行业周观点 中原证券行业周观点 —2024 年第四十期：10 月 28 日-11 月 1 日 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 分析师：牟国洪 | 发布日期： 2024 年 11 月 3 日 摘要 ： | | 登记编码： S0730513030002 | ⚫ 锂电池 | | 分析师：顾敏豪 | 本期锂电池指数下跌 3.72% ，板块跑输沪深 300 指数。结合行业景气度、产业链价格 | | 登记编码： S0730512100001 | 及市场走势，短期建 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in October rose to 50.1%, indicating a return to expansion after five months of contraction, with large enterprises showing a PMI of 51.5% [2][8] - The new orders PMI increased to 50.0%, suggesting a recovery in manufacturing market demand, while new export orders fell to 47.3% [2][8] - The production PMI rose to 52.0%, marking a continuous improvement for two months, reflecting better production conditions [2][8] Group 2 - China's total import and export value in September was 3.75 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, while exports grew by 1.6% [11] - The CPI in September increased by 0.4% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.8%, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [14][16] - The retail sales of consumer goods in September reached 4.11 trillion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year, with significant contributions from home appliances and cultural products [17][18] Group 3 - The central bank continued its counter-cyclical adjustments, with the LPR for one year and five years dropping by 25 basis points to 3.10% and 3.60% respectively, aimed at stabilizing economic growth [20][21] - The social financing stock in September grew by 8% year-on-year, primarily supported by government bonds, while corporate and household financing demand remained weak [22][23]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a notable resistance at 3305 points, while sectors such as non-ferrous metals, banking, energy metals, and liquor performed well [3][7] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 13.90 times and 36.31 times respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][11] - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 22,683 billion, which is above the median of the past three years, reflecting a healthy market activity [3][11] Group 2 - The report highlights that the recent policies from the central government and financial regulators are expected to stabilize the economy and boost market confidence [3][11] - The sectors showing significant inflows include non-ferrous metals, banking, energy metals, and liquor, while software development and semiconductor sectors faced notable outflows [7][10] - The report suggests that investors should focus on short-term opportunities in non-ferrous metals, banking, energy metals, and liquor sectors [3][11]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing structural employment challenges in China, emphasizing the need for a modernized workforce that is well-matched in terms of quality and distribution [4][5] - The manufacturing PMI for October stands at 50.1%, indicating a slight expansion, while the non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.2%, suggesting stability in the service sector [4][5] - Major banks in China are set to implement a new pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loans, reflecting the central bank's recent policy adjustments [4][5] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,279.82 with a slight increase of 0.42%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.57% to 10,591.22 [2] - The A-share market has shown resilience with significant trading volumes, indicating investor confidence amidst macroeconomic adjustments [5][6] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 9.22% in October, following a brief rebound in September, with an overall year-to-date drop of 4.13% [9] - The machinery sector, particularly in the context of the lithium battery and photovoltaic equipment, has shown signs of recovery, with significant gains in specific sub-sectors [12][13] - The blood products industry reported a revenue increase of 3.31% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, with notable growth in net profits [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that have been severely undervalued, such as lithium battery equipment and photovoltaic technologies, as they are expected to rebound [12][19] - Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in the automotive sector, particularly in new energy vehicles, which have seen a significant increase in sales and market penetration [22][23] Key Data Updates - The report provides insights into the performance of various indices, with the securities sector showing a remarkable recovery in September, outperforming the broader market [16][17] - The energy sector, particularly hydropower, is expected to maintain a strong performance due to favorable water conditions and market dynamics [18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [2][20]. Core Insights - The company, Luxshare Precision (002475), reported a revenue of 177.18 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.075 billion yuan, up 23.06% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the AI-driven new era in consumer electronics, with strong growth in its communications and automotive segments contributing to a second growth curve [5][7]. - The company has established a competitive advantage in the consumer electronics sector, providing comprehensive solutions from components to systems for major global brands [5][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 73.579 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.07% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43.73%. The net profit for the same quarter was 3.679 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.88% [3][4]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 11.72%, a slight decrease of 0.08% year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 5.52%, up 0.21% year-on-year [4][8]. - The company forecasts a net profit for 2024 between 13.143 billion and 13.691 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 20% to 25% year-on-year [3][8]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenues for 2024 to 2026 are 255.503 billion yuan, 308.333 billion yuan, and 351.393 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit for the same period is expected to be 13.665 billion yuan, 17.229 billion yuan, and 20.472 billion yuan [9][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.89 yuan in 2024, 2.38 yuan in 2025, and 2.83 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.34, 17.72, and 14.91 [9][14].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend on October 31, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,279.82 points, up 0.42%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,591.22 points, up 0.57% [6][7] - Key sectors that performed well included securities, real estate, automotive, and semiconductors, while gold, liquor, traditional Chinese medicine, and shipbuilding sectors lagged [2][6] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices were 13.85 times and 36.00 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][10] Group 2 - The total trading volume for the two markets on October 31 was 22,629 billion, which is above the median of the average daily trading volume over the past three years [2][10] - The report highlights the release of new policies aimed at market maturity and boosting long-term confidence, alongside significant signals from the Central Political Bureau meeting regarding macroeconomic adjustments [2][10] - Investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as automotive, new energy, internet services, and semiconductors for short-term focus [2][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [1][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 56.169 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.271 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.35% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in profitability, with a notable increase in non-recurring profit, indicating a positive trend in earnings recovery [1][2]. - The gross margin for the third quarter was reported at 9.41%, a slight decline of 1.63 percentage points year-on-year, with expectations for improvement as low-price orders from previous years are cleared [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 56.169 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.12% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.271 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.35% [1]. - The gross margin for the third quarter was 9.41%, down 1.63 percentage points from the previous year [1][2]. Order and Market Trends - The company secured 109 new orders for civil vessels, totaling 855.77 million deadweight tons and 68.425 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase in tonnage of 38.21% [2]. - The proportion of green vessels in new orders exceeded 50%, and high-end vessels accounted for over 70% of new orders, indicating a trend towards higher quality and sustainability [2][3]. - The total backlog of civil vessel orders stood at 322 vessels, amounting to 199.639 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase in tonnage of 22.15% [2]. Industry Outlook - The shipbuilding industry is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with improved profitability anticipated as high-price orders from 2022 onwards are delivered [3][4]. - The report suggests that the company, as a core asset of the shipbuilding industry, will benefit significantly from this recovery, with expectations for accelerated profit recovery starting in 2025 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [1][15]. Core Views - The company has initiated a new round of share buybacks, with a planned total of 5 to 10 billion yuan, following a previous buyback of 3 billion yuan completed in September 2024. This move reflects confidence in the company's long-term value [3]. - Despite a decline in coal prices since 2024, the coal industry is expected to remain in an upward cycle in the medium to long term, with the company’s high-quality coking coal being a scarce resource. The ongoing strategy to focus on premium coal is anticipated to enhance profitability [4]. - The company reported a revenue of 23.319 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a slight increase of 0.78% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 34.91% to 2.045 billion yuan [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 23.319 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.78%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.045 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 34.91% [1]. - The third quarter alone saw an operating income of 7.008 billion yuan, down 1.90% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.652 billion yuan, down 27.89% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 5.998 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.12% year-on-year [1]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for the company to be 2.847 billion yuan, 3.315 billion yuan, and 3.557 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 1.15 yuan, 1.34 yuan, and 1.44 yuan [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios based on the closing price of 9.91 yuan per share are projected to be 8.62X, 7.40X, and 6.90X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. Market Conditions - The company’s coal production for the first three quarters of 2024 was 21.06 million tons, a decrease of 8.65% year-on-year, while coking coal sales were 20.08 million tons, down 13.09% year-on-year [1]. - The report notes that the coking coal prices are expected to recover due to anticipated demand increases in November and December, driven by macroeconomic policies [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.21 yuan, implying a potential upside based on the current market conditions [2][6] Core Views - The company achieved a 2.98% YoY increase in revenue to 208.66 billion yuan and a 19.68% YoY increase in net profit to 25.64 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - Despite a challenging market environment, the company managed to grow its revenue and profit through market expansion and optimized sales strategies [3] - The company's integrated industrial chain and cost advantages have strengthened its competitiveness, particularly in the face of high raw material prices [4][6] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin improved by 0.41 percentage points YoY to 26.95% in the first three quarters of 2024, while the net margin increased by 1.26 percentage points to 12.25% [4] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue grew by 0.87% YoY and 8.78% QoQ to 70.74 billion yuan, while net profit declined by 4.29% YoY but increased by 9.33% QoQ to 8.42 billion yuan [3] - The company's EPS for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.08 yuan, and it announced a dividend plan of 3.00 yuan per 10 shares [2] Industry Outlook - The titanium dioxide industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and supportive government policies, which could drive future demand growth [4] - The company's technological innovation, cost reduction, and product optimization strategies are expected to enhance its market competitiveness and share [4] Integrated Industrial Chain - The company has been actively expanding its upstream resources, including acquiring titanium-related assets, which has improved its self-sufficiency in raw materials and reduced costs [6] - In 2024, the company produced 1.0456 million tons of titanium concentrate, a 73% YoY increase, all of which was used internally [6] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement to develop the Hongge South Mine, which is expected to further enhance its resource security and cost advantages [6] Valuation and Forecast - The company's EPS for 2024 and 2025 is forecasted to be 1.47 yuan and 1.64 yuan, respectively, with a PE ratio of 13.06x and 11.70x based on the closing price of 19.21 yuan on October 30, 2024 [6] - The report highlights the company's strong industry position and growth prospects, supporting the "Buy" rating [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the electrical equipment industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment is improving, supported by high-speed investment in the power grid, with a focus on opportunities in the transmission and transformation sector [1]. - The electrical equipment index outperformed the CSI 300 index in October, with a decline of 0.22%, which is 2.98 percentage points better than the CSI 300's decline of 3.20% [4]. - The growth in power grid investment remains robust, with significant increases in both power generation and grid engineering investments [1][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - In October, the electrical equipment sector saw 97 stocks rise and 78 fall, with notable gainers including Maike Audi (106.64%) and Jingwei Huikai (95.66%) [5][6]. - The sector's performance ranked 18th among major industries, with motor and transmission equipment sectors showing gains while power electronics and distribution equipment sectors declined [4]. 2. Macroeconomic Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's GDP grew by 4.8%, with the industrial value-added growth at 5.8% [6][8]. - Fixed asset investment stabilized, ending a five-month decline, with significant growth in the manufacturing sector [8]. 3. Electrical Equipment 3.1. Power Operation - Total electricity consumption in the first three quarters reached 7.41 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [12]. - The power generation capacity increased, with a total generation of 7.06 trillion kWh, reflecting a 5.4% year-on-year growth [14]. 3.2. Industry Chain Situation - The production of electrical equipment remains strong, with significant increases in the output of high-voltage switchgear and transformers [24]. - The investment in power and grid engineering continues to grow, with power engineering investments reaching 595.9 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [21]. 3.3. Regional Situation - In Henan province, power generation increased by 10.57% year-on-year, with significant contributions from renewable sources [33]. 3.4. October Bidding Situation - The State Grid Company conducted three major bids in October, focusing on marketing and digital projects [35]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing tight supply of transformers abroad, which supports continued growth in exports [29]. - The export values for transformers, cables, and high-voltage switches showed significant year-on-year increases, indicating strong international demand [29].