Economic Overview - In October 2024, China's industrial added value for enterprises above designated size grew by 5.3% year-on-year, maintaining a recovery trend from the previous month[14] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 45,396 billion yuan in October, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, a significant increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[21] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for January to October 2024 totaled 423,222 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[23] Regional Insights: Henan Province - In October 2024, Henan's industrial added value increased by 10.6% year-on-year, marking the first double-digit growth of the year[34] - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Henan reached 2,573.58 billion yuan, growing by 7.1% year-on-year, an acceleration of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[39] - Real estate development investment in Henan decreased by 10.3% year-on-year from January to October, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[28] Investment and Manufacturing - Manufacturing investment in China rose by 9.3% year-on-year, driven by increased investment in consumer goods manufacturing[25] - The manufacturing sector in Henan saw significant growth, particularly in the automotive and electrical equipment industries, with growth rates of 42.4% and 24.6% respectively[34] Trade Performance - In the first ten months of 2024, China's total goods trade value reached 36.02 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 6.7% and imports by 3.2%[30] - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with trade value reaching 5.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8%[30] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation affecting economic recovery, insufficient domestic demand recovery, and escalating trade tensions[7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [77]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has experienced a significant slowdown in revenue growth since 2020, with 2024 showing further contraction. Only segments like liquor, condiments, soft drinks, and snacks recorded positive growth, while others faced declines [3][4][10]. - The profitability of the food and beverage sector has generally increased due to falling upstream prices rather than improvements in product structure, indicating reliance on external factors rather than internal enhancements [4][29]. - The return on equity (ROE) for food and beverage assets has been on a long-term decline, with segments like liquor and beer showing stable or increasing returns, while others like prepared dishes and health products have seen significant drops [4][31][34]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector has reached a low point, reflecting adjustments to changes in performance growth. The sector's valuation is expected to continue to decline in the long term [5][50]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Since 2020, the food and beverage sector has seen a general slowdown in revenue growth, with a 3.03 percentage point decline in average annual growth from 2016-2019 to 2020-2023. In 2024, the revenue growth further contracted to 3.92%, down 5.38 percentage points from the previous period [10][13][17]. - Only liquor, condiments, soft drinks, and snacks have shown positive revenue growth, while other segments like prepared foods and health products have recorded significant declines [13][17]. Cost and Profitability - The sector's gross margin increased by 1.86 percentage points in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to the previous year, reaching 50.92%. This increase is attributed to a decline in costs rather than product upgrades [29]. - The overall profitability increase is primarily due to external price reductions rather than internal product improvements, indicating a reliance on external market conditions [4][29]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has underperformed in the secondary market, with a cumulative decline of 51.98% since the peak in 2021. Only soft drinks and snacks have recorded positive returns during this period [5][43][45]. - The sector's valuation has dropped to a historical low, with a current valuation of 20.04 times earnings, reflecting a necessary adjustment to the slowing growth [50]. 2025 Outlook and Investment Strategy - Revenue growth for food and beverage companies is expected to remain in the single digits for 2025, with a forecasted growth rate between 5% and 8%. The long-term outlook suggests further narrowing of growth rates [61][62]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in emerging markets such as prepared foods, baking, pre-mixed drinks, health products, snacks, and yeast [67][68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the mechanical industry, in line with the broader market performance [2]. Core Views - The mechanical sector is experiencing a recovery, with a focus on cyclical machinery and leading companies in growth sub-sectors. The report suggests a defensive strategy while recommending investments in cyclical leaders and growth sectors such as robotics and semiconductor equipment [5][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Mechanical Sector Performance - In November, the CITIC mechanical sector declined by 1.72%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.41 percentage points, ranking 19th among 30 CITIC primary industries [35][36]. - Key sub-sectors showing positive performance include industrial robots, aerial work vehicles, and lithium battery equipment, with increases of 20.1%, 14.2%, and 13.77% respectively [35]. 2. Engineering Machinery - Excavator sales in October reached 16,791 units, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, with domestic sales up by 21.6% [49][60]. - The report indicates a recovery in the engineering machinery market, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies as the industry approaches a cyclical rebound [69]. 3. Robotics - Industrial robot production in October was 50,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.4%, with a cumulative production of 465,000 units for the year, up 13.3% [70][71]. - The report highlights a significant upward trend in the robotics sector, suggesting a focus on leading companies and core component manufacturers as the industry recovers [73]. 4. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing continued growth, with new ship prices reaching new highs and key performance indicators showing significant increases [18][20]. - The report recommends investment in shipbuilding companies as profitability improves in this sector [21]. 5. Fixed Asset Investment - The report notes that fixed asset investments in sectors like coal and non-ferrous metals are increasing, positively impacting demand for mining and construction machinery [22][23]. - Railway fixed asset investment is also on the rise, contributing to sustained demand for railway equipment [24]. 6. Industry Valuation - As of November 26, 2024, the mechanical industry’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at 29.9, positioned at the 44.6 percentile of its 10-year range, indicating a valuation below the industry average [41][46]. - Certain growth sub-sectors remain undervalued, with price-to-earnings ratios below the 20th percentile [46]. 7. Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the engineering machinery industry, suggesting that the sector is nearing a recovery phase after a prolonged downturn [69]. - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies in engineering machinery and robotics, as well as those involved in the production of key components [73][74].

电力设备及新能源 分析师：唐俊男 登记编码：S0730519050003 tangjn@ccnew.com 021-50586738 政策强化去产能预期，加速行业筑底 证券研究报告-行业点评报告 强于大市(维持) ——光伏行业点评报告 发布日期：2024 年 11 月 27 日 事件： 电力设备及新能源相对沪深 300 指数表现 -21% -15% -9% -3% 3% 9% 15% 21% 2023.11 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 电力设备及新能源 沪深300 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 相关报告 《电力设备及新能源行业月报：宏观经济向好 叠加电网建设支撑，关注输变电龙头企业》 2024-11-01 《电力设备及新能源行业月报：协会呼吁依法 合规参与市场竞争，建议关注各细分领域头部 企业》 2024-10-31 《电力设备及新能源行业专题研究：业绩低 谷，尚待出清》 2024-10-28 联系人：李智 电话： 0371-65585753 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18 楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号T1 座22 楼 2024 年 11 月 15 日，财政部、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the mechanical industry [5][42]. Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, with a focus on demand recovery in specific sub-sectors and the growth of new productive forces [5][10]. - The report highlights that the mechanical sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 4.57%, lagging behind the CSI 300's 12.13% by 7.56 percentage points [4][68]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The mechanical industry index shows a trend of oscillating upward in 2024, but remains weaker than the CSI 300 index [66]. - The industry has a low valuation compared to historical levels, with the current price-to-earnings ratio at 30.4 times, placing it in the 48.2 percentile of the past decade [73]. 2. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is entering a new recovery cycle, with significant growth in excavator and loader sales observed in 2024 [6][90]. - Excavator sales turned positive in April 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 15.1% in October 2024 [90]. - The report emphasizes the global competitiveness of China's engineering machinery industry, with leading companies like SANY and XCMG significantly increasing their overseas revenue [100][108]. 3. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a sustained recovery, with new ship price indices and key metrics on the rise, indicating a supply-demand imbalance that is expected to persist [6][27]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the shipbuilding sector, such as China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and China Shipbuilding Defense [6]. 4. Mining and Energy Equipment - The mining machinery and coal machinery sectors are benefiting from increased fixed asset investment in upstream mining industries, leading to sustained demand and performance growth [7][9]. - The report highlights the potential for oil and gas equipment to benefit from a global recovery in traditional oil and gas investments [7]. 5. Robotics and AI Equipment - The industrial robotics sector is at a cyclical recovery point, with long-term benefits expected from China's manufacturing upgrades and the growth of humanoid robots [10]. - AI-related equipment is anticipated to see a resurgence in demand, particularly in liquid cooling, 3C equipment, and semiconductor equipment [10].

资料来源：Wind,中原证券 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -19% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 2023.11 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,259.76 | -0.12 | | 深证成指 | 10,333.23 | -0.84 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,840.18 | -0.21 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,622.33 | -0.21 | | 中 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [56] Core Viewpoints - The brokerage index reached a three-year high in early October 2024 before undergoing a correction, with the index rising by 3.53% for the month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.69 percentage points [4][8] - Key factors influencing the monthly performance of listed brokerages include a recovery in fixed income, a historical high in average daily trading volume, and an increase in margin trading balances [4][31] - The brokerage sector is expected to see improved profitability in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three quarters, with a potential upward challenge to a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2 times in the future [6][50] Summary by Sections October Brokerage Market Review - The brokerage index experienced a significant rise at the beginning of October, followed by a correction, ultimately showing strong performance despite the adjustments [8][10] - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector fluctuated between 1.425 and 1.649 times during October, with a closing average of 1.493 times, below the historical average of 1.55 times since 2016 [16][48] Key Factors Affecting Monthly Performance - The equity market entered a consolidation phase while fixed income showed strong recovery, leading to expected growth in proprietary trading [4][19] - The average daily trading volume reached a historical high of 20,150 billion yuan, with total monthly trading volume at 36.27 trillion yuan, indicating a significant rebound in brokerage business [28] - The margin trading balance reached a new high of 1.7089 trillion yuan, contributing positively to the monthly performance of listed brokerages [31][35] November Performance Outlook - The proprietary trading in equities is expected to decline slightly, while fixed income trading is anticipated to improve, leading to stable overall monthly investment returns for brokerages [5][43] - The brokerage sector's overall performance is projected to remain stable, with expectations of a significant rebound in both equity and debt financing activities [47][48] Investment Recommendations - The brokerage index has entered a consolidation phase after reaching a new high, with a focus on maintaining attention on the sector for potential investment opportunities, particularly in leading brokerages and those with valuations below the sector average [6][52]

Market Overview - On November 26, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,259.76 points, down 0.12%[7] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,333.23 points, down 0.84%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.15%[7] - Total trading volume in both markets reached 13,348 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[7] Sector Performance - The consumer light industry, logistics, food and beverage, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors performed well, while software development, internet services, battery, and specialized equipment sectors lagged[7] - Over 60% of stocks in the two markets declined, indicating a broad market pullback[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 13.82 times, and for the ChiNext Index, it is 36.45 times, both at the median level over the past three years, suggesting a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[18] Economic Outlook - The report highlights that China is in a transitional development phase, with a focus on integrating the digital economy, advanced manufacturing, and modern services with the real economy[18] - Continuous improvement of counter-cyclical adjustment tools indicates that economic recovery is anticipated, although the transmission of policy effects will take time[18] Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in the consumer light industry, logistics, food and beverage, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors[18] - Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in policy, capital flow, and external factors that may impact market conditions[18] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy and economic recovery progress falling short of expectations, and international relations affecting the economic environment[18]

资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -19% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 2023.11 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,263.76 | -0.11 | | 深证成指 | 10,420.52 | -0.17 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,848.09 | -0.46 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,630.08 | -0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [18]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a high opening, facing resistance around 3285 points, while sectors such as cultural media, gaming, education, and energy metals performed well. In contrast, gold, aviation, military, and insurance sectors showed weaker performance [7][17]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently at 13.84 times and 36.17 times, respectively, which are at the median levels over the past three years, suggesting a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [17]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 15,219 billion yuan, which is above the median of the past three years, indicating active market participation [17]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On November 25, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,263.76 points, down 0.10%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,420.52 points, down 0.17%. The ChiNext 50 Index fell by 1.18%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.02% [8][7]. - The market showed a mixed performance with over 70% of stocks rising, particularly in sectors like batteries, textiles, consumer goods, education, and tourism, while precious metals, aviation, aerospace, shipbuilding, and insurance sectors faced declines [7]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the market is expected to maintain a trend of oscillation upwards, driven by ongoing macroeconomic adjustments and growth-promoting policies. Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in policy, capital flow, and external factors [17]. - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as cultural media, gaming, and non-ferrous metals [17].