证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源/行业深度报告 领先大市（维持） 2026年电新行业年度策略: 反内卷与科技引领，触底反弹启新篇 分析师：贺朝晖 S0910525030003 周涛 S0910523050001 2025年12月8日 本报告仅供华金证券客户中的专业投资者参考 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 目录 1、行业周期回顾 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 2 2、核聚变：政策支持+资本开支驱动，产业进入加速期 3、AIDC电源：算力需求+SST技术革命引领新趋势 4、锂电：需求增长+固态技术迭代，景气周期开启 5、储能：市场化交易提升需求，有望迎来量价齐升 6、风电：量利持续修复， "两海"主线明确 7、投资建议：细分beta+科技alpha机遇共振 8、风险提示 复盘2025：反内卷加速行业触底反弹 -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 2010年 2011年 2012年 2013年 2014年 2015年 2016年 2017年 2018年 2019年 2020年 2021年 202 年 2023年 2024年 2025年 2026年 2027年 光 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it is implied that the company is positioned favorably for growth based on projected revenue and profit increases in the coming years [39]. Core Insights - The company, Xihua Technology (603248.SH), primarily engages in the research, manufacturing, and sales of specialized components for large high-end equipment, focusing on wind turbine gearbox components and injection molding machine parts [8][30]. - The company has shown a stable revenue structure, with projected revenues for 2025 expected to grow significantly compared to previous years, indicating a strong market position and customer relationships [11][36]. Summary by Relevant Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved operating revenues of 942 million yuan, 908 million yuan, and 955 million yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 7.29%, -3.62%, and 5.19% [11][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years was 183 million yuan, 177 million yuan, and 142 million yuan, with year-over-year changes of -2.14%, -3.71%, and -19.65% [11][5]. - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported revenues of 951 million yuan, a 35.35% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [11]. Industry Situation - The wind turbine gearbox industry is experiencing growth, with global wind power generation capacity expected to reach 117 GW in 2024, marking a compound annual growth rate of 7.69% from 2009 to 2024 [19][20]. - The global market for wind turbine gearboxes is projected to grow from 41.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 61.6 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 8.17% [22]. Company Highlights - Xihua Technology has established itself as a core supplier in the wind turbine gearbox and injection molding machine sectors, with a focus on deepening relationships with leading downstream enterprises [30][31]. - The company has developed a leading advantage in large megawatt products, successfully launching a 22 MW wind turbine gearbox component and increasing the sales proportion of products over 10 MW [31]. - The company plans to invest in two projects through its IPO, including a wind power core equipment industrialization project and a research center construction project, which are expected to enhance production capacity and R&D capabilities [32][34]. Comparison with Peers - Compared to similar companies, Xihua Technology's revenue scale is below the industry average, but its sales gross margin is positioned in the mid-to-high range among peers [36]. - The average revenue for comparable companies in 2024 is projected at 2.674 billion yuan, with an average PE-TTM of 24.40X and a sales gross margin of 16% [36].

http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1/12 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2025 年 12 月 07 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 天溯计量（301449.SZ） 新股覆盖研究 投资要点 下周二（12 月 9 日）有一家创业板上市公司"天溯计量"询价。 | 交易数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 总股本（百万股） | 48.91 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | | 个月价格区间 12 | / | | 分析师 | 李蕙 | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910519100001 | | 报告联系人 | lihui1@huajinsc.cn 戴筝筝 | | | daizhengzheng@huajinsc.cn | 相关报告 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（优迅股 份）-2025 年 99 期-总第 625 期 2025.12.2 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（沐曦股 份）-2025 年 98 期-总第 624 期 2025.12.1 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（昂瑞微） -2025 年 97 期-总第 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate its development as Optimus continues to evolve and overcome various technological challenges. The report suggests focusing on companies that possess both brain and hardware iteration capabilities, such as XPeng Motors, Xiaomi Group, Seres, and Changan Automobile [4] - The demand for ball screws, a core component in humanoid robots, is anticipated to rise significantly as the robot industry develops. Domestic companies have made technological breakthroughs in high-end fields like rolling screws, transitioning from followers to competitors [2][27] - The report highlights that the market for humanoid robot screws is projected to grow rapidly, with estimates of 4.59 billion yuan in 2025, 82.19 billion yuan in 2030, and 715.95 billion yuan in 2035, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78.09% from 2025 to 2030 [23][24] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Demand and Industry Trends - The humanoid robot index increased by 1.41% from December 1 to December 5, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.13 percentage points [32] - Tesla's Optimus has shown significant improvements in running capabilities, demonstrating stable and fluid movements, which marks a departure from earlier robotic models [2][9][10] Key Companies and Market Performance - Several automotive parts companies are entering the screw market, leveraging their existing technologies and supply chains to capitalize on the growing demand for humanoid robots [27][28] - Key players in the screw market include Wuzhou Xinchun, Best, and Beite Technology, among others, which are transitioning from traditional automotive components to intelligent drive systems [29] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring companies with capabilities in humanoid robot components, such as Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, and Silver Wheel Holdings, as well as energy suppliers like Green Harmonics and Jiangsu Leili [4]

Group 1 - The new stock and newly listed sector has returned to a volatile tug-of-war, suggesting a need for patience and flexibility during the adjustment phase [1][11] - The average increase of newly listed stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets since 2024 is approximately -0.6%, with about 44.2% of new stocks showing positive returns [1][25] - The recent surge in the market capitalization of newly listed stocks, reaching over 100 billion, has attracted new funds but may also divert attention from other new stocks [2][11] Group 2 - The current secondary cycle indicators for the new stock sector are still slowly converging, with local active directions frequently switching and lacking a consensus on main lines [2][11] - The technology sector, particularly in areas like AI and robotics, remains a focal point for long-term capital, with an emphasis on identifying new hotspots within these themes [3][11] - The upcoming new stocks include Baiao Saitu and others, with a focus on companies that are either unprofitable or just becoming profitable [4][31] Group 3 - Last week, two new stocks were listed, both from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which are unprofitable at the time of listing [4][20] - The average first-day increase for newly listed stocks last week was approximately 350%, indicating a significant recovery in trading sentiment compared to previous weeks [4][23] - The average first-day closing price-to-earnings ratio for newly listed stocks in December has risen to 102.8, up from 63.1 in the previous month [14][15] Group 4 - The report suggests monitoring specific stocks that have shown resilience and potential for growth, including Han Shuo Technology and Hongjing Optoelectronics, among others [39] - For mid-term investments, stocks like Na Rui Radar and Jun Ding Da are recommended for potential investment opportunities [39]

Core Views - The report suggests that 2026 may witness a structural recovery in earnings, leading to a slow bull market in A-shares, driven by technology and cyclical sectors, despite high valuations [5][17] - The main theme for 2026 is expected to be a continuation of loose liquidity and a structural recovery in earnings, with potential for strong performance in technology and cyclical industries [6][37] Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates, maintaining a loose liquidity environment domestically [19][24] - Exports are anticipated to face high base pressure but may still show resilience, particularly in high-tech products and emerging markets [26][27] - Infrastructure investment growth is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by proactive fiscal policies and increased issuance of special bonds [28] - Real estate investment growth is likely to remain weak, although policies may ease, leading to a gradual stabilization in housing prices and sales [30] - Manufacturing investment growth is projected to stabilize and recover, driven by policies promoting new productive forces and equipment upgrades [32] Industry Allocation - The report recommends focusing on technology growth and cyclical growth as the main allocation themes for 2026, with specific attention to sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), electric new energy, machinery, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, military industry, and non-bank financials [7] - Large-cap and small-cap stocks are expected to perform relatively well, with a tilt towards cyclical styles [7] Earnings Recovery - Earnings in the technology and cyclical sectors are expected to continue rising, contributing positively to overall A-share performance [37][39] - The report highlights that fiscal policy support may enhance corporate earnings growth, similar to past instances of fiscal stimulus [39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that AI is driving advanced packaging demand, with significant growth in storage-related businesses [2][4] - The semiconductor packaging sector experienced a slight decline in gross margin in Q3 2025, but year-on-year comparisons show growth [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of advanced packaging technologies in enhancing chip performance and integration, particularly with the ongoing development of Chiplet packaging concepts [4][5] Summary by Sections Overview - In Q3 2025, the semiconductor packaging sector's gross margin slightly decreased, with a gross margin of 21.09%, which is higher than the average of 15.79% for leading packaging companies [11][12] OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) - AI is significantly boosting demand for advanced packaging, with notable growth in the storage sector [17] - Major companies like ASE achieved revenues of 22.63 billion RMB in Q3 2025, reflecting an 8.34% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 16.90% year-on-year increase [18][19] - Advanced packaging services are expected to continue driving growth, particularly in AI-related applications [19][20] Testing - AI-related business growth is notable, with companies like Jingyuan Electronics reporting a revenue increase of 31.99% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [5][41] - Wei Ce Technology's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 10.83 billion RMB, a 46.22% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand in computing and automotive electronics [5][41] Equipment - The report indicates that AI growth is leading to a continuous increase in orders, with companies like Besi reporting a 36.5% quarter-on-quarter increase in new orders [5][41] - ASMPT's revenue in Q3 2025 was 33.13 billion RMB, a 7.6% quarter-on-quarter increase, driven by growth in SMT business [5][41] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from AI-driven demand, including packaging companies like ASE, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Changdian Technology, as well as testing companies like Jingyuan Electronics and Wei Ce Technology [5][41]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [33]. Core Insights - The company has made significant breakthroughs in next-generation 25G PON technology, achieving mass production of integrated transceiver chips and is expected to enter mass production of 50G PON solutions by 2026 [1][25]. - The company is a major supplier in the global optical communication chip market, particularly in the 10Gbps and below segment, and is rapidly expanding its presence in the 25G and above market [24][27]. - The company has a comprehensive product range covering from single-channel 155Mbps to multi-channel 800Gbps optical communication chips, with a strong focus on high-speed optical communication technology [24][28]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 339.1 million yuan in 2022, 313.1 million yuan in 2023, and is projected to achieve 410.6 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year growth of -7.65% in 2023 and 31.11% in 2024 [5][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 81.4 million yuan in 2022, 72.1 million yuan in 2023, and is expected to be 77.9 million yuan in 2024, with year-over-year changes of -11.44% and 8.02% respectively [5][9]. - For 2025, the company anticipates revenue growth of 15.70% to 20.57%, with net profit growth of 18.15% to 25.86% [9][30]. Industry Overview - The optical communication chip industry is positioned as a high-tech segment within the semiconductor integrated circuit field, with significant investment and longer R&D cycles compared to other components [18][19]. - The global market for optical communication chips is expected to grow significantly, driven by advancements in AI, data centers, and 5G technology, with the telecom side market projected to reach 1.85 billion USD by 2024 and the data center side market expected to reach 2.09 billion USD [22][23]. Company Highlights - The company has been recognized as a leading supplier in the optical communication chip sector, particularly in the 10Gbps and below market, and is rapidly increasing its market share in the 25G and above segment [24][27]. - The company has participated in several national-level research projects and has received multiple national qualifications, indicating its strong position in the industry [8][24]. - The company plans to invest in three key projects through its IPO, focusing on next-generation access networks, automotive chips, and high-speed optical communication chips [28][29]. Peer Comparison - In comparison to similar companies, the average revenue for peers in 2024 is projected at 701 million yuan, with an average PS-TTM of 27.70X and a gross profit margin of 35.61%. The company’s revenue is below the peer average, but its gross profit margin is in the mid-to-high range [30][31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [3][10] Core Views - The nuclear power sector is experiencing a significant upturn, with the entire industry chain expected to benefit continuously. Recent project initiations, such as the Shandong Zhaoyuan Nuclear Power Project and the Zhejiang San'ao Nuclear Power Project, mark the commencement of major construction efforts [1] - The listing of China Uranium Corporation is anticipated to enhance the domestic uranium supply capacity and resource security, filling a gap in the capital market for the uranium industry [6] - China's nuclear power capacity continues to grow, with a total of 59 operational reactors and 53 under construction, indicating a strong recovery in the global nuclear market and vast overseas opportunities [7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The nuclear power sector has seen a 23.3% year-on-year increase in investment completion, amounting to 990.9 billion yuan from January to September 2025 [6] - The approval of new nuclear power units has been consistent, with over 10 units approved annually since 2022, contributing to a total investment exceeding 200 billion yuan for the newly approved units in 2025 [6] Market Dynamics - The natural uranium market is tightening, with expectations of a gradual price increase. China Uranium Corporation holds significant mining rights and advanced extraction technologies, positioning it well for future growth [6][9] - The global nuclear power landscape is expanding, with China's nuclear generation capacity still below that of other major economies, indicating room for growth [7] Investment Recommendations - For equipment manufacturers in the nuclear power sector, companies like China Nuclear Technology and Dongfang Electric are recommended due to expected high growth in equipment orders [9] - In the nuclear operation and construction segment, firms such as China National Nuclear Corporation and China General Nuclear Power Group are highlighted for their long-term growth potential [9] - The fourth-generation reactors and fusion energy projects are also recommended for investment, with companies like Hezhong Intelligent and Jiadian Co. being noted for their involvement in these areas [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected increase in stock price relative to the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [35]. Core Insights - The company, Nabichuan, focuses on the research, production, and sales of thermal management products for new energy vehicle power batteries, fuel vehicle power systems, and energy storage batteries. It has established a strong position in the domestic market for battery liquid cooling plates [9][27]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 1.03 billion yuan in 2022, 1.14 billion yuan in 2023, and 1.44 billion yuan in 2024, representing year-over-year growth rates of 98.37%, 10.21%, and 26.48% respectively [10][31]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings, including innovations in battery box integration and the development of energy storage battery thermal management systems, which are expected to drive future growth [28][29]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved operating revenues of 1.03 billion yuan in 2022, 1.14 billion yuan in 2023, and 1.44 billion yuan in 2024, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 98.37%, 10.21%, and 26.48% [10][31]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 113 million yuan in 2022, 98 million yuan in 2023, and 95 million yuan in 2024, with year-over-year changes of 134.65%, -13.29%, and -2.88% respectively [10][31]. Industry Situation - The automotive thermal management industry is divided into power system thermal management and comfort thermal management. The complexity and value of thermal management systems in new energy vehicles are significantly higher than in traditional fuel vehicles [18][20]. - The market for battery liquid cooling plates is expected to grow substantially, with a projected market size of 145 billion yuan globally by 2025, driven by the increasing demand for new energy vehicles [20][26]. Company Highlights - The company has a long-standing focus on the thermal management sector and is one of the earliest players in the new energy vehicle thermal management market. It has established partnerships with major manufacturers like CATL and SAIC Volkswagen [27][28]. - The company is expanding its product lines, including the development of integrated battery boxes and energy storage thermal management systems, which are expected to enhance its market position [28][29]. Fundraising Project Investment - The company plans to invest in a project to produce 3.6 million sets of water cooling plates annually, with an investment of approximately 57.94 million yuan [29][30].