2024年02月19日 行业研究●证券研究报告 食品饮料 行业周报 春节：白酒量价齐升，库存高位略降 同步大市-A维持 投资评级 投资要点 首选股票 评级 600519.SH 贵州茅台 买入-A 行情回顾：上周食品饮料（申万）行业整体上涨6.59%，在31个子行业中排名 603369.SH 今世缘 买入-B 第8位，跑赢上证综指1.61pct，跑输创业板4.8pct，跟随行情先跌后涨。二级 （申万）子板块对比，本周子版块均有一定程度上涨，其中调味品、白酒上涨幅 一年行业表现 度最大，分别上涨8.84%、7.06%，食品加工、饮料乳品上涨幅度最小，分别上 涨4.53%、3.69%，食品加工中保健品表现最好（上涨10.18%），为三级子行 业中涨幅最大。 本周大事：1）经销商反馈：白酒销售量略增、价略升、库存略降，且存在一定 分化。整体来看春节白酒销售略超节前预期，体现为销量均有所增长、批价略有 上行、库存略有下降，但库存依旧处于历史相对较高位置。我们认为今年春节在 消费力不足的大背景下，白酒消费依旧出现量价齐升，主要原因有三：1）去年 资料来源：聚源 基数较低；2）春节存在一定虹吸效应；3）节前酒企推出挺价 ...

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 02 月 20 日 \n5Y LPR 降息：稳地产促化债，传导债市利率 \n投资要点 | 宏观类 ● 证券研究报告 \n事件点评 \n分析师 秦泰 | | 只降长端政策利率，如何理解？ 2 月 20 日，人民银行时隔半年再度宣布降息，大 | SAC 执业证书编号： S0910523080002 | | 幅调降 5Y LPR 25BP 至 3.95% ，同时分别维持 1Y LPR 利率和 MLF 利率于 3.45% 、 | qintai@huajinsc.cn | | 2.5% 不变。我们认为本次结构性降息说明了三点问题： | | | 1 、本次降息向长端倾斜的结构和幅度均超预期，呼应央行所称"理顺信 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market" for the industry, indicating an expected investment return that will exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 10% over the next six months [1]. Core Viewpoints - The short drama genre has shown stable development during the Spring Festival period, contributing to the gradual establishment of a robust industry ecosystem. The highest daily consumption of short dramas during this period has exceeded 100 million, with an estimated total box office of 800 million [1]. - The report highlights two categories of short dramas during the Spring Festival: one represented by platforms like Douyin focusing on "premium micro-short films," and the other being self-released short dramas on mini-programs [1]. - The supply and demand sides of the micro-short drama market are mutually reinforcing, with significant increases in production and user engagement. The number of registered micro-short dramas rose from 398 in 2021 to an estimated 3,000 in 2023, reflecting a nearly 700% year-on-year growth [1]. - The report emphasizes the growing user base for micro-short dramas, with over 50% of short video users having watched content under three minutes, indicating a strong market demand [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes that the micro-short drama market has seen a significant increase in production, with the number of online short dramas rising from over 600 in 2021 to more than 1,400 in 2023, maintaining a growth rate of over 50% year-on-year [1]. - The report also mentions that the user traffic for micro-short drama apps has shown a growth trend, with a month-on-month increase of 33.8% in December 2023 [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can leverage quality content and IP, such as Zhongwen Online (300364.SZ), Yuedu Group (0772.HK), and Zhangyue Technology (603533.SH). It also recommends companies involved in film production like Huayi Brothers (300027.SZ) and Mango Super Media (300413.SZ) [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the gaming industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 10% over the next six months compared to the CSI 300 Index [1]. Core Insights - The gaming market is experiencing significant diversification, with various game types performing well. The supply side maintains a high standard of content quality and quantity [1]. - The mini-game sector is highly competitive, with a substantial number of products available, indicating growth potential and opportunities for development [1]. - The mobile gaming market shows strong overall performance, with several Chinese developers achieving record revenues, particularly during key events like the Spring Festival [1]. Summary by Sections Mini-Game Market - As of February 19, 2024, the top 100 mini-games on WeChat saw 25 games rise in rankings, 39 games drop, 32 new entries, and 13 unchanged positions. The top 10 includes three games from 37 Interactive Entertainment [1]. - Card games dominate the top 10, accounting for 50% of the list. 37 Interactive Entertainment has the most games listed, with eight titles, followed by Crazy Games and Family Interactive with six and five titles, respectively [1]. - Notable rank increases include "Silver River Battleship" rising 29 places and "This City Has Good Farmland" rising 30 places [1]. Mobile Gaming Market - In January 2024, 38 Chinese companies entered the global mobile game publisher revenue top 100, collectively earning $1.96 billion, which represents 37.8% of the total revenue for that period [1]. - Tencent, NetEase, miHoYo, Point Interactive, and 37 Interactive Entertainment are the top five Chinese mobile game publishers by revenue [1]. - Key mobile games like "Honor of Kings" and "Teamfight Tactics" saw significant revenue growth, with the former increasing by 15% month-over-month and the latter by 154% [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that effectively leverage player profiles to discover gameplay and content opportunities, promoting industry growth. Recommended stocks include Yaoji Technology, 37 Interactive Entertainment, and others [1].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a high dividend potential and a possible market capitalization revaluation for the company due to its state-owned background and strong performance in the PCB sector [7]. Core Insights - The company maintains a leading position in the PCB industry, particularly in the special fields of aerospace and satellite communication, benefiting from a growing market demand [26][42]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the satellite ground equipment market, with a significant increase in production and application of satellite communication technologies [56][79]. - The company has established strong partnerships with major equipment manufacturers, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [34][44]. Summary by Sections Market Position and Growth - The company is positioned among the top players in the PCB industry, with a focus on high-end applications such as automotive electronics and communication devices, which are expected to see substantial growth [12][29]. - The PCB market is projected to grow significantly, with specific applications like servers and automotive electronics showing high growth rates of 32.9% and 25.9% respectively from 2020 to 2021 [13][15]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2022 is estimated at 7,076 million, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, although a decline of 22.9% is expected in 2023 [84]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable around 15.1% for the upcoming years, indicating a solid profitability outlook [84]. Industry Trends - The satellite internet industry is experiencing rapid growth, with significant investments and developments in low Earth orbit satellite constellations, which are expected to enhance global internet coverage [47][65]. - The report notes that the demand for satellite communication solutions is increasing, particularly in remote areas and for applications in defense and emergency services [92][93]. Technological Advancements - The company is actively involved in the development of advanced satellite communication technologies, including temperature-stabilized crystal oscillators, which are crucial for high-end communication devices [42][79]. - The integration of software-defined satellite technologies is anticipated to lower costs and improve efficiency in satellite operations [65].

2024年02月18日 行业研究●证券研究报告 传媒 行业快报 视频生成模型再迎突破 领先大市-A维持 投资评级 投资要点 首选股票 评级 事件： 2月16日OpenAI 发布文生视频模型Sora，其使用 Transformer 架 构，建立在DALL·E3和GPT模型之上，可以生成长达一分钟的有运动、多机 一年行业表现 位视频。相比业界水平，Sora将视频生成的时长一次性提升了15倍，直接迈 过了市面上所有短视频的时长要求。 视频生成模型范式的确定有望进一步推动多模态模型发展。模型层面：在文生 视频领域，目前模型思路有循环网络（RNN）、生成对抗网络（GAN）和扩 散模型（Diffusionmodels），Sora为一种扩散模型相较于 GAN，扩散模型 的生成多样性和训练稳定性都要更好。生成表现：扩散模型在图片和视频生成 上有更高的天花板，GAN模型从原理上本质上是机器对人的模仿，而扩散模型 则更像是机器学会“成为一个人”。Sora基本框架：基于OpenAI大语言模型 思路， Sora采用Transformer架构（ 主流视频生成扩散模型较多采用 U-Net 架构 ），同时开发视频压缩网络有效减小 Tr ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "outperforming the market" for the pharmaceutical sector, indicating expected returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 10% over the next six months [1][22]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index rising by 10.31% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.48 percentage points [1][7]. - The report highlights significant advancements in GLP-1 drug development, particularly in weight management, with notable sales figures from Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide reaching $5.339 billion in 2023 [1][14]. - The report suggests a short-term rebound in the pharmaceutical sector due to previous declines, recommending stocks that have experienced significant drops for potential recovery [1][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index ranked first among 31 primary industries this week, with a monthly increase of 6.4%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.75 percentage points [7][9]. - Sub-sectors such as other biological products, vaccines, and medical consumables performed well, with weekly changes of 14.53%, 14.3%, and 12.83% respectively [1][10]. Clinical Progress and Announcements - Iovance's TIL therapy received accelerated approval from the FDA for treating advanced melanoma, marking a milestone in cell therapy [14]. - Roche's Crovalimab injection was approved for use in patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria, providing a new treatment option [14]. - The first GLP-1R/GCGR dual agonist, Masitide, has had its new drug application accepted in China, targeting long-term weight management [14]. Investment Strategy - Short-term: The report suggests that the pharmaceutical sector is poised for a rebound, recommending stocks that have seen significant declines, such as Tiantan Biological and Zhizhi Biological [1][20]. - Long-term: The sector is viewed as being in a bottoming phase, with stable demand and an improving industry ecosystem. The report favors innovative drugs and devices as key growth areas [1][20]. Notable Companies - Top gainers this week include Rongchang Biological, Anke Biological, and Taiji Group, with increases of 28.24%, 24.97%, and 24.94% respectively [11]. - Conversely, companies like Changyao Holdings and Jingfeng Pharmaceutical saw significant declines, with drops of -28.85% and -26.20% respectively [11]. Mergers and Acquisitions - Gilead announced a cash acquisition of Cymabay Therapeutics for $4.3 billion, aiming to enhance its pipeline with a PPARδ agonist [15]. - Catalent entered a $16.5 billion acquisition agreement with Novo Holdings, which includes the purchase of three filling plants to boost production capacity [16]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of innovative drugs and the overall stability of the pharmaceutical market, suggesting a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential [1][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ), Runze Technology (300442.SZ), and Xinyi Technology (300502.SZ) [1] Core Insights - The release of OpenAI's Sora model on February 16, 2024, is expected to significantly enhance demand for communication networks due to its ability to generate realistic and imaginative videos from text prompts [1] - The Sora model can produce videos up to 60 seconds long, featuring detailed backgrounds and emotionally rich characters, showcasing advanced capabilities in understanding physical existence and generating complex scenes [1] - The model's development is based on the DALL·E 3 technology and utilizes Transformer architecture, leading to unprecedented performance in video generation [1] Summary by Sections Event Analysis - OpenAI's Sora model demonstrates a breakthrough in AI video generation, capable of creating multiple characters and complex scenes with emotional depth [1] - The model can fill in missing frames in existing videos and generate high-resolution images up to 2048x2048 pixels [1] Market Implications - The report suggests that the rapid advancement in AI capabilities will drive upgrades in hardware, particularly in network equipment, to support increased computational demands [2] - Recommended companies to watch include ZTE Corporation, Unisplendour, and others involved in computing infrastructure and connectivity [2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the acceleration of AI infrastructure investments will lead to significant advancements in the communication sector, particularly in high-bandwidth and low-latency solutions [2]

2024年02月19日 行业研究●证券研究报告 消费电子设备 行业快报 眼动追踪有望回归 ，规模或超百亿美元 Quest 同步大市-A维持 投资评级 投资要点 首选股票 评级 眼动追踪技术路线均基于眼球生理结构实现，瞳孔角膜反射法为最普遍技术。 眼动追踪技术原理是利用传感捕获、提取眼球特征信息，测量眼睛的运动情况， 估计视线方向或眼睛注视点位置，预测用户的状态和需求，并进行响应和交互。 一年行业表现 整个技术研究的三大方向是眼球的注视点看向哪里、何时看、看多久，从而去捕 捉用户情绪。所有的眼动追踪技术都是根据眼球的生理结构实现的，不同的眼动 追踪技术会用到不同的眼球生理特征。目前瞳孔角膜反射法最为普遍，通过低功 率主动近红外照射人眼，使用传感阵列捕捉近红外图像，处理近红外信号获得眼 部特征，估算注视方向、注视点。在瞳孔-角膜反射技术路径中，最重要就是找 到两束光：视网膜反射光（从瞳孔射出）& 角膜反射光（标示眼睛和光源的空 间关系）。实际的数据采集过程中，眼动仪的图形传感器通过识别瞳孔与虹膜的 色差来捕捉瞳孔位置。通过明瞳追踪（识别暗色虹膜的亮色瞳孔，在暗光环境下 资料来源：聚源 效果较好，适合于浅色瞳孔） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the electric equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Views - The report highlights the strategic partnership between BorgWarner and BYD's FinDreams Battery, which will enhance the production of blade batteries for commercial vehicles [9]. - In 2023, the installed capacity of power batteries in China reached 395.84 GWh, with CATL holding a market share of 43% [9]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the lithium battery industry as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, suggesting potential valuation recovery for the sector [26]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - BorgWarner announced a strategic partnership with BYD's FinDreams Battery to produce blade batteries for commercial vehicles [9]. - In 2023, CATL's installed capacity was 170.57 GWh (43% market share), followed by BYD's 107.26 GWh (27% market share) [9]. - The report expects a decrease in domestic lithium carbonate production to approximately 32,000 tons in February, a 22.9% month-on-month decline [26]. New Energy Power Generation - The report notes that in 2023, China's newly installed wind power capacity reached 75.9 million kW, a 102% year-on-year increase [27]. - It predicts that by the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy power generation will exceed that of coal power for the first time [27]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like LONGi Green Energy and Trina Solar for investment opportunities in the solar sector [27]. Energy Storage and Power Equipment - In 2023, major power generation companies completed investments of 967.5 billion yuan in power source projects, a 30.1% increase year-on-year [29]. - The report emphasizes the need for increased investment in smart grid construction, with expectations for total investment to exceed 500 billion yuan in 2024 [29]. - It highlights the establishment of a unified pricing mechanism for auxiliary services in the power market, effective from March 1, 2024 [29].