2025 年 05 月 04 日 策略类●证券研究报告 节后开启震荡反弹，五月震荡偏强 定期报告 投资要点 假期期间担忧的风险基本未发生，节后可能开启震荡反弹。（1）假期期间海外风 险事件并未发生，国内政策继续偏积极。一是假期期间中国商务部表示中方正在对 美方主动要求谈判进行评估，中美谈判可能性增大。二是假期期间国内积极的政策 进一步落地实施。（2）假期期间海外流动性宽松预期未有变化。一是美国 4 月份 制造业 PMI、新增非农就业人数环比、平均时薪同比增速等均有所回落；二是美联 储继续降息概率仍较大，美元维持低位。（3）假期期间国内出行和消费数据火爆。 复盘历史，影响 5 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、基本面和流动性。 （1）5 月 A 股表现多偏弱：2010 年以来的 15 年中上证综指仅有 6 次 5 月上涨。 （2）影响 5 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、基本面和流动性。一是政 政策宽松或外部事件积极则上证综指 5 月可能上涨，如 2014 年"新国九条"发布、 2015 年央行调降 LPR、2021 "双碳"目标确立等；否则 A 股表现可能偏弱，如 2010、2011 年欧债 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to continue its development with a good order backlog and new products contributing to revenue growth, particularly in the context of the growing electric vehicle (EV) market [2][5] - The company has established projects with major automotive manufacturers such as Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, Tesla, BYD, General Motors, Audi, Ford, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, SAIC, Great Wall, Chery, and Geely for the development of EV components [2][5] - The company reported a revenue of 1.562 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.44%, and a net profit of 146 million yuan, up 16.64% year-on-year [4][7] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 390 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.98%, and a net profit of 30 million yuan, up 2.53% year-on-year [4][7] - The company's revenue growth in 2024 was primarily driven by the demand for axle and steering knuckle products, with significant revenue growth rates of 62.46% and 55.06% respectively [4][7] - The gross margin for 2024 was 20.02%, down 1.24 percentage points from 2023, mainly due to a 43.08% increase in raw material costs [4][7] Future Outlook - The company is expanding its product applications into new areas such as robotics and aerospace, establishing a new subsidiary to enhance its R&D capabilities in these fields [6][7] - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 1.939 billion yuan, 2.456 billion yuan, and 2.925 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24.1%, 26.7%, and 19.1% [8][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.16 yuan, 1.54 yuan, and 1.87 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21.5x, 16.2x, and 13.3x [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company demonstrates both profit resilience and growth potential, with a favorable outlook for the wind power industry in 2025 [1] - The company is a leader in the wind power casting sector, with expected increases in market share as production capacity gradually releases [6] - The company has established a solid market position in key sectors such as wind power and shipbuilding through continuous technological innovation [6] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 624 million yuan, up 29.55% year-on-year [6] - The company forecasts revenues of 6.006 billion yuan, 6.911 billion yuan, and 7.736 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 710 million yuan, 817 million yuan, and 974 million yuan [8][9] - The gross margin for 2024 was 17.31%, with a projected increase to 20.2% in 2025 [6][8] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company reported a production and sales volume of 491,900 tons and 490,400 tons of castings in 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 9.49% and 9.58% respectively [6] - As of December 31, 2024, the company has established a casting capacity of 700,000 tons and precision processing capacity of 420,000 tons [6] Market and Policy Environment - The company is benefiting from policy incentives aimed at accelerating the construction of renewable energy bases, particularly in the northwest region of China [6] - The company has implemented supporting production capacity for wind power projects in the northwest, enhancing its competitive edge in the casting industry [6] Research and Development - The company invested 227 million yuan in R&D in 2024, holding 174 authorized patents, including 66 invention patents [6] - The company has successfully applied ductile iron technology to large megawatt wind turbine shaft products, achieving performance levels comparable to forged shafts [6] Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.69 yuan, 0.79 yuan, and 0.95 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 15, and 13 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth, driven by its "Big IP + Technology" strategy, which is accelerating its implementation [1] - The marketing business is ensuring overall revenue growth, with promotional services becoming a significant growth driver [7] - The company is expanding its IP resource reserves and developing IP cultural products, forming a matrix of "National Trend" and "International" IP [7] - The company has successfully obtained licensing for major events, which is expected to contribute additional profits in 2025 [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,692 million in 2023 to 3,883 million by 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 10.8% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from a loss of 184 million in 2024 to a profit of 167 million by 2027 [3] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 15.5% in 2023 to 17.4% in 2027 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.09 in 2023 to 0.64 in 2027 [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 160.1 in 2023 to 22.6 in 2027, indicating improved valuation [3] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of April 30, 2025, was 14.46 [4] - The total market capitalization is approximately 3,788.23 million [4] - The company has experienced a relative return of 1.5% over the past month [6]

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, the overall equity position of actively managed equity funds increased to 85.47%, up by 0.40 percentage points from Q4 2024 [4][5][12] - The main sectors with increased holdings included financial real estate, consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical industries, with financial real estate seeing the largest increase from 3.7% to 4.3% [9][12] - Actively managed equity funds increased their positions in the automotive and chemical sectors while reducing exposure to military, environmental protection, and transportation sectors [12][19] Group 2 - The top five sectors for actively managed equity funds in Q1 2025 were electronics (20.3%), pharmaceuticals (10.4%), basic chemicals (8.9%), public utilities (7.2%), and communications (6.9%) [12][19] - The top five sectors with the largest increases in holdings were automotive (+0.8%), basic chemicals (+0.6%), real estate (+0.3%), construction materials (+0.2%), and public utilities (+0.2%) [12][19] - The top five sectors with the largest decreases in holdings were military defense (-0.9%), environmental protection (-0.6%), transportation (-0.6%), computers (-0.3%), and steel (-0.2%) [12][19] Group 3 - In Q1 2025, large-scale actively managed equity funds increased their positions in non-ferrous metals and home appliances while reducing exposure to non-bank financials and food and beverage sectors [19][24] - The top five sectors for large-scale actively managed equity funds were electronics (19.0%), food and beverage (16.5%), power equipment (11.3%), non-bank financials (9.7%), and pharmaceuticals (9.5%) [19][24] - The top five sectors with the largest increases in holdings were non-ferrous metals (+3.0%), home appliances (+2.3%), power equipment (+1.6%), machinery (+0.9%), and automotive (+0.7%) [19][24] Group 4 - The concentration of holdings in the top 20 stocks increased significantly in Q1 2025, with the top 5 holdings rising to 18.5%, top 10 to 27.7%, and top 100 to 65.9% [23][29] - The top 20 stocks with the largest increases in holdings were primarily in the electronics, automotive, and communications sectors [25][31] - The top three stocks with the largest increases in holdings were BYD, Zijin Mining, and Chipone Technology [25][31] Group 5 - Expectations for Q2 2025 indicate that holdings in technology, consumer, and certain cyclical sectors may remain high due to government policies promoting AI and consumption [32][33] - The agricultural and food and beverage sectors are expected to see increased holdings due to low current positions and improving consumption potential [32][33] - The construction materials sector is anticipated to benefit from ongoing real estate policies and increased demand [32][33]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the secondary trading performance of new stocks has been flat, but there are signs that the first-day trading sentiment may be accelerating towards a bottom [1][12][22] - The average increase of new stocks listed in 2024 is approximately 0.6%, with about 62.2% of new stocks showing positive returns [12][28] - The report suggests that the cautious trading atmosphere in the secondary market is likely to continue for a short period, while the first-day trading sentiment has significantly cooled down, reaching a low point not seen since September 2024 [2][12][19] Group 2 - The report highlights that there were no new stocks available for online subscription last week, and the average first-day increase of newly listed stocks was below 100%, indicating a decline in enthusiasm for new stock trading [4][25][26] - The average issuance price-earnings ratio for new stocks in April has decreased, with the average for the ChiNext board at 14.4X, down from 21.1X in March [13][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring specific sectors that may benefit from policy expectations or changes in the external environment, particularly in industries like robotics and AI [2][12][41] Group 3 - The report notes that there are no new stocks scheduled for listing this week, but two new stocks will open for subscription, and three will begin the inquiry process [3][36][37] - The report recommends focusing on near-term new stocks that are scarce and have stable performance expectations, especially those that may benefit from policy catalysts [2][41][42] - The report identifies specific stocks to watch, including Suzhou Tianmai, Top Cloud Agriculture, and others, suggesting that investors remain flexible and observant for potential opportunities [8][41][42]

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, the total scale of northbound capital reached 2.30 trillion yuan, an increase of 119.15 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter [1][8] - The proportion of holdings in the main board continued to decline, while the proportion of holdings in cyclical and growth sectors increased [1][8] - The proportion of northbound capital in cyclical and growth sectors rose by 1.23 percentage points and 0.55 percentage points respectively [1][8] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the largest sectors by northbound capital holdings were power equipment and new energy, banking, and electronics [2][13] - The automotive sector saw a significant increase in holdings by 5.96% (+1.17 percentage points), while electronics increased by 9.89% (+0.94 percentage points) [2][13] - The estimated net inflow for electronics was 16.83 billion yuan, and for automotive, it was 15.67 billion yuan [2][13] Group 3 - Core assets and technology growth stocks, such as BYD and North Huachuang, saw significant changes in holding sizes and net inflows [3][22] - The top five stocks with the largest increase in holding value were BYD (+19.90 billion yuan), China Merchants Bank (+10.60 billion yuan), and North Huachuang (+7.38 billion yuan) [3][22] - The concentration of holdings among the top five stocks increased to 20.7%, indicating a trend of foreign capital clustering towards leading stocks [3][22] Group 4 - Future northbound capital is likely to continue flowing into core assets and technology leading stocks [4][28] - The inflow trend may remain unchanged due to favorable economic indicators and reasonable A-share valuations [4][28] - Key sectors for future investment include core assets and technology, with a focus on stocks like BYD and North Huachuang [4][28]

美对华加征关税对 A 股的影响如何？ 主题报告 投资要点 关注部分国产率提高、对美出口敞口低且美对中依赖较高的相关高端制造、周期等 行业。（1）比照复盘，当下部分科技及周期行业受政策支持基本面改善下受到加 征关税冲击可能小于 2018 年。（2）当前来看，通信、建筑材料等行业当前对美 出口敞口小且美对中进口依赖度高，本轮关税影响可能较小。从贸易依赖绝对值来 看，2024 年美国对中国依赖度较高的前 5 个行业，从高到低排序分别为建筑材料 （39.5%）、轻工制造（27.5%）、纺织服装（27.3%）、电子（22.7%）、机械 设备（18.4%），这 5 个行业均高于 2024 年中国对美国的依赖度，因此可能受到 2025 年新一轮关税影响较小。（3）当前来看，家具及家居用品、塑料制品等出口 份额产业近年由美国转移至欧洲、东南亚等新兴市场，受本轮加征关税冲击可能较 小。中国在逐步调整出口市场结构，将更多的出口份额转向东南亚、欧洲等市场， 制造业、汽车、家具、塑料制品等领域和对应行业在面对关税压力时，受本轮潜在 关税冲击的程度显著低于 2018 年。 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用、政策超预期变化、经济修复不及 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that the expected return over the next 6-12 months is greater than 15% compared to the relevant market index [34]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Jiangshun Technology, specializes in the research, production, and sales of aluminum extrusion molds and accessories, supporting equipment, and precision mechanical components. It has established a strong market position and is expected to benefit from the accelerating trend of "using aluminum instead of steel" [2][7][25]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, with projected revenues of 892 million, 1,042 million, and 1,136 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 20.35%, 16.82%, and 9.01% [8][31]. - The company has a solid customer base, including major domestic and international aluminum manufacturers, and holds a market share of approximately 6% in the domestic aluminum extrusion mold sector [26][27]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company reported revenues of 892 million yuan in 2022, 1,042 million yuan in 2023, and is projected to reach 1,136 million yuan in 2024, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 20.35%, 16.82%, and 9.01% [8][31]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 139 million yuan in 2022, 146 million yuan in 2023, and is expected to be 155 million yuan in 2024, with year-over-year growth rates of 33.95%, 5.14%, and 6.30% [8][31]. Industry Situation - The aluminum extrusion mold industry is experiencing growth due to the increasing demand from various sectors, including construction, transportation, and renewable energy. The market size of the mold industry in China has been steadily increasing, with projections indicating continued growth in the coming years [17][21]. Company Highlights - Jiangshun Technology is one of the few companies in China that can provide a one-stop service for extrusion molds and supporting equipment, which positions it well to benefit from the shift towards aluminum in various applications [25][26]. - The company has high capacity utilization rates, exceeding 90%, and has initiated projects to expand production capacity, which will significantly enhance its operational capabilities [27][28]. Fundraising Project Investment - The company plans to invest in two main projects: the expansion of precision mold production and the construction of an aluminum extrusion equipment production line, with a total investment of approximately 560 million yuan [28][29]. Comparison with Peers - Compared to similar companies in the industry, Jiangshun Technology's revenue and gross margin are positioned in the mid-to-high range, indicating a competitive standing within the market [31][32].

2025 年 04 月 13 日 策略类●证券研究报告 外力巨震下新股周期情绪冰点或提前显现，建议密切关注局部变化 新股专题 投资要点 新股周观点：上周，新股休整周期遭遇外部风险事件剧烈冲击，新股次新板块出现 巨震，周期情绪冰点或已经提前显现。短期，外部重大事件可能的情绪冲击或告一 段落，整体市场情绪预计将重归平稳；虽然新股休整周期结束尚需观察、而业绩深 水区扰动或也在所难免，但伴随新股休整周期情绪冰点或已现，局部修正已经较为 充分的稀缺性新股或有提前活跃可能，建议适度警惕的同时密切关注局部正面变 化。 （1）新股次新板块出现剧烈震荡；假设以 2024 年以来上市的新股次新板块比较 来看，上周板块平均涨幅-10.4%，实现正收益占比约 9.5%。 （2）短期来看，我们倾向于认为，在经过一个多星期的大国博弈及市场巨震修正， 可能重大事件带来的大部分情绪冲击或已经得以消化，市场情绪正在重归平稳；而 从新股次新板块角度，虽然从时间维度正常本轮休整周期尚未结束，但由于本就休 整周期叠加重大事件冲击、情绪冰点或已经在上周提前出现，不排除局部具备较高 性价比和稀缺性的新股次新标的或有提前活跃可能性；因此，建议暂时继续保持 ...