Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2]. Core Insights - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index increased by 21.94% in September 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.97 percentage points [4]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across sub-industries, with the agricultural processing sector showing the highest gains, while the aquatic product processing sector lagged behind [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the livestock sector, particularly in pig farming, as prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in the coming quarters [20]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - In September 2024, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index outperformed the CSI 300 index, ranking 17th among 30 industries [4]. - All sub-industries experienced varying degrees of growth, with agricultural processing leading the gains [4]. 2. Livestock Farming 2.1. Pig Farming - The average price of pigs in September 2024 was 19.17 CNY/kg, down 6.26% month-on-month but up 15.90% year-on-year [8]. - The supply of weaned piglets decreased by 2.86% year-on-year from January to September 2024, with a cautious approach to replenishing stock due to concerns over seasonal price drops [8]. - The average price of piglets in September was 34.47 CNY/kg, reflecting a 10% month-on-month decline but a 33.86% year-on-year increase [8]. 2.2. Broiler Chicken - The price of broiler chickens fell to 7.23 CNY/kg in September 2024, a decrease of 5.1% month-on-month and 11.0% year-on-year [17]. - The average loss in broiler farming was 2.8 CNY per bird in September, indicating a worsening profitability situation [19]. 3. Pet Food - Pet food exports in August 2024 reached 28,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 30.68%, with cumulative exports from January to August totaling 216,900 tons, up 28.85% [21]. - The report notes a significant increase in pre-sale performance for pet food brands during the "Double 11" shopping festival, indicating strong market demand [21]. 4. Key Agricultural Product Price Tracking - The report tracks various agricultural product prices, noting fluctuations in corn, wheat, and soybean meal prices during September 2024 [23][26]. 5. Industry Dynamics and Company News - The report includes updates on key events and announcements from listed companies in the agriculture sector, highlighting ongoing developments and strategic moves [28][31].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a high point resistance, showing a mixed performance across various sectors on October 16, 2024 [1][2][5] - Real estate, banking, cement, and electric power sectors performed well, while diversified finance, photovoltaic equipment, semiconductors, and military industries showed weaker performance [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,202.95 points, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9,965.02 points, down 1.01% [6][5] Group 2 - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices were 14.02 times and 34.68 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][9] - The total trading volume for both markets was 1,389.9 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years [2][9] - The report highlights the positive impact of new policies and macroeconomic adjustments, suggesting a potential stabilization and upward trend in the market [2][9] Group 3 - The report recommends investors to focus on short-term investment opportunities in banking, real estate, electric power, and consumer electronics sectors [2][9] - The real estate sector showed a significant increase of 5.70%, while the banking sector rose by 2.50% [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes, funding conditions, and external factors that may influence market dynamics [2][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [15]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with notable performance in the real estate, banking, cement, and electric power sectors, while sectors like diversified finance, photovoltaic equipment, semiconductors, and military industry showed weaker performance [4][7]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 14.02 times and 34.68 times, respectively, which are at the median levels over the past three years, suggesting a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [4][14]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges was 1.3899 trillion yuan, above the median of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [4][14]. - Recent policy announcements, including the "New National Nine Articles," are expected to enhance market maturity and boost long-term confidence [4][14]. - The report anticipates a generally upward trend in stock indices, driven by ongoing macroeconomic adjustments and growth-promoting policies [4][14]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On October 16, the A-share market faced resistance after a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,202.95 points, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9,965.02 points, down 1.01% [7][8]. - The market showed a mixed performance with over 50% of stocks rising, particularly in precious metals, real estate development, and cement sectors, while sectors like diversified finance and semiconductors faced declines [7][10]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should focus on short-term opportunities in banking, real estate, electric power, and consumer electronics sectors [4][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes, funding conditions, and external factors that may impact market performance [4][14].

资料来源：Wind,中原证券 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -20% -15% -10% -5% 1% 6% 11% 16% 2023.10 2024.02 2024.06 2024.10 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,201.29 | -2.53 | | 深证成指 | 10,066.52 | -2.53 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,855.99 | -2.66 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,699.11 | -2.53 | | ...

市场数据(2024-10-14) 收盘价(元) 43.29 一年内最高/最低(元) 49.35/31.64 沪深 300 指数 3,961.34 市净率(倍) 3.75 流通市值(亿元) 1,649.66 基础数据(2024-06-30) 每股净资产(元) 11.54 每股经营现金流(元) 2.83 毛利率(%) 7.74 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) 1.29 资产负债率(%) 61.81 总股本/流通股(万股) 546,535.32/381,071.7 3 畜牧业 分析师：张蔓梓 登记编码：S0730522110001 zhangmz@ccnew.com 13681931564 业绩表现亮眼，成本进一步下降 ——牧原股份(002714)2024 年三季报预告点评 发布日期：2024 年 10 月 15 日 投资要点： 证券研究报告-季报点评 增持(维持) 公司前三季度业绩扭亏为盈，Q3 表现亮眼。根据公司公告，预计 2024 年前 3 季度实现归母净利润 100-110 亿元，同比扭亏为盈 （2023 年同期亏损 18.42 亿元）；扣非后净利润为 115-125 亿元， 同比扭亏为盈（2023 年同期亏损 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the computer industry, indicating a synchronized performance with the broader market [2][12]. Core Insights - The software industry's revenue growth is expected to decline in 2024, with a reported revenue of 8.55 trillion yuan for the first eight months, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year increase, down from 13.4% in 2023 [5][7]. - Profit growth in the software sector has also weakened, with total profits of 1.0226 trillion yuan for the same period, marking a 9.8% increase, which is lower than the revenue growth by 1.4 percentage points [7][9]. - High-performing sub-sectors include IC design, basic software, and cloud and big data services, with IC design growing by 13.8% year-on-year [10][11]. - Huawei has emerged as a leader in the domestic tablet market, surpassing Apple in Q1 2024 with a market share of 26% [17][18]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic software and hardware localization, particularly with the advancement of Huawei's Harmony OS, which has reached a significant milestone with over 9 billion devices and 2.54 million developers [26][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - The software industry's revenue growth is declining, with a reported 11.2% increase in revenue for the first eight months of 2024 compared to 13.4% in 2023 [5][7]. - Profit growth has also decreased, with a total profit of 1.0226 trillion yuan, reflecting a 9.8% increase, which is lower than the revenue growth [7][9]. - High-growth sectors include IC design, basic software, and cloud services, with IC design leading at 13.8% growth [10][11]. News and Announcements - Huawei's Harmony OS is gaining traction, with significant market share and developer engagement, indicating a strong push towards domestic software solutions [26][27]. - The report notes the increasing importance of domestic products in light of international uncertainties, particularly in the context of the recent geopolitical events [24][26]. Investment Strategy - The computer industry saw a significant rise in September, with the CITIC computer index increasing by 35.31%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 17.92 percentage points [48][49]. - The report suggests that the overall market conditions and the performance of the computer sector are likely to remain favorable, driven by macroeconomic policies and increased foreign investment [12][48].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [15]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3285 points, leading to a general downward trend in the afternoon session. Key sectors such as gaming, cultural media, aerospace and military, and decoration performed well, while sectors like securities, mining, automotive, and non-ferrous metals lagged [3][4][7]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently at 14.02 times and 34.68 times, respectively, which are at the median levels over the past three years, suggesting a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [4][14]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 16,518 billion, which is above the median level for the past three years, indicating robust market activity [4][14]. - Recent policy announcements, including the "New National Nine Articles," are expected to enhance market maturity and boost long-term confidence. The Central Political Bureau's meeting has also signaled stronger macroeconomic control expectations for the fourth quarter [4][14]. - The report anticipates that the stock index will maintain a general upward trend, while investors are advised to focus on short-term investment opportunities in gaming, cultural media, decoration materials, and aerospace and military sectors [4][14]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On October 15, the A-share market faced resistance and fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3201.29 points, down 2.53%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,066.52 points, also down 2.53%. The ChiNext 50 Index fell by 2.93%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.22% [7][8]. - Over 80% of stocks declined, with gaming, decoration, and aerospace sectors showing slight increases, while mining, securities, and energy sectors experienced significant declines [7][10]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the stock index is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with a focus on short-term investment opportunities in specific sectors [4][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes, funding conditions, and external factors that may impact market performance [4][14].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3201.29 points, down 2.53%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10066.52 points, also down 2.53% [5][6] - Key sectors that performed well included gaming, cultural media, aerospace and military, and decoration, while sectors such as securities, mining, automotive, and non-ferrous metals showed weaker performance [2][5] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices were 14.02 times and 34.68 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][10] Group 2 - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 16518 billion, which is above the median level for the past three years [2][10] - Recent policy announcements, including the "New National Nine Articles," are expected to enhance market maturity and boost long-term confidence [2][10] - The report suggests investors focus on short-term opportunities in gaming, cultural media, decoration materials, and aerospace and military sectors [2][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Securities (002500) [2][3] Core Views - Shanxi Securities achieved revenue of 1.4 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 26%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 319 million yuan, down 17.96% year-on-year [5] - The company's brokerage, asset management, and investment income (including fair value changes) accounted for a higher proportion of revenue, while investment banking, interest, and other income saw a decline [6] - Brokerage business net revenue increased by 13.96% year-on-year, driven by growth in commission, seat, and distribution net income [7] - Asset management business net revenue grew by 31.97% year-on-year, with a focus on fixed income products [11] - Investment banking business net revenue decreased by 25.16% year-on-year, mainly due to a significant drop in equity financing, while debt financing remained relatively stable [9] - The company's investment income (including fair value changes) decreased by 25.90% year-on-year, as it reduced directional exposure and adopted a low-volatility, low-drawdown strategy [12] - The company's margin financing balance decreased by 11.79% compared to the end of 2023, while stock pledge scale increased by 5.38% [13] Business Performance Summary Brokerage Business - Brokerage business net revenue increased by 13.96% year-on-year to 253 million yuan [7] - The number of investment advisory clients increased by 11.02%, and product AUM grew by 35.4% year-on-year [7] - Commission, seat, and distribution net income increased by 8.50%, 19.44%, and 51.91% year-on-year, respectively [8] Investment Banking Business - Investment banking business net revenue decreased by 25.16% year-on-year to 116 million yuan [9] - Equity financing underwriting amount dropped by 72.33% year-on-year to 280 million yuan [9] - Debt financing underwriting amount decreased by 6.02% year-on-year to 31.032 billion yuan, with the company maintaining a leading position in Shanxi province [9] Asset Management Business - Asset management business net revenue increased by 31.97% year-on-year to 161 million yuan [11] - The company's asset management subsidiary, Shanxi Securities Asset Management, managed a total of 65.93 billion yuan, with private asset management and public fund sizes of 34 billion yuan and 31.9 billion yuan, respectively [11] Investment Business - Investment income (including fair value changes) decreased by 25.90% year-on-year to 738 million yuan [12] - The company reduced directional exposure and adopted a low-volatility, low-drawdown strategy [12] - The company's private equity subsidiary, Shanxi Securities Investment, achieved revenue of 3 million yuan, up 3.64% year-on-year [12] Margin Financing and Stock Pledge - The company's margin financing balance decreased by 11.79% compared to the end of 2023 to 5.976 billion yuan [13] - Stock pledge scale increased by 5.38% compared to the end of 2023 to 1.213 billion yuan [13] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.16 yuan and 0.18 yuan in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with BVPS of 5.04 yuan and 5.18 yuan [15] - The P/B ratio is expected to be 1.21x and 1.18x in 2024 and 2025, respectively [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [26]. Core Insights - The pre-prepared food industry is experiencing a significant decline in revenue growth, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.43% in total revenue for listed companies in Henan province [4][22]. - Despite the revenue slowdown, companies like Qianwei Yangchu maintain high R&D investments, with Qianwei Yangchu's R&D expenses increasing by 31.41% year-on-year [5][10]. - The sales expense ratio for pre-prepared food companies has increased, reflecting the challenges in the B-end market due to declining restaurant consumption [13][18]. - The gross profit margin for pre-prepared food companies has improved due to a decrease in operating costs, with Qianwei Yangchu's gross margin reaching 25.21% [18][24]. - The industry is shifting towards export markets as domestic consumption weakens, with significant growth in meat and seafood exports [24]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - In the first half of 2024, the revenue growth of pre-prepared food companies showed a drastic decline, with Qianwei Yangchu achieving a 4.87% increase while Sanquan Foods experienced a -4.91% decrease [4][7]. - The overall revenue growth for pre-prepared food companies dropped from 13.09% in the previous year to -1.43% [4][7]. R&D Investment - Qianwei Yangchu and Sanquan Foods have maintained high R&D investments, with increases of 31.41% and 21.80% respectively [5][10]. - Qianwei Yangchu's R&D expenses accounted for 1.17% of its revenue, ranking second among its peers [10]. Sales Expenses - The sales expense ratio for Qianwei Yangchu rose to 5.52%, indicating increased costs associated with market expansion efforts [13][18]. - The overall sales expense ratio for pre-prepared food companies has increased due to stagnant sales growth [13]. Gross Profit Margin - The gross profit margin for pre-prepared food companies improved to 23.84%, with Qianwei Yangchu's margin at 25.21% [18][24]. - The improvement in gross margins is attributed to a decrease in operating costs rather than product pricing or efficiency gains [18]. Market Dynamics - The pre-prepared food industry is facing challenges due to weak domestic consumption, prompting companies to explore export opportunities [24]. - Export growth has been significant, with meat exports increasing by 45.1% and seafood exports by 10.4% in the first eight months of 2024 [24].