大家好欢迎参加智商交易及运产业链系列电话会中原海发线上交流目前所有参会者正处于静音状态现在开始播报名字声明声明播报完毕后主持人可直接开始发言谢谢 浙商证券研究所提醒您一本次电话会已经面向浙商证券研究所签约的机构投资者以及受邀客户第三方嘉宾发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见均不构成对具体证券在具体价位具体时点具体市场表现的判断或投资建议 2、嘉宾所说信息或所表述的意见均不构成浙商证券研究所研究观点如果嘉宾发布的观点和浙商研究所发布的观点有分歧或不一致这也仅作为一种不同的研究视角供投资者参考3、依照监管要求和保密原则未经合法授权严禁录音、记录、转发 感谢您的理解和配合若本次交流内容不慎流出或涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留追究法律责任的权利再次感谢您对这张证券的理解和配合谢谢 好的各位投资者下午好我是中央交易的卢超尧那近期京市场火热然后运价不断飙升行业的景气度是有目共睹的那今天市场是受到消息面的影响反应比较剧烈我们也是很荣幸的邀请到了中央海发的谢总在第一时间与我们就市场最关心的一个问题做一个交流那首先想请谢总对公司的业务情况做一个简单的介绍谢谢各位投资者大家好我们这边是中央海发的投资团队 最近可能这个中央 ...

资料来源：Wind,中原证券 分析师：周建华 登记编码：S0730518120001 zhoujh-yjs@ccnew.cm 021-50586758 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,028.05 | -0.76 | | 深证成指 | 9,262.35 | 0.07 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,542.88 | -0.87 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,379.68 | -0.92 | | 中证 500 | 5,217.47 | 0.16 | | 中证 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 2000 | 7,801.2 ...

周二 A 股市场低开低走、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低开后震荡回落，沪指 盘中在 3013 点附近获得支撑，午后股指维持震荡，盘中半导体、电子元件、 计算机设备以及教育等行业表现较好；酿酒、银行、航运港口以及电力等 行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现震荡整理的运行特征。当前上证综指与 创业板指数的平均市盈率分别为 13.05 倍、28.91 倍，处于近三年中位数 以下水平，市场估值依然处于较低区域，适合中长期布局。两市周二成交 金额 7054 亿元，处于近三年日均成交量中位数区域下方。新国九条发布， 推动市场走向成熟，提振市场长期信心。5 月出口保持韧性，地产销售有 所改善，汽车销售略有下降。新增地方政府专项债券发行在 5 月显著提速， 将有力支持扩大有效投资，稳固经济大盘。宏观和市场监管利好政策预期 依然较强，市场有望在关键点位得到支撑，未来股指总体预计将保持震荡 格局，同时仍需密切关注政策面、资金面以及外部因素的变化情况。我们 建议投资者短线关注汽车、文化传媒、半导体以及电子元件等行业的投资 机会。 风险提示：海外超预期衰退，影响国内经济复苏进程；国内政策及经 济复苏进度不及预期；宏观经济超预期扰动；政策超预期变 ...

半导体 分析师：邹臣 登记编码：S0730523100001 大基金三期成立，关注国产替代方向 z ouchen@ccnew.com 021-50581991 ——半导体行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 半导体相对沪深300指数表现 发布日期：2024年06月11日 投资要点： 半导体 沪深300 5%  5月国内半导体行业表现相对较弱。2024年5月国内半导体行业 -1% -7% （中信）下跌1.71%，同期沪深300下跌0.68%，半导体行业 -13% （中信）年初至今下跌14.18%；5月费城半导体指数上涨 -19% -252%023.06 2023.10 2024.02 2024.06 9.63%，同期纳斯达克100上涨6.28%，年初至今费城半导体指 -31% 数上涨22.70%。 -37%  全球半导体月度销售额继续同比增长，存储器月度价格环比回 资 料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 落。2024年4月全球半导体销售额同比增长15.8%，连续6个月 相关报告 实现同比增长，环比增长1.1%；根据WSTS的最新预测，上调预 《半导体行业月报：半导体行业24Q1复苏 测2024年全球 ...

-27% -22% -18% -14% -9% -5% 0% 4% 2023.06 2023.10 2024.02 2024.06 上证指数 深证成指 【宏观策略】 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------|------------| | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 道琼斯 | 30,772.79 | -0.67 | | 标普 500 | 3,801.78 | -0.45 | | 纳斯达克 | 11,247.58 | -0.15 | | 德国 DAX | 12,756.32 | -1.16 | | 富时 100 | 7,156.37 | -0.74 | | 日经 225 | 26,643.39 | 0.62 | | 恒生指数 | 18,366.95 | -0.59 | 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 【财经要闻】 3、证监会就《中国证监会行政处罚裁量基本规则（征求意见稿）》公开征 求意见，进一步规范证监会及其派出机构行政处罚裁量。 周度策略：出口继续走强，市场或有支撑 市场分析：地产交运行业领涨 A 股小幅整 ...

——市场分析 《市场分析：周期行业领涨 A 股窄幅波动》 2024-06-06 联系人： 马嵚琦 ◼ A 股市场综述 周五 A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指高开后震荡上行，沪指 盘中在 3065 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指震荡回落，盘中房地产、交运设备、 电力以及银行等行业表现较好；通信设备、消费电子、证券以及酿酒等行 业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现震荡整理的运行特征。当前上证综指与创 业板指数的平均市盈率分别为 13.04 倍、29.07 倍，处于近三年中位数以 下水平，市场估值依然处于较低区域，适合中长期布局。两市周五成交金 额 7192 亿元，处于近三年日均成交量中位数区域。新国九条发布，推动市 场走向成熟，提振市场长期信心。官方 PMI 数据出现季节性回落，重回荣 枯线下方。工业企业盈利在工业品价格回升的推动下，重回正增长。美联 储态度呈现鹰派，海外市场出现调整，国际局势影响市场风险偏好，未来 股指总体预计将保持震荡格局，同时仍需密切关注政策面、资金面以及外 部因素的变化情况。我们建议投资者短线关注房地产、黄金以及工程机械 等行业的投资机会。 第1页 / 共7页 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公 ...

Industry Overview - The lithium battery index decreased by 6.25%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [2] - The chemical industry index fell by 3.39%, ranking 20th among 30 sectors [2] - The new materials index dropped by 4.54%, with only the semiconductor materials sub-sector showing an increase [2] - The non-ferrous metals index declined by 2.28%, with gold showing a slight increase of 1.58% [2] - The light industry manufacturing index decreased by 5.53%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 index [2] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index fell by 2.00%, with the planting sector performing better [4] - The food and beverage sector dropped by 2.19%, facing pressure from increased competition and declining profit margins [5] - The pharmaceutical industry index decreased by 1.75%, with various sub-sectors showing mixed performance [6] - The securities sector index fell by 2.57%, with structural performance differences among firms [49] - The machinery sector index declined by 3.69%, with certain sub-sectors like transportation equipment showing positive growth [52] Sector Insights Lithium Battery - The lithium battery sector is currently under pressure due to a decline in industry prices, with a cautious investment outlook recommended [19] Chemical - The chemical sector is advised to focus on coal chemical and light hydrocarbon industries due to their potential for better profitability amidst rising international oil prices [20] New Materials - The new materials sector is characterized by high volatility, with a recommendation to focus on segments with strong growth potential, such as semiconductor materials [24] Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is influenced by global economic conditions and central bank policies, with investment opportunities in gold and copper suggested [27] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry sector is expected to benefit from recent real estate policy adjustments, with a focus on leading companies in the home furnishing segment [30] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The agriculture sector is experiencing a recovery in pig prices, with expectations for improved profitability in the poultry industry as well [38][40] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector is seeing a recovery in market turnover efficiency, particularly in health products and baked goods, suggesting potential growth areas [41] Pharmaceutical - The pharmaceutical sector is under short-term pressure but presents mid-term investment opportunities in innovative drugs and blood products [47] Securities - The securities sector is facing a challenging environment, with limited downside potential but uncertain recovery prospects [49] Machinery - The machinery sector is advised to focus on industries benefiting from equipment upgrades and cyclical recovery, such as shipbuilding and robotics [52]

图 5：美国非农就业人数（万人） 第8页 / 共18页 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 创九个月新高；单月上涨 4.4 个点，升幅为去年年初以来最大。商业活动指数飙升 10.3 点，为 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2024年 2023年 2022年 【出口继续走强，市场或有支撑】5 月出口保持韧性，增长超预期；地产在一线城市政策 放松后，销售有所改善；端午假期消餐饮、出游消费表现良好；由于高基数原因，汽车销售略 有下降。在中央要求"加快专项债发行使用进度"后，新增地方政府专项债券发行在 5 月显著 提速，单月发行规模达 4383 亿元，若新增专项债持续放量发行，将有力支持扩大有效投资， 稳固经济大盘。海外方面，加拿大、欧洲央行首次降息，但欧洲央行降息后的表态相对"鹰派"， 受制于通胀情况，利率降息节奏可能较慢。美国非农数据大超预期，市场对美联储 2024 年首 次降息预测推迟到 12 月。国内市场经过 5 月下旬以来的调整，但宏观和市场监管利好政策预 期 ...

轻工制造 分析师：龙羽洁 登记编码：S0730523120001 地产政策持续加码，关注家居估值修复 l ongyj@ccnew.com 0371-65585753 ——轻工制造行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(下调) 轻工制造相对沪深300指数表现 发布日期：2024年06月07日 投资要点： 轻工制造 沪深300 6% ⚫ 市场回顾：5月轻工制造板块下跌2.37%，跑输沪深300指数 1% -4% 1.69pct，涨幅在中信一级行业中排名第20名。细分子板块中， -8% 家具板块上涨，其余板块下跌。个股约三分之一上涨，涨幅靠前 -13% -18% 的5名分别是凯华材料、晨鸣B、恒林股份、喜临门、百亚股份。 -23% 2023.06 2023.10 2024.02 2024.06 -28% ⚫ 造纸：企业收入持续增长，利润延续高增，产量持续增长。原材 资 料来源：中原证券，聚源 料：5月废黄板纸价格下跌，国内纸浆偏稳运行，国际纸浆价格 相关报告 延续上涨。纸品价格：箱板纸/瓦楞纸/双胶纸/双铜纸/白板纸/白卡 《轻工制造行业月报： 浆价延续上涨趋势， 纸/木浆生活用纸/竹浆生活用纸5月末价格分别较 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing strong performance and growth potential [2][3] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with significant growth in net profit in 2024Q1 [2] - The pet food market has substantial growth potential, driven by increasing pet ownership and higher penetration of professional pet food in China [2] - The company's proprietary brand has shown strong performance, enhancing its core competitiveness [2] - Product structure optimization has led to improved profitability, with gross and net margins increasing in 2024Q1 [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of RMB 4.327 billion, up 27.36% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 429 million, up 60.68% YoY [2] - In 2024Q1, revenue reached RMB 1.097 billion, up 21.33% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 148 million, up 74.49% YoY [2] - The company's gross margin in 2023 was 36.84%, up 4.25 percentage points YoY, and the net margin was 9.95%, up 2.13 percentage points YoY [2] - In 2024Q1, the gross margin further improved to 41.14%, up 6.94 percentage points YoY, and the net margin reached 13.56%, up 4.08 percentage points YoY [2][3] Market and Industry Analysis - The pet food market in China is expected to grow, with pet dog and cat populations increasing by 1.1% and 6.8% respectively in 2023 [2] - The penetration rate of finished pet food in China is still low compared to mature markets like the US and Japan, indicating significant growth potential [2] - The top 3 companies in China's pet food market accounted for 16.6% of the market share in 2022, with further consolidation expected [2] Product and Brand Performance - In 2023, the company's proprietary brand revenue reached RMB 2.745 billion, up 34.15% YoY [2] - The company's domestic revenue grew by 39.38% YoY in 2023, driven by increasing pet ownership and higher penetration of professional pet food [2] - The company's product structure has been optimized, with higher-margin products contributing to improved profitability [2][3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 553 million, RMB 713 million, and RMB 870 million in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - EPS is projected to be RMB 1.38, RMB 1.78, and RMB 2.18 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - The current PE ratio is 37.32x for 2024, 28.94x for 2025, and 23.72x for 2026, indicating reasonable valuation [3] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's valuation is in line with industry peers, with a PE ratio of 37.32x for 2024, compared to 22.20x for Zhongchong and 24.73x for Peidi [6] - The company's EPS growth is expected to outpace peers, with a projected EPS of RMB 1.38 in 2024, compared to RMB 0.98 for Zhongchong and RMB 0.55 for Peidi [6]