TOP10 2020/6/30 煤炭 医药 电新 石油石化 电子 定期报告 关注受益于经济修复预期和外资流入的电新。（1）政策方面，国务院印发《2024—2025 年 节能降碳行动方案》方案要求，2024 年重点领域和行业节能降碳改造形成节能量约 5000 万吨 标准煤、减排二氧化碳约 1.3 亿吨，为新能源行业发展再次明确近年总体目标。（2）光伏方面， 组件价格每瓦跌破 0.8 元，边际高成本下产能加速出清，行业格局有望改善。风电方面，供给端， 风电自 2023 年 8 月来排产环比加速提升，整体交付饱满，1-4 月份新增风电装机容量 1684 万 千瓦，同比增加 264 万千瓦；需求端，一季度海上风电发电量同比增长 34.0%，一季度全国海 洋经济强劲复苏，海风开工窗口期开启。（3）储能与电力设备方面，国家发改委近日印发《电力 市场运行基本规则》对电力辅助服务交易、容量交易等进行了明确，着力构建适应高比例新能源 接入、传统电源提供可靠电力支撑、新型经营主体发展的电力市场体系架构。（4）估值角度，发 电及电网（18.2%，自 2005 年，下同），新能源动力系统（24.3%）、电源设备（26.4%）估值 处 ...

2024年05月30日 行业研究●证券研究报告 通信 行业快报 星座计划再扩容，蓝箭航天对标 星箭 Space X 投资评级 领先大市-B维持 一体发展路线 首选股票 评级 301517.SZ 陕西华达 增持-B 投资要点 688523.SH 航天环宇 增持-B 300342.SZ 天银机电 增持-B 事件：国际电信联盟近日公布一份数据资料，上海蓝箭鸿擎科技有限公司（以下简 300762.SZ 上海瀚讯 增持-B 称“鸿擎科技”）向国际电信联盟提交了预发信息（API）。该资料提到了一个名 002465.SZ 海格通信 增持-B 为Honghu-3的星座计划，将在160个轨道平面上总共发射10000颗卫星。 688418.SH 震有科技 增持-B 一年行业表现 国内星座计划持续扩容，国内低轨卫星互联网加速建设。5月24日，鸿擎科技 向国际电信联盟（ITU）提交了预发信息（API），该文件概述了一个名为Honghu-3 的星座的计划,它将在160个轨道平面上总共发射10000颗卫星，这是继星网 GW计划和G60星座后，国内又一个“万星星座”。中国星网2021年4月挂 牌成立，并于2023年7月成功发射试验星，开 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-B" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months with expected returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by 5% to 15% [11]. Core Views - The company has a robust order book and is expected to benefit from an improving industry landscape and rising demand due to infrastructure projects and mining capital expenditures [12][18]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the civil explosives industry, with strict supply controls and ongoing industry consolidation, which is expected to enhance its market position [12][18]. Financial Forecasts and Business Segmentation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 96.54 billion, 109.29 billion, and 122.12 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.6%, 13.2%, and 11.7% [12]. - Net profits are expected to be 7.66 billion, 9.00 billion, and 10.21 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 20.8%, 17.5%, and 13.5% [12]. - The company’s revenue from blasting services is forecasted to be 64.45 billion, 75.73 billion, and 87.09 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding gross margins of 20.5%, 21.0%, and 21.5% [16]. - Revenue from explosives is expected to be 19.00 billion, 19.74 billion, and 20.31 billion yuan, with gross margins of 37.50%, 38.41%, and 38.71% for the same period [16]. - The company’s revenue from detonators is projected to be 8.80 billion, 9.11 billion, and 9.53 billion yuan, with gross margins declining from 31.25% to 29.03% over the forecast period [5][17]. Comparative Analysis - The report compares the company with peers such as Guangdong Hongda, Guotai Group, and Jinaobo, noting that the average PE ratios for comparable companies are 18.3x, 14.4x, and 11.3x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [18]. - The company’s projected PE ratios are 20.5x, 17.5x, and 15.4x for the same years, indicating a premium valuation compared to its peers [18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" and it is maintained [1][3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue from electronic components and materials reached 2.196 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.32%. However, the gross margin decreased by 12.43 percentage points to 32.43% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the anticipated 6.8% quarter-on-quarter growth in global MLCC shipments in Q2 2024, reaching 1.23 trillion pieces, driven by demand from AI server orders and seasonal stocking for e-commerce events [1][3]. - The report projects the company's revenue for 2024 to be 7.010 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.4%, and net profit to be 1.902 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 20.3% [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 5.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.21%, and a net profit of 1.581 billion yuan, up 5.07% year-on-year. The gross margin was 39.83%, a decrease of 4.27 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][4]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.49%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.53%. The net profit for the same period was 0.433 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 40.14% [1][4]. - The report indicates that the company is focusing on MLCC technology innovation and the development of its new energy business, which is becoming a second growth curve [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for the company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 is as follows: 7.010 billion yuan in 2024, 8.692 billion yuan in 2025, and 10.083 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 22.4%, 24.0%, and 16.0% respectively [4][5]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 1.902 billion yuan in 2024, 2.429 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.820 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 20.3%, 27.7%, and 16.1% respectively [4][5].

交易数据 总股本（百万股） 407.66 甬矽电子（688362.SH） 公司快报 投资评级 增持-A(维持) 股价(2024-05-29) 20.67 元 流通市值（百万元） 5,693.03 12 个月价格区间 41.30/16.86 深入布局多维异构研发及产业化，带动尖端先进 事件点评 拟使用 9 亿元用于多维异构先进封装技术研发及产业化项目，达产后形成相关先进 多维异构封装为突破晶圆制程桎梏重要途径，在高算力芯片领域优势显著。长期以 数据中心/汽车/AI 带动芯片需求持续上涨，带动芯片封装新增量。在集成电路芯片 应用市场，高算力应用芯片如高性能服务器（HPC）和自动驾驶（ADAS）已逐渐 取代手机和个人电脑，成为下个阶段半导体行业持续增长的主要驱动力。以台积电 相关报告 甬矽电子：Q3 营收环比显著增长，打造 "Bumping + CP + FC + FT"一站式交付能 力-华金证券+电子+甬矽电子+公司快报 2023.10.31 数据来源：聚源、华金证券研究所 投资建议：鉴于当前半导体市场复苏进度，我们调整对公司原有业绩预期。预计 2024 年 至 2026 年 营 业 收 入 由 原 来 的 28 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the cultural and tourism industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 10% over the next six months compared to the CSI 300 index [1]. Core Viewpoints - Recent policy initiatives from the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments aim to stimulate the development of the cultural and tourism industry through eight key tasks, including upgrading sightseeing facilities and enhancing smart tourism [1]. - The cultural and tourism market is expected to continue its recovery, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, supported by stable economic growth in China, with a GDP of 12.6 trillion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 5.2% increase year-on-year [1]. - User engagement in travel-related apps has shown significant growth, with flight services, travel tools, and hotel services experiencing year-on-year increases of 37.1%, 35.4%, and 20.7%, respectively [1]. - The report highlights a trend of destination selection becoming more value-driven and relaxed, with a close connection to entertainment and consumer culture [1]. - The domestic film industry is on an upward trajectory, with total box office revenue reaching 54.915 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 83.5% [1]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The report outlines eight major tasks proposed by the government to enhance the cultural and tourism sector, which include upgrading various facilities and promoting high-tech initiatives [1]. Market Performance - The cultural and tourism market is projected to grow beyond pre-pandemic levels, driven by a robust economy and increasing user engagement in travel-related applications [1]. User Engagement - Data from QuestMobile indicates substantial growth in user numbers for travel-related apps, with significant year-on-year increases across various sectors [1]. Film Industry Growth - The report notes a significant recovery in the film industry, with a notable increase in box office revenue and the number of cinema screens, indicating a positive market outlook [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key companies in the cultural and tourism sector, including Huayi Brothers, Hengdian Film, Bona Film, and Wanda Film, among others, as potential investment opportunities [1].

2024年05月28日 行业研究●证券研究报告 半导体 行业快报 涨价叠加供需改善推动，存储市场加速回暖 投资评级 领先大市-A维持 投资要点 一年行业表现 在涨价叠加供需改善的推动下，24Q1存储原厂业绩表现亮眼。随着原厂产能转向 高附加值产品和需求复苏，利基存储市场有望加速回暖。此外，存储芯片或将成为 国家大基金三期的重点投资对象，相关产业链有望受益。 弱需求致短期现货市场承压，AI手机/AIPC存储容量提升拉动存储需求 具体看本周存储价格（截至5月28日11：00），根据CFM数据，1）FlashWafer： 本周FlashWafer价格维持不变。2）DDR：DDR416Gb3200/eTT和8GbeTT 价格小幅下跌。3）渠道市场：渠道市场仍处于去库存阶段，本周渠道内存价格 下调，降幅在4%~5%；渠道SSD价格持平。4）行业市场：小单询单有所增加， 资料来源：聚源 但大单依然较少，市场普遍谨慎观望，按需备货灵活应对，本周行业SSD价格 升幅% 1M 3M 12M 维持不变，行业内存小幅下跌。5）嵌入式：原厂稀缺资源供应持续紧张， 相对收益 -2.7 -10.35 -20.71 eMCP/LPDDR ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1][9]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a global leader in the PCB industry, benefiting from the AI technology revolution and the transformation of the automotive sector, which is expected to create new growth opportunities in PCB demand and pricing [1][9]. - The company has established a comprehensive one-stop service platform for PCB products, maintaining a competitive edge in the communications electronics and consumer electronics markets [1][2]. Financial Performance and Projections - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 32.066 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.287 billion yuan, with significant contributions from communication boards and consumer electronics [1][3]. - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 35.153 billion yuan, 39.178 billion yuan, and 43.570 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 9.6%, 11.5%, and 11.2% [2][8]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.832 billion yuan, 4.436 billion yuan, and 4.942 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.6%, 15.8%, and 11.4% [2][8]. Market Trends and Opportunities - The report highlights the expected growth in the automotive PCB market, driven by the rise of electric and smart vehicles, with a projected increase in demand for automotive PCBs by 50% from 2022 to 2028 [1][6]. - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to recover, supported by innovations in AI-driven products, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.1% expected from 2023 to 2028 [5][6]. Competitive Positioning - The company has maintained its status as the largest PCB manufacturer globally for seven consecutive years, with a diverse product line that includes FPC, HDI, and Mini LED boards [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in various regions, including Thailand and India, to meet growing global demand [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation with projected P/E ratios of 17.6, 15.2, and 13.6 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting the company's strong market position and growth potential [2][8].

| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 05 月 27 日 \n可选消费营收推动利润修复，如何延续？ \n工业企业利润点评（2024.4） | 宏观类 ● 证券研究报告 \n事件点评 \n分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号： S0910523080002 | | 投资要点 | qintai@huajinsc.cn | | 制造业营收大幅改善推动 4 月工业企业利润向好，展望后续我们关注当前趋势的可 | 报告联系人 周欣然 | | 持续性。 4 月工业企业利润累计同比 4.3% 与上月持平；单月同比 4.0%从 3 月的短 | zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn | | 暂低位显著回升 7.5 个百分点，但仍处于 2023 ...

2024年05月26日 行业研究●证券研究报告 食品饮料 行业周报 茅台批价波动不改长期趋势，饮料旺季来临重 投资评级 同步大市-A维持 视配置机会 首选股票 评级 投资要点 行情回顾：上周食品饮料（申万）行业下跌2.73%，在31个子行业中排名第8 位，跑输上证综指0.67pct，跑输创业板指0.25pct。二级（申万）子板块对比， 上周除饮料乳品外各板块均有不同程度下跌，休闲食品跌幅最大，下跌5.18%， 一年行业表现 饮料乳品则上涨0.95%。三级子行业中乳品涨幅领先，上涨1.84%，其余子板 块均有所下跌，零食表现最差，下跌5.22%。 上周大事： 茅台批价波动，黎明前的黑暗。本周茅台批价（24散飞）首次跌破2500元至 2495元，继4月10日跌至2505元后批价再次下跌，跌破茅台经销商盈亏平衡 线。茅台批价下跌主要原因有：一是近期巽风放量375毫升，而且经销商到货 比较多，二是市场淡季消费疲软。复盘12-15年白酒调整期，我们认为当下类 资料来源：聚源 似于14-15年，处于黎明前的黑暗时期。后续随着政策推出，行业及板块将迎 升幅% 1M 3M 12M 来新一波上行期。 相对收益 -1.45 ...