电新、电子三季度外资持仓规模上升 事件点评 投资要点 2025 年 11 月 06 日 策略类●证券研究报告 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 张欣诺 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 陆股通持仓继续上升，主板持仓占比大幅下滑，成长板块持仓占比大幅上升。首先， 整体来看，2025 年三季度陆股通持仓总规模达到 2.57 万亿元，较上季度环比增加 2831.26 亿元。其次，变化上：板块方面，2025Q3 陆股通资金主板持仓占比较 2025Q2 大幅下降 8.47pcts，创业板上升 6.77pcts，科创板上升 1.70pcts；风格方 面，2025Q3 成长、周期陆股通资金持仓占比环比上升 11.80pcts、0.41pcts，金融、 消费、稳定风格分别下降 6.16pcts、3.22pcts、2.83pcts。 电新、电子持仓规模上升，食饮、非银持仓规模下降。（1）持仓上：首先， Q3 陆股通持仓规模最大的行业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's strong performance is driven by the success of the film "Little Monster," which has generated significant revenue and profit [5] - The company is focusing on an "AI + IP" strategy to enhance its business model and create new growth opportunities [5] - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting revenues of 8.97 billion, 10.94 billion, and 12.70 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding net profits of 2.39 billion, 3.14 billion, and 3.89 billion [5] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 795 million, with a year-on-year growth of 115.9%, followed by a decline of 13.2% in 2024, and a recovery with growth rates of 29.9%, 22.0%, and 16.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][6] - Net profit for 2023 is expected to be 127 million, with a significant increase of 137.9% year-on-year, followed by a decrease of 29.1% in 2024, and a strong recovery with growth rates of 165.7%, 31.1%, and 23.8% for the subsequent years [2][6] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 22.8% in 2023 to 42.8% by 2027 [2][6] - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 100.1 in 2023 to 32.7 by 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [2][6] Performance Highlights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 723 million, a year-on-year increase of 29.09%, and a net profit of 139 million, up 29.81% [5] - The film "Little Monster" has grossed 1.707 billion at the box office, ranking fifth in the annual box office for 2025 in China [5] - Cost control measures have led to a significant increase in overall gross margin to 48.16%, reflecting a 29.05 percentage point increase year-on-year [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is leveraging AI and IP to create an ecological matrix that drives stable revenue growth through multi-level optimization [5] - The company has shown strong performance in its gaming segment, with a focus on expanding its product matrix through AI and IP integration [5] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected revenue for 2023 is 4,295 million, with a year-on-year growth of 15.3%. Revenue is expected to reach 5,118 million in 2024, 6,164 million in 2025, 7,182 million in 2026, and 8,350 million in 2027 [3][6] - Projected net profit for 2023 is 1,462 million, with a year-on-year growth of 42.6%. Net profit is expected to be 1,628 million in 2024, 2,157 million in 2025, 2,565 million in 2026, and 3,102 million in 2027 [3][6] - The gross margin is projected to be 83.5% in 2023, gradually decreasing to 81.7% by 2027 [3][6] - The company’s P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 34.4 in 2023 to 16.2 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [3][6] Recent Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 40.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.75%, and a net profit of 15.83 billion, up 23.70% year-on-year [5] - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, reaching 6.33 billion, which is a 34.51% increase year-on-year [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its product offerings with new game releases and AI applications, including the AI game development platform "SOON" and various IP-based mobile games [5] - The "Legendary Box" initiative aims to transform the company from a single product competitor to an ecological operator, enhancing its market position [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The company's strong performance is driven by a successful product matrix, with new games expected to contribute positively in the future [6][7] - The company achieved significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 129.19%, and a net profit increase of 307.70% [6][7] - The overall gross margin improved to 94.59%, reflecting effective cost control despite increased marketing and R&D expenses [6][7] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 53.35 billion, 59.98 billion, and 64.70 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 15.26 billion, 18.49 billion, and 20.61 billion [6][7] - The company's P/E ratios are projected to decrease from 21.6 in 2025 to 16.0 in 2027, indicating potential for value appreciation [6][7] - The gross margin is expected to remain high, with estimates of 91.9% in 2025 and gradually increasing to 92.1% by 2027 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [3][9][24] Core Views - The company is focused on the automotive intelligent diagnosis, testing analysis systems, and automotive electronic components, positioning itself as a global leader in the automotive aftermarket solutions [10][24] - The company is actively expanding into intelligent detection, new energy charging piles, and embodied intelligence, creating new growth curves [9][10] - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 50.41 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.2% [9][22] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 34.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.33 billion yuan, up 35.49% year-on-year [6][11] - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 11.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.59%, and a net profit of 2.53 billion yuan, up 63.49% year-on-year [6][11] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 55.41%, with a net profit margin of 20.98% [6][11] Business Segments - The automotive repair intelligent terminal business is steadily developing, while the charging pile business is beginning to grow rapidly, with revenue from charging piles reaching 5.24 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38.53% [12][16] - The company is implementing an "AI-driven" strategy, enhancing its business through AI technology integration across various segments, including intelligent terminals and charging solutions [2][16] - The company has established a global production and supply chain network, with manufacturing bases in China, Vietnam, and the United States, to mitigate trade risks [17][24] Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 50.41 billion yuan, 62.89 billion yuan, and 76.05 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 9.55 billion yuan, 12.57 billion yuan, and 15.60 billion yuan [9][22] - The company expects to maintain a gross profit margin of around 55% over the next few years, with specific segments like AI and software achieving margins above 98% [22][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected relative increase of more than 15% in the next 6-12 months compared to relevant market indices [40]. Core Insights - The company, Zhongcheng Consulting, focuses on cost consulting, full-process control, bidding agency, and engineering supervision services, with a strong market presence in Jiangsu Province, where over 95% of its revenue is generated [2][29]. - The company has shown consistent revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, with revenues of 303 million, 368 million, and 396 million yuan, representing year-over-year growth rates of 11.58%, 21.41%, and 7.39% respectively [8][4]. - The company is actively expanding its business beyond Jiangsu Province, with plans to cover markets nationwide and has established a branch in Singapore for international development [31][2]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved revenues of 303.4 million, 368.4 million, and 395.6 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, with corresponding net profits of 64.4 million, 81.1 million, and 105.4 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 37.60%, 25.95%, and 30.02% respectively [4][8]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 191 million yuan, a decrease of 4.08% year-on-year, and a net profit of 53 million yuan, down 2.66% year-on-year [8][2]. Industry Situation - The engineering consulting service industry is experiencing growth due to favorable regulatory policies and increasing urbanization rates in China, which rose from 63.89% in 2020 to 67.00% in 2024 [16][2]. - The number of engineering consulting firms in China has increased significantly, from 10,489 in 2020 to 16,536 in 2024, indicating a robust market expansion [17][2]. Company Highlights - Zhongcheng Consulting has developed a differentiated competitive advantage by integrating full-process consulting services with BIM technology, enhancing project efficiency and quality [29][30]. - The company has established strong relationships with key clients, including Suzhou High-tech Zone Group, which is both a major customer and a shareholder [30][2]. Fundraising Project Investment - The company plans to invest 19.99 million yuan in two projects: the construction of a consulting service network and the development of a smart cost management platform [33][34]. - The consulting service network project aims to expand the company's market share by establishing 11 new branches across the country [34][33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.039 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.20%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 373 million yuan, a decrease of 18.71% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 1.515 billion yuan, up 27.48% year-on-year and 14.13% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for Q3 was 130 million yuan, down 13.84% year-on-year but up 8.99% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The revenue growth was primarily driven by the peak sales season in consumer electronics and automotive electronics. The company, as a leader in RF connectors, benefited from the dual drivers of consumer electronics and automotive sectors [5] - The company is expanding its production capacity in response to downstream demand, which has led to increased operational costs. Factors such as product price adjustments, structural changes, and relocation costs have impacted overall profitability [5] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 29.58%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 9.23%, down 4.53 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3, the gross margin was 29.85%, down 3.75 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.62 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company has a complete range of automotive connector products and has established strong partnerships with major domestic and international clients, leading to stable growth in this business segment [5] - The company is also focusing on the AI and robotics sectors, collaborating with leading robotics companies to develop high-frequency, high-speed connectors for humanoid robots and expanding into data center server applications [5] Financial Data and Projections - The company expects revenues of 5.856 billion yuan, 7.280 billion yuan, and 8.870 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.6%, 24.3%, and 21.8% [6] - The projected net profits for the same years are 601 million yuan, 889 million yuan, and 1.110 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -3.4%, +48.0%, and +24.8% respectively [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.41 yuan, 2.09 yuan, and 2.61 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in its main business, supported by digital intelligence empowerment and a solid fundamental base [1][7] - The company has achieved significant cost optimization, leading to an increase in overall gross margin to 37.50% in Q3 2025, despite a decline in revenue due to business restructuring [7][8] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from population growth in Guangdong province, with a stable business foundation and ongoing digital transformation initiatives [7][8] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 96.69 billion, 101.98 billion, and 107.60 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.18 billion, 12.71 billion, and 13.97 billion [7][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.27, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.7 [3][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 12.9% in 2025, with a net profit margin of 11.6% [3][8]

Group 1 - The new stock sector experienced a significant rebound last week, with an average increase of 4.9% since the beginning of 2024, and approximately 90.8% of new stocks achieving positive returns [1][13][30] - The short-term sentiment in the new stock market is expected to stabilize after a period of volatility, but the upcoming quarterly earnings reports may introduce performance disturbances [2][13] - The focus remains on sectors with stable earnings expectations, particularly in new energy, new consumption, and non-ferrous metals, while also tracking long-term investment themes such as robotics, AI, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][13] Group 2 - Last week, two new stocks were listed, with an average first-day increase of 263%, indicating high trading enthusiasm despite some differentiation in performance [5][27] - The average first-day closing price-to-earnings ratio for new stocks in October has significantly increased to 106.4X, compared to 54.5X in the previous month, suggesting a rising trend in new stock pricing [18][20] - The upcoming week will see the listing of several new stocks, including He Yuan Biological and Xi'an Yicai, with an average issuance price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8X for new stocks expected to be listed [4][35][38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][36] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that artificial intelligence (AI) is driving a semiconductor supercycle, with significant investments and collaborations in the sector, such as Anthropic's partnership with Google, which includes a deal for up to one million custom TPU chips [3] - Major memory manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are expected to raise prices of DRAM and NAND storage products by up to 30% in response to the surge in AI-driven demand [3] - Amphenol reported a 53.35% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2025, driven by the growing demand for data center solutions [3] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in overall computing power by 2035, predicting a growth of up to 100,000 times, emphasizing the transformative potential of general artificial intelligence [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The electronic industry saw a weekly increase of 8.49% from October 20 to October 24, with the communication sector leading at 11.55% [6] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose from 6,885.03 points to 6,976.94 points during the same period, indicating a positive trend since April 2025 [11] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking 2.1 Panel Prices - TV panel prices are expected to stabilize due to healthy inventory levels, with no significant changes anticipated for various sizes [17] 2.2 Memory Prices - Prices for DDR5 and DDR4 memory chips have shown an upward trend, with DDR5 increasing from $10.457 to $12.615 and DDR4 from $24.333 to $24.721 between October 20 and October 24 [21]