2024年02月18日 行业研究●证券研究报告 传媒 行业快报 春节档刷新影史记录，口碑 票房强劲复苏 + 领先大市-A维持 投资评级 首选股票 评级 投资要点 热点事件： 据灯塔研究院，2024年春节档(2月10日-2月17日)，全国电影票 一年行业表现 房为80.16亿元，观影人次为1.63亿，同比分别增长了18.47%和26.36%，均 创同档期新纪录。据猫眼专业版，此次春节档创多项纪录：中国影史春节档票房 新高、中国影史春节档观影人次新高、中国影史春节档场次新高。据国家电影 局，2023年，中国电影市场凭借549.15亿元(人民币)票房、12.99亿观影人次 的佳绩实现强势复苏。业内人士认为，春节档、暑期档对于电影市场来说十分关 键，两大档期的票房已连续两年占到全年的50%。2024春节档火热开局，影视 产业势头强劲，有望引领复苏趋势，催化上下游供需端正向发展。 合家欢喜剧主导档期基调，点燃春节观影热潮。据灯塔研究院，2024年春节档 资料来源：聚源 票房前4名影片分别为：《热辣滚烫》27.18亿元，《飞驰人生2》23.98亿元， 升幅% 1M 3M 12M 《熊出没·逆转时空》13.89亿元，《 ...

证券研究报告 半导体 行业评级：领先大市-A 华金证券电子团队—走进“芯”时代系列深度之七十四“算力芯” 以“芯”助先进算法，以“算”驱万物智能 分析师：孙远峰 S0910522120001 分析师：王臣复 S0910523020006 2024年2月18日 ...

2024年02月18日 行业研究●证券研究报告 消费者服务 行业周报 春节长假点燃旅游热，旅游消费持续修复 领先大市-B维持 投资评级 投资要点 一年行业表现 超长春节假期点燃旅游热，国内游表现较好：根据文化和旅游部数据统计，今 年春节假期全国出游人数为4.74亿人次，同比增长34.3%，按可比口径较2019 年同期增长19%；实现国内旅游收入6326.87亿元，同比增长47.3%，按可比 口径较2019年同期增长7.7%；客单价提升至1334.78元，按可比口径恢复至 2019年同期91%。南北互换旅游特征明显，中长线旅游预订量同比高增。根据 携程报告，春节假期北方冰雪游、南方避寒游“南北互换”式旅游特征明显。根 据同程旅行数据，春节假期国内热门城市的机票、火车票、酒店预订同比涨幅均 超过3成。出游距离方面，根据携程数据，跨省游订单占比为57%，同比去年 资料来源：聚源 翻番增长。根据飞猪数据，中长线游预订量同比去年增长超3倍。 政策催化叠加国际航班运力持续恢复，出入境游开启加速复苏。受益于春节8 升幅% 1M 3M 12M 天长假，叠加签证利好政策以及入境游便利化举措等，出入境游复苏势头强劲。 相对收 ...

2024年02月07日 公司研究●证券研究报告 汇顶科技（ ） 公司快报 603160.SH 电子 | 集成电路Ⅲ 基本面向上趋势确立，新品落地释放新动能 买入-A(上调) 投资评级 股价(2024-02-07) 56.57元 事件点评：公司发布2023年年度业绩预盈公告，预计2023年年度实现营业收入 440,500万元左右，同比增长30.2%左右，预计2023年年度实现归属于母公司所有 交易数据 者的净利润为人民币13,200万元到18,200万元，预计2023年年度实现归属于母公 总市值（百万元） 25,909.17 司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为人民币10,100万元到15,100万元。 流通市值（百万元） 25,909.17 总股本（百万股） 458.00 2023年业绩预盈，基本面向上趋势确立：根据公司发布的2023年年度业绩预盈公 流通股本（百万股） 458.00 告，预计2023年年度实现营业收入440,500万元左右，同比增长30.2%左右，对 12个月价格区间 77.33/46.38 应的2023年Q4单季度营收约12.09亿元，季度营收环比2023年Q3增长2.89%； 一年股 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2023, with projected revenues between 850 million to 900 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.92% to 76.74%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be between 115 million to 165 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 860.66% to 1278.34% [1][3]. - The company has a well-rounded product matrix and is making progress in developing equipment for the 1Xnm process node, which is expected to drive future growth [1][3]. - The semiconductor testing and measurement equipment market is experiencing rapid growth, with increasing domestic demand for localized equipment [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a revenue of 8.78 billion yuan in 2023, with growth rates of 72.3%, 44.3%, and 34.3% projected for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively. The net profit is expected to reach 1.40 billion yuan in 2023, with an astonishing growth rate of 1090.4% [4][5]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 50.05% in 2023 to 52.61% by 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [5][6]. Product Development - The company focuses on two main categories of integrated circuit equipment: testing and measurement. It has developed a range of products that are already in use in domestic 28nm and above process lines [1][3]. - The company is advancing its research and development for 1Xnm process node equipment, which is crucial for maintaining competitiveness in the semiconductor industry [1][3]. Market Context - The global market for testing and measurement equipment was approximately 12.32 billion USD in 2022, with a year-on-year growth of 45.80%. The Chinese market accounted for about 3.11 billion USD, representing 25.24% of the global market [3][4]. - There is significant potential for domestic companies to increase their market share in semiconductor testing and measurement equipment, as the current localization rate is low [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comparison of the company's valuation metrics with peers, indicating a P/E ratio of 123.36 for 2023, which is higher than the average of comparable companies [8][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is 0.44 yuan, with expectations of growth to 0.92 yuan by 2025 [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add-A" [2] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit for Q4 2023, with estimates ranging from 1.278 billion to 1.478 billion yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 347% to 417% [1] - The company is focusing on the Micro OLED and Micro LED technologies, which are anticipated to meet the demands of the mid-to-high-end XR consumer market, driven by leading global brands [1][2] - The company is establishing a new semiconductor display production line in Beijing, utilizing LTPO technology, aimed at producing VR displays for the rapidly growing metaverse market [1] - The company has a strategic plan to enhance its production capabilities in Micro LED technology, with a manufacturing base in Zhuhai expected to achieve mass production by December 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a total revenue of 180.573 billion yuan for 2023, with a slight year-on-year growth of 1.2% [4] - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is projected to be between 2.319 billion and 2.519 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 69.3% [4] - The company anticipates a recovery in net profit to 4.331 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 86.8% [4] - The projected P/E ratios for the upcoming years are 59.3 for 2023, 31.7 for 2024, and 13.7 for 2025, indicating a potential improvement in valuation as earnings recover [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively enhancing its product offerings in the OLED market, particularly in flexible AMOLED displays, which have seen a significant increase in shipment volume, reaching nearly 120 million units in 2023 [2] - The company is also focusing on upgrading its LCD products to AMOLED, particularly in the automotive and IT sectors, to capture a broader market share [2] - The strategic investments in new technologies and production lines are expected to position the company as a leader in the next-generation display technology market [1][4]

2024年02月04日 公司研究●证券研究报告 沪硅产业（ ） 公司快报 688126.SH 电子 | 半导体材料Ⅲ 业绩短期承压，稳步扩产拓产品及应用 增持-A(维持) 投资评级 股价(2024-02-02) 13.45元 投资要点 2024年1月26日，公司发布《2023年年度业绩预告》。 交易数据 整体市场下行叠加扩产高投入，致使公司业绩短期承压 总市值（百万元） 36,949.53 流通市值（百万元） 36,588.01 公司预计2023年实现归母净利润1.68~2.01亿元，同比减少38.16%~48.31%； 总股本（百万股） 2,747.18 扣非归母净利润-1.80~-1.44亿元。单季度看，23Q4公司预计实现归母净利润 流通股本（百万股） 2,720.30 -0.45~-0.12亿元，扣非归母净利润-1.17~-0.81亿元。 12个月价格区间 24.19/14.17 公司业绩承压主要系1）整体市场影响：SEMI数据显示，受终端需求疲软、行业 一年股价表现 库存高企等因素影响，2023年全球半导体硅片出货量同比减少14.3%；公司半导 体硅片收入受整体市场影响同比减少约12%。2）扩产高 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next six months compared to the CSI 300 index [20]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid revenue growth driven by overseas business expansion, with projected revenues for 2023 expected to be between 8.11 billion and 8.35 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 35% to 39% [20]. - The net profit for 2023 is anticipated to be between 0.55 billion and 0.66 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 772.77% to 947.33% compared to the previous year [20]. - The company has successfully implemented a localization strategy to expand its overseas market presence, establishing branches in countries like Thailand and hiring local talent in various regions [20]. - Domestic business growth has also rebounded, attributed to strategies targeting small and medium enterprises and strengthening marketing networks [20]. - The company has controlled sales expenses effectively, leading to a notable increase in net profit, despite a projected net loss under non-recurring items due to government subsidies and investment income [20]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2023-2025 are adjusted to 8.20 billion, 11.09 billion, and 14.87 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 0.58 billion, 1.65 billion, and 2.78 billion yuan [20]. - The report highlights a gross margin improvement potential due to enhanced product competitiveness and pricing power [20]. - Key financial metrics include: - Revenue (million yuan): 619 (2021), 601 (2022), 820 (2023E), 1,109 (2024E), 1,487 (2025E) [11]. - Net profit (million yuan): 182 (2021), 6 (2022), 58 (2023E), 165 (2024E), 278 (2025E) [11]. - Gross margin (%): 97.9 (2021), 98.4 (2022), 97.9 (2023E), 98.9 (2024E), 99.0 (2025E) [11]. - P/E ratio: 45.4 (2021), 1308.0 (2022), 141.4 (2023E), 50.1 (2024E), 29.7 (2025E) [11].

2024年02月04日 公司研究●证券研究报告 北京君正（ ） 公司快报 300223.SZ 电子 | 集成电路Ⅲ 23Q4 利润端预计同比明显改善，静候行业市场 买入-A(维持) 投资评级 股价(2024-02-02) 45.66元 需求回暖 交易数据 投资要点 总市值（百万元） 21,988.48 2024年1月26日，公司发布《2023年度业绩预告》。 流通市值（百万元） 18,985.70 计算芯片全年营收预计实现增长，23Q4利润端预计同比明显改善 总股本（百万股） 481.57 流通股本（百万股） 415.81 2023年公司营收预计同比有所下滑，其中计算芯片营收预计同比实现较好增长， 12个月价格区间 108.51/48.79 存储芯片和模拟互联芯片营收预计同比有所下滑。利润端，公司预计2023年实现 归母净利润 4.65~5.57 亿元，同比减少 29.47%~41.13%；扣非归母净利润 一年股价表现 4.23~5.15亿元，同比减少31.02%~43.34%，非经常性损益约为0.41亿元。 单季度看，23Q4公司利润端预计同比明显改善，预计实现归母净利润0.96~1.88 亿元，同比增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.385 to 2.612 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 5% to 15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 260 to 300 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.22% to 20.26% [1]. - The company has made significant strides in the central state-owned enterprise market, which is anticipated to be a key growth driver moving forward. The revenue growth in Q4 2023 is expected to be between 703 to 930 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16% to 54% [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its presence in the intelligent manufacturing sector and expanding its client base in high-demand industries, which is expected to further boost revenue growth in 2024 [1]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 2.544 billion yuan in 2023, 3.240 billion yuan in 2024, and 4.003 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding net profits of 263 million yuan, 347 million yuan, and 452 million yuan respectively [4][16]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 35.54% in 2023 to 37.10% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4][16]. - The report highlights that the company's revenue growth in the general ERP business is expected to be 6% in 2023, followed by 20% in 2024 and 17.8% in 2025, while the intelligent manufacturing and industrial internet business is projected to grow at rates of 16.5%, 37.9%, and 30% over the same period [5][4]. Market Positioning - The company is positioned as a leader in discrete industrial software and is expected to benefit from the recovery in demand from downstream manufacturing clients. The focus on the central state-owned enterprise market since 2023 is anticipated to provide additional performance flexibility [19]