Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.22% to 3448.45 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.48% to 10,343.48 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.66% to 2114.43 points. The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.58 trillion RMB, with net purchases from southbound funds amounting to 5.285 billion HKD. Over 3400 stocks in the A-share market declined [1][6] - In terms of industry performance, the banking, telecommunications, and defense industries led the gains, while the automotive and non-bank financial sectors saw the largest declines. Concept sectors such as military restructuring and electronic ID concepts showed significant gains, while sectors like photolithography and shared bicycles faced declines [1][6] - Internationally, the US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up by 0.94% to 43,386.84 points, the S&P 500 up by 0.8% to 6141.02 points, and the Nasdaq up by 0.97% to 20,167.91 points. European and major Asia-Pacific indices generally rose [1][6] Important News - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the third batch of funds for the consumption upgrade program will be distributed in July 2025. The focus will be on ensuring the sustainable and balanced implementation of the program throughout the year [2][6] - The Bank for International Settlements reported that stablecoins have not met the three key tests required to become a pillar of the monetary system, despite showing some potential in the tokenization landscape [2][7] Retail Sales Data - In May 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 413.26 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with growth rates improving both year-on-year and month-on-month. Retail sales of goods and catering services both saw increases compared to the previous month [8][12] - Online retail sales from January to May 2025 totaled 604.02 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.3% [11] Solid-State Battery Equipment - The solid-state battery industry is entering a rapid development phase, driven by national policy support and accelerated enterprise layouts. Solid-state batteries are seen as a key direction for upgrading lithium battery technology due to their high safety and energy density [15][19] - The market structure for lithium battery equipment shows that the front-end and mid-stage equipment hold significant value, with coating and winding machines being core components. The front-end equipment market accounts for 44.05%, while mid-stage equipment accounts for 35.71% of the total market [16][19] - The introduction of dry electrode technology in the front-end process is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, while the use of isostatic presses in the mid-stage process can improve material density and performance [17][18] Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry is benefiting from the consumption upgrade policy, with sales expected to continue growing. The real estate sector's recovery is also contributing to increased demand for home appliances as the market stabilizes [21][22] - The industry has seen a decline in performance due to tariff wars, but the valuation of home appliance stocks is currently at a historical low, presenting a good investment opportunity [21][22] - The export of home appliances is expected to remain resilient despite tariff uncertainties, supported by the growing demand in emerging markets [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the power equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - Solid-state batteries offer significant advantages over traditional liquid lithium batteries, including higher safety and energy density, marking a crucial direction for the lithium battery industry's upgrade. With national policy support and accelerated corporate layouts, solid-state batteries are entering a rapid development phase, with a broad market space anticipated in the future. Solid-state battery equipment, being part of the upstream segment of the lithium battery supply chain, is expected to benefit first during the mass production process [1][2]. Summary by Sections Conventional Lithium Battery Equipment - The value distribution of conventional lithium battery equipment is heavily weighted towards the front and middle segments, with coating and winding machines being the core equipment. The market share of front, middle, and back-end equipment in China is 44.05%, 35.71%, and 20.24% respectively, with coating machines accounting for about 75% of the front-end equipment value and winding machines for 70% of the middle segment [2][15]. Solid-State Battery Equipment - The differences between solid-state battery equipment and conventional lithium battery equipment are concentrated in the front and middle segments. The front-end involves dry electrode technology, which is expected to be applied, with roller press equipment being critical. The middle segment is suitable for stacking processes, with isostatic presses playing a significant role [2][18]. Front-End Equipment - The dry electrode process is a new electrode preparation technology that offers low cost, high efficiency, and environmental benefits. It eliminates the use of organic solvents, reducing risks of side reactions with solid electrolytes and enhancing compatibility. The dry electrode process consists of four main steps: dry mixing, dry coating, rolling, and cutting, with rolling being crucial for the performance of the electrode sheets [3][28]. Middle-End Equipment - Solid-state batteries face "solid-solid" interface issues that affect performance. The introduction of isostatic presses is expected to enhance material density and address interface gaps and impedance issues. The stacking assembly process is more compatible with solid-state batteries, which may lead to increased penetration of stacking machines in production lines [4][22]. Back-End Equipment - The back-end processes for solid-state batteries are similar to those for conventional lithium batteries, primarily requiring upgrades in equipment performance parameters. High-voltage formation and capacity testing machines are anticipated to replace conventional liquid injection machines [8][26]. Investment Recommendations - The acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization is expected to boost demand for equipment as downstream battery manufacturers increase investments. Key segments for equipment upgrades include the front-end dry electrode process and the middle-end isostatic presses. Companies with leading technology and comprehensive layouts in these core segments are recommended for investment [9][24].

Core Insights - The home appliance industry is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy, which is anticipated to drive significant sales growth in Q4 2024 and continue into 2025, supported by the gradual release of special bond quotas [1][2] - The real estate sector's post-cycle recovery is expected to bolster demand for appliance upgrades, with a notable increase in second-hand home transactions contributing to sales support [1][2] - Despite challenges from tariff wars, China's home appliance exports are projected to maintain growth due to the country's position as the world's largest producer and seller, with a low dependency on the U.S. market [1][2] Market Review - In H1 2025, the home appliance sector experienced a decline of 3.2%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 1.55% [14] - The total market capitalization of public funds in the home appliance sector was approximately 120.37 billion yuan at the end of Q1 2025, remaining stable compared to Q4 2024, but showing a slight decrease in allocation ratio [15] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the home appliance index is at 13.58, indicating a historically low valuation level, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio for investors [19] Domestic Sales - The demand for new appliance configurations is expected to weaken due to a decline in housing completions, while upgrade demand is anticipated to drive domestic sales growth [26][29] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies aimed at supporting the sector expected to positively impact downstream demand for home appliances [29] - The penetration rate of major appliances is high, with many units entering their replacement cycle, further supporting sales [39] Export Market - In 2024, the export volume and value of home appliances increased by 20.8% and 14.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a continued upward trend in early 2025 due to the "export rush" effect [9] - The export growth is expected to remain resilient despite tariff uncertainties, as China's home appliance exports have a low dependency on the U.S. market and are supported by rising demand in emerging markets [9][42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading white goods companies with stable operations and global layouts, as well as opportunities for valuation recovery in companies related to the real estate sector as risks ease [1][2]

周三 A 股三大股指集体收涨，上证指数上涨 1.04%，报 3455.97 点； 深证成指上涨 1.72%，报 10,393.72 点；创业板指上涨 3.11%，报 2128.39 点。A 股两市全天成交额 1.60 万亿元人民币，南向资金净买 入 95.73 亿港元。A 股两市个股普遍上涨，超 3700 只个股上涨。申 万行业方面，非银金融、国防军工及计算机行业领涨，石油石化及煤 炭行业跌幅居前；概念板块方面，兵装重组概念及互联网保险概念指 数涨幅居前，可燃冰及草甘膦概念指数跌幅居前。恒生指数上涨 1.23%，恒生科技指数上涨 1.15%；美国三大股指涨跌不一，道指下跌 0.25%，报 42,982.43 点，标普 500 指数持平，报 6092.16 点，纳指 上涨 0.31%，报 19,973.55 点。欧洲股市主要股指普遍下跌、亚太主 要股指普遍上涨。 3282 市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 26 日 星期四 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 【重要新闻】 【国泰君安国际获批将现有 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.15% to 3,420.57 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.68% to 10,217.63 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.30% to 2,064.13 points. The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 1.41 trillion RMB, with net purchases from southbound funds amounting to 2.588 billion HKD. Over 4,500 stocks in the A-share market experienced gains [1][5]. - In terms of industry performance, the power equipment, non-bank financials, and retail sectors led the gains, while the oil, petrochemical, and coal industries saw the largest declines. Concept indices such as reducers and solid-state batteries showed significant increases, whereas indices related to combustible ice and shale gas experienced notable declines [1][5]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.06%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.14%. In the US, all three major indices also saw gains, with the Dow Jones up by 1.19% to 43,089.02 points, the S&P 500 rising by 1.11% to 6,092.18 points, and the Nasdaq increasing by 1.43% to 19,912.53 points. European and major Asia-Pacific indices generally rose as well [1][5]. Important News - The People's Bank of China and six other departments jointly issued guidelines to support and expand consumption. The guidelines propose 19 key measures across six areas, including enhancing consumption capacity, expanding financial supply in consumption sectors, and optimizing the consumption environment. The focus is on solidifying the macroeconomic financial foundation, supporting employment and income growth, and innovating financial products tailored to consumption scenarios [2][5].

Core Insights - The A-share market showed a positive trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.65% to 3,381.58 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.43% to 10,048.39 points, indicating a general upward movement across over 4,200 stocks [1][6] - The banking sector is under pressure, with 42 listed banks reporting a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit of -1.7% and -1.2% respectively in Q1 2025, highlighting challenges in profitability [8][9] - The inverter export market remains stable, with May 2025 exports amounting to 5.965 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.35% and a year-on-year increase of 7.84% [13][14] - The electrical equipment export sector is performing well, with total exports in May 2025 reaching 7.143 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 35.17% [18][19] Market Performance - A-share market performance included significant gains in the computer, defense, and coal industries, while the food and beverage and home appliance sectors faced declines [1][6] - The banking index saw an overall increase of 11.8% from January 2 to June 13, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.6 percentage points [12] - The electrical equipment sector, particularly transformers and cables, showed robust export growth, with transformers alone achieving a year-on-year increase of 30.25% in May 2025 [18][20] Export Analysis - In May 2025, the inverter exports to Asia reached 2.263 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 30.19%, driven by strong demand from emerging markets like India and Pakistan [14][15] - The electrical equipment exports to Europe remained stable, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.12%, while exports to North America faced challenges due to tariff policies [19][21] - The cable exports in May 2025 amounted to 2.193 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 86.96%, indicating strong demand particularly in the Asian market [22][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable long-term outlook for the renewable energy sector, with increasing global demand for energy storage solutions and electrical equipment, particularly in emerging markets [17][23] - Investors are encouraged to focus on leading companies with strong market positions and successful overseas expansions in the electrical equipment sector [17][23]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "outperforming the market," indicating a projected increase of over 10% relative to the broader market index in the next six months [38]. Core Insights - In May 2025, the total export value of electrical equipment reached 7.143 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month decrease of 9.51% but a year-on-year increase of 35.17%. Cumulative exports from January to May 2025 amounted to 33.277 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 35.53% [1]. - The transformer export market remains stable with a year-on-year high growth, particularly in the Latin American region, which has shown significant recovery [2][13]. - The electric meter exports have seen a slight decline, with the European market maintaining steady growth despite a year-on-year decrease in exports to Asia and Africa [3][21]. - Switch exports have experienced a month-on-month decline but continue to show high year-on-year growth, with all major regions, including Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America, reporting positive year-on-year growth [4][27]. - Cable exports have remained robust, achieving a record high in May, particularly in the Asian market, while maintaining high year-on-year growth across all regions [9][31]. Summary by Category Transformers - In May 2025, transformer exports totaled 3.342 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.80% and a year-on-year increase of 30.25%. Cumulative exports from January to May reached 16.464 billion yuan, up 46.22% year-on-year [2][13]. - Exports to Latin America showed a significant recovery, with a month-on-month increase of 73.75% and a year-on-year increase of 164.24% [14]. Electric Meters - The export value for electric meters in May 2025 was 942 million yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.22% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.36%. Cumulative exports from January to May were 4.404 billion yuan, up 10.50% year-on-year [3][20]. - The European market remains strong, with positive year-on-year growth, while exports to Asia and Africa have declined [21]. Switches - Switch exports in May 2025 amounted to 666 million yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 9.36% but a year-on-year increase of 18.38%. Cumulative exports from January to May reached 3.360 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.85% [4][23]. - The European market has shown stability, with all regions reporting positive year-on-year growth [27]. Cables - Cable exports in May 2025 were 2.193 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 19.37% but a year-on-year increase of 86.96%. Cumulative exports from January to May reached 9.050 billion yuan, up 36.75% year-on-year [9][28]. - The Asian market achieved record high exports, with significant year-on-year growth across all regions [31].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.07% to 3,359.90 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.47% to 10,005.03 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.83% to 2,009.89 points. The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.07 trillion RMB, with net purchases from southbound funds amounting to 1.55 billion HKD. Over 3,400 stocks in the A-share market saw declines [2][6]. - In terms of industry performance, transportation, food and beverage, and banking sectors led the gains, while media and computer sectors faced the largest declines. Among concept sectors, PET copper foil and photolithography concepts showed significant increases, while combustible ice and brain-computer interface concepts experienced notable declines [2][6]. Important News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is seeking public opinion on the revised draft of the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations." The CSRC aims to optimize the classification evaluation system for securities companies, focusing on high-quality development and adjusting scoring mechanisms to enhance evaluation rationality [3][6]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration has revised the "Market Risk Management Measures for Commercial Banks," which no longer includes interest rate risk from bank books. Instead, it focuses on risks arising from adverse changes in interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices, and commodity prices that could affect bank profits and losses. Additionally, the compensation for market risk management personnel should not be linked to direct operating profits [7].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.36%. The total market turnover reached 12,808 billion yuan, an increase of 591 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4,600 stocks declining across the market. Sectors such as oil and gas, short drama games, and the China Shipbuilding Industry Group saw gains, while nuclear fusion and weight loss drug sectors faced losses [2][6]. Important News - The Ministry of Commerce announced on June 19 that it is expediting the review of export license applications related to rare earths, emphasizing the importance of maintaining global supply chain stability and security. The ministry has approved a certain number of compliant applications and will continue to strengthen the approval process for compliance applications [3][7]. Industry Insights - The report highlights the launch of 14 key new mobile games in May 2025, with titles such as "杖剑传说" and "胜利女神：新的希望" performing notably well. The gaming industry is expected to benefit from a stable issuance of game licenses and a favorable market environment, suggesting a positive outlook for new game performances [12][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the deepening reforms of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to enhance the institutional inclusiveness and adaptability for high-quality technology enterprises. The establishment of the "Sci-Tech Growth Layer" aims to support technology companies that are not yet profitable but have significant breakthroughs and commercial prospects. This initiative is seen as a crucial step in building a multi-tiered capital market system [8][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of nurturing emerging and future industries, with a focus on high-level technological self-reliance. It suggests leveraging financial innovation tools and policies to support technology innovation and accelerate the growth of new industries [10][11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the broader market in the next six months [28]. Core Insights - In May 2025, a total of 14 new key mobile games were launched, with standout performances from "杖剑传说" and "胜利女神：新的希望" [2][10]. - "杖剑传说" achieved a peak daily download of 110,436 on May 30, 2025, and generated total iOS revenue of $5,210,438 by June 15, 2025, with a peak daily revenue of $478,432 on June 4, 2025 [3][16]. - "胜利女神：新的希望" reached first place on the App Store free chart on its launch day and accumulated total iOS revenue of $4,576,093 by June 15, 2025, with a peak daily revenue of $643,782 on June 12, 2025 [4][21]. Summary by Sections New Game Releases - In May 2025, 14 new mobile games were launched, including titles from various publishers such as "落日山丘" by 胖布丁游戏 and "热血美职篮" by 腾讯游戏 [2][10]. Game Performance - "杖剑传说" stands out with its unique battle strategy and art style, achieving significant market penetration and high revenue [3][13]. - "胜利女神：新的希望" received positive feedback in the domestic market, optimizing gameplay and community engagement, leading to high download rates [4][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality game developers with innovative capabilities and a rich portfolio of overseas products, as the market environment stabilizes and new game performances are expected to improve [26].