Group 1: New Stock Market Performance - The average increase of new stocks listed since 2024 is approximately 3.0%, with about 82.9% of new stocks showing positive returns[1] - The average increase for new stocks on the North Exchange is 5.5%, with around 96.2% of new stocks experiencing gains[5] - The average issuance price-to-earnings ratio for new stocks last week was 24.2X, with a subscription success rate of 0.0267%[4] Group 2: Market Trends and Recommendations - The current market is in a transformation window, with significant policy clarity expected to gradually materialize, indicating a potential new active cycle[2] - Caution is advised due to ongoing external disturbances, including geopolitical tensions and tariff negotiations, which may lead to market fluctuations[2] - Focus should be on near-term new stocks that have undergone sufficient adjustment and offer relatively high cost-performance ratios, particularly those benefiting from hot themes or policy expectations[3] Group 3: Upcoming New Stocks - This week, five new stocks are set to complete subscriptions, including one from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and two from the Growth Enterprise Market[7] - One stock, Guqi Down Material, is expected to start pricing inquiries, being a significant supplier of duck down and goose down materials[8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [37] Core Views - The company, Guqi Down Material, focuses on the research, production, and sales of high-specification down products, primarily goose and duck down, used in clothing and bedding [29][7] - The company has established a strong customer base, including leading brands in the down clothing and bedding sectors, and has been recognized as a key player in the domestic down processing industry [30][29] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in military applications for down products, as well as the overall growth in the down clothing and bedding markets due to rising consumer income and preferences [31][27] Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved revenues of 667.2 million yuan, 830.4 million yuan, and 966.7 million yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 11.99%, 24.46%, and 16.42% [4][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 97 million yuan, 121.8 million yuan, and 168.2 million yuan for the same years, with year-over-year growth rates of 26.30%, 25.53%, and 38.11% [4][8] - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenues of 193 million yuan, an increase of 18.53% year-over-year [8] Industry Situation - The down products market is large and mature, with a significant number of well-known enterprises ensuring stable demand growth [17] - The domestic down clothing market has a high concentration of brands, with a market potential driven by consumption upgrades and a growing middle class [18][23] - The down bedding market has substantial growth potential, with low current penetration rates compared to developed countries [27] Company Highlights - The company is a leader in the down materials sector in China, focusing on the mid-to-high-end market and maintaining a strong customer base [29][30] - The company has expanded its product applications to military needs, which is expected to provide new growth opportunities [31] - The company has received various accolades, including recognition as an excellent enterprise in the down industry [7][29] Fundraising Project Investment - The company plans to invest in two projects through its IPO, including a functional down manufacturing project and an upgrade of its technology and R&D center [32][33] - The total investment for these projects is approximately 50.1 million yuan [32] Peer Comparison - In comparison to similar companies, Guqi Down Material's revenue for 2024 is projected at 966.7 million yuan, with a net profit of 168.2 million yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [35][34] - The average revenue of comparable companies is 2.728 billion yuan, with an average PE-TTM of 22.20X, while Guqi's gross margin is positioned in the mid-to-high range among peers [34][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance has significantly improved due to the rising prices of refrigerants, leading to a notable increase in revenue and profit margins [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of 24.462 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%, and a net profit of 1.960 billion yuan, up 107.69% year-on-year [4] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 5.800 billion yuan, a 6.05% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 808 million yuan, reflecting a 160.64% year-on-year growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 17.50%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a gross margin of 28.42%, up 13.67 percentage points year-on-year and 9.42 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 29.522 billion yuan, 32.238 billion yuan, and 35.575 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 20.7%, 9.2%, and 10.4% respectively [6] Market Dynamics - The company benefits from a favorable supply-demand balance in the refrigerant market, with significant price increases for second and third-generation refrigerants due to production quotas and improved downstream demand [4][5] - The average prices for refrigerants such as R22 and R32 have increased by 38.46% and 48.48% year-on-year respectively as of May 7, 2025 [5] Competitive Position - The company has a leading position in the fluorochemical industry, with substantial production quotas for refrigerants, holding 26.10% of the national HCFC-22 production quota and 39.6% of the HFCs production quota [5] - The acquisition of Feiyuan Chemical has enhanced the company's production capacity and product offerings, solidifying its market leadership [5] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the upward trend in refrigerant prices and strong market demand, with a forecasted net profit of 4.069 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 107.6% year-on-year increase [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that a series of financial policies are expected to support market stability and economic growth, with a focus on monetary easing and technological innovation [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has introduced 10 policy measures aimed at increasing long-term liquidity, lowering financing costs, and stabilizing the real estate market, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan [1] - The report highlights that the financial regulatory authority will implement 8 policies to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, including accelerating the introduction of financing systems compatible with new real estate development models [1][2] Group 2 - Short-term trends indicate that A-shares may experience a strong oscillation, supported by policies that could enhance economic growth and corporate profit expectations, such as lower interest rates and support for real estate financing [2][3] - The report suggests that the policies will lead to a significant short-term increase in liquidity, which may attract capital inflows into the stock market, thereby enhancing market risk appetite [2] - The mid-term outlook indicates a solidification of a slow bull market logic for A-shares, as the policies are expected to improve credit conditions and corporate profitability [2] Group 3 - The report identifies that the policy package may create short-term investment opportunities in technology, core assets, and large financial sectors, driven by a focus on technological innovation and liquidity support [3][5] - It notes that the policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market could also benefit core assets in finance, consumption, and healthcare sectors [5]

2025 年 05 月 04 日 策略类●证券研究报告 节后开启震荡反弹，五月震荡偏强 定期报告 投资要点 假期期间担忧的风险基本未发生，节后可能开启震荡反弹。（1）假期期间海外风 险事件并未发生，国内政策继续偏积极。一是假期期间中国商务部表示中方正在对 美方主动要求谈判进行评估，中美谈判可能性增大。二是假期期间国内积极的政策 进一步落地实施。（2）假期期间海外流动性宽松预期未有变化。一是美国 4 月份 制造业 PMI、新增非农就业人数环比、平均时薪同比增速等均有所回落；二是美联 储继续降息概率仍较大，美元维持低位。（3）假期期间国内出行和消费数据火爆。 复盘历史，影响 5 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、基本面和流动性。 （1）5 月 A 股表现多偏弱：2010 年以来的 15 年中上证综指仅有 6 次 5 月上涨。 （2）影响 5 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、基本面和流动性。一是政 政策宽松或外部事件积极则上证综指 5 月可能上涨，如 2014 年"新国九条"发布、 2015 年央行调降 LPR、2021 "双碳"目标确立等；否则 A 股表现可能偏弱，如 2010、2011 年欧债 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to continue its development with a good order backlog and new products contributing to revenue growth, particularly in the context of the growing electric vehicle (EV) market [2][5] - The company has established projects with major automotive manufacturers such as Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, Tesla, BYD, General Motors, Audi, Ford, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, SAIC, Great Wall, Chery, and Geely for the development of EV components [2][5] - The company reported a revenue of 1.562 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.44%, and a net profit of 146 million yuan, up 16.64% year-on-year [4][7] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 390 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.98%, and a net profit of 30 million yuan, up 2.53% year-on-year [4][7] - The company's revenue growth in 2024 was primarily driven by the demand for axle and steering knuckle products, with significant revenue growth rates of 62.46% and 55.06% respectively [4][7] - The gross margin for 2024 was 20.02%, down 1.24 percentage points from 2023, mainly due to a 43.08% increase in raw material costs [4][7] Future Outlook - The company is expanding its product applications into new areas such as robotics and aerospace, establishing a new subsidiary to enhance its R&D capabilities in these fields [6][7] - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 1.939 billion yuan, 2.456 billion yuan, and 2.925 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24.1%, 26.7%, and 19.1% [8][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.16 yuan, 1.54 yuan, and 1.87 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21.5x, 16.2x, and 13.3x [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company demonstrates both profit resilience and growth potential, with a favorable outlook for the wind power industry in 2025 [1] - The company is a leader in the wind power casting sector, with expected increases in market share as production capacity gradually releases [6] - The company has established a solid market position in key sectors such as wind power and shipbuilding through continuous technological innovation [6] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 624 million yuan, up 29.55% year-on-year [6] - The company forecasts revenues of 6.006 billion yuan, 6.911 billion yuan, and 7.736 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 710 million yuan, 817 million yuan, and 974 million yuan [8][9] - The gross margin for 2024 was 17.31%, with a projected increase to 20.2% in 2025 [6][8] Production and Capacity Expansion - The company reported a production and sales volume of 491,900 tons and 490,400 tons of castings in 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 9.49% and 9.58% respectively [6] - As of December 31, 2024, the company has established a casting capacity of 700,000 tons and precision processing capacity of 420,000 tons [6] Market and Policy Environment - The company is benefiting from policy incentives aimed at accelerating the construction of renewable energy bases, particularly in the northwest region of China [6] - The company has implemented supporting production capacity for wind power projects in the northwest, enhancing its competitive edge in the casting industry [6] Research and Development - The company invested 227 million yuan in R&D in 2024, holding 174 authorized patents, including 66 invention patents [6] - The company has successfully applied ductile iron technology to large megawatt wind turbine shaft products, achieving performance levels comparable to forged shafts [6] Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.69 yuan, 0.79 yuan, and 0.95 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 15, and 13 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth, driven by its "Big IP + Technology" strategy, which is accelerating its implementation [1] - The marketing business is ensuring overall revenue growth, with promotional services becoming a significant growth driver [7] - The company is expanding its IP resource reserves and developing IP cultural products, forming a matrix of "National Trend" and "International" IP [7] - The company has successfully obtained licensing for major events, which is expected to contribute additional profits in 2025 [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,692 million in 2023 to 3,883 million by 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 10.8% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from a loss of 184 million in 2024 to a profit of 167 million by 2027 [3] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 15.5% in 2023 to 17.4% in 2027 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.09 in 2023 to 0.64 in 2027 [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 160.1 in 2023 to 22.6 in 2027, indicating improved valuation [3] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of April 30, 2025, was 14.46 [4] - The total market capitalization is approximately 3,788.23 million [4] - The company has experienced a relative return of 1.5% over the past month [6]

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, the overall equity position of actively managed equity funds increased to 85.47%, up by 0.40 percentage points from Q4 2024 [4][5][12] - The main sectors with increased holdings included financial real estate, consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical industries, with financial real estate seeing the largest increase from 3.7% to 4.3% [9][12] - Actively managed equity funds increased their positions in the automotive and chemical sectors while reducing exposure to military, environmental protection, and transportation sectors [12][19] Group 2 - The top five sectors for actively managed equity funds in Q1 2025 were electronics (20.3%), pharmaceuticals (10.4%), basic chemicals (8.9%), public utilities (7.2%), and communications (6.9%) [12][19] - The top five sectors with the largest increases in holdings were automotive (+0.8%), basic chemicals (+0.6%), real estate (+0.3%), construction materials (+0.2%), and public utilities (+0.2%) [12][19] - The top five sectors with the largest decreases in holdings were military defense (-0.9%), environmental protection (-0.6%), transportation (-0.6%), computers (-0.3%), and steel (-0.2%) [12][19] Group 3 - In Q1 2025, large-scale actively managed equity funds increased their positions in non-ferrous metals and home appliances while reducing exposure to non-bank financials and food and beverage sectors [19][24] - The top five sectors for large-scale actively managed equity funds were electronics (19.0%), food and beverage (16.5%), power equipment (11.3%), non-bank financials (9.7%), and pharmaceuticals (9.5%) [19][24] - The top five sectors with the largest increases in holdings were non-ferrous metals (+3.0%), home appliances (+2.3%), power equipment (+1.6%), machinery (+0.9%), and automotive (+0.7%) [19][24] Group 4 - The concentration of holdings in the top 20 stocks increased significantly in Q1 2025, with the top 5 holdings rising to 18.5%, top 10 to 27.7%, and top 100 to 65.9% [23][29] - The top 20 stocks with the largest increases in holdings were primarily in the electronics, automotive, and communications sectors [25][31] - The top three stocks with the largest increases in holdings were BYD, Zijin Mining, and Chipone Technology [25][31] Group 5 - Expectations for Q2 2025 indicate that holdings in technology, consumer, and certain cyclical sectors may remain high due to government policies promoting AI and consumption [32][33] - The agricultural and food and beverage sectors are expected to see increased holdings due to low current positions and improving consumption potential [32][33] - The construction materials sector is anticipated to benefit from ongoing real estate policies and increased demand [32][33]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the secondary trading performance of new stocks has been flat, but there are signs that the first-day trading sentiment may be accelerating towards a bottom [1][12][22] - The average increase of new stocks listed in 2024 is approximately 0.6%, with about 62.2% of new stocks showing positive returns [12][28] - The report suggests that the cautious trading atmosphere in the secondary market is likely to continue for a short period, while the first-day trading sentiment has significantly cooled down, reaching a low point not seen since September 2024 [2][12][19] Group 2 - The report highlights that there were no new stocks available for online subscription last week, and the average first-day increase of newly listed stocks was below 100%, indicating a decline in enthusiasm for new stock trading [4][25][26] - The average issuance price-earnings ratio for new stocks in April has decreased, with the average for the ChiNext board at 14.4X, down from 21.1X in March [13][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring specific sectors that may benefit from policy expectations or changes in the external environment, particularly in industries like robotics and AI [2][12][41] Group 3 - The report notes that there are no new stocks scheduled for listing this week, but two new stocks will open for subscription, and three will begin the inquiry process [3][36][37] - The report recommends focusing on near-term new stocks that are scarce and have stable performance expectations, especially those that may benefit from policy catalysts [2][41][42] - The report identifies specific stocks to watch, including Suzhou Tianmai, Top Cloud Agriculture, and others, suggesting that investors remain flexible and observant for potential opportunities [8][41][42]