Core Insights - The report highlights a significant policy shift with the central bank implementing a simultaneous reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, aiming to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the financial market [2][3] - The central political bureau meeting indicates a strong commitment to stabilizing the economy, with plans to enhance fiscal and monetary policy measures, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and support for the real estate market [3][4] - The A-share market has shown resilience, with growth in sectors such as internet services, real estate, and consumer goods, while maintaining low valuation levels suitable for long-term investment [5][6][7] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,087.53, with a daily increase of 2.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 6.71% to 9,514.86 [1] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 12.85 and 27.84, respectively, indicating that the market remains undervalued compared to historical averages [5][6] International Market Performance - Major international indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced slight declines, while the Hang Seng Index saw a notable increase of 3.55% [2] Economic Indicators - From January to August 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 46,527.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [3] - The electricity consumption in August 2024 increased by 8.9% year-on-year, indicating a robust demand for energy [16] Industry Analysis - The electric power and utilities sector is experiencing stable growth, with significant investments in power generation and grid infrastructure, particularly in the transmission and transformation segments [9][16] - The automotive industry is witnessing a surge in new energy vehicle sales, with a penetration rate of 44.8% in August 2024, and a strong performance in exports, particularly for new energy vehicles [11][10] - The food and beverage sector has shown signs of recovery, with a notable increase in stock prices driven by favorable monetary policies, despite a challenging year-to-date performance [12][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as semiconductors, internet services, and renewable energy for short-term investment opportunities, given the current market conditions and policy support [5][8] - In the automotive sector, the emphasis is on companies with strong product cycles and global expansion capabilities, particularly in the context of the ongoing transition to electric vehicles [11][10]

Lithium Battery - The lithium battery index increased by 18.45%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1] - The report suggests actively monitoring investment opportunities in the lithium battery sector due to favorable industry conditions and price trends [1] New Materials - The new materials index rose by 16.93%, surpassing the CSI 300 index which increased by 15.70% [5] - Sub-sectors such as lithium battery chemicals (23.63%) and industrial gases (18.28%) showed significant growth [5] - The report highlights potential rebounds in the new materials sector due to recent fiscal policies and suggests focusing on high-tech and domestically produced semiconductor materials [6] Nonferrous Metals - The nonferrous metals index increased by 12.98%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 15.70% [7] - Lithium (23.25%) and nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony (18.73%) were among the best-performing sub-sectors [7] - The report indicates that despite weak fundamentals, there is an enhanced expectation of economic recovery, suggesting investment opportunities in copper, aluminum, and minor metals [8] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing index rose by 15.74%, slightly outperforming the CSI 300 index [9] - Sub-sectors such as home furnishings (18.95%) and cultural light industry (16.65%) performed well [9] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the paper and home furnishings sectors due to expected demand recovery and supportive policies [10] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index increased by 15.36%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index [11] - The report suggests monitoring the pig farming sector for potential rebounds and highlights the growth in the white feather chicken market [11] - It notes that the overall profitability of the breeding industry is expected to improve in 2024 due to supply tightening [11] Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical index rose by 15.42%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [12] - Sub-sectors such as medical services (22.20%) and medical devices (16.53%) showed strong performance [12] - The report advises short-term focus on consumer-related stocks affected by macroeconomic policies and long-term interest in traditional Chinese medicine and innovative drugs [14] Securities - The securities index experienced a significant rebound, increasing by 24.91%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [16] - The report indicates a favorable environment for the securities sector due to recent policy announcements aimed at boosting market confidence [17] - It suggests that if the securities index can stabilize or correct, it may present a good opportunity for right-side positioning [17] Machinery - The machinery sector index rose by 13.34%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [18] - Sub-sectors such as lithium battery equipment and photovoltaic equipment showed strong performance [18] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the renewable energy equipment sector due to significant rebound potential [19] Automotive - The automotive sector index increased by 11.08%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index [20] - The report highlights the impact of the vehicle replacement policy, with over 1.13 million applications for subsidies [20] - It suggests continued attention to the smart vehicle segment and opportunities in commercial vehicles driven by policy support [20]

Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau meeting signals a potential economic stabilization and recovery, emphasizing the need for increased counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policy adjustments [5][6][7] - The meeting highlighted the importance of issuing long-term special government bonds and local government special bonds to enhance government investment [6][7] - The meeting also called for a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and significant interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy [6][7] Group 2 - Multiple significant policies were introduced by the central bank, financial regulatory authority, and securities regulatory commission to support economic growth and stabilize the capital market [2][3][6] - The central bank plans to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [7][8] - The policies include lowering existing mortgage rates and unifying the minimum down payment ratio for first and second homes to stimulate the real estate market [8][9] Group 3 - The U.S. core PCE price index for August met expectations, indicating a potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [16][17] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of the year, depending on economic conditions [16][17] Group 4 - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as semiconductors, home appliances, consumer goods, real estate, and non-ferrous metals as potential investment opportunities due to the anticipated market stabilization [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market" for the electrical equipment sector [5]. Core Insights - The electrical equipment sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index in September, with the sector index rising by 10.80%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index's increase of 11.51% by 0.71 percentage points [5][10]. - Industrial production showed stable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in industrial added value from January to August 2024, and fixed asset investment reaching 329,385 billion yuan, up 3.4% [5][13]. - Electricity consumption continued to rise steadily, with total electricity consumption reaching 6.56 trillion kWh from January to August 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [5][19]. - Investment in power generation and grid projects maintained growth, with power generation investment at 497.6 billion yuan (up 5.1% year-on-year) and grid investment at 333 billion yuan (up 23.1% year-on-year) [5][29]. - Exports of electrical equipment remained high, with transformers, wires and cables, and high-voltage switches seeing year-on-year export growth of 38.4%, 16.8%, and 26.9%, respectively [5][33]. - The overall demand for electrical equipment is expected to improve in the future, supported by ongoing upgrades in global power infrastructure and sustained domestic grid investment [5][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The electrical equipment sector's performance in September was weaker than the CSI 300 index, ranking 20th among the CITIC first-level industries [10][12]. 2. Macroeconomic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for August 2024 was 49.1%, indicating a slight decline in manufacturing activity, with all five sub-indices below the critical point [16][17]. 3. Electrical Equipment - The total installed power generation capacity reached approximately 3.13 billion kW, with a year-on-year growth of 14.0% [19][21]. - The average utilization hours for power generation equipment decreased by 103 hours compared to the previous year [21]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the increasing number of tenders in the power grid sector, with significant procurement activities from State Grid and Southern Power Grid [38][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly highlighting the strong performance of domestic brands and the ongoing effects of the vehicle replacement policy [4][5]. Core Insights - The automotive market showed a retail sales increase of 10% in September, with a total of 1.243 million passenger vehicles sold, and a year-to-date total of 14.709 million units, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth [4][5]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 44.8% in August, with NEV sales growing by 30% year-on-year [4][43]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new model launches and the impact of the vehicle replacement policy, which has seen over 1.13 million applications for subsidies [4][5]. Market Review - **Market Performance**: The automotive sector index rose by 7.98% in September, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [9][10]. - **Stock Performance**: A total of 197 stocks in the automotive sector increased in value, with notable gains from companies like Hunan Tianyan (+34.51%) and Shuanglin Shares (+31.38%) [11][12]. - **Valuation**: The automotive sector's PE ratio stands at 20.82, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages [13]. Industry Overview - **Passenger Vehicles**: Domestic brands have shown strong sales, with a market share increase to 63.2% in the first eight months of 2024, up from 54.2% [32][34]. - **Commercial Vehicles**: The commercial vehicle sector saw a 1.4% increase in sales in August, with significant growth in bus sales [37][39]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: NEV sales reached 1.1 million units in August, with a cumulative total of 7.037 million units sold in the first eight months of 2024, marking a 30.9% increase year-on-year [43][52]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic brands with strong product cycles and global expansion capabilities, as well as opportunities in the smart vehicle components sector linked to companies like Huawei and Xiaomi [4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperforming the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 over the next six months [36]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 1.3% in August 2024, continuing the downward trend from previous months, with a cumulative drop of 15.06% from January to August 2024. All sub-sectors, except for soft drinks, saw declines, with pre-processed foods, snacks, and health products down 28.04%, 27.53%, and 23.9% respectively [4][6]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector has further decreased, with a static P/E ratio of 13.02x as of August 31, 2024, marking a 71.47% decline from the peak in 2020 and the lowest level in a decade [4][12]. - Despite the overall decline, some individual stocks showed positive performance, with 34 out of 127 listed companies recording gains, indicating a market shift back to fundamentals [4][19]. - Investment growth in the food and beverage manufacturing sector has been robust, with a 26.1% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment from January to August 2024 [21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance has been weak, with a cumulative decline of 15.06% from January to August 2024, while the CSI 300 index fell by 3.06% during the same period [4][6]. - In August 2024, the sector's decline slowed, with some sub-sectors like condiments and snacks showing positive growth of 3% and 2.87% respectively [6][8]. Valuation - As of August 31, 2024, the food and beverage sector's static P/E ratio is 13.02x, significantly lower than the 2020 peak, and ranks among the lowest in the last decade [12][21]. Investment Trends - The food and beverage manufacturing sector has seen a significant increase in investment, with a 21.1% year-on-year growth in the beverage and tea manufacturing sector from January to August 2024 [21]. - The report recommends focusing on emerging categories such as health products, soft drinks, and snacks, as well as the yeast sector benefiting from falling sugar prices [5][33]. Production and Imports - The production of key food items like white liquor, beer, and dairy products has shown negative growth trends in 2024, while fresh meat production has increased significantly [24][25]. - Import trends indicate a decline in the quantity of several key commodities, including corn and palm oil, with a notable decrease in imports of fish oil and other dairy products [26][27]. Pricing Trends - Prices for certain commodities like nuts and pork have rebounded, while others like raw milk and sugar molasses continue to decline [28][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][28]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in proprietary trading and investment income, while public fund income has slightly decreased. The overall performance is expected to improve due to favorable market reforms [5][23]. - The company achieved a total operating income of 11.778 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.362 billion yuan, down 3.88% year-on-year [5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported operating income of 11.778 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.362 billion yuan, down 3.88% year-on-year. Basic earnings per share were 0.52 yuan, a decline of 7.14% [5][8]. - The weighted average return on equity was 3.39%, a decrease of 0.45 percentage points year-on-year [5][8]. Business Segments - The proportion of net income from investment banking and investment income (including fair value changes) has increased, while the shares of brokerage, asset management, interest, and other income have decreased [9][23]. - The company’s brokerage business net income was 2.762 billion yuan, down 8.60% year-on-year, but the market share of stock trading volume has increased [11][23]. - The company completed equity financing of 6.945 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.08% year-on-year, while debt financing increased significantly by 64.63% to 152.428 billion yuan [13][23]. - The asset management business saw a slight decline in public fund income contribution, with net income from asset management down 19.22% year-on-year [17][23]. Investment Performance - The company achieved a significant increase in investment income (including fair value changes) of 3.778 billion yuan, up 28.59% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in both equity and fixed income proprietary trading [20][23]. - The company’s total assets as of June 30, 2024, were 6893.28 billion yuan, with total equity of 1407.03 billion yuan [2][5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from capital market reforms aimed at increasing the development of equity funds and enhancing long-term capital inflows, which may drive overall performance back into an upward trajectory [5][23]. - EPS is projected to be 0.77 yuan for 2024 and 0.84 yuan for 2025, with corresponding P/B ratios of 0.90 and 0.85 based on the closing price of 13.92 yuan on September 26, 2024 [5][23].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant upward trend on September 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,087.53 points, up 2.89%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 6.71% to 9,514.86 points [5][6] - The market showed strong performance in sectors such as liquor, internet services, securities, software development, and real estate, while gold, banking, oil, and coal sectors lagged behind [2][5] Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently at 12.85 times and 27.84 times, respectively, which are below the median levels of the past three years, indicating a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][10] - The total trading volume on September 27 reached 14,562 billion yuan, which is above the median trading volume of the past three years, suggesting increased market activity [2][10] - The recent "New National Nine Articles" policy aims to mature the market and boost long-term investor confidence, with the Central Political Bureau emphasizing the need to enhance capital market support and facilitate the entry of long-term funds [2][10] - The People's Bank of China has announced measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to stimulate the domestic economy and support stock market development [2][10] - Investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as securities, insurance, new energy, internet services, and semiconductors for short-term investors [2][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 over the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a cumulative increase of 17.57% from September 24 to September 26, 2024, driven primarily by recent positive monetary and fiscal policies [5][6]. - The recent monetary policy announcements included a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, provision of approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, and a 0.2% decrease in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5% [5]. - The Politburo meeting on September 26 emphasized the importance of economic policies, indicating a more proactive approach to address current economic challenges [6][7]. - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low valuation of 15 times earnings, suggesting potential for recovery as the market environment becomes more favorable [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance is closely linked to economic trends, with the white liquor segment showing a significant increase of 19.68% during the recent market rally [5][7]. - The overall market sentiment reflects positive expectations regarding economic stabilization and consumer recovery [7]. Policy Impact - The combination of monetary easing and supportive fiscal measures is expected to enhance consumer spending and stabilize employment in related sectors [5][6]. - Future policies are anticipated to continue supporting the food and beverage industry, particularly in light of the recent monetary policy adjustments [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended sectors for investment include health products, soft drinks, baked goods, snacks, and other alcoholic beverages, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [7]. - The yeast sector is expected to benefit from declining molasses prices, while the white liquor sector is projected to rebound due to interest rate cuts [7].

分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 zhangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 券商板块 2024 年 8 月回顾及 9 月前瞻 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 证券Ⅱ相对沪深 300 指数表现 -21% -17% -14% -10% -7% -3% 1% 4% 2023.09 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 资料来源：聚源、中原证券研究所 相关报告 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2024 年 7 月 回顾及 8 月前瞻》 2024-08-27 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2024 年 6 月 回顾及 7 月前瞻》 2024-07-26 《证券Ⅱ行业半年度策略：估值逼近历史低 位，盈利见底复苏可期》 2024-07-08 联系人：马钦琦 电话： 021-50586973 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号16 楼 邮编： 200122 证券Ⅱ ——券商板块月报 发布日期：2024 年 09 月 27 日 券商板块 2024 年 8 月行情回顾：8 月券商指数整体处于回落调整 态势。中信二级行业指数证券Ⅱ全月下跌 ...