Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, emphasizing the potential for growth driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and computing power [23][59]. Core Insights - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference highlights a shift towards "Artificial Intelligence+" as a key focus area, with an emphasis on large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies and products [7][13]. - There is a significant increase in provincial-level policies aimed at enhancing computing power infrastructure, with many regions setting ambitious targets for computing capacity and intelligent computing ratios [18][22]. - The report indicates a strong trend towards domestic production and innovation, particularly in AI and computing technologies, as evidenced by the increasing number of provincial action plans and pilot projects [12][26]. Summary by Sections Central Economic Work Conference - The conference emphasizes strengthening foundational research and key technologies, with a focus on major technological projects and the removal of previous supply chain concerns [12][25]. - The report notes a shift in priorities, with consumption and investment taking precedence over technological innovation in the economic agenda for 2024 [31]. Local Computing Power Policies - Various provinces have released detailed plans to enhance their computing power, with specific targets such as reaching 10 EFLOPS in Hunan by 2025 and 14.6 EFLOPS in Anhui [19][22]. - The report highlights the importance of intelligent computing, with provinces like Henan leading in intelligent computing ratios, followed by economically developed regions [22][18]. Local AI Action Plans - Numerous provinces have introduced action plans for AI development, aiming to foster a robust AI industry with significant economic contributions, such as Hunan's goal to exceed 100 billion yuan in AI industry scale by 2026 [45][51]. - The report identifies pilot cities for data annotation, which are expected to drive regional AI ecosystem development [51][52]. Investment and Innovation - The report underscores the importance of enhancing investment efficiency and supporting innovative enterprises through multi-layered financial services and patient capital [8][33]. - It notes that the government is likely to increase support for early-stage technology companies, which will benefit from favorable policies and funding [8][33].

Company Overview - Closing price: 36.29 yuan [1] - Gross margin: 23.28% [2] - Total shares outstanding: 868.6447 million, with 854.4959 million in circulation [3] - Market capitalization: 31.01 billion yuan [20] - Price-to-book ratio: 3.02x [33] - Earnings per share (EPS): 1.52 yuan (2022A), 1.46 yuan (2023A), 1.57 yuan (2024E), 1.80 yuan (2025E), 2.05 yuan (2026E) [22][37] - Net asset value per share: 12.01 yuan [34] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 47.72% [35] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: 3.738 billion yuan, up 27.17% YoY, driving full-year growth [3] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024: 10.912 billion yuan, up 13.05% YoY [3] - Overseas sales grew 17.89%, while domestic sales increased only 0.89% [3] - Sales expenses rose 14.32% YoY, in line with overseas revenue growth [11] - Cost pressures remain high, with a 15.13% increase in costs, outpacing revenue growth [28] - Gross margin declined by 1.39 percentage points to 23.28% [28] Investment Rating and Valuation - Investment rating: Maintained as "Overweight" [36] - Predicted EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 1.57 yuan, 1.80 yuan, and 2.05 yuan, respectively [37] - P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026: 23.14x, 20.15x, and 17.70x, respectively [37] - Revenue growth forecast: 10.45% (2024E), 12.86% (2025E), 12.23% (2026E) [22] - Net profit growth forecast: 7.24% (2024E), 14.87% (2025E), 13.81% (2026E) [22] Industry and Market Context - The company operates in the food and beverage sector [13][23][39] - Overseas markets are driving growth, with significant expansion efforts [3][11] - Domestic market recovery remains slow, with minimal growth [3] - Raw material costs, particularly for sugar molasses, are expected to decline, potentially easing cost pressures in future quarters [28] Financial Projections - Revenue projections: 15.000 billion yuan (2024E), 16.929 billion yuan (2025E), 18.999 billion yuan (2026E) [22] - Net profit projections: 1.362 billion yuan (2024E), 1.565 billion yuan (2025E), 1.781 billion yuan (2026E) [22] - Operating cash flow: 1.815 billion yuan (2024E), 1.894 billion yuan (2025E), 2.350 billion yuan (2026E) [31] - Capital expenditures: -1.464 billion yuan (2024E), -1.161 billion yuan (2025E), -1.245 billion yuan (2026E) [31]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 -14% -9% -3% 2% 7% 13% 18% 24% 2023.12 2024.04 2024.08 2024.12 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,370.03 | -0.36 | | 深证成指 | 10,649.03 | 0.61 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,945.46 | 0.09 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,729.63 | 0.23 | | 中证 500 | 5, ...

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Cautious Accumulate" [16][28]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline, with Q3 2024 revenue at 1.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.53%, and a year-to-date revenue of 4.647 billion yuan, down 8.27% year-on-year [16]. - Despite the revenue drop, the company's gross profit margin increased by 0.51 percentage points to 23.81% due to a greater decline in costs compared to revenue [16]. - The reduction in sales and R&D expenses led to an increase in net profit margin to 9.36%, up 0.29 percentage points [16]. Financial Data Summary - The company’s market capitalization is 11.23 billion yuan [6]. - The price-to-book ratio is 2.23 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.37 yuan, 0.40 yuan, and 0.42 yuan respectively [16][21]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios corresponding to the current stock price of 7.02 yuan are 18.74, 17.54, and 16.57 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [16][21]. - The company’s net asset return (ROE) is 8.62% [11].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a low opening followed by a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,370.03 points, down 0.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.61% to 10,649.03 points [7][18] - The semiconductor, communication equipment, consumer electronics, and computer equipment sectors performed well, while sectors such as retail, coal, liquor, and oil showed weaker performance [7][18] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 14.32 times and 37.32 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [18] Group 2 - The total trading volume for both markets reached 14,650 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [18] - Recent policy signals from the Political Bureau meeting suggest a more proactive macroeconomic policy aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, boosting consumption, and implementing more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [18] - The focus of market dynamics is expected to shift towards domestic macro policies and their impact on market confidence and expectations, with an emphasis on supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrades [18] Group 3 - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the communication equipment, semiconductor, consumer electronics, and computer equipment sectors [18]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 -14% -9% -3% 2% 8% 13% 18% 24% 2023.12 2024.04 2024.08 2024.12 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,382.21 | 0.62 | | 深证成指 | 10,584.27 | 0.44 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,941.89 | 0.51 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,721.00 | 0.63 | | 中证 500 | 5,8 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [3][11][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the new energy installed capacity will continue to grow rapidly in 2025, aligning with global energy transition trends and carbon neutrality goals. Traditional coal power will still play a crucial role as a backup energy source, while nuclear power is positioned for accelerated approval and construction, benefiting from technological advancements and improved safety [2][8]. - The report highlights the significant progress in the market-oriented reform of the electricity sector, with market transactions accounting for over 60% of total electricity traded since 2022, indicating a continuous upward trend [7][8]. - The construction of a new energy system is accelerating, with expectations that by the end of 2025, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power will reach 1.55 billion kilowatts, contributing to a green and low-carbon transformation of the power system [6][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report outlines that by the end of 2024, the total installed capacity of wind and solar power in Henan Province reached 6,549 MW, accounting for 44.8% of the total installed capacity, which supports the province's transition to a greener energy structure [6]. - The national energy work conference has set the direction for the development of the electricity and energy sector in 2025, focusing on the integration of new energy systems and the construction of a new power system [3][8]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the marketization of electricity trading has shown significant results, with the proportion of market transactions increasing from 60.8% in 2022 to 62.2% in 2024 [7]. - The implementation of the Energy Law on January 1, 2025, will further enhance the market structure and regulatory framework for the energy sector, promoting deeper market-oriented reforms [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to focus on high-dividend, low-valuation assets, particularly large hydropower and nuclear power companies, which are expected to maintain stable profitability and good growth prospects [8].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [19]. Core Insights - The A-share market showed a slight upward trend on December 18, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,382.21 points, up 0.62%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,584.27 points, up 0.44% [7][8]. - Key sectors performing well included semiconductors, communication equipment, consumer electronics, and electricity, while tourism, retail, food and beverage, and agriculture sectors lagged [18]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 14.24 times and 37.08 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [18]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges was 13,755 billion, above the median of the past three years, reflecting active market participation [18]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - The A-share market opened high and experienced slight fluctuations, with the index facing resistance around 3,393 points during the day [7][18]. - Over 60% of stocks in the market rose, with notable gains in sectors such as semiconductors and communication services [7][18]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that the market will maintain a fluctuating upward trend, driven by supportive macroeconomic policies and ongoing reforms aimed at enhancing investor returns and promoting technological innovation [18]. - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as communication equipment, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and electricity [18].

Industry Overview - The new materials index decreased by 1.89%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which fell by 1.01%, indicating a slightly weaker performance in the industry [2][10] - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 3.54%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.55 percentage points, ranking 4th among 30 major industries [12][13] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 1.99%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3 percentage points, with all sub-sectors showing varying degrees of increase [16][17] - The securities index fell by 2.05%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.04 percentage points, indicating a short-term weakening trend [22][23] - The photovoltaic industry dropped by 2.95%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, with a total trading volume of 1226.58 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous period [25][27] - The electric power and public utilities sector decreased by 0.18%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.83 percentage points, with stable performance across various sub-sectors [29][30] - The media sector increased by 3.18%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.19 percentage points, with significant growth in AI applications and film sectors [32][33] - The electronics index rose by 0.30%, showing overall stronger performance than the market, with specific sub-sectors like optical and consumer electronics performing well [36][41] New Materials - The new materials sector is highly valued by the government, with a focus on technological innovation to drive development [2][10] - Recommendations include focusing on semiconductor materials with high technical difficulty and low domestic substitution rates, such as electronic special gases and photoresists [2][10] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing sector is experiencing price increases, particularly in the paper industry, with major manufacturers raising prices [12][13] - The housing market policies are showing positive effects, leading to improved sales in certain regions and stimulating demand in the home goods sector [12][13] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The sector is benefiting from a cyclical rebound in pig farming and steady growth in the pet food segment [16][17] - The price trends in pig farming indicate a potential for recovery in profitability due to reduced feed costs and improved market conditions [19][20] Securities - The securities sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle as macroeconomic conditions improve, with a focus on leading brokerage firms and those with significant wealth management capabilities [22][23] Photovoltaic - The photovoltaic sector is anticipated to see a gradual alleviation of vicious competition, with a focus on leading companies in the main and auxiliary material fields [25][27] Electric Power and Public Utilities - The sector is characterized by its stability and defensive nature, with recommendations to focus on strong-performing water and nuclear power companies [29][30] Media - The media sector is expected to benefit from favorable tax policies for cultural enterprises transitioning to corporate status, enhancing profitability [32][33] Electronics - The electronics sector is witnessing rapid growth in AI-related products, with recommendations to focus on AI glasses and headphones as well as the AI computing power supply chain [36][41]

资料来源：Wind,中原证券 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 -14% -9% -3% 2% 8% 13% 18% 24% 2023.12 2024.04 2024.08 2024.12 上证指数 深证成指 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,361.49 | -0.73 | | 深证成指 | 10,537.43 | -0.35 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,922.03 | 0.26 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,697.87 | 0.48 | | 中证 5 ...