《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股宽幅震荡》 2025-02-06 《市场分析：半导体行业领涨 A 股震荡上扬》 2025-01-17 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 通信半导体行业领涨 A 股震荡上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：通信家电行业领涨 A 股小幅上 行》 2025-01-16 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10 号18 楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 02 月 06 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周四（02 月 06 日）A 股市场低开高走、震荡上行，早盘股指低开后 震荡上扬，盘中股指在 3263 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震荡， 尾盘再度震荡走高，盘中电机、半导体、游戏以及汽车等行业表现 较好；贵金属、银行、珠宝首饰以及煤炭等行业表现较弱，沪指全 天基本呈现震荡上扬的运行特征。创业板市场周四震荡上涨，创业 板成分指数全天表现强于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Accumulate" [5][11] Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in performance in 2025 after a disappointing 2024, where net profit is projected to drop by 70.93% to 76.74% compared to the previous year [7][5] - The main revenue source, the influenza vaccine, faced a price reduction of over 40% in June 2024, impacting sales and overall profitability [7][5] - Despite the challenges, the company continues to invest in innovative vaccine development and maintain a high level of R&D expenditure [7][5] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at 1,600 million, a decrease of 33.62% from 2023, with a projected recovery to 2,200 million in 2025 [5][8] - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be between 215 million and 250 million, a significant decline from 860 million in 2023, but is forecasted to rebound to 806 million in 2025 [5][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are revised down to 0.36 for 2024, with expectations of 1.34 and 1.23 for 2025 and 2026 respectively [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [12]. Core Insights - The company, Ailis (688578), reported a significant performance in 2024, with total revenue expected to reach 3.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.43 billion yuan, reflecting a 121.99% increase [7]. - The core product, Fumetnib, has been included in the national medical insurance directory for two indications, contributing to a steady increase in market share and sales revenue. The company has also implemented cost control measures to enhance profitability [7]. - The expansion of indications for Fumetnib is ongoing, with recent approvals for clinical trials aimed at new treatment applications, which are expected to further boost the company's performance [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are as follows: - 2024: Revenue of 3.55 billion yuan, net profit of 1.44 billion yuan - 2025: Revenue of 4.22 billion yuan, net profit of 1.67 billion yuan - 2026: Revenue of 5.28 billion yuan, net profit of 1.94 billion yuan [8][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.19 yuan in 2024, 3.72 yuan in 2025, and 4.32 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21.96, 18.85, and 16.22 respectively [8][9].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a high opening followed by a decline, with significant fluctuations observed on February 5, 2025. The index found support around 3228 points, and sectors such as software development, internet services, gaming, and home appliances performed well, while aviation, insurance, banking, and liquor sectors lagged behind [2][3][7] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3229.49 points, down 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose slightly by 0.08% to 10164.22 points. The ChiNext Index saw a minor decline of 0.04% [7][8] Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The current average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 13.84 times and 35.73 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][16] - The total trading volume for both markets reached 13005 billion, above the median of the past three years, suggesting robust market activity [3][16] - Recent policy signals from the Political Bureau meeting indicate a commitment to more proactive macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments, and boosting consumption through active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [3][16] - The Chinese economy is projected to maintain a recovery trend in 2025, with GDP growth expected to reach around 5%. Key economic indicators such as consumption, investment, and exports are anticipated to improve, supporting corporate earnings growth [3][16] - The report suggests focusing on short-term investment opportunities in sectors like software development, internet services, gaming, and home appliances, as these areas are expected to perform well in the current market environment [3][16]

Key Points Summary Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for various sectors, including electric equipment, photovoltaic industry, and medical devices, driven by macroeconomic policies and increasing demand [4][5][18][42]. Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,229.49, down 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,164.22, up 0.08% [3]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with fluctuations observed in various sectors, including semiconductor and electronic components showing positive performance [14]. Economic Indicators - The January Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.1, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while the Services PMI was at 51.0, down 1.2 percentage points [4][8]. - In 2024, China's GDP reached 13,490.84 billion yuan, growing by 5.0%, with industrial production and consumption showing stable growth [8]. Industry Analysis - The electric equipment sector outperformed the market, with a 1.53% increase in January, while the overall market saw a decline [15]. - The photovoltaic industry saw a record high in new installations, with 277.17 GW added in 2024, a 27.80% year-on-year increase [19]. - The medical device market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.71%, reaching a market size of 743.2 billion USD by 2027 [42]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the electric equipment and new materials sectors, suggesting potential for recovery and growth [16][41]. - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong fundamentals, such as electric equipment, photovoltaic materials, and medical devices, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies and market conditions [20][26][42].

Economic Indicators - In January 2024, the manufacturing PMI was 49.1, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[10] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2, down 2.0 percentage points, but still above the critical point, suggesting continued expansion in the services sector[10] - In January 2025, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 14,130 CNY/sqm, down 0.51% month-on-month and down 7.22% year-on-year[19] Industrial Performance - In 2024, the revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 2.1% year-on-year, while total profits decreased by 3.3% to 74,310.5 billion CNY[7] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 4.5%, outperforming the average industrial profit growth by 7.8 percentage points[7] - The equipment manufacturing sector showed resilience, with five out of eight industries reporting profit growth in 2024[7] Financial Market Trends - The bond market issued 79.3 trillion CNY in various bonds in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%[12] - By the end of 2024, the bond market's custody balance reached 177.0 trillion CNY, up 12.1% year-on-year[12] - The stock market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 12.7% to 3,351.8 points by the end of 2024[13] Innovation and R&D - In 2024, China's total R&D expenditure exceeded 3.6 trillion CNY, marking an 8.3% increase from the previous year[26] - The R&D intensity reached 2.68% of GDP, ranking 12th globally and surpassing the EU average of 2.11%[26] - High-tech manufacturing value added grew by 8.9%, significantly higher than the overall industrial growth rate of 5.8%[26] Trade and Tariffs - In 2024, China's service trade volume exceeded 1 trillion USD for the first time, with a total import and export value of 75,238 billion CNY, up 14.4% year-on-year[28] - The travel service sector experienced the fastest growth, with a total import and export value of 20,511.5 billion CNY, increasing by 38.1%[29] - In response to U.S. tariffs, China announced countermeasures, including additional tariffs on U.S. imports starting February 10, 2025[31][32]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 02 月 05 日 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 0% 6% 13% 19% 25% 32% 38% 44% 2024.02 2024.06 2024.09 2025.01 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | 上证指数 | | 3,250.60 | | -0.06 | | 深证成指 | | 10,156.07 | | -1.33 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,817.08 | | -0.41 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,61 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the power equipment and new energy sector, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [71][62]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with a 5.23% decline in the photovoltaic index in January, underperforming the CSI 300 index. The average daily trading volume in the photovoltaic sector dropped significantly to 21.7 billion yuan [6][8]. - In 2024, domestic new photovoltaic installations reached a record high of 277.17 GW, a year-on-year increase of 27.80%, with December alone contributing 70.87 GW, up 36.63% year-on-year [19][22]. - The supply-side adjustments in the photovoltaic industry are showing effects, with upstream prices stabilizing. The production of polysilicon decreased significantly, with December output at 103,800 tons, down 21.95% month-on-month [29][34]. - The report suggests that while the industry is entering a phase of destocking and capacity reduction, a complete turnaround in supply-demand dynamics and a return to growth will require more positive factors [62][62]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic index saw a significant drop in January, with most sub-sectors experiencing declines. The best-performing sub-sector was conductive silver paste, which increased by 3.77%, while polysilicon and solar modules saw declines of 10.45% and 7.92%, respectively [11][14]. - The overall performance of photovoltaic stocks was weak, with many companies reporting losses as they entered the annual performance forecast period [8][14]. Industry and Company Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a plan to optimize power system regulation capabilities to support the reasonable consumption of over 200 million kilowatts of new energy annually from 2025 to 2027 [15][15]. - The report highlights the importance of new technologies in the solar battery sector, including the development of perovskite heterojunction stacked batteries [48][48]. Key Data Points - The report notes that the cumulative export value of solar batteries in 2024 was 217.698 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.80%, with December exports amounting to 14.054 billion yuan, down 15.76% year-on-year [22][22]. - The average price of polysilicon stabilized at 39 yuan/kg as of January 15, 2025, with N-type silicon wafers experiencing price increases due to heightened demand [34][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with clear capacity clearance expectations, such as photovoltaic glass, integrated component manufacturers, polysilicon materials, and electronic silver paste [62][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" investment rating for the electrical equipment sector, indicating that the sector is expected to perform in line with the broader market over the next six months [6][75]. Core Insights - The electrical equipment index outperformed the CSI 300 index in January, rising by 1.53% compared to a decline of 2.59% for the CSI 300, marking a 4.12 percentage point advantage [3][9]. - The macroeconomic environment shows improvement, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024, supported by a series of incremental fiscal policies [6][16]. - Electricity consumption in 2024 reached 98,521 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, with all sectors showing growth [6][24]. - Investment in power and grid projects remains robust, with power engineering investments totaling 1,168.7 billion yuan, up 12.1% year-on-year, and grid engineering investments at 608.3 billion yuan, up 15.3% [6][36]. - The electrical equipment sector is experiencing strong demand driven by domestic grid construction and international market opportunities, particularly in the context of ongoing upgrades and expansions in Europe and the U.S. [6][36][49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The electrical equipment sector's performance in January was strong, with the index ranking 6th among major industry indices [3][9]. - Sub-sectors such as motors and power electronics showed positive growth, while transmission and distribution equipment faced declines [9][12]. Macroeconomic Overview - The overall economic outlook is positive, with a stable PMI indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities [6][16]. - The total fixed asset investment for 2024 was 514,374 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.2% year-on-year increase [16]. Electrical Equipment Sector - The sector's electricity consumption and production are on an upward trend, with significant increases in both [24][26]. - The average utilization hours for power generation equipment decreased slightly, while total installed capacity increased by 14.6% year-on-year [29][30]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights ongoing international demand for electrical equipment, with exports showing double-digit growth [6][49]. - The report notes a significant increase in the capacity of newly added transformer equipment, which rose by 25.19% year-on-year [34]. Investment Rating Details - The current PE ratio for the electrical equipment sector is 34.31, indicating a slight increase and positioning it at the historical median [68][70]. - The report anticipates that the sector's valuation may continue to recover as grid construction accelerates and export demand remains strong [72].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected relative increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [9][13]. Core Views - The company, established in 2004, specializes in drug research, development, and production services, providing integrated services across four main business segments: laboratory services, CMC services (small molecule CDMO), clinical research services, and large molecule and cell and gene therapy services [7][9]. - The company forecasts a revenue of 12 billion to 12.346 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4% to 7%. The net profit is expected to be between 1.729 billion and 1.857 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% to 16% increase [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be between 0.98 and 1.05 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 25.24, 22.52, and 19.00 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2022A: Revenue of 10,266 million yuan, net profit of 1,375 million yuan - 2023A: Revenue of 11,538 million yuan, net profit of 1,601 million yuan - 2024E: Revenue of 12,190 million yuan, net profit of 1,751 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 13,980 million yuan, net profit of 1,962 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 16,302 million yuan, net profit of 2,325 million yuan [8][10]. - The company’s gross margin is reported at 33.87%, with a diluted return on equity (ROE) of 10.62% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 40.49% [2][9].