2025 年 02 月 28 日 策略类●证券研究报告 春季行情未完，进入后半段 定期报告 投资要点 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用，政策超预期变化，经济修复不及预期。 | 分析师 | 邓利军 | | --- | --- | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 | | | denglijun@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 张欣诺 | | | zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 苏雪儿 | | | suxueer@huajinsc.cn | 相关报告 人气产业链不断迎来新催化，新股次新板块 交 投 热 度 不 减 - 华 金 证 券 新 股 周 报 2025.2.23 春季行情进行中，风格不变 2025.2.23 板块表现略有分化但局部资金热度不减，新 股活跃周期预计未改-华金证券新股周报 2025.2.16 春季行情未完，科技占优延续 2025.2.16 节后风险偏好选择向上，板块新一轮活跃周 期或已开启-华金证券新股周报 2025.2.9 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...

2025 年 02 月 28 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 恒鑫生活（301501.SZ） 新股覆盖研究 投资要点 下周一（3 月 3 日）有一家创业板上市公司"恒鑫生活"询价。 | 交易数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | 102.00 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | | | 12 个月价格区间 | | / | | 分析师 | | 李蕙 | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910519100001 | | | | lihui1@huajinsc.cn | | | 报告联系人 | | 戴筝筝 | | | daizhengzheng@huajinsc.cn | | 相关报告 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（弘景光 电）-2025 年第 12 期-总第 538 期 2025.2.23 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（汉朔科 技）-2025 年第 11 期-总第 537 期 2025.2.22 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（永杰新 材）-2025 年第 10 期-总第 536 期 20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [2][34]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer of photomasks in China, with significant growth potential driven by domestic substitution trends and ongoing technological advancements [5][26]. - The company reported a revenue of approximately 916 million yuan in 2023, with 731 million yuan from the flat panel display sector and 144 million yuan from the semiconductor sector, indicating a strong market presence [5][26]. - The company is investing 3.5 billion yuan in new production facilities to enhance its capacity for high-precision photomasks and high-end semiconductor photomasks, which is expected to significantly boost its production capabilities and overall revenue [5][27][28]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of photomasks, being one of the earliest and largest manufacturers in China [5][17]. - Its products are critical tools in the manufacturing processes of flat panel displays, semiconductor chips, touch screens, and circuit boards [5][24]. Market Position - The company ranks fifth globally in sales of flat panel display photomasks as of 2023, showcasing its competitive position in the market [17][20]. - The domestic photomask market is expected to grow, with the company poised to capture a larger share due to its established technology and production capabilities [5][26]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1.16 billion yuan, 1.43 billion yuan, and 1.77 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.4%, 23.6%, and 23.4% [6][28]. - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 192 million yuan, 251 million yuan, and 336 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 41.9 to 24.0 [6][28]. Technological Advancements - The company has achieved mass production of high-precision photomasks for 8.6 generation TFT and 6 generation AMOLED/LTPS, and is advancing in the development of photomasks for 130nm-65nm processes [5][22][21]. - The ongoing development of new technologies and products is expected to fill gaps in the high-end photomask market, particularly in the AMOLED and MicroLED sectors [21][28]. Customer Base - The company serves a diverse range of clients in the flat panel display and semiconductor industries, including major players like BOE, Visionox, and Sanan Optoelectronics [24][25].

Group 1 - The spring market is ongoing and may be entering its later stages, with high-frequency data indicating continued recovery in the fundamentals, such as a rebound in real estate sales and an increase in construction rates post-holiday [3][5][11] - The liquidity environment shows potential for continued inflows into the A-share market, with historical data from 2020 to 2024 indicating significant daily inflows from foreign capital, financing, and newly issued funds [5][7][8] - Risk appetite indicators are elevated, but supportive policies and industry trends may continue to bolster risk preferences, with current sentiment metrics showing high turnover rates and a significant proportion of stocks above their 200-day moving averages [8][9][11] Group 2 - The industry configuration suggests a focus on growth sectors that may experience a rebound, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, as historical trends indicate that these sectors perform well during liquidity expansion periods [16][17] - In the later stages of the spring market, sectors that previously lagged may outperform, with historical data showing that industries ranked in the bottom five during early stages often see significant improvements in subsequent periods [19][21] - Short-term attention should be on sectors with high valuation attractiveness, such as large financials, consumption, and non-TMT growth industries, as they have shown potential for recovery and growth [24][27]

Monetary Policy Insights - The LPR has remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, with the 1Y and 5Y rates at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively, indicating delayed interest rate cuts[1] - The 1Y and 10Y government bond yields increased by 10.0 basis points and 6.5 basis points, reaching 1.48% and 1.72% respectively, reflecting a tightening monetary environment[1] - The recent monetary policy shift towards "moderate easing" contrasts with the tightening observed in the money market, limiting the scope for further easing[1] Currency and Exchange Rate Dynamics - The US dollar index has decreased by 3.6% from its peak of 109.96 on January 13 to 106.37 on February 20, while the CNY/USD exchange rate only appreciated by 1.0% from 7.33 to 7.26[1] - The importance of stabilizing the exchange rate has increased, necessitating a reduction in the China-US interest rate differential to mitigate currency depreciation pressures[1] Trade and Tariff Impacts - The US has implemented tariffs, including a 10% increase on imports from China and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, which could adversely affect China's exports to the US[1] - Potential further tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals may exacerbate the impact on China's export prices and volumes, leading to a prolonged depreciation pressure on the CNY[1] Economic Indicators - Domestic auto sales have rebounded, with retail and wholesale sales increasing by 11% and 65% respectively, indicating a recovery trend post-Spring Festival[1] - The core CPI in Japan has slightly increased to 2.5%, providing short-term support for the yen[1] Risk Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies poses a risk of increased depreciation pressure on the CNY and a faster upward adjustment of the yield curve[1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [30] Core Insights - The company, Hongjing Optoelectronics, specializes in optical lenses and camera modules, with significant applications in various sectors including automotive, smart home, and action cameras. The company has shown strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of 4.46 billion CNY, 7.73 billion CNY, and 10.92 billion CNY for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 77.38%, 73.13%, and 41.25% [2][4][7] - The company has established a deep partnership with leading downstream enterprises, particularly with Yingshi Innovation, becoming a key supplier for their next-generation panoramic cameras. This collaboration is expected to drive sustained revenue growth [19][20] - The company is actively expanding its product offerings in the automotive sector, with significant contracts and partnerships with major automotive brands, which are anticipated to contribute to future growth [20][21] Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved revenues of 4.46 billion CNY in 2022, 7.73 billion CNY in 2023, and is projected to reach 10.92 billion CNY in 2024, with net profits of 0.56 billion CNY, 1.16 billion CNY, and 1.65 billion CNY respectively, indicating substantial growth in profitability [4][7][19] Industry Situation - The optical lens market is expected to grow significantly, driven by advancements in technology and increasing applications in smart vehicles and smart home devices. The global optical lens market is projected to grow from 181.60 billion CNY in 2015 to 682.80 billion CNY in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 18% [14][15][16] Company Highlights - The company has a strong foothold in the panoramic and action camera lens market, with a market share exceeding 25% globally. It has also secured a significant revenue stream from Yingshi Innovation, accounting for nearly 47% of its total revenue in the first half of 2024 [19][20] - The company is expanding its presence in the automotive sector, having established partnerships with several Tier 1 suppliers and automotive brands, which is expected to enhance its growth trajectory [20][21] - The core team, led by founder Zhao Zhiping, possesses extensive experience in optical technology, positioning the company well for future innovations in AR/VR and medical optics [21][22] Fundraising Projects - The company plans to invest in two main projects through its IPO, focusing on expanding production capacity for optical lenses and establishing a research and development center [24][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [26]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Hanshuo Technology, is a leader in the electronic price tag industry in China and ranks among the top three globally. The electronic price tags offer advantages over traditional paper labels, such as real-time pricing and quick positioning, which benefit the retail sector by reducing costs and increasing efficiency. The global penetration rate of electronic price tags is currently only 15%, indicating significant growth potential [17][18]. - The company has shown impressive revenue growth, with projected revenues of 2.862 billion yuan, 3.775 billion yuan, and 4.486 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 77.44%, 31.91%, and 18.84%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 208 million yuan, 678 million yuan, and 710 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 3246.17%, 226.20%, and 4.81% [8][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hanshuo Technology focuses on the digitalization of retail stores, building a business system centered around electronic price tag systems and SaaS cloud platform services. The company has developed a high-density low-power wireless communication protocol, enhancing its competitive edge in communication efficiency and stability [7][17]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenues of 2.862 billion yuan in 2022, 3.775 billion yuan in 2023, and is projected to reach 4.486 billion yuan in 2024, with corresponding net profits of 208 million yuan, 678 million yuan, and 710 million yuan [5][8]. Industry Situation - The electronic price tag market is expected to grow significantly, with a global market size projected to reach 34.9 billion yuan by 2028, driven by increasing digitalization in retail and the need for cost-effective solutions [14][16]. Company Highlights - The company has launched over 40 models of electronic price tags to meet diverse application needs and has developed a SaaS cloud deployment architecture to provide comprehensive services to retailers [18][19]. Comparison with Peers - Compared to similar companies, Hanshuo Technology's revenue and gross margin are below the industry average, with peer companies averaging revenues of 29.035 billion yuan and a gross margin of 46.30% [22][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but it is implied that the company is positioned favorably within its industry due to its leading market share and growth potential in the lithium battery sector [25]. Core Insights - The company, Yongjie New Materials (603271.SH), specializes in the research, production, and sales of aluminum plates and foils, primarily serving the lithium battery, automotive lightweighting, and electronic sectors [6][12]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 71.50 billion CNY in 2022, 65.04 billion CNY in 2023, and an expected 81.11 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 24.71% [7][21]. - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer of aluminum plates and foils for lithium batteries, benefiting from the increasing demand in the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors [17][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yongjie New Materials has over 20 years of experience in the aluminum plate and foil industry and has been recognized as one of the top ten aluminum plate manufacturers in China [6][18]. - The company exported products to over 30 countries and regions in 2023, with a total shipment volume of 320,700 tons [6]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 71.50 billion CNY in 2022, 65.04 billion CNY in 2023, and expects 81.11 billion CNY in 2024, with corresponding net profits of 3.54 billion CNY, 2.38 billion CNY, and 3.19 billion CNY [7][21]. - The revenue from lithium battery applications accounted for 42.05% of the total revenue in the first half of 2024 [7]. Industry Situation - The aluminum plate and foil industry is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increasing demand in sectors such as transportation, construction, and electronics, particularly due to the rise of electric vehicles [13][14]. - The total production of aluminum plates and foils in China increased from 7.25 million tons in 2010 to 18.60 million tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.5% [13][14]. Competitive Position - The company holds the largest market share in the lithium-ion battery aluminum alloy plate and foil sector in China from 2021 to 2023 [17]. - Compared to its peers, Yongjie New Materials has lower revenue and profit margins, with an average revenue of 154.18 billion CNY and a PE-TTM of 24.60X among comparable companies [21][22]. Future Prospects - The company is actively expanding into high-end materials, including anodized materials and liquid cooling management materials, which are expected to see significant market growth [18]. - The global liquid cooling market is projected to reach 85.8 billion CNY by 2027, providing substantial growth opportunities for the company [18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expected relative increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months compared to the relevant market index [26][28]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Changyou Technology, specializes in the research, production, and sales of polymer composite products and lightweight sandwich materials, primarily for the wind power sector [4][8]. - The company has established strong relationships with major domestic wind turbine manufacturers, positioning itself as a core supplier in the wind power market [18]. - The revenue growth forecast for the company shows a steady increase, with projected revenues of 740 million yuan, 871 million yuan, and 1.05 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 19.40%, 17.78%, and 20.53% [4][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Changyou Technology focuses on high-performance composite materials and lightweight sandwich materials, with significant applications in wind power and rail transportation [8][9]. - The company has a strong market presence, achieving over 20% market share in the wind turbine nacelle sector from 2022 to 2023 [18]. 2. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 739.8 million yuan in 2022, 871.3 million yuan in 2023, and is projected to reach 1,050.2 million yuan in 2024, with corresponding net profits of 87.5 million yuan, 82.6 million yuan, and 105.2 million yuan [6][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin is slightly lower than its comparable peers, with a reported margin of 24.66% in 2023 [22][23]. 3. Industry Situation - The composite materials industry in China has seen significant growth, with the total production of glass fiber composite materials reaching 6.72 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.84% [14][15]. - The wind power sector has experienced rapid expansion, with installed capacity growing from 31.07 GW in 2010 to 441.34 GW in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 22.64% [17]. 4. Company Highlights - The company has a competitive edge in product quality, utilizing advanced 3D-CAE simulation for optimal product design and material usage [19]. - Changyou Technology is actively expanding its product range, including lightweight sandwich materials, which have seen over 50% revenue growth in 2022 and 2023 [19]. 5. Fundraising Projects - The company plans to invest 76.3 million yuan in three main projects, including the expansion of production lines for high-performance composite components and lightweight materials [20][21]. 6. Peer Comparison - Compared to its peer, Shuangyi Technology, Changyou Technology has a higher revenue scale but a slightly lower gross profit margin, with a PE ratio of 15.70 based on the projected earnings [22][23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][28]. Core Viewpoints - The storage sector is expected to see a revival as demand for edge AI applications grows, driven by advancements in models like DeepSeek, which enhance inference capabilities and reduce costs [4][6]. - Major manufacturers are adjusting capital expenditures and production capacities to align with market demands, particularly focusing on high-end products, which is anticipated to stabilize storage demand starting from Q2 2025 [9][15]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - Demand for edge AI is surging, with DeepSeek facilitating the penetration of AI into various applications, leading to a need for small-capacity, high-bandwidth storage solutions [6][9]. - Major manufacturers are implementing production cuts to stabilize market prices, with Samsung and SK Hynix reducing NAND production by approximately 10% and 20% respectively [9][10]. Hardware - The transition from cloud to edge computing is increasing storage capacity requirements, with AI applications necessitating more powerful storage solutions [19][20]. - AI smartphones are now commonly equipped with at least 16GB of DRAM, while AI PCs typically require a minimum of 16GB, often reaching 32GB [20][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on storage IC design companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Beijing Junzheng, as well as storage module manufacturers such as Baiwei Storage and Jiangbolong, which are expected to benefit from the production cuts by major manufacturers and the rising demand for enterprise-level storage [25].