2025 年 03 月 06 日 策略类●证券研究报告 政策进一步细化和落实，股市慢牛延续 事件点评 投资要点 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用，政策超预期变化，经济修复不及预期。 相关报告 明确定调政策发力，科技仍是主线-明确定调 政策发力，科技仍是主线 2025.3.5 今年两会值得关注的方向有哪些？-今年两 会值得关注的方向有哪些？ 2025.3.3 活跃周期后段震荡分化加剧，两会时间局部 热 度 预 计依 然 可 期 - 华 金 证 券新 股 周 报 2025.3.2 春季行情未完，进入后半段-春季行情未完， 进入后半段 2025.3.1 人气产业链不断迎来新催化，新股次新板块 交 投 热 度 不 减 - 华 金 证 券 新 股 周 报 2025.2.23 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ， 宏观政策上，财政、货币、消费、外贸等方面齐发力。（1）财政政策力度上升， 发力方向明确：一是截至今年 3 月 5 日，地方共发行置换债券 2.96 万亿元，去年 发行的 2 万亿元置换债券 5 年利息预计减少 2000 亿元以上；二是今年中央对地方 转 ...

2025 年 03 月 06 日 策略类●证券研究报告 政策进一步细化和落实，股市慢牛延续 事件点评 投资要点 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用，政策超预期变化，经济修复不及预期。 | 分析师 | 邓利军 | | --- | --- | | SAC | 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 | | | denglijun@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 张欣诺 | | | zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn | | 报告联系人 | 苏雪儿 | | | suxueer@huajinsc.cn | 相关报告 明确定调政策发力，科技仍是主线-明确定调 政策发力，科技仍是主线 2025.3.5 今年两会值得关注的方向有哪些？-今年两 会值得关注的方向有哪些？ 2025.3.3 活跃周期后段震荡分化加剧，两会时间局部 热 度 预 计依 然 可 期 - 华 金 证 券新 股 周 报 2025.3.2 春季行情未完，进入后半段-春季行情未完， 进入后半段 2025.3.1 人气产业链不断迎来新催化，新股次新板块 交 投 热 度 不 减 - 华 金 证 券 新 股 周 报 2025.2.23 ...

《政府工作报告》解读 投资要点 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 两会聚焦：五大看点 2025.3.4 2025 年 03 月 05 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 扩财政促内需的含金量正在上升 主题报告 PMI 节后反弹，投资好于消费——PMI 点评 （2025.2） 2025.3.2 LPR 四度持平，十债利率升至 1.7%，释放 何种信号？——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 95 期） 2025.2.21 信贷创纪录"开门红"，年初集中还是全年趋 高？——金融数据速评（2025.1）2025.2.14 内外形势有何变化，货币如何调整优化？— —《货币政策执行报告》（2024Q4）解读·周 报（第 94 期） 2025.2.14 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 11 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 一、目标维持 5%并突出外部风险，促进消费投资内需决心坚定。同样的 5%，不 同的外部环境——单边主义和保护主义加剧、世界经济增长动能不足，指向净出口 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a positive policy tone, highlighting the importance of expanding domestic demand, fiscal stimulus, and the strategy of promoting science and education [4][6][10] - The fiscal policy is set to be more aggressive, with an increase in the deficit rate and scale compared to last year, indicating a significant rise in fiscal spending [4][6][10] - The report prioritizes expanding domestic demand, with a focus on boosting consumption and lowering the CPI target for 2025, reflecting ongoing economic pressures [4][6][10] Group 2 - New measures include promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, enhancing strategic reserves, and establishing market stabilization mechanisms [4][10][12] - The report indicates a shift in focus to consumer spending, with specific actions to support consumption, including a special fund of 300 billion yuan for replacing old consumer goods [4][12][14] - The development of new productive forces is highlighted, with an emphasis on emerging industries such as robotics, commercial aerospace, and 6G technology [4][12][14] Group 3 - The market outlook is positive, with expectations of increased confidence driven by clear growth policies and fiscal measures [4][15][27] - The report suggests that the technology sector remains a key focus, with potential benefits for TMT, consumer goods, and certain cyclical industries [4][22][25] - Specific sectors such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI are expected to benefit from supportive policies and technological advancements [4][25][27]

两会聚焦：五大看点 主题报告 投资要点 2025 年 03 月 04 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 PMI 节后反弹，投资好于消费——PMI 点评 （2025.2） 2025.3.2 LPR 四度持平，十债利率升至 1.7%，释放 何种信号？——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 95 期） 2025.2.21 信贷创纪录"开门红"，年初集中还是全年趋 高？——金融数据速评（2025.1）2025.2.14 内外形势有何变化，货币如何调整优化？— —《货币政策执行报告》（2024Q4）解读·周 报（第 94 期） 2025.2.14 核心通胀不降反升，美联储还能降息吗？— —美国 CPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.13 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 10 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 两会开幕之际，经济目标与政策方面五大看点值得关注。每年两会将定调全年增长 目标、明确财政货币政策力度、点明供需循环政策抓手、 ...

Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in TMT, new energy, home appliances, automotive, and consumer sectors during the Two Sessions [2][24] - High-growth sectors identified include TMT, new energy, and pharmaceuticals, while policy-driven sectors include TMT under technology innovation and home appliances, automotive, and consumer electronics under domestic demand expansion [2][24] Market Trends - Historical analysis indicates that market performance tends to be weaker after the Two Sessions compared to before, with small-cap stocks showing higher winning probabilities in the short term [7][10] - The average performance of major indices post-Two Sessions shows declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index averaging a decline of -1.34% in the first five trading days [7][10] Policy Directions - The report anticipates a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a focus on stability in economic growth expectations across various provinces [16][19] - Key policy themes identified include new quality productivity, deepening digital economy, expanding domestic demand, and upgrading social welfare [21][22] Industry Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors related to new quality productivity, such as artificial intelligence, industrial internet, and data elements, as well as future industries like satellite internet and humanoid robots [2][24] - Specific industries to watch include TMT, new energy, and pharmaceuticals, driven by technological advancements and policy support [25][26] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector is expected to see improved performance post-Two Sessions, with significant growth in real estate, construction, retail, food and beverage, and transportation sectors [10][14] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption include issuing digital RMB vouchers and enhancing urban-rural coordination to stimulate consumer spending [22][23]

2025 年 03 月 02 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 江南新材（603124.SH） 新股覆盖研究 投资要点 下周三（3 月 5 日）有一家主板上市公司"江南新材"询价。 交易数据 总市值（百万元） 流通市值（百万元） 总股本（百万股） 109.31 流通股本（百万股） 12 个月价格区间 / 分析师 李蕙 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910519100001 lihui1@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 戴筝筝 daizhengzheng@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 华金证券-新股- 新股专题覆盖报告（恒鑫生 活）-2025 年第 13 期-总第 539 期 2025.3.1 华金证券-新股- 新股专题覆盖报告（弘景光 电）-2025 年第 12 期-总第 538 期 2025.2.23 华金证券-新股- 新股专题覆盖报告（汉朔科 技）-2025 年第 11 期-总第 537 期 2025.2.22 华金证券-新股- 新股专题覆盖报告（永杰新 材）-2025 年第 10 期-总第 536 期 2025.2.21 华金证券-新股- 新股专题覆盖报告（常友科 技）-2025 年第 9 期-总第 53 ...

2025 年 03 月 02 日 策略类●证券研究报告 活跃周期后段震荡分化加剧，两会时间局部热度预计依然可期 新股专题 投资要点 新股周观点：上周新股次新板块震荡分化有所加剧，但从资金面和局部板块热度， 可能当前依然处于活跃周期进程中。但随着人气产业链获利累积，外部不利冲击扰 动加剧、而外部利好催化又逐渐钝化，活跃周期预计步入后段，震荡反复和轮动或 更为频繁和短促。本周进入两会时间，建议灵活博弈局部政策催化预期同时，适度 谨慎。 （1）新股板块上周出现震荡分化；假设以 2024 年以来上市的新股次新板块比较 来看，上周板块平均涨幅约-2.0%，实现正收益占比约 36.4%。 （2）虽然以 AI+为代表的部分前期表现极为活跃的新股次新标的出现震荡回撤， 但资金博弈热度上周并未退潮、局部板块活跃热度则依然维持在颇高位置。我们倾 向于认为，可能本轮新股活跃周期还是在进行中，只是随着板块获利、尤其是人气 板块获利已经颇高，本轮活跃周期或不可避免步入后段，板块对于外部不利冲击的 扰动表现地或更为剧烈。 （3）短期来看，本周进入两会时间，政策催化预期可能将逐渐升温，此前围绕着 重大科技产业事件持续活跃的主题产业链或将出 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [31]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Xinya Cable (001382.SZ), specializes in the research, production, and sales of electric wires and cables, with a focus on power cables, electrical equipment cables, and overhead conductors. It has established a strong competitive position in the South China power grid sector, particularly through long-term partnerships with major clients like the Southern Power Grid [6][22]. - The company has shown a mixed financial performance, with projected revenues of 2.763 billion yuan in 2022, 3.013 billion yuan in 2023, and 2.834 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting year-over-year changes of -4.50%, 9.03%, and -5.94% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 111 million yuan in 2022, 164 million yuan in 2023, and 135 million yuan in 2024, with year-over-year changes of 14.85%, 48.40%, and -17.94% respectively [7][22]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved operating revenues of 2.763 billion yuan, 3.013 billion yuan, and 2.834 billion yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of -4.50%, 9.03%, and -5.94% [7][22]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 111 million yuan, 164 million yuan, and 135 million yuan for the same years, with year-over-year growth rates of 14.85%, 48.40%, and -17.94% [7][22]. Industry Situation - The electric wire and cable industry plays a crucial role in the national economy, maintaining stable growth due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in China. The industry is expected to continue growing, driven by investments in smart grids, urban infrastructure, and renewable energy [13][14]. Company Highlights - Xinya Cable is recognized as a leading enterprise in the South China power grid sector, with a strong partnership with the Southern Power Grid. The company has been involved in significant national projects and has maintained a stable revenue contribution from this key client, accounting for approximately 40% of its total revenue [22][23]. - The company is actively enhancing its research and development capabilities for specialty cables, targeting new applications in automotive and robotics sectors. This includes the development of fire-resistant cables and cables for electric vehicle charging [23][24]. Comparison with Peers - Compared to its peers, Xinya Cable's revenue and gross margin are below the industry average. The average revenue for comparable companies in 2023 was 5.152 billion yuan, with an average PE-TTM of 24.83X and an average gross margin of 15.28% [26][27].

2025 年 03 月 02 日 宏观类●证券研究报告 PMI 节后反弹，投资好于消费 事件点评 PMI 点评（2025.2） 投资要点 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 LPR 四度持平，十债利率升至 1.7%，释放 何种信号？——华金宏观·双循环周报（第 95 期） 2025.2.21 信贷创纪录"开门红"，年初集中还是全年趋 高？——金融数据速评（2025.1）2025.2.14 内外形势有何变化，货币如何调整优化？— —《货币政策执行报告》（2024Q4）解读·周 报（第 94 期） 2025.2.14 核心通胀不降反升，美联储还能降息吗？— —美国 CPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.13 油价回升服务走高，CPI 稍好于预期—— CPI、PPI 点评（2025.1） 2025.2.9 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 节后 PMI 如期明显反弹，投资回暖快于消费。由于 1 月跌幅较深，1 ...