Group 1 - The new stock and newly listed sector is currently experiencing a weak and volatile trading environment, with a potential new active cycle still in the making [1][14] - The average increase of new stocks listed since 2024 is approximately -2.0%, with about 30.2% of new stocks achieving positive returns [1][30] - The trading enthusiasm for new stocks has encountered obstacles, but the overall trend of capital inflow remains intact, indicating that the sector's funds are gradually becoming more active [2][14] Group 2 - The average issuance price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for new stocks last week was 32.2X, with a relatively high P/E ratio of 62.0X for a specific stock [5][24] - Last week, the average first-day increase for newly listed stocks was over 340%, indicating a return to a relatively excited trading sentiment [5][28] - The average first-day closing P/E ratio for newly listed stocks in December has risen, reflecting a heightened revaluation of new stocks [19][20] Group 3 - The focus remains on technology sectors, particularly those related to AI computing and robotics, which are expected to continue evolving and have significant long-term growth potential [3][14] - The upcoming new stocks include companies from various sectors, with specific attention to their performance metrics and market positioning [4][39] - The average issuance P/E ratio for upcoming new stocks is projected to be 37.8X, indicating a slight increase in pricing expectations [35][36]

Market Concerns and Spring Market Outlook - The current market is concerned about the economic resilience in the medium to long term, with stock prices already reflecting pessimistic expectations sufficiently. November economic data showed a decline in retail sales and investment growth, but an increase in export growth, indicating structural recovery in consumption [7][12][16] - The impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on A-shares is limited. Historical data shows that the negative impact on US stocks is greater and more persistent than on A-shares. A-shares have historically shown resilience following such rate hikes [16][18] Spring Market Potential - The core factors influencing the initiation of the spring market include policies, external events, liquidity, and valuation sentiment. Historical patterns indicate that A-shares often experience adjustments before the spring market begins, with 15 out of 16 past spring markets showing some form of adjustment prior to initiation [24][26] - There is a possibility of a short-term spring market opening, with A-shares maintaining a slow bull trend. Short-term policies are expected to remain positive, and external risks are limited, with potential for further policy support to stimulate consumption [33][34] Industry Allocation - The technology growth sector is expected to maintain its advantage in the short term, with a shift in style being difficult due to high valuations and sentiment. Current valuations in technology sectors remain neutral to high, and liquidity may continue to ease [33][41] - There are potential allocation opportunities in certain consumer sectors supported by policy, particularly as the year-end approaches. The technology growth and some cyclical sectors may benefit from the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike [33][34][41] - Current sentiment and PEG ratios in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, media, and electric equipment are low, indicating potential for growth. A balanced allocation strategy is recommended across technology growth, cyclical, and consumer sectors [33][41]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected increase in stock price relative to the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [38]. Core Insights - The company, Shaanxi Tourism (603402.SH), operates in the tourism sector, integrating tourism performances, cable cars, dining, and project investment and management. It is recognized as a leader in the cultural tourism industry in Shaanxi Province, leveraging its rich cultural heritage and natural resources [7][27]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, with projected revenues of CNY 2.32 billion, CNY 10.88 billion, and CNY 12.63 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of -36.01%, 386.05%, and 17.86% respectively [8][34]. - The company is expected to face a decline in revenue and net profit in 2025, with forecasts indicating a decrease of 11.54% in revenue and 14.80% in net profit [2][34]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of CNY 2.32 billion in 2022, CNY 10.88 billion in 2023, and CNY 12.63 billion in 2024, with corresponding net profits of CNY -0.72 billion, CNY 4.27 billion, and CNY 5.12 billion [8][34]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenues of CNY 8.89 billion, a decrease of 18.80% year-over-year, and a net profit of CNY 3.69 billion, down 26.93% from the previous year [8]. Industry Overview - The tourism industry in China has been experiencing robust growth, with domestic tourism reaching 3.15 trillion CNY in revenue in the first half of 2025, a 15.2% increase year-over-year [16][20]. - Shaanxi Province is a significant cultural and historical tourism destination, with government initiatives aimed at enhancing its tourism infrastructure and promoting cultural heritage [20][25]. Company Highlights - The company is a pioneer in cultural tourism in Shaanxi, with its flagship performance "The Long Hate Song" being a major cultural attraction [27]. - The company has developed a strong brand presence in tourism performances, cable cars, and dining, with notable projects including the West Peak Cableway and the Tang Le Palace restaurant [7][27]. - The company plans to expand its performance offerings and enhance its operational capabilities through various investment projects, including the construction of new cultural performance venues [30][33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it is implied that the company is considered a strong player in its industry due to its market position and growth potential [38]. Core Insights - The company, Shuangxin Environmental Protection, is a leading player in the domestic polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) industry, with a complete circular economy industrial chain from limestone to calcium carbide, vinyl acetate, polyvinyl alcohol, and specialty fibers [28][29]. - The company has shown a decline in revenue and net profit from 2022 to 2024, with projected growth in 2025, indicating a potential recovery phase [10][35]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings and market reach, focusing on high-value-added PVA products and downstream applications [29][30]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenues of 5.061 billion yuan in 2022, 3.783 billion yuan in 2023, and 3.486 billion yuan in 2024, with year-over-year changes of 11.97%, -25.25%, and -7.85% respectively [10][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 808 million yuan in 2022, 558 million yuan in 2023, and 521 million yuan in 2024, with year-over-year changes of 3.48%, -30.91%, and -6.65% respectively [10][5]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.668 billion yuan, a 2.68% increase compared to the same period in 2024, and a net profit of 404 million yuan, a 2.01% increase [10]. Industry Overview - The company operates in the calcium carbide and polyvinyl alcohol industries, which are critical to the chemical sector in China, with the country being the largest producer and consumer of calcium carbide globally [16][21]. - The domestic calcium carbide production capacity was approximately 42 million tons in 2024, with a utilization rate of 74% [16]. - The polyvinyl alcohol market is also growing, with China's production capacity accounting for about 60% of the global total, indicating strong domestic demand and potential for further growth [21][27]. Competitive Position - Shuangxin Environmental Protection is one of the top three players in the domestic PVA industry, with significant market share and established relationships with major clients both domestically and internationally [28][29]. - The company has formed strategic partnerships, such as with Mitsubishi Chemical, enhancing its market presence and product offerings [28]. - Compared to its peers, the company has a lower revenue scale but a higher sales gross margin, indicating strong operational efficiency [35][36].

Group 1 - The new stock sector is experiencing increased trading willingness due to localized popularity, but the overall active cycle may still require observation [1][12] - The average increase of new stocks listed since 2024 is approximately 1.5%, with about 54.2% of stocks achieving positive returns [1][12] - The recent performance of specific new stocks, such as Moer Thread, has significantly boosted trading activity, indicating a potential rise in investor interest [1][12] Group 2 - The average issuance price-earnings ratio for new stocks in December has slightly increased, with the main board's average at 27.1X, up from 24.3X the previous month [13][19] - The first-day average closing price-earnings ratio for new stocks on the main board in December is 102.8X, significantly higher than the previous month's average of 63.1X [16][19] - The first-day trading enthusiasm for new stocks has cooled, with an average first-day increase of only 146.6%, compared to 350% in the previous week [24][25] Group 3 - Upcoming new stocks include Angrui Micro and Muxi Co., with average issuance price-earnings ratios of 33.7X for the new stocks expected to be listed [3][31] - The new stocks set to be issued this week include 7 stocks across various boards, maintaining a good subscription profit effect [31][32] - Specific companies like Jianxin Superconducting and Shuangxin Environmental Protection are highlighted for their potential, with significant expected revenue growth [32][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [4][10] Core Viewpoints - The AI competition landscape is deepening in multiple dimensions, accelerating the evolution of ecological applications [2] - AI creative and reasoning applications are entering a high growth phase, with programming and role-playing becoming core scenarios [7] - The report highlights the significant user growth and engagement in the AI creative sector, with active users exceeding one million for leading products [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - The relative return over 1 month is -0.86%, over 3 months is -7.8%, and over 12 months is -4.17% [6] - The absolute return over 1 month is -3.01%, over 3 months is -7.71%, and over 12 months is 9.95% [6] AI Creative Sector Insights - In November 2025, over 200 AI creative web products had a total visit count exceeding 27 million, with independent visitors surpassing 7.7 million [7] - Leading products like Jimeng AI and Gaoding AI have over one million active users, with significant growth in independent visitor numbers for Canva and Keling AI [7] - The average usage time for several products exceeds 8 minutes, indicating strong user engagement [7] AI Development Trends - The AI development is entering a "great divergence" phase, with open-source models capturing 30% of traffic globally, and Chinese open-source models leading in specific scenarios [7] - The report notes a shift from generating text to problem-solving capabilities in AI, with programming requests increasing from 11% to over 50% [7] - The multi-model ecosystem is becoming clearer, with closed-source models handling high-value tasks and open-source models focusing on low-cost, high-concurrency needs [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as BlueFocus, Kunlun Wanwei, Tianyu Digital Science, Yinsai Group, Visual China, and HuiLiang Technology as potential investment opportunities [7]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to fully tap into economic potential and stabilize the birth population as key policy directions, indicating a clear intention to expand domestic demand and stabilize economic growth [5][7] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is highlighted as the primary direction for policy in 2026, with an emphasis on both goods and service consumption, as well as increased infrastructure investment to stabilize the real estate market [7][8] - The report indicates that innovation-driven development and the cultivation of new productive forces will remain major policy directions, with a call for deeper integration of technological and industrial innovation [7][8] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to continue a slow bull trend, potentially driving the onset of a spring market rally, supported by expectations of economic recovery and profit restoration [8][11] - Specific industries such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), machinery, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, military, new energy, and new consumption are identified as likely beneficiaries of the favorable policy environment [11] - The report highlights that sectors related to innovation, such as TMT and machinery, are expected to benefit from the emphasis on innovation-driven policies and high-quality development of key industrial chains [11]

2025 年 12 月 11 日 策略类●证券研究报告 美联储降息进一步催化春季行情开启 事件点评 投资要点 事件：美联储近日宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点。 对 A 股行业配置的影响：科技和周期等行业可能受益。（1）科技成长和部分周期 行业短期可能受益于美联储降息。一是复盘历史，美联储降息周期中，产业趋势上 行或高景气的行业相对占优。二是当前来看，科技成长和部分周期行业可能相对占 优：首先，以人工智能和机器人为代表的科技产业趋势在中短期可能持续上行；其 次，受益于涨价和新材料需求上升的有色金属、化工等部分周期行业景气度持续上 升。（2）美联储降息下，短期建议关注：一是产业趋势上行的 TMT、商业航天、 机器人、电新、创新药等科技行业；二是高景气的有色金属和化工等周期行业。 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用、政策超预期变化、经济修复不及预期。 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 定 调 积 极 ， ...

2025 年 12 月 09 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 光力科技（300480.SZ） 公司快报 深化封测切割/减薄，在手订单持续稳定增长 投资要点 产品线不断丰富，ADT 整体经营情况逐步恢复以前年度水平。公司半导体封测装 备主要应用于封测中的晶圆切割、封装体切割、晶圆减薄工艺环节。对应两大类设 备，分别是切割划片机和减薄机。公司生产的半导体切割划片机广泛应用于集成电 路、功率半导体器件、MiniLED、传感器等多种产品，可以实现对硅、碳化硅、氮 化镓、砷化镓、蓝宝石、陶瓷、水晶、石英、玻璃等多种材料的划切，已成功应用 于先进封装中划切工艺。晶圆减薄工艺主要应用在封装测试和晶圆材料生产中，目 前在部分功率半导体的晶圆制造环节也是不可或缺的，公司研发生产的减薄机已应 用于硅、碳化硅晶圆的减薄工艺。公司紧跟行业发展趋势和市场需求变化，不断丰 富产品线，推动产品的升级迭代和新产品、新工艺的开发，初步完成了机械切割、 激光切割、研磨设备布局，公司开发的用于基板切割的 JIG SAW 7260 和用于 DBG 工艺且更加智能的 8231 均在验证中，用于半导体 Low-K 开槽的激光划片机 9130 和用于超薄晶圆 ...

| 交易数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 总股本（百万股） | 58.80 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | | 12 个月价格区间 | / | | 分析师 | 李蕙 | | SAC 执业证书编号：S0910519100001 | | | 报告联系人 | lihui1@huajinsc.cn 戴筝筝 | | daizhengzheng@huajinsc.cn | | 2025 年 12 月 09 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 元创股份（001325.SZ） 新股覆盖研究 投资要点 12 月 9 日有一只主板新股"元创股份"申购，发行价格为 24.75 元/股、发行市盈 率为 12.93 倍（每股收益按照 2024 年度公司经审计的扣除非经常性损益前后孰低 的归属于母公司股东的净利润除以发行后总股本计算）。 元创股份（001325）：公司专业从事研发、生产、销售橡胶履带类产品，具体包 括农用机械橡胶履带、工程机械橡胶履带和橡胶履带板等。公司 2022-2024 年分 别 实 现 营 业 收 入 12.61 亿 元 /11.41 亿 元 / ...