Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [26]. Core Insights - The pre-prepared food industry is experiencing a significant decline in revenue growth, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.43% in 2024, reflecting the severe downturn in the restaurant sector [4][22]. - Despite the revenue slowdown, companies in the pre-prepared food sector, such as Qianwei Yangchu and Sanquan Foods, are maintaining high levels of investment in research and development, with R&D expenses increasing by 31.41% and 21.80% respectively in the first half of 2024 [5][10]. - The gross profit margin for pre-prepared food companies has improved due to a decrease in operating costs, with Qianwei Yangchu's gross margin rising to 25.21% [18]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - In the first half of 2024, Qianwei Yangchu's revenue grew by 4.87%, while Sanquan Foods saw a decline of 4.91%. The overall revenue growth for pre-prepared food companies dropped from 13.09% in the previous year to -1.43% [4][7]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to the weak performance of the restaurant sector, which has a significant impact on B-end businesses [22]. Research and Development - Qianwei Yangchu and Sanquan Foods have increased their R&D spending significantly, ranking third and fourth among pre-prepared food companies in terms of growth [5][10]. - The R&D expense ratio for Qianwei Yangchu reached 1.17%, indicating a strong focus on innovation in a rapidly changing market [10]. Sales and Marketing Expenses - Sales expenses for Qianwei Yangchu increased significantly, with a sales expense ratio of 5.52% in the first half of 2024, reflecting the challenges in the B-end market [13]. - The increase in sales expenses is primarily due to the slowdown in sales growth while maintaining high sales investments [13]. Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin for the pre-prepared food sector improved to 23.84%, driven by a decrease in operating costs [18]. - Qianwei Yangchu's gross margin increased by 1.97 percentage points, while Sanquan Foods experienced a decline due to rising pork prices [18]. Market Dynamics - The domestic restaurant sector is facing a sharp decline in revenue growth, while the export market for meat and seafood remains robust, with significant year-on-year growth [24]. - The shift towards export markets is becoming a strategic focus for many pre-prepared food companies as they seek new growth avenues [24].

Industry Overview - The new materials index fell by 4.79%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which declined by 3.25%. The adjustment in the new materials index post-National Day indicates weaker performance compared to the broader market. Long-term growth is expected in the new materials sector due to increasing demand from China's manufacturing industry, with a focus on semiconductor materials like electronic special gases and photoresists, which have high technical difficulty and low domestic substitution rates [1][14] - The non-ferrous metals index decreased by 6.08%, ranking 22nd among 30 industries. Key sub-sectors such as aluminum, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and lithium saw significant declines. Despite a weak fundamental outlook, expectations for economic recovery are rising, suggesting investment opportunities in copper, aluminum, and gold sectors [1][15] - The light industry manufacturing index dropped by 7.00%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.75 percentage points. The paper sector is experiencing price adjustments due to rising raw material costs, while the home furnishing sector may benefit from supportive real estate policies and consumption incentives [1][16] Specific Sectors Lithium Battery - The lithium battery index fell by 6.70%, underperforming the CSI 300 index. Despite this, there are short-term investment opportunities in the sector based on industry dynamics and price trends [2][12] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index decreased by 7.43%, with all sub-sectors declining. The pig farming sector is expected to see a cyclical rebound, while the pet food sector is experiencing rapid growth [4][18] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector declined by 7.39%, with a recommendation to focus on stable, high-dividend companies and high-growth segments like health products and snacks for investment opportunities in the second half of 2024 [5][19] Securities - The securities index showed a mixed performance with a notable rebound post-National Day, suggesting a good opportunity for right-side positioning in the sector. Attention is recommended for leading brokerages and those with valuations significantly below the sector average [6][21] Automotive - The automotive sector fell by 4.31%, with a focus on the impact of new intelligent models being launched. Investment opportunities are seen in autonomous brands and intelligent components as the sector continues to evolve [7][22] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector decreased by 6.31%, with significant trading volume. Long-term attention is advised for key players in photovoltaic glass, integrated components, and polysilicon materials as the market stabilizes [8][9][22] Power and Utilities - The power and utilities sector fell by 4.33%, with a focus on water and nuclear power companies showing strong profitability. Long-term investment opportunities are suggested for stable, high-dividend companies in these areas [9][10] Media - The media sector dropped by 8.40%, with all sub-sectors declining. Future growth is anticipated in areas benefiting from government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption [10][11] Computer - The computer sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, driven by developments in AI and domestic software systems. Continued attention is warranted for companies involved in these technological advancements [11][12] Communication - The communication sector increased by 8.93%, with significant trading volume and a focus on high-dividend companies. Investment opportunities are seen in telecom operators and optical communication sectors [12][13]

Key Points - The report highlights a 5.3% year-on-year increase in China's goods trade import and export volume for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 32.33 trillion yuan, with exports at 18.62 trillion yuan (up 6.2%) and imports at 13.71 trillion yuan (up 4.1%) [5][7] - The report indicates that the social financing scale for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 25.66 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.68 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, with M2 money supply growing by 6.8% year-on-year [5][7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce measures to promote consumption and expand domestic demand in the fourth quarter, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and the development of new fields such as humanoid robots and 6G technology [5][7] Market Analysis - The financial technology sector is leading the A-share market, which is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index showing average P/E ratios of 13.74 and 33.47, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [6][11] - The report notes that the A-share market is expected to stabilize and rebound due to enhanced macro policy expectations, with significant support from the central government and financial regulators [8][9] - The report suggests that investors should focus on sectors such as finance, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and aerospace military industries for short-term investment opportunities [11][12] Industry Insights - The lithium battery sector saw a 31.99% increase in its index in September 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with China's new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.287 million units, a year-on-year increase of 42.37% [14][15] - The report indicates that the real estate market in Henan province is expected to benefit from new policies aimed at stabilizing the market, including measures to support housing consumption and financial assistance [15][17] - The telecommunications industry is experiencing robust growth, with new business revenues increasing by 10.5% year-on-year, and the demand for 5G services continuing to rise [19][21] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating for the lithium battery sector, considering the industry's growth potential and current market conditions [14][19] - It suggests that the home improvement and renovation sectors will benefit from new policies promoting consumption, with significant potential for growth in the home appliance market [15][16] - The report recommends focusing on key players in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home Group and Sophia, as the market is expected to recover due to supportive policies [19]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened high and experienced slight fluctuations, with the index finding support around 3203 points during the day [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3284.32 points, up 2.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10327.40 points, up 2.65% [5][6] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 13.74 times and 33.47 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][9] Group 2 - Key sectors showing strong performance include banking, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and aerospace defense, while sectors like securities, mining, and tourism hotels lagged [2][5] - The total trading volume for both markets reached 16,494 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [2][9] - The report highlights the impact of new policies aimed at market maturity and long-term confidence, alongside macroeconomic stabilization measures expected to boost the economy [2][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][19]. Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in asset management and achieved high investment returns through self-operated strategies. The asset management business has seen a significant increase in net income and investment income, while brokerage and investment banking revenues have declined [5][19]. - The company is expected to maintain its relative advantage in the market, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.29 yuan and 0.31 yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively, and a book value per share (BVPS) of 4.57 yuan and 4.76 yuan for the same years [5][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.962 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 714 million yuan, up 8.65% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share were 0.15 yuan, reflecting a 7.14% increase [5][7]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 3.33%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year [5][7]. Revenue Composition - The revenue composition for 2024H shows an increase in the proportion of asset management, investment income (including fair value changes), and other income, while brokerage, investment banking, and interest income proportions have decreased [8][10]. - The asset management business net income and investment income (including fair value changes) have increased significantly, with asset management fees rising by 25.22% year-on-year [5][14]. Brokerage and Investment Banking - The brokerage business saw a decline in net income from brokerage fees by 13.29% year-on-year, while institutional brokerage business continued to grow [5][11]. - The investment banking business experienced a significant decline, with net income from investment banking fees down 15.38% year-on-year [5][12]. Asset Management Growth - The company’s asset management business has maintained rapid growth, with the total scale of managed products exceeding 80 billion yuan, an increase of 20 billion yuan from the end of 2023 [5][14]. - The private fund business also saw growth, with managed scale reaching nearly 30 billion yuan, up 7% from the end of 2023 [5][14]. Self-Operated Investment Returns - The company achieved a self-operated investment income (including fair value changes) of 669 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.98% [5][15]. - The company has implemented a multi-strategy and multi-asset allocation approach to achieve high investment returns [5][15]. Margin Financing and Stock Pledge - The margin financing balance decreased slightly to 9.205 billion yuan, with a year-on-year market share increase [5][16]. - The stock pledge balance also decreased to 689 million yuan, down 27.01% from the end of 2023 [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the Market" for the light industry manufacturing sector, indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [14][15]. Core Insights - The introduction of supportive real estate policies in Henan Province is expected to stabilize the real estate market, which will benefit the home furnishing sector as it is part of the post-cycle of real estate [5][11]. - The launch of the home renovation and kitchen and bathroom upgrade subsidy program in Zhengzhou is anticipated to further stimulate consumer spending in home improvement and smart home products [6][12]. - The overall performance of the real estate market in Henan Province has shown positive trends, with key metrics outperforming national averages, suggesting a potential recovery in home furnishing sales [11]. Summary by Sections - **Real Estate Policies**: Henan Province has implemented 20 measures to promote a stable and healthy real estate market, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and increased financial support for housing consumption [5][10]. - **Home Renovation Subsidies**: Zhengzhou has initiated a subsidy program for home renovation materials, covering 11 categories of items, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan per household [10][12]. - **Consumer Spending Trends**: The implementation of the "old for new" policy has led to significant increases in sales for home appliances and related products, with notable growth in sales during the recent holiday period [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the lithium battery industry [4]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector has shown strong performance, with the index rising by 31.99% in September 2024, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which increased by 23.06% during the same period [4][10]. - Sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China reached 1.287 million units in September 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 42.37% and a month-on-month increase of 17.0% [4][14]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring upstream raw material prices, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations as key factors influencing the sector's performance [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The lithium battery index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index in September 2024, with a 31.99% increase compared to 23.06% for the latter [10]. - In September 2024, all stocks in the lithium battery sector rose, with a median increase of 28.39% [10]. 2. New Energy Vehicle Sales and Industry Prices - In September 2024, NEV sales in China reached 1.287 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 42.37% and a month-on-month increase of 17.0% [14]. - The report notes that the sales of NEVs have been supported by improved vehicle cost-performance ratios and favorable policies [14]. 3. Industry and Company News - The report discusses various industry dynamics, including government policies aimed at promoting the replacement of old vehicles with new energy models [47]. - It also mentions Panasonic's announcement regarding the mass production of 4680 cylindrical automotive lithium batteries [47]. 4. Investment Rating and Main Line - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating based on the sector's growth prospects and current market valuations [4]. - It emphasizes the need for investors to focus on leading companies within the sector as individual stock performance may vary significantly [4].

资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -21% -16% -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 2023.10 2024.02 2024.06 2024.10 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,217.74 | -2.55 | | 深证成指 | 10,060.74 | -3.92 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,887.17 | -2.77 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,725.70 | - ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that macro policy adjustments are expected to enhance economic stability and recovery, with significant measures being introduced by the central government and various ministries [2][6][14] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement targeted incremental policies to support local governments in managing debt risks and to stimulate economic growth [6][7] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes a comprehensive approach to implementing a package of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and supporting the real estate market [7][9] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI in September showed a slight recovery, rising to 49.8%, indicating improved conditions for large enterprises, while small and medium enterprises still face challenges [9][12] - The report suggests that the semiconductor, home appliance, consumer, non-bank financial, real estate, and non-ferrous metal sectors are expected to benefit from the anticipated market rebound [14] - The report highlights that the U.S. CPI rose unexpectedly, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates, potentially impacting global market dynamics [2][12] Group 3 - The report notes that the financing balance increased to 1,579.5 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in market liquidity [22] - The latest valuation metrics show that the Shenyin Wanguo A-share index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.7, which is relatively low compared to historical averages, suggesting potential investment opportunities [23][24] - The report identifies that the A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance across various sectors, with some sectors like comprehensive finance and electronics performing better than others such as real estate and consumer services [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In Line with Market" investment rating for the communication industry [5]. Core Insights - The communication industry index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index in September 2024, rising by 23.88% compared to +17.39% for the Shanghai Composite and +20.97% for the CSI 300 [2][9]. - Emerging business revenues for operators showed double-digit growth, with big data business revenue increasing by 61.6% year-on-year [5][35]. - Domestic smartphone shipments increased by approximately 18%, with 5G smartphone shipments accounting for 82.1% of total shipments in August 2024 [5][39]. - The export value of optical modules in China rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 72.2% in August 2024 [5][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The communication industry index rose by 23.88% in September, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [9]. - All sub-sectors within the communication industry saw gains, with network installation and maintenance leading the way [11]. 2. Industry Tracking 2.1 Economic Data Tracking - The industrial value added in China grew by 4.5% year-on-year in August 2024, with the TMT sector growing by 11.3% [17]. - Retail sales of communication equipment increased by 14.8% year-on-year in August 2024 [19]. 2.2 Domestic Telecom Industry Tracking - Telecom business revenue reached CNY 11,732 billion from January to August 2024, a 2.7% increase year-on-year [21]. - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 966 million, accounting for 54.3% of total mobile phone users [23]. 2.3 Domestic Mobile Phone Industry Tracking - Domestic smartphone shipments totaled 24.05 million units in August 2024, a 26.7% increase year-on-year [39]. - The share of domestic brand smartphones reached 92.2% of total shipments in August 2024 [42]. 2.4 Optical Module Industry Tracking - The export value of optical modules in August 2024 was CNY 3.75 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 72.2% [5][37]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The demand for AI computing is driving rapid increases in network communication speeds, with expectations for 1.6T optical modules to begin shipping in Q4 2024 [6]. - The smartphone market is expected to see innovation driven by AI, leading to growth in components such as structural parts and optical devices [6].