资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -19% -14% -9% -4% 1% 7% 12% 17% 2023.11 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,267.19 | -3.06 | | 深证成指 | 10,438.72 | -3.52 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,865.70 | -3.10 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,653.29 | -2 ...

Group 1 - Fiscal revenue shows marginal improvement, with total public budget revenue for January to October reaching 184,981 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.3%. In October alone, public budget revenue increased by 5.49% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth in tax revenue for the year at 1.8% [10][12][21] - The youth unemployment rate has shown marginal improvement but remains high, with the unemployment rate for urban labor aged 16-24 at 17.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [21][22] - The LPR for November remains unchanged at 3.10% for one-year loans and 3.60% for five-year loans, aligning with market expectations after a significant reduction in October [23][24] Group 2 - The newly released market value management guidelines by the CSRC are expected to benefit undervalued stocks, requiring long-term undervalued companies to disclose valuation enhancement plans, which will help improve stock valuations and investment returns [3][29] - Economic development conditions and supporting factors remain favorable, with ongoing reforms and the integration of digital and traditional economies expected to create new growth points [30][31] - Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data suggests a slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts, with recent labor market indicators showing lower-than-expected unemployment claims [31][33] Group 3 - Short-term investment recommendations include focusing on sectors such as brokerage, non-bank financials, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, 5G, and software, while mid-term attention should be on infrastructure, power sectors, and companies benefiting from the new market value management guidelines [4][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][6] Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in both domestic and international markets, with overseas growth being particularly notable. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.738 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.17%, with a growth rate improvement of 25.55 percentage points compared to the previous year [3][6] - The domestic molasses prices are steadily declining, alleviating cost pressures for the company. As of November 22, 2024, the average trading price of molasses in Guangxi was 1,336 yuan per ton, down 70 yuan from the previous month, marking a decrease of 5.02% [3][6] - The company's profitability has seen a decline due to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in expense ratios. The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 23.28%, down 1.39 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8.89%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points [3][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 10.912 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.05%, with an expansion of 5.59 percentage points in growth rate [3][6] - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.57, 1.80, and 2.05 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21.96, 19.12, and 16.80 [3][6][7] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 19.270 billion yuan in 2023 to 24.703 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company's gross profit margin has significantly improved, with a notable increase in the high-voltage segment driving performance. The gross profit margin reached 24.27% in the first three quarters of 2024, up by 4.29 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company reported a revenue of 78.85 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.57 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 55.13% year-on-year [3]. - The acceleration in revenue growth is attributed to the delivery of key projects, with the third quarter of 2024 showing a revenue of 28.43 billion yuan, up 8.42% year-on-year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 8.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 55.13%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 8.48 billion yuan, also reflecting a growth of 54.91% [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow per share was 0.67 yuan, and the return on equity (ROE) was 8.23% [3]. - The company’s total assets reached 22.13 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 49.35% [3]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing investment in the power grid and the acceleration of ultra-high voltage construction projects. The expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 12.63 billion yuan, 15.29 billion yuan, and 18.15 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - The report notes that the investment in power grid projects in China reached 398.2 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.1% [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The company has received approval for its product Bevacizumab injection, branded as "Anbeiyou," which is primarily used for treating various types of cancer [4][5] - The sales of Bevacizumab in China reached approximately 10.68 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a growth of 23.71% compared to 2022, indicating potential revenue growth for the company [5] - The company maintains its earnings forecast for 2024-2026, with expected earnings per share of 0.73 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 1.03 yuan respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 23.89, 19.44, and 16.87 [6] Financial Data Summary - As of September 30, 2024, the company reported a closing price of 17.39 yuan, with a market capitalization of 27.367 billion yuan [2] - The company’s net profit for 2023 is projected to be 1.762 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 37.66% compared to 2022 [7] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is estimated at 5.366 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.45% from 2023 [7] - The gross profit margin is reported at 61.77%, and the return on equity is 7.90% [2][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [2][14]. Core Views - The company, known for its innovative drug development pipeline, is expected to continue enriching its product offerings, positioning itself as a leader in the domestic innovative drug sector [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 20.189 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.620 billion yuan, up 32.98% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights significant clinical value from innovative results, benefiting more patients, and includes a notable income recognition from a licensing agreement with Merck Healthcare [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 26.612 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.62% [6]. - Net profit for 2024 is estimated at 5.774 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 34.21% [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.91 yuan for 2024, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings ratios of 55.45, 45.81, and 39.66 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][6]. R&D and Product Pipeline - The company has successfully advanced its innovative drug pipeline, with several new drug applications expected between 2024 and 2026, including a new drug for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis and a JAK1 inhibitor for severe alopecia areata [2]. - The innovative drug segment is identified as a key growth driver for the company moving forward [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [3]. Core Insights - The automotive market showed strong performance in November, with retail sales of passenger vehicles reaching 1.106 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 3%. Cumulatively, retail sales for the year reached 18.942 million units, up 5% year-on-year [3][44]. - Domestic brands are performing strongly, with a market share increase to 64.6% in the first ten months of 2024, up 9.3 percentage points year-on-year. Cumulative sales for domestic brands reached 13.849 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.2% [3][55]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) continues to rise, with NEV sales in October reaching 1.43 million units, a year-on-year increase of 49.6%. The cumulative sales for the first ten months of 2024 reached 9.75 million units, up 33.9% year-on-year [3][36]. Market Review - As of November 20, the automotive sector (CITIC) index increased by 4.79% in November, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 2.43%. Year-to-date, the automotive sector has increased by 19.57% [14][15]. - In November, the automotive sector ranked second among 30 primary industries in terms of growth [14]. Industry Overview - In October 2024, automotive production and sales reached 2.996 million and 3.053 million units, respectively, with month-on-month increases of 7.2% and 8.7%, and year-on-year increases of 3.6% and 7% [26]. - The inventory level of automotive dealers was below the warning line, with a coefficient of 1.1, down 14.7% month-on-month and 35.3% year-on-year [26]. Passenger Vehicles - In November, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.106 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 3%. Cumulative sales for the year reached 18.942 million units, up 5% year-on-year [44]. - In October, domestic brands achieved a market share of 70.1%, with sales of 1.931 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30% [55]. Commercial Vehicles - In October 2024, commercial vehicle production and sales reached 290,000 and 298,000 units, respectively, with a month-on-month sales increase of 5% [64]. New Energy Vehicles - In October, NEV sales reached 1.43 million units, a year-on-year increase of 49.6%, with a cumulative total of 9.75 million units sold in the first ten months of 2024, up 33.9% year-on-year [36][44].

Key Insights - China's non-financial direct investment abroad reached USD 115.83 billion from January to October 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [6][8] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to evaluate the effectiveness of existing subsidy policies and prepare for next year's vehicle replacement policies to stabilize market expectations [6][8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on enhancing innovation in computing power, algorithms, and data technologies, aiming to build a comprehensive industrial chain from smart chips to algorithm frameworks [6][8] Market Analysis - The software and home appliance sectors led the A-share market with slight fluctuations, while growth sectors showed upward trends [6][8] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 14.20 and 37.24 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [6][8] - Recent high-frequency data indicates that social financing and CPI fell short of expectations, leading to market adjustments due to profit-taking from previously hot sectors [6][8] Industry Performance - The electric power and public utilities sector demonstrated stable performance, with a revenue of CNY 1.8748 trillion in the first three quarters of 2024, a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year [13] - The net profit for the sector reached CNY 194.69 billion, up 9.67% year-on-year, with a net asset return rate of 7.84% [13] - The water and nuclear power segments are highlighted as areas of interest due to their robust performance [13] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "outperform the market" rating for the electric power and public utilities sector, suggesting a focus on leading companies in water and nuclear power for stable returns [13] - The lithium battery sector is recommended for attention, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 5.21% but a strong outlook due to the growth in the electric vehicle market [17][30] - The pet food industry is also noted for its growth potential, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong market positions [27] Sector-Specific Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a decline in revenue growth, particularly in the liquor segment, which dropped from 15.19% to 0.73% year-on-year [19][20] - The gaming and advertising sectors are expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption, with a stable demand outlook for the gaming market [21][23] - The packaging paper market is experiencing slight price increases, with expectations for improved demand in the coming quarters due to economic recovery [28]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a notable performance in the software development, home appliance, gaming, and power equipment sectors, while shipping ports, mining, energy metals, and diversified finance sectors underperformed [7][18] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,370.40 points, up 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,819.88 points, down 0.07% [8][18] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 14.20 times and 37.24 times respectively, indicating a mid-level valuation suitable for medium to long-term investment [18] Group 2 - The total trading volume for both markets on Thursday was 16,561 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [18] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, with industries such as precious metals, power equipment, chemical raw materials, and household light industry leading the increases [7][18] - The report suggests short-term investment opportunities in the software development, home appliance, gaming, and power equipment sectors due to their recent performance [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The company's profitability continues to improve, supported by flexible direct current (DC) transmission systems, contributing to performance growth [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 9.586 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.49%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 895 million yuan, an increase of 10.41% year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margin has been consistently rising, indicating enhanced profitability, with Q3 2024 gross margins recorded at 24.52% [3][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 95.86 billion yuan, down 11.49% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.95 billion yuan, up 10.41% year-on-year [3] - The company’s gross profit margin has shown a continuous upward trend, with Q1, Q2, and Q3 2024 margins at 18.27%, 22.74%, and 24.52% respectively [3][6] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 is projected to be 2.075 billion yuan, with net profit estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 1.558 billion yuan, 1.698 billion yuan, and 1.989 billion yuan respectively [13][14] Business Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of ultra-high voltage direct current (UHVDC) construction, with projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 being 1.278 billion yuan, 1.410 billion yuan, and 1.671 billion yuan respectively [6][12] - The company has secured a contract for the Gansu-Zhejiang ±800 kV UHVDC converter valve project, valued at 1.086 billion yuan, which is anticipated to enhance its performance [3][6] Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the converter valve sector, with significant demand expected for flexible direct current projects, which are set to increase in the coming years [6][12] - The company’s market capitalization is currently 281.52 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio projected to decrease from 36.23 in 2022 to 17.03 by 2026 [3][14]