Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the lithium battery industry, based on its development prospects and valuation levels [2][4] Core Views - The lithium battery industry is under pressure in 2024, with both revenue and net profit declining for the first time since 2017 [3][12] - The global new energy vehicle market continues to grow, with China maintaining a significant competitive advantage in the industry chain [3][27] - Raw material prices in the lithium battery industry are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2024 due to oversupply and slowing demand growth [4][41] Market Performance - The lithium battery index underperformed the CSI 300 index in 2024, with a decline of 32.08% as of September 23, 2024 [3][9] - Among individual stocks, BYD, CATL, and Shangtai Technology were among the top performers, while Mengguli and DFD Nano were among the worst performers [9] Industry Performance Overview - In H1 2024, the lithium battery sector's revenue was 993.9 billion yuan, down 6.08% YoY, marking the first negative growth since 2017 [3][12] - Net profit for the sector in H1 2024 was 51.99 billion yuan, down 33.83% YoY, with only 39.39% of companies reporting positive growth [12][14] - Profitability metrics such as gross margin and net margin have been under pressure since 2022, reflecting intensified industry competition [18] Sub-Sector Performance - Performance varies significantly across sub-sectors, with power batteries and anode materials showing relatively better revenue growth in H1 2024 [15] - The lithium mining sub-sector saw the largest decline in net profit growth, with a median decline of 42.36% in H1 2024 [17] New Energy Vehicle Sales - Global new energy vehicle sales reached 8.5554 million units in the first seven months of 2024, a 23.57% YoY increase, accounting for 18% of the total market [3][27] - China's new energy vehicle sales grew by 30.96% YoY in the first eight months of 2024, reaching 7.034 million units, with exports increasing by 12.97% [3][27] Raw Material Prices - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell by 24.75% from the beginning of 2024 to September 20, 2024, reaching 74,500 yuan/ton [4][44] - Lithium hydroxide prices also declined by 23.20% during the same period, reflecting ongoing pressure in the lithium battery supply chain [44] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on three main investment themes: downstream battery manufacturers benefiting from lower raw material prices, companies with cost advantages, and thematic opportunities related to new energy vehicle sales [52] - Key companies to watch include CATL, Eve Energy, and Shangtai Technology, based on their ROE, R&D investment, and market position [52][54]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Background - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5.00% on September 19, 2024, marking the first rate cut in four years [4][6][7] - The Fed's decision aims to promote a soft landing for the U.S. economy, with the economic outlook remaining uncertain [8][11] - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of an additional 50 basis points cut this year, with median rates projected at 4.4%, 3.4%, and 2.9% for 2024 to 2026 [6][11] Group 2: Impact on Domestic Economy - The Fed's rate cut is expected to increase market liquidity, which may lead to a gradual recovery in the domestic economy [2][3] - The depreciation pressure on the RMB has eased, with the exchange rate against the USD around 7.05, reflecting a 2.4% appreciation since August [12] - The rate cut may enhance external demand for Chinese exports, although the stronger RMB could reduce price competitiveness [12][13] Group 3: Sector-Specific Impacts - The technology sector may benefit from lower global funding costs, increasing investment willingness and improving funding efficiency [2][3][18] - The real estate sector could see a boost in demand as foreign capital flows back into the market, potentially driving up housing prices [3][18] - The commodities sector may experience price increases due to enhanced external demand as the global economy recovers [3][18] Group 4: Capital Market Reactions - The Fed's rate cut is likely to lead to increased liquidity in the capital markets, with expectations of foreign capital returning to Chinese markets [14][18] - The report indicates that sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and construction performed well during previous Fed rate cut cycles, while non-bank financials and energy sectors lagged [14][18] - The report suggests that the financial sector will benefit from increased business volume due to rising loan demand as the economy recovers [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][18]. Core Views - The company has experienced a slight decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024, with operating income at 17.086 billion yuan, down 1.88% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 4.388 billion yuan, down 11.16% year-on-year [4][6]. - Despite market pressures, the company maintains a leading position in the brokerage industry, with a focus on debt financing and a strategic emphasis on serving national priorities and the real economy [18]. - The company is expected to benefit from policy directions aimed at fostering high-quality development in the investment banking sector [18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved operating income of 17.086 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.88% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.388 billion yuan, down 11.16% year-on-year [4][6]. - Basic earnings per share (EPS) were 0.35 yuan, reflecting a decline of 22.22% year-on-year [4][6]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 3.63%, down 1.47 percentage points year-on-year [4][6]. Business Segments - Investment income (including fair value changes) increased, accounting for 28.8% of total net income, while brokerage and investment banking revenues saw declines [7][15]. - The brokerage business faced slight pressure, with net income from brokerage fees down 12.97% year-on-year [8][9]. - Debt financing maintained rapid growth, with investment banking fees up 42.25% year-on-year, benefiting from a low base [10][18]. - Asset management revenues stabilized, with net income from asset management fees increasing by 2.24% year-on-year [12][18]. - Fixed income investments are being driven by customer demand, with investment income (including fair value changes) up 5.52% year-on-year [15][18]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has a strong market position, with international business revenues showing resilience despite a slight decline of 1.08% year-on-year [17][18]. - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.56 yuan and 0.60 yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) of 9.62 yuan and 10.08 yuan [18][19]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios are projected to be 1.25 and 1.19 for 2024 and 2025, respectively, based on the closing price of 12.04 yuan on September 24, 2024 [18][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 22.90 yuan as of September 24, 2024 [1] Core Views - The company is a leading R&D-driven enterprise in China's rehabilitation medical device industry, focusing on five major business segments: assessment, training, physiotherapy, nursing, and assistive devices [1] - As of the first half of 2024, the company has obtained 324 medical device registration certificates/filing vouchers, 1,702 patents, 160 software copyrights, and 185 provincial-level scientific achievements [1] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 338 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.93%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47.37% to 56.64 million yuan due to increased R&D and sales expenses [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the "silver economy" trend, with nearly 100 types of rehabilitation medical devices suitable for elderly care [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's gross margin was 68.22%, up 0.61 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 15.66 percentage points to 16.75% [1] - The company's expense ratios increased significantly: sales expense ratio rose by 4.64 percentage points to 27.99%, management expense ratio increased by 2.11 percentage points to 7.10%, and R&D expense ratio grew by 5.26 percentage points to 19.44% [1] - The company has maintained stable dividend payouts, with cash dividend ratios of 30.11%, 30.14%, and 36.36% from 2021 to 2023, and plans to maintain a dividend ratio of no less than 30% in 2024 [3] R&D and Innovation - The company has established a comprehensive testing center covering over 3,000 square meters with more than 300 advanced testing equipment, providing over 700 testing services for the entire product lifecycle [3] - The company is actively exploring cutting-edge technologies such as brain-computer interfaces, with ongoing projects including brain signal acquisition and analysis, and has developed prototypes for sleep assessment systems [3] - The company is leading a national key R&D project on "High-precision Biological Sensory Feedback Manipulation Technology and Systems" in collaboration with top research institutions [3] Industry Outlook - Rehabilitation medicine is recognized as one of the four major medical fields by the WHO, alongside preventive, clinical, and health medicine [1] - China's rehabilitation industry is still in its early stages of development, with significant growth potential driven by aging population and increasing health consumption [1] - The company's comprehensive solutions for elderly rehabilitation cover various aspects including pain management, stroke recovery, and cognitive disorders, positioning it well for the growing silver economy [2] Financial Projections - The company's EPS is projected to be 1.33 yuan in 2024, 1.56 yuan in 2025, and 1.87 yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.22x, 14.68x, and 12.25x [4] - Revenue is expected to grow from 819 million yuan in 2024 to 1.131 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 10%, 15%, and 20% respectively [4] - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 213 million yuan in 2024 to 299 million yuan in 2026, despite a projected 6.4% decline in 2024 [4] Operational Metrics - The company's asset-liability ratio stood at 23.60% as of June 30, 2024, with a current ratio of 2.55 and quick ratio of 1.92 projected for 2024 [10] - Total asset turnover is expected to improve from 0.30 in 2024 to 0.36 in 2026, indicating better asset utilization efficiency [10] - The company's ROE is projected to increase from 9.57% in 2024 to 11.71% in 2026, reflecting improving profitability [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a cautious increase rating for the company, indicating a potential increase of 0% to 5% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 892 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.87%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 59 million yuan, up 11.29% year-on-year [1]. - The sales growth of core products has slowed down, particularly in the fried and baked categories, which saw revenue declines of 4.26% and 8.34% respectively [1]. - The company is actively expanding its distribution channels and targeting lower-tier markets to counteract market saturation and increased competition [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin reached 25.21% in the first half of 2024, an increase of 1.97 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The projected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.54 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 2.08 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.97, 12.63, and 11.12 [3][4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 2,011 million yuan in 2024 to 2,357 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 5.80%, 7.60%, and 8.90% respectively [4][5]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its B-end customer base and enhancing its marketing strategies to penetrate deeper into the market [1][2]. - The growth in group meals and prepared dishes has been a highlight for the company, with significant revenue contributions from these segments [1][2]. Product Mix - The sales proportion of steamed and prepared dishes has increased, with steamed products accounting for 23.61% of sales, up 4.91 percentage points year-on-year, and prepared dishes at 14.95%, up 1.77 percentage points [2].

分析师：李济生 登记编码：S0730522100002 lijs@ccnew.com0371-65585753 研究助理：郑婷 登记编码：S0730122110004 zhengting@ccnew.com 相关报告 《河南资本市场月报（2024 年第 7 期）》 2024-8-28 《河南资本市场月报（2024 年第 6 期）》 2024-7-24 《河南资本市场月报（2024 年第 5 期）》 2024-6-26 《河南资本市场月报（2024 年第 4 期）》 2024-5-29 电话： 021-50586973 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788号16 楼 邮编： 200122 投资要点： 经济运行情况：2024 年 8 月份我国经济供需两端均有回落，内生修 复动能有所放缓，前期系列促消费政策以及强劲外需有效支撑经济 总体平稳运行。8 月份，河南省主要经济指标加速增长且远超全国 平均水平，尤其对战略性新兴产业的投资与生产力度持续加码，经 济动能向新向好发展。1-8 月份，中部各省主要经济指标稳中略降， 需求偏弱带动经济修复动能边际走弱，相比较而言，河南省经济增 势在中部六省中韧性较强。 宏观政策跟踪： ...

资料来源：Wind,中原证券 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 -21% -18% -15% -11% -8% -5% -2% 2% 2023.09 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 上证指数 深证成指 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 2,863.13 | 4.15 | | 深证成指 | 8,435.70 | 4.36 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,351.91 | 4.33 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,223.26 | 4.31 | | 中证 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 多重利好提振 A 股大幅上扬 ——市场分析 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2024 年 09 月 24 日 相关报告 《市场分析：银行通信行业领涨 A 股小幅上 涨》 2024-09-23 《市场分析：软件通讯行业领涨 A 股小幅震 荡》 2024-09-20 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股震荡上扬》 2024-09-19 联系人： 马嵚琦 电话： 021-50586973 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号16 楼 邮编： 200122 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周二（09 月 24 日）A 股市场高开高走、大幅震荡上涨，受到多重利好消息 的提振，早盘股指高开后震荡上行，午后股指加速上扬，盘中银行、证券、 保险、酿酒以及半导体等行业表现较好；电网设备、房地产、医疗器械以 及公用事业等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现大幅上扬的运行特征。创 业板市场周二大幅上扬，成指全天表现强于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周二 A 股市场高开高走、大幅震荡上涨，受到多重利好消息的提振， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][23]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total operating income of 95.95 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 47.48 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.44% year-on-year [4][6]. - The report highlights a significant increase in investment income (including fair value changes), which accounted for 57.4% of total income, while other income sources saw a decline [5][7]. - Despite a decrease in market share for equity fund trading, the company maintained a relatively stable performance in its brokerage business, with a net income decline within normal limits [5][18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported an operating income of 95.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.11% year-on-year, and a net profit of 47.48 billion yuan, an increase of 0.44% year-on-year [4][6]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) remained stable at 0.51 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 4.08%, down 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [4][6]. Revenue Composition - The composition of net income for the company in 2024H was as follows: brokerage (26.9%), investment banking (3.0%), asset management (3.5%), interest income (4.9%), and investment income (57.4%) [5][7]. - The report notes a decline in the market share of equity fund trading, with a total trading volume of 10.64 trillion yuan, down 18.59% year-on-year [8][9]. Investment Banking and Asset Management - The company experienced a smaller decline in equity financing compared to peers, with a total underwriting amount of 51.83 billion yuan, down 25.19% year-on-year, ranking 7th in the industry [10][12]. - In contrast, the debt financing scale grew, with a total bond underwriting amount of 1714.44 billion yuan, an increase of 18.41% year-on-year [10][12]. Investment Strategy - The company adopted a "large and stable" investment strategy, achieving a 17.43% year-on-year increase in investment income, which supported the stability of net profit [14][18]. - The report emphasizes the company's focus on high-dividend investments and diversified strategies in equity investments, while also capturing opportunities in the fixed income market [14][18]. Future Outlook - The projected EPS for 2024 and 2025 is 0.86 yuan and 0.84 yuan, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) of 12.96 yuan and 13.70 yuan [18][21]. - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to benefit from government policies aimed at fostering strong firms and building a first-class investment bank [18].

分析师：顾敏豪 登记编码：S0730512100001 gumh00@ccnew.com 021-50586308 基础化工 美联储降息开启宽松周期，海外地产链及 资源属性化工品有望受益 ——基础化工行业点评报告 证券研究报告-行业点评报告 同步大市(维持) 基础化工相对沪深 300 指数表现 -28% -24% -20% -16% -12% -7% -3% 1% 2023.09 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 相关报告 《基础化工行业月报：化工品价格回调态势放 缓，关注三条主线 》 2024-09-13 《基础化工行业月报：油价震荡下跌，化工品 价格延续回调态势》 2024-08-14 《基础化工行业月报：化工品价格整体回调， 三条主线布局投资机会》 2024-07-10 联系人：马嶔琦 电话： 021-50586973 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号16 楼 邮编： 200122 发布日期：2024 年 09 月 24 日 事件：当地时间 9 月 18 日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布，将联 邦基金利率目标区间下调 50 个基点，降 ...