand, driven by supportive policies for capital market development, and suggests monitoring opportunities for industry mergers and acquisitions [2][2][2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "outperform the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the market over the next six months [10]. Core Insights - Vivo has officially entered the robotics industry, focusing on home and personal scenarios, including elderly care, healthcare, and education, rather than industrial or specialized robots. This strategy aligns with the trend of an aging population in China and avoids competition in the industrial robot market [2]. - The company's research and development will concentrate on the robot's intelligent core (AI model-driven decision-making) and perception systems (imaging and mixed reality technology), rather than the entire hardware structure. This approach leverages Vivo's existing advantages in AI algorithms, imaging chips, and sensor technology from the smartphone sector [2]. - Vivo's entry into the robotics sector introduces new technological pathways and ecological resources, although the commercialization of these innovations will require time to validate. Current home robots are typically single-function devices, while Vivo aims to provide multi-scenario services, which will necessitate overcoming challenges related to generalization and autonomous decision-making [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry is at a critical juncture for technological breakthroughs and commercialization, with policy support and increasing entrants driving accelerated development. The year 2025 is anticipated to mark the beginning of large-scale production and application of humanoid robots in both industrial and home settings [3]. Technological Focus - Vivo's robotics lab aims to define future robots' intelligence through two main modules: - "Brain": Enhancing AI decision-making and interaction capabilities for autonomous perception and task execution [8]. - "Eyes": Utilizing imaging technology and mixed reality for spatial awareness, improving robots' understanding of their physical environment [8]. Investment Recommendations - Attention is recommended for high-quality domestic component manufacturers that will benefit from the large-scale application of humanoid robots, as cost remains a significant barrier to widespread adoption [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the market over the next six months [5][8]. Core Insights - The financing scale aligns with expectations, with total capital raised amounting to 520 billion, distributed among four major banks: China Construction Bank (105 billion), Bank of China (165 billion), Postal Savings Bank (130 billion), and Bank of Communications (120 billion) [2]. - The impact of the capital injection on operational metrics includes premium rates over the latest stock prices of 8.8%, 10%, 21.5%, and 18.3% respectively, with dilution ratios of 4.5%, 9.3%, 20.7%, and 18.6% by the end of 2024 [2]. - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios are expected to improve by 0.48%, 0.86%, 1.51%, and 1.27%, reaching 15%, 13.1%, 11.1%, and 11.5% respectively after the capital increase [2]. - The dividend yields post-injection are projected to be 4.53%, 4.03%, 4.17%, and 4.34% respectively [2]. - Short-term dilution effects are anticipated, with capital increases likely to occur after annual dividends [3]. - The overall banking sector shows signs of slowing expansion, but asset quality remains stable, with a slight increase in provision coverage [3]. - The report suggests that fiscal policy will likely accelerate, potentially boosting internal demand and improving asset quality in the banking sector [3]. Summary by Sections Financing Overview - The total capital raised by the four banks is 520 billion, with significant contributions from the Ministry of Finance and other shareholders [2]. Impact on Financial Metrics - The capital injection is expected to enhance capital adequacy ratios and maintain stable dividend yields, despite short-term dilution effects [2][3]. Market Outlook - The banking sector is expected to benefit from fiscal policy measures, which may lead to improved asset quality and stable valuations [3].