分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 06 日 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -13% -7% -2% 4% 9% 15% 21% 26% 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 2025.01 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,211.43 | -1.57 | | 深证成指 | | 9,897.12 | -1.89 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,775.16 | -1.18 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,589.44 | -0.97 | | 中证 | 5 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 观望情绪提升 A 股宽幅震荡 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：家电消费行业走强 A 股宽幅震 荡》 2025-01-03 《市场分析：防御行业走强 A 股震荡整固》 2024-12-31 《市场分析：金融煤炭行业走强 A 股小幅上 行》 2024-12-30 联系人： 李智 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 03 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周五（01 月 03 日）A 股市场冲高遇阻、宽幅震荡，早盘股指高开后 快速上行，盘中股指在 3269 点附近遭遇阻力，随后股指震荡回落， 盘中黄金、煤炭、有色金属以及医药等行业表现较好；半导体、软件 开发、互联网服务、通信设备以及证券等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基 本呈现宽幅震荡的运行特征。创业板市场周五震荡回落，创业板成分 指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周五 A 股市场冲高遇阻、宽幅震荡，早盘股指高开后快速上行，盘中 股指在 3269 点附近遭遇阻力，随后股指震荡回落，盘中黄金、煤炭、 有色金属以 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "weaker than the market" with a forecasted decline of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [3][67]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.19% in December 2024, with mixed performances across sub-sectors. Prepared foods, pre-packaged foods, and health products saw significant declines of 12.29%, 4.75%, and 2.08% respectively, while beer, snacks, soft drinks, and meat products increased by 9.74%, 8.68%, 11.3%, and 4.01% respectively [9][11]. - For the entire year of 2024, the food and beverage sector recorded a cumulative decline of 1.61%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which rose by 16.2% [11][12]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector decreased to 20.04 times earnings by December 31, 2024, a 60.99% drop from the peak in 2020, but it improved its ranking among 31 sectors, moving from the bottom to a mid-tier position [22][26]. - Investment in the domestic food manufacturing industry showed a significant increase, with fixed asset investments rising by 24.5% year-on-year from January to November 2024 [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In December 2024, the food and beverage sector fell by 0.19%, with notable declines in prepared foods and health products, while beer and snacks benefitted from seasonal demand [9][11]. - The sector's performance throughout 2024 was predominantly negative, with a cumulative decline of 1.61% despite some sub-sectors showing positive growth [11][12]. 2. Valuation - The food and beverage sector's valuation as of December 31, 2024, was 20.04 times earnings, reflecting a significant decrease from previous highs, yet it improved its relative position among other sectors [22][26]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - In December 2024, 42 out of 127 listed companies in the sector saw their stock prices rise, while 85 experienced declines, indicating a predominantly negative trend [26]. 4. Industry Output and Investment - Fixed asset investments in the food manufacturing sector increased significantly in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24.5% from January to November [30]. - Production of key consumer goods like fresh meat, wine, and beer showed a contraction in output during the same period [31][36]. 5. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in soft drinks, pre-mixed alcoholic beverages, snacks, and yeast sectors for 2025, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [57][61].

——家居行业专题研究 家居 分析师：龙羽洁 登记编码：S0730523120001 longyj@ccnew.com 0371-65585753 家居行业专题报告：地产及消费政策支 持下，家居板块有望受益 证券研究报告-行业专题研究 强于大市(上调) 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 02 日 风险提示：政策不及预期的风险；房地产景气度不及预期的风险；需 求不及预期的风险；行业竞争加剧的风险；原材料价格大幅上涨的风险。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共22页 投资要点： -29% -21% -13% -6% 2% 10% 18% 26% 2024.01 2024.05 2024.08 2024.12 家居 沪深300 家居相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 相关报告 《家居行业深度分析：家居产业链分析之河 南概况》 2024-04-30 联系人：李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号T1 座22 楼 ⚫ 地产及促消费政策持续落地： ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,262.56 points, down 2.66%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,088.06 points, down 3.14% [19] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices is currently at 14.23 times and 36.04 times respectively, which is at the median level over the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [23] - The total trading volume for both markets reached 14,098 billion, which is above the median of the daily trading volume over the past three years [23] Group 2 - The report highlights that over 80% of stocks in the two markets declined, with sectors such as commercial retail, jewelry, food and beverage, and tourism showing positive performance, while sectors like semiconductors, software development, and insurance faced significant declines [6] - The report suggests short-term investment opportunities in the home appliance, food and beverage, and commercial retail sectors [23] - Recent policy signals from the Political Bureau indicate a more proactive macroeconomic policy aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, boosting consumption, and implementing more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [23]

Key Points - The report highlights the significant impact of government policies on economic growth, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and technological self-reliance by 2025 [2][7] - The manufacturing PMI for December is reported at 50.1, indicating a slight decrease, while the non-manufacturing PMI shows an increase to 52.2, suggesting a mixed economic outlook [2][7] - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with defensive sectors showing strength, while financial and coal industries are also performing well [5][8] - The solar photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with a 7.43% decline in December, underperforming compared to the broader market [18] - The report discusses the potential of the 0BB technology in the solar industry, which is expected to drive demand for related equipment and materials [20] - The report suggests that the food and beverage sector is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with only specific segments like liquor and snacks showing positive trends [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the photovoltaic industry relative to the CSI 300 index [16]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant adjustment, with a 7.43% decline in December, underperforming the CSI 300 index. All sub-sectors within the photovoltaic industry saw declines, with the most significant drop in solar cell prices [16][51][52]. - The report highlights the need for structural adjustments in the supply side, as production cuts in polysilicon and silicon wafers are stabilizing prices across the photovoltaic supply chain [4][5][66]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to address "involution" competition and accelerate the construction of new energy bases, which is expected to lead to differentiated competition and technological upgrades in the industry [3][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic industry index saw a significant drop in December, with an average daily trading volume of 25.04 billion yuan, a substantial decrease compared to previous months [51]. - All sub-sectors within the photovoltaic industry experienced declines, with the largest drop in solar cell prices at 19.29% [52]. Industry Dynamics - In November, domestic demand for photovoltaic installations grew steadily, with an increase of 25 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.26%. Cumulatively, from January to November, the total new installations reached 206.30 GW, a 25.88% increase year-on-year [17][40]. - The report notes that the export of solar battery components increased significantly in quantity but decreased in value, indicating a price reduction trend in the overseas market [63]. Key Company Announcements - The report suggests focusing on companies in the photovoltaic glass, integrated component manufacturers, polysilicon materials, and electronic silver paste sectors, particularly those with clear capacity clearance expectations [5][48]. - The report also mentions that the introduction of polysilicon futures is expected to stabilize the market and improve price transparency [60].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3413 points, leading to a decline in the index [4][23] - The performance of various sectors varied, with industries such as liquor, gas, jewelry, and shipping ports showing positive performance, while semiconductor, software development, communication equipment, and securities sectors lagged [4][23] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index is currently at 14.46 times and 37.23 times respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [23] Group 2 - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 13,588 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [23] - Recent policy signals from the Political Bureau meeting suggest a more proactive macroeconomic policy aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, boosting consumption, and implementing more aggressive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [23] - The focus of market dynamics is expected to shift towards domestic macro policies and their impact on market confidence and expectations, with an emphasis on supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrades [23] Group 3 - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the liquor, gas, coal, and shipping port sectors [23] - The report indicates that over 90% of stocks in the two markets declined, with only the gas and liquor industries showing slight increases, while semiconductor and securities sectors saw significant outflows of funds [17][23] - The report highlights the need to closely monitor economic data recovery and external factors affecting the market [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 26.24 CNY per share [78][96] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the large and medium-sized bus market, with a market share of 36.1% in 2023, up 8 percentage points year-on-year [80][63] - The company's new energy bus sales accounted for 40.7% of total sales in 2018, up from 12.1% in 2014 [80][69] - The company's export business has been growing rapidly, with export sales increasing by 78.9% in 2023, accounting for 27.9% of total sales [107][109] - The company's profitability has improved significantly, with net profit increasing by 131.49% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [8][96] Industry Overview - The new energy bus industry has seen strong growth, with cumulative sales of 6-meter and above new energy buses reaching 39,400 units from January to November 2024, up 22.9% year-on-year [1] - The industry is benefiting from policy support, including subsidies for new energy city buses and battery replacements, with subsidies of up to 80,000 CNY per vehicle [72] - The export market for buses has also been growing, with industry exports reaching 55,000 units from January to November 2024, up 38.7% year-on-year [93] Company Performance - The company's revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 24.075 billion CNY, up 27.04% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.432 billion CNY, up 131.49% year-on-year [8] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 12.32%, or 23.9% after adjusting for accounting standards, with overseas business gross margin significantly higher at 31.7% compared to 23% for domestic business [12][13] - The company's operating cash flow has been strong, with net operating cash flow reaching 4.717 billion CNY in 2023, up 45% year-on-year [17] Export Business - The company's export business has been a key growth driver, with export sales reaching 10,200 units in 2023, up 78.9% year-on-year, and accounting for 27.9% of total sales [107][109] - The company's export ASP is nearly double the domestic ASP, contributing to improved profitability [8] - The company has achieved significant export milestones, including the largest single delivery of new energy buses to Chile (214 units) and the largest batch of new energy buses to Europe (250 units to Greece) [6] New Energy and Hydrogen Strategy - The company is actively exploring hydrogen fuel cell solutions, with its fuel cell system platform offering advantages such as low hydrogen consumption (4.43kg/100km for 12-meter buses), long lifespan (11,062 hours with 1.8% decay), and good low-temperature performance [1] - The company has been involved in hydrogen fuel cell bus demonstrations in Zhengzhou, with 423 hydrogen fuel cell buses in operation as of November 2023 [1] - The company's hydrogen fuel cell bus sales are expected to grow significantly, with a target of 5,000 units by 2025 and 20,000 units by 2030 [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 34.424 billion CNY in 2024, up 27.3% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.246 billion CNY, up 78.65% year-on-year [96] - The company's revenue is projected to grow to 46.521 billion CNY by 2026, with net profit reaching 5.022 billion CNY [96] - The company's EPS is expected to be 1.47 CNY in 2024, 1.88 CNY in 2025, and 2.27 CNY in 2026, with a PE ratio of 17.90x, 13.96x, and 11.57x respectively [96]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its future performance [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the energy and power equipment manufacturing industry, focusing on four key areas: source, network, load, and storage. It has a strong historical performance with a revenue CAGR of 15.73% and a net profit CAGR of 34.08% from 2018 to 2023 [2][42]. - The acceleration of ultra-high voltage (UHV) construction and the expansion of external network businesses, including energy storage and hydrogen energy, are expected to drive the company's performance growth [3][6]. - The company has diversified its business segments into six categories: smart distribution and transformation systems, DC transmission systems, smart meters, smart medium-voltage power supply equipment, new energy and system integration, and charging and swapping equipment [47]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a rich history dating back to the 1940s and has evolved into a key subsidiary of the China Electric Equipment Group. It has a clear business focus and extensive experience in electrical equipment design and manufacturing [2][29]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.586 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.11%, while net profit increased by 15.88% to 895 million yuan [2][42]. - The company expects steady revenue growth from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 17.68 billion yuan, 20.20 billion yuan, and 23.21 billion yuan, respectively [6]. Business Segments - The largest revenue contributor in the first half of 2024 was the smart distribution and transformation systems, generating 2.123 billion yuan, accounting for 31.05% of total revenue [47]. - The company has seen rapid growth in its new energy-related businesses, including solar and energy storage, and is actively expanding into the hydrogen energy sector [47]. Market Trends - The report highlights that the UHV construction is entering a peak period, with significant projects planned for the 14th Five-Year Plan, which will enhance the company's market position [57][65]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing investments in the power grid and the acceleration of UHV construction, particularly in the context of the growing demand for renewable energy solutions [6][57].