Group 1 - The A-share market experienced wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3489 points, leading to a decline in the afternoon session [3][7] - The healthcare sector, including pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and medical services, showed strong performance, while sectors like semiconductors, software development, and finance lagged [3][7] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 14.69 times and 39.82 times respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][11] Group 2 - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 25,876 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [3][11] - Recent high-frequency data indicates growth in logistics, exports, and service trade, with signs of stabilization in real estate sales compared to September [3][11] - Investment opportunities are recommended in the automotive, semiconductor, medical services, and pharmaceutical sectors for short-term focus [3][11]

轻工制造 分析师：龙羽洁 登记编码：S0730523120001 longyj@ccnew.com 0371-65585753 包装纸价小幅上涨，家居内销边际改善 ——轻工制造行业月报 发布日期：2024 年 11 月 12 日 投资要点： 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 轻工制造相对沪深 300 指数表现 -30% -23% -16% -9% -2% 5% 12% 19% 2023.11 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 轻工制造 沪深300 资料来源：中原证券，聚源 相关报告 《轻工制造行业专题研究：轻工制造行业 2024 年三季报总结：业绩整体承压，出口相 对较好，需求预期改善》 2024-11-06 《轻工制造行业点评报告：河南省内出台地产 及以旧换新相关政策，家居板块有望受益》 2024-10-14 《轻工制造行业月报：地产政策及以旧换新带 动下，家居板块估值修复可期》 2024-10-10 联系人：马嶔琦 电话： 021-50586973 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10 号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号T1 座22 楼 ⚫ 市场回顾：10 月轻工制造板 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [2][19]. Core Insights - The company's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue increase of 16.24% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 31.68% year-on-year, reflecting improved profitability and cost control measures [3][4]. - The company has shown a significant improvement in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 4.86 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 59.87% [5]. - The company continues to win new projects in the environmental sector, enhancing its market presence and operational capacity [6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 47.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.54% year-on-year [3]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 18.28 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.74 billion yuan, marking a significant recovery compared to earlier quarters [4]. - The company's gross profit margin stands at 42.87%, with a diluted return on equity of 10.52% [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 10.37 billion yuan, 11.01 billion yuan, and 11.67 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 1.61, 1.71, and 1.82 yuan [9][15]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 8.70X in 2024 to 7.73X in 2026, indicating a favorable valuation trend [9][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the lithium battery industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The lithium battery sector has shown stronger performance compared to the CSI 300 index, primarily due to macro policy announcements and market style changes. The overall industry outlook remains positive, with a focus on raw material price trends, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations [1][4]. - In October 2024, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 1.43 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 49.58% and a month-on-month increase of 11.11%, driven by improved vehicle cost-performance and policy support [4][14]. - The report highlights the importance of closely monitoring the performance of leading companies in the sector, as individual stock performance is expected to diverge in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - In October 2024, the lithium battery index fell by 7.11%, while the new energy vehicle index decreased by 6.42%, both outperforming the CSI 300 index, which dropped by 8.58% [10]. - Among individual stocks in the lithium battery sector, 53 stocks rose while 52 fell, with the median increase being 0.17% [10]. 2. New Energy Vehicle Sales and Industry Prices - In October 2024, new energy vehicle sales in China reached 1.43 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 49.58% and a monthly share of 46.84% [14]. - The report notes that the sales of new energy vehicles have been significantly boosted by government policies and the introduction of new models by manufacturers [14]. - The production of power batteries in China reached 54.50 GWh in September 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.70% [28]. 3. Industry and Company News - The report emphasizes the need to focus on the performance of leading companies in the lithium battery sector, as their performance is expected to vary significantly [1]. - The report also discusses the trends in raw material prices, noting fluctuations in lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices, which are currently at 76,000 CNY/ton and 71,000 CNY/ton, respectively [5][38]. 4. Investment Ratings and Main Lines - The report suggests that investors should actively seek opportunities within the lithium battery sector, particularly focusing on leading companies in niche markets [1].

资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2023.11 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,470.07 | 0.51 | | 深证成指 | 11,388.57 | 2.03 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 4,131.13 | 0.66 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,916.38 | 0.67 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [1][12]. Core Insights - The company's non-net profit showed steady growth, with overseas orders for mining machinery reaching a record high [1]. - The company experienced a 15.87% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to a slowdown in its new energy segment [1]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 228 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.32%, attributed to product optimization and efficiency improvements [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, aiming to become a global leader in mining machinery [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.877 billion yuan, down 15.87% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 284 million yuan, up 6.72% [1][4]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 21.26%, driven by product upgrades and operational efficiency [1][6]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 indicates a decline in revenue, with projections of 9.094 billion yuan, 10.023 billion yuan, and 11.219 billion yuan respectively, alongside net profit estimates of 436 million yuan, 557 million yuan, and 661 million yuan [3][4][8]. Market Strategy and Outlook - The company is focusing on the large-scale mining mill wear plate business, establishing a unique database for wear plates and enhancing its service offerings [2]. - The company aims to leverage the "Belt and Road" initiative to expand its international market share and strengthen partnerships with Chinese enterprises [1][2]. - The report highlights the significant market potential for after-market services, particularly in wear parts, which are expected to grow alongside the main equipment market [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the basic chemical industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry is experiencing low levels of prosperity, with a continued decline in the third quarter of 2024 due to falling oil prices and weak downstream demand [2][8] - The industry saw a slight decrease in revenue and profit in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of CNY 1,885.9 billion, down 0.36% year-on-year, and net profit of CNY 108.8 billion, down 7.62% year-on-year [2][8] - Despite the overall downturn, 21 out of 33 sub-industries reported profit growth, particularly in dyeing chemicals, nylon, chlor-alkali, rubber additives, and rubber products [2][12] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Prosperity and Performance - The basic chemical industry is operating at low prosperity levels, with a further decline in the third quarter of 2024 [2][10] - Revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased compared to the previous year, with revenue growth slowing from 1.11% in the first half to -0.36% in the third quarter [8][10] - Among 33 sub-industries, 20 reported revenue growth, while 13 experienced declines, with significant growth in other chemical raw materials and synthetic resins [10][12] 2. Profitability Trends - The overall gross margin for the basic chemical industry was 17.92% in the first three quarters of 2024, showing a slight decline from the previous year [15][18] - The net profit margin decreased to 6.06%, down 0.54 percentage points year-on-year [15][18] - Profitability varied significantly among sub-industries, with some benefiting from cost reductions and demand recovery, while others faced declines due to market pressures [18][19] 3. Financial Indicators - The industry maintained a stable debt-to-asset ratio, with a slight decline in operating cash flow [3][4] - Investment activity in the industry is gradually slowing, which may alleviate future capacity pressures [3][4] - Inventory turnover days decreased slightly, indicating improved operational efficiency [3][4] 4. Regional Performance - Chemical enterprises in Henan province performed better than the overall industry, with revenue of CNY 57.7 billion and a net profit of CNY 4.0 billion in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines, including demand recovery in real estate-related products such as titanium dioxide and polyurethane [4] - Limited downward space for international oil prices and potential profitability from alternative routes like coal chemical and light hydrocarbon chemical are highlighted [4] - The tight supply of phosphate rock in China is expected to support price increases in the phosphate chemical industry [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend on November 11, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,470.07 points, up 0.51% [6][7] - The ChiNext Index outperformed the main board, closing up 3.05% [6][7] - Key sectors showing strong performance included automotive, semiconductors, cultural media, and internet services, while sectors like aviation, banking, food and beverage, and coal showed weaker performance [2][6] Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index are 14.63 times and 38.64 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][11] - Total trading volume on November 11 was 25,471 billion, above the median of the past three years [2][11] - Recent high-frequency data indicates growth in logistics, exports, and service trade, with October real estate sales showing signs of stabilization compared to September [2][11] - The market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, with significant sector rotation anticipated due to strong policy expectations [2][11] - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the automotive, semiconductor, communication equipment, and internet services sectors [2][11]

Industry Overview - The lithium battery index increased by 11.43%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, indicating strong investment opportunities in the sector [1] - The chemical industry index rose by 6.96%, with recommendations to focus on titanium dioxide, polyurethane, and other related sectors [1][9] - The new materials index saw an increase of 8.55%, with a notable rise in lithium chemical products, suggesting continued growth in demand for new materials [1][10] - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 7.49%, with specific attention to the packaging and entertainment sectors due to rising demand [1][12] - The food and beverage sector rose by 7.24%, with significant growth in pre-processed foods and health products, indicating a robust market [1][14] - The pharmaceutical sector increased by 6.42%, with a focus on traditional Chinese medicine and innovative drug companies for long-term investment [2][16] - The securities sector saw a strong performance with a 14.48% increase, suggesting a favorable environment for brokerage firms [3][20] - The electric power and utilities sector rose by 1.99%, with a focus on renewable energy and stable dividend-paying companies [4][21] - The media sector increased by 7.53%, with expectations for recovery driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumer demand [5][24] - The computer industry led with a 14.89% increase, driven by financial technology stocks and government stimulus measures [6][27] Sector-Specific Insights Lithium Battery - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a significant increase in demand, with a 23.4% year-on-year growth in global electric vehicle battery installations [1][7] - Key price movements include battery-grade lithium carbonate at 76,000 CNY/ton, indicating a 2.7% increase [1][7] Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is benefiting from supportive government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with all 33 sub-industries showing growth [1][9] - Investment focus includes sectors related to real estate and light hydrocarbons [1][9] New Materials - The new materials sector is expected to grow as manufacturing demand increases, with specific attention to semiconductor materials and high-precision diamond materials [1][10] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry is seeing a recovery in demand, particularly in packaging and home goods, supported by government policies [1][12] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector is characterized by structural growth opportunities, particularly in health and convenience products [1][14][15] Pharmaceutical - The pharmaceutical sector is focusing on mergers and acquisitions, with a strong performance in traditional Chinese medicine and innovative drugs [2][16][17] Securities - The securities sector is experiencing a structural rally, with head brokerage firms showing significant gains and a favorable outlook for the fourth quarter [3][20] Electric Power and Utilities - The electric power sector is stable, with a focus on renewable energy sources and companies with strong dividend yields [4][21] Media - The media sector is expected to benefit from government initiatives aimed at stimulating consumer spending, with a focus on gaming and publishing [5][24] Computer - The computer industry is seeing rapid growth, particularly in liquid cooling servers, with a projected CAGR of 47.6% from 2023 to 2028 [6][27]

资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2023.11 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,452.30 | -0.53 | | 深证成指 | 11,161.70 | -0.66 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 4,104.05 | -1.00 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,890.19 | - ...