2025 年 03 月 02 日 策略类●证券研究报告 活跃周期后段震荡分化加剧，两会时间局部热度预计依然可期 新股专题 投资要点 新股周观点：上周新股次新板块震荡分化有所加剧，但从资金面和局部板块热度， 可能当前依然处于活跃周期进程中。但随着人气产业链获利累积，外部不利冲击扰 动加剧、而外部利好催化又逐渐钝化，活跃周期预计步入后段，震荡反复和轮动或 更为频繁和短促。本周进入两会时间，建议灵活博弈局部政策催化预期同时，适度 谨慎。 （1）新股板块上周出现震荡分化；假设以 2024 年以来上市的新股次新板块比较 来看，上周板块平均涨幅约-2.0%，实现正收益占比约 36.4%。 （2）虽然以 AI+为代表的部分前期表现极为活跃的新股次新标的出现震荡回撤， 但资金博弈热度上周并未退潮、局部板块活跃热度则依然维持在颇高位置。我们倾 向于认为，可能本轮新股活跃周期还是在进行中，只是随着板块获利、尤其是人气 板块获利已经颇高，本轮活跃周期或不可避免步入后段，板块对于外部不利冲击的 扰动表现地或更为剧烈。 （3）短期来看，本周进入两会时间，政策催化预期可能将逐渐升温，此前围绕着 重大科技产业事件持续活跃的主题产业链或将出 ...

2025 年 03 月 2 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 新亚电缆（001382.SZ） 新股覆盖研究 投资要点 | 交易数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 总股本（百万股） | 350.00 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | | 12 个月价格区间 | / | | 分析师 | 李蕙 | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910519100001 | | | lihui1@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 戴筝筝 | | | daizhengzheng@huajinsc.cn | 相关报告 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（弘景光 电）-2025 年第 12 期-总第 538 期 2025.2.23 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（汉朔科 技）-2025 年第 11 期-总第 537 期 2025.2.22 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（永杰新 材）-2025 年第 10 期-总第 536 期 2025.2.21 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（常友科 技）-2025 年第 9 期-总第 535 期 2025.2.1 ...

2025 年 03 月 02 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 PMI 节后反弹，投资好于消费 事件点评 PMI 点评（2025.2） 投资要点 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 LPR 四度持平，十债利率升至 1.7%，释放 何种信号？——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 95 期） 2025.2.21 信贷创纪录"开门红"，年初集中还是全年趋 高？——金融数据速评（2025.1）2025.2.14 内外形势有何变化，货币如何调整优化？— —《货币政策执行报告》（2024Q4）解读·周 报（第 94 期） 2025.2.14 核心通胀不降反升，美联储还能降息吗？— —美国 CPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.13 油价回升服务走高，CPI 稍好于预期—— CPI、PPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.9 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 节后 PMI 如期明显反弹，投资回暖快于消费。由于 1 月跌幅较深，1 ...

2025 年 02 月 28 日 策略类●证券研究报告 春季行情未完，进入后半段 定期报告 投资要点 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用，政策超预期变化，经济修复不及预期。 | 分析师 | 邓利军 | | --- | --- | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 | | | denglijun@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 张欣诺 | | | zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 苏雪儿 | | | suxueer@huajinsc.cn | 相关报告 人气产业链不断迎来新催化，新股次新板块 交 投 热 度 不 减 - 华 金 证 券 新 股 周 报 2025.2.23 春季行情进行中，风格不变 2025.2.23 板块表现略有分化但局部资金热度不减，新 股活跃周期预计未改-华金证券新股周报 2025.2.16 春季行情未完，科技占优延续 2025.2.16 节后风险偏好选择向上，板块新一轮活跃周 期或已开启-华金证券新股周报 2025.2.9 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...

2025 年 02 月 28 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 恒鑫生活（301501.SZ） 新股覆盖研究 投资要点 下周一（3 月 3 日）有一家创业板上市公司"恒鑫生活"询价。 | 交易数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | 102.00 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | | | 12 个月价格区间 | | / | | 分析师 | | 李蕙 | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910519100001 | | | | lihui1@huajinsc.cn | | | 报告联系人 | | 戴筝筝 | | | daizhengzheng@huajinsc.cn | | 相关报告 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（弘景光 电）-2025 年第 12 期-总第 538 期 2025.2.23 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（汉朔科 技）-2025 年第 11 期-总第 537 期 2025.2.22 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（永杰新 材）-2025 年第 10 期-总第 536 期 20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [2][34]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer of photomasks in China, with significant growth potential driven by domestic substitution trends and ongoing technological advancements [5][26]. - The company reported a revenue of approximately 916 million yuan in 2023, with 731 million yuan from the flat panel display sector and 144 million yuan from the semiconductor sector, indicating a strong market presence [5][26]. - The company is investing 3.5 billion yuan in new production facilities to enhance its capacity for high-precision photomasks and high-end semiconductor photomasks, which is expected to significantly boost its production capabilities and overall revenue [5][27][28]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of photomasks, being one of the earliest and largest manufacturers in China [5][17]. - Its products are critical tools in the manufacturing processes of flat panel displays, semiconductor chips, touch screens, and circuit boards [5][24]. Market Position - The company ranks fifth globally in sales of flat panel display photomasks as of 2023, showcasing its competitive position in the market [17][20]. - The domestic photomask market is expected to grow, with the company poised to capture a larger share due to its established technology and production capabilities [5][26]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1.16 billion yuan, 1.43 billion yuan, and 1.77 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.4%, 23.6%, and 23.4% [6][28]. - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 192 million yuan, 251 million yuan, and 336 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 41.9 to 24.0 [6][28]. Technological Advancements - The company has achieved mass production of high-precision photomasks for 8.6 generation TFT and 6 generation AMOLED/LTPS, and is advancing in the development of photomasks for 130nm-65nm processes [5][22][21]. - The ongoing development of new technologies and products is expected to fill gaps in the high-end photomask market, particularly in the AMOLED and MicroLED sectors [21][28]. Customer Base - The company serves a diverse range of clients in the flat panel display and semiconductor industries, including major players like BOE, Visionox, and Sanan Optoelectronics [24][25].

Group 1 - The spring market is ongoing and may be entering its later stages, with high-frequency data indicating continued recovery in the fundamentals, such as a rebound in real estate sales and an increase in construction rates post-holiday [3][5][11] - The liquidity environment shows potential for continued inflows into the A-share market, with historical data from 2020 to 2024 indicating significant daily inflows from foreign capital, financing, and newly issued funds [5][7][8] - Risk appetite indicators are elevated, but supportive policies and industry trends may continue to bolster risk preferences, with current sentiment metrics showing high turnover rates and a significant proportion of stocks above their 200-day moving averages [8][9][11] Group 2 - The industry configuration suggests a focus on growth sectors that may experience a rebound, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, as historical trends indicate that these sectors perform well during liquidity expansion periods [16][17] - In the later stages of the spring market, sectors that previously lagged may outperform, with historical data showing that industries ranked in the bottom five during early stages often see significant improvements in subsequent periods [19][21] - Short-term attention should be on sectors with high valuation attractiveness, such as large financials, consumption, and non-TMT growth industries, as they have shown potential for recovery and growth [24][27]

Monetary Policy Insights - The LPR has remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, with the 1Y and 5Y rates at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively, indicating delayed interest rate cuts[1] - The 1Y and 10Y government bond yields increased by 10.0 basis points and 6.5 basis points, reaching 1.48% and 1.72% respectively, reflecting a tightening monetary environment[1] - The recent monetary policy shift towards "moderate easing" contrasts with the tightening observed in the money market, limiting the scope for further easing[1] Currency and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The US dollar index has decreased by 3.6% from its peak of 109.96 on January 13 to 106.37 on February 20, while the CNY/USD exchange rate only appreciated by 1.0% from 7.33 to 7.26[1] - The importance of stabilizing the exchange rate has increased, necessitating a reduction in the China-US interest rate differential to mitigate currency depreciation pressures[1] Trade and Tariff Impacts - The US has implemented tariffs, including a 10% increase on imports from China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, which could adversely affect China's exports to the US[1] - Potential further tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals may exacerbate the impact on China's export prices and volumes, leading to a prolonged depreciation pressure on the CNY[1] Economic Indicators - Domestic auto sales have rebounded, with retail and wholesale sales increasing by 11% and 65% respectively, indicating a recovery trend post-Spring Festival[1] - The core CPI in Japan has slightly increased to 2.5%, providing short-term support for the yen[1] Risk Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies poses a risk of increased depreciation pressure on the CNY and a faster upward adjustment of the yield curve[1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [30] Core Insights - The company, Hongjing Optoelectronics, specializes in optical lenses and camera modules, with significant applications in various sectors including automotive, smart home, and action cameras. The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of 4.46 billion CNY, 7.73 billion CNY, and 10.92 billion CNY for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 77.38%, 73.13%, and 41.25% [2][4][7] - The company has established a deep partnership with leading downstream enterprises, particularly with Yingshi Innovation, becoming a key supplier for their next-generation panoramic cameras. This collaboration is expected to drive sustained revenue growth [19][20] - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in the automotive sector, with significant contracts and partnerships with major automotive brands, which are anticipated to contribute to future growth [20][21] Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved revenues of 4.46 billion CNY in 2022, 7.73 billion CNY in 2023, and is projected to reach 10.92 billion CNY in 2024, with net profits of 0.56 billion CNY, 1.16 billion CNY, and 1.65 billion CNY respectively, indicating substantial growth in profitability [4][7][19] Industry Situation - The optical lens market is expected to grow significantly, driven by advancements in technology and increasing applications in smart vehicles and smart home devices. The global optical lens market is projected to grow from 181.60 billion CNY in 2015 to 682.80 billion CNY in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 18% [14][15][16] Company Highlights - The company has a strong foothold in the panoramic and action camera lens market, with a market share exceeding 25% globally. It has also secured a significant revenue stream from Yingshi Innovation, accounting for nearly 47% of its total revenue in the first half of 2024 [19][20] - The company is expanding its presence in the automotive sector, having established partnerships with several Tier 1 suppliers and automotive brands, which is expected to enhance its growth trajectory [20][21] - The core team, led by founder Zhao Zhiping, possesses extensive experience in optical technology, positioning the company well for future innovations in AR/VR and medical optics [21][22] Fundraising Projects - The company plans to invest in two main projects through its IPO, focusing on expanding production capacity for optical lenses and establishing a research and development center [24][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [26]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Hanshuo Technology, is a leader in the electronic price tag industry in China and ranks among the top three globally. The electronic price tags offer advantages over traditional paper labels, such as real-time pricing and quick positioning, which benefit the retail sector by reducing costs and increasing efficiency. The global penetration rate of electronic price tags is currently only 15%, indicating significant growth potential [17][18]. - The company has shown impressive revenue growth, with projected revenues of 2.862 billion yuan, 3.775 billion yuan, and 4.486 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 77.44%, 31.91%, and 18.84%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 208 million yuan, 678 million yuan, and 710 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 3246.17%, 226.20%, and 4.81% [8][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hanshuo Technology focuses on the digitalization of retail stores, building a business system centered around electronic price tag systems and SaaS cloud platform services. The company has developed a high-density low-power wireless communication protocol, enhancing its competitive edge in communication efficiency and stability [7][17]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of 2.862 billion yuan in 2022, 3.775 billion yuan in 2023, and is projected to reach 4.486 billion yuan in 2024, with corresponding net profits of 208 million yuan, 678 million yuan, and 710 million yuan [5][8]. Industry Situation - The electronic price tag market is expected to grow significantly, with a global market size projected to reach 34.9 billion yuan by 2028, driven by increasing digitalization in retail and the need for cost-effective solutions [14][16]. Company Highlights - The company has launched over 40 models of electronic price tags to meet diverse application needs and has developed a SaaS cloud deployment architecture to provide comprehensive services to retailers [18][19]. Comparison with Peers - Compared to similar companies, Hanshuo Technology's revenue and gross margin are below the industry average, with peer companies averaging revenues of 29.035 billion yuan and a gross margin of 46.30% [22][23].