新股周观点：上周新股市场整体继续呈现小幅收涨，但无论从重大事件之后板块表 现稍显平淡，还是从板块内部表现均衡、强势方向尚不明朗等诸多细节特征，均可 见新股交投情绪回暖尚未完成量变到质变转化。短期，结合新股周期指标体系的最 新变化，我们依然倾向于认为新一轮活跃周期依然可期，只是尚待共识逐步重建； 建议谨慎求证之余灵活应变。 2025 年 05 月 18 日 策略类●证券研究报告 新股休整周期尾端信号或更为清晰，变盘或只待共识重建达成 新股专题 投资要点 （1）上周新股次新板块继续小幅收涨；假设以 2024 年以来上市的新股次新板块 比较来看，上周板块平均涨幅 1.9%，实现正收益占比约 63.1%。 （2）我们可以观察到，上周中美就关税问题取得突出进展、但市场反应稍显平淡， 同时上周新股次新板块表现相对均衡、强势方向尚不明朗，结合绝对估值相对较低 的避险类标的再获关注，可能当前市场依然存在较大分歧、共识重建仍在进行中。 而回到新股周期指标体系，上周新股首日交投情绪再度底部徘徊，首日定价指标则 从历史相对低位区域继续下探到底部区域，可能当前新股休整周期尾部特征更为凸 显，不排除向上变盘从指标体系上正一触即发。短期 ...

2025 年 05 月 17 日 策略类●证券研究报告 短期继续震荡偏强，科技仍是主线 定期报告 投资要点 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 张欣诺 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 政策强化股市震荡偏强的趋势 2025.5.7 节后开启震荡反弹，五月震荡偏强 2025.5.5 新股板块震荡难掩局部积极信号，临近休整 尾端关注逐步变盘可能-华金证券新股周报 2025.5.5 加仓汽车、化工、地产，减仓军工、交运 2025.4.30 部 分 周 期 和 消 费 行 业 一 季 报 可 能 偏 好 2025.4.29 定期报告 市场对分子端的担忧可能过于悲观。（1）大幅降低关税可能改善短期经济增长预 期。一是复盘 2018 至 2019 年 4 次中美贸易摩擦阶段性缓和，可以看到贸易摩擦 缓和有利于改善出口，但 A 股表现更多受国内经济基本面和政策、外部事件等影响。 二是本次超预期的降低关税将大幅改善经济基 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that the expected return over the next 6-12 months is greater than 15% compared to the relevant market index [30]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Zhongce Rubber (603049.SH), is a leading global tire manufacturer with a strong market presence and brand recognition, including well-known brands such as "Chaoyang" and "Goodride" [21][22]. - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with projected revenues of CNY 318.89 billion, CNY 352.52 billion, and CNY 392.55 billion for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 4.21%, 10.55%, and 11.35% [7][25]. - The company is expanding its overseas production bases, which is expected to stabilize and enhance its future operations, with foreign sales accounting for 48.32% of revenue in 2024 [22]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved operating revenues of CNY 318.89 billion, CNY 352.52 billion, and CNY 392.55 billion for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, with corresponding net profits of CNY 12.25 billion, CNY 26.38 billion, and CNY 37.87 billion [7][21]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenues of CNY 106.41 billion, a 17.06% increase year-over-year, while net profit decreased by 19.14% [7]. Industry Situation - The global tire market has maintained a scale of over USD 150 billion, with 2023 sales reaching USD 192 billion, driven by the essential nature of tires in automotive consumption [14][20]. - The Chinese tire market is expected to continue growing due to increasing vehicle ownership, with a projected vehicle count of 453 million by the end of 2024 [16][17]. Company Highlights - Zhongce Rubber has been in the tire manufacturing industry for over 60 years and ranks among the top ten global tire manufacturers, leading in sales within China [21][22]. - The company is expanding its overseas production capabilities, with new facilities in Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico, which will help mitigate trade protectionism impacts and enhance profit margins [22]. Fundraising Project Investments - The company plans to invest in five projects through its IPO, including a green 5G digital factory for high-performance tires, which is expected to generate significant revenue and profit upon completion [23][24]. Peer Comparison - In 2024, Zhongce Rubber's revenue of CNY 392.55 billion and net profit of CNY 37.87 billion positioned it in the mid-high range compared to peers, although its sales gross margin was below the industry average of 21.29% [25][26].

2025 年 05 月 16 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 优优绿能（301590.SZ） 新股覆盖研究 投资要点 | 交易数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 总股本（百万股） | 31.50 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | | 个月价格区间 12 | / | | 分析师 | 李蕙 | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910519100001 | | 报告联系人 | lihui1@huajinsc.cn 戴筝筝 | | | daizhengzheng@huajinsc.cn | 相关报告 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（古麒绒 材）-2025 年第 36 期-总第 562 期 2025.5.10 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（威高血 净）-2025 年第 34 期-总第 560 期 2025.4.29 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（天工股 份）-2025 年第 35 期-总第 561 期 2025.4.29 华金证券-新股-新股专题覆盖报告（太力科 技）-2025 年第 33 期-总第 559 期 2025.4.27 华金证 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in performance for Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 505 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 56 million yuan, up 91.17% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the wind power market, with a projected revenue of 1.967 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 1.11% year-on-year, and a net profit of 173 million yuan, a decrease of 58.03% year-on-year [5] - The company is focusing on expanding its large casting and forging capacity to capture the growing offshore wind power market, with a projected increase in sales of wind power casting products by 71% year-on-year [5] - The company has the capability to produce core casting components for wind turbines ranging from 5MW to 25MW, with a monthly production rate reaching new highs [5] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 2.737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 39.1%, and a net profit of 402 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 132.5% [6] - The expected EPS for 2025 is 1.26 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 16 times [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 27.4% in 2025, with a net margin of 14.7% [6] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 8.575 billion yuan by 2025, with total liabilities of 2.145 billion yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (first coverage) [1] Core Views - The company has reached an inflection point in performance, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by its micro-prism and optical isolator products, indicating a strong potential for future expansion [1][6] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 597 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 55.82 million yuan, up 271.02% year-on-year [1][3] - The first quarter of 2025 continued this growth trend, with total revenue of 156 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.88%, and a net profit of 20.10 million yuan, up 155.43% year-on-year [1][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 597 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 69.20%, and a net profit of 55.82 million yuan, marking a significant turnaround from losses in previous years [1][3] - The first quarter of 2025 showed continued growth with revenue of 156 million yuan, a 26.88% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 20.10 million yuan, reflecting a 155.43% increase [1][6] Product Development and Market Position - The company specializes in precision optical components, with a strong position in the smartphone camera filter market, leading in infrared cutoff filter shipments in China [3][6] - The company has successfully expanded its product lines to include optical isolators and Z-block components, transitioning from the telecom market to the data communication market, which is expected to drive further revenue growth [4][6] Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 978 million yuan, 1.45 billion yuan, and 1.97 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 63.8%, 48.3%, and 36.1% [5][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 110 million yuan, 152 million yuan, and 206 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 96.8%, 38.2%, and 35.5% [5][7]

2025 年 05 月 12 日 策略类●证券研究报告 降低关税大超预期，A 股可能突破上行 事件点评 投资要点 事件：2025 年 5 月 12 日，新华社发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明。 降低关税大超预期，经济基本面预期和市场情绪都可能大幅改善。（1）中美双方 大幅降低关税大超市场预期。一是对华加征关税由之前的 145%大幅降低到 30% （2、3 月的 20%+4 月对等关税的 10%），24%的关税在 90 天内暂停征收，4 月 8 日和 9 日加征的全部取消，这大幅低于之前市场普遍预期的降低到 50-60%的水 平，大超市场预期。二是相比于 2018 年连续 13 轮经贸会谈才达成三阶段协议， 本次一次会谈就达成超预期结果，主要还是因加征关税对美国经济和通胀的影响较 大，美方诉求较高。（2）超预期的降低关税将大幅改善经济基本面的预期。一是 将大幅改善之前因超高关税导致的出口大幅回落的预期：首先，加征关税对全年出 口的负面影响可能大幅回落；其次，4 月份出口增速依然较高，源于抢出口等因素， 加征关税大幅降低后，可能改善抢出口因素消失后出口可能大幅回落的担忧。二是 国内保增长政策大概率不会因此削弱：首先 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [2][7] Core Views - The company has reached an inflection point in its performance, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by its micro-prism and optical isolator products [1][4] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 597 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 55.82 million yuan, up 271.02% year-on-year [1][4] - The first quarter of 2025 continued this growth trend, with total revenue of 156 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.88%, and a net profit of 20.10 million yuan, up 155.43% year-on-year [1][4] Financial Performance - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of precision optical components, with a focus on imaging optical components for camera modules and communication optical components for laser radar and optical communication devices [4][7] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is 978 million yuan, 1.45 billion yuan, and 1.974 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 63.8%, 48.3%, and 36.1% respectively [6][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 110 million yuan, 152 million yuan, and 206 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 96.8%, 38.2%, and 35.5% [6][8] Market Position and Product Development - The company is a leading player in the domestic Android smartphone filter market, with its infrared cutoff filter component shipment volume ranking first in China [4][7] - The company has successfully expanded its product lines into the data communication market, with significant growth in sales of optical isolators and other components [5][7] - The company has invested in R&D, with a focus on laser radar optical components, Z-Block wavelength division multiplexing components, optical isolators, and mobile micro-prisms, increasing R&D expenses by 16.20% in 2024 [4][6]

Group 1: New Stock Market Performance - The average increase of new stocks listed since 2024 is approximately 3.0%, with about 82.9% of new stocks showing positive returns[1] - The average increase for new stocks on the North Exchange is 5.5%, with around 96.2% of new stocks experiencing gains[5] - The average issuance price-to-earnings ratio for new stocks last week was 24.2X, with a subscription success rate of 0.0267%[4] Group 2: Market Trends and Recommendations - The current market is in a transformation window, with significant policy clarity expected to gradually materialize, indicating a potential new active cycle[2] - Caution is advised due to ongoing external disturbances, including geopolitical tensions and tariff negotiations, which may lead to market fluctuations[2] - Focus should be on near-term new stocks that have undergone sufficient adjustment and offer relatively high cost-performance ratios, particularly those benefiting from hot themes or policy expectations[3] Group 3: Upcoming New Stocks - This week, five new stocks are set to complete subscriptions, including one from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and two from the Growth Enterprise Market[7] - One stock, Guqi Down Material, is expected to start pricing inquiries, being a significant supplier of duck down and goose down materials[8]

古麒绒材（001390.SZ） 新股覆盖研究 投资要点 下周二（5 月 13 日）有一家主板上市公司"古麒绒材"询价。 | 交易数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 总股本（百万股） | 150.00 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | | 个月价格区间 12 | / | | 分析师 | 李蕙 | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910519100001 | | | lihui1@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 戴筝筝 | | | daizhengzheng@huajinsc.cn | 2025 年 05 月 09 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 数据来源：聚源、华金证券研究所 相关报告 华金证券-新股- 新股专题覆盖报告（威高血 净）-2025 年第 34 期-总第 560 期 2025.4.29 华金证券-新股- 新股专题覆盖报告（天工股 份）-2025 年第 35 期-总第 561 期 2025.4.29 华金证券-新股- 新股专题覆盖报告（太力科 技）-2025 年第 33 期-总第 559 期 2025.4.27 华 ...